Racing Chat Saturday15th May

[yossa6133]

7:20 Uttox, Hills priced this up early and have Wye Aye at 4/1, which seems generous if you can get on with them! Won last 2 chases doing handsprings despite not really settling last time at Newcastle. Back over hurdles off 107 (rated 120 over fences now, and last racing post rating was 124). Doesn't always work out switching back to hurdles but obvious chance if adapting.

[The Brigadier]

An interesting days racing and here’s my thoughts on the days ITV televised races in chronological order:-

 

1.50 Newbury

The ground was on the definite soft side on Friday and with more showers forecast it wouldn’t be the greatest shock were the ground to ride quite testing today. Andrew Balding is in terrific form and his Tactical looks the most likely winner here dropping back in trip having won the Free Handicap over 7f last time. My concern with him is the fact that he flopped a couple of times as a juvenile on soft ground and under a 3lb penalty I’m against him. The obvious threat to him is the Godolphin runner Creative Force who’s won two Newmarket handicaps this season, both on fast ground and he too has questions to answer on this ground. I’ll take on the pair of them with last years Super Sprint winner at the track in Richard Hannon’s Happy Romance who although not ideally suited by soft ground himself just may get away with it here and at the prices is a tentative selection.

 

HAPPY ROMANCE 1 point win @ 6/1 Paddy Power

 

2.05 Newmarket

Ed Dunlops’s superbly bred John Leeper, one of my 20 to follow, for the season was ultra impressive on his re-appearance at Newcastle when well supported. He was way back at half way and came through to make some nice horses from big yards looked like selling platers. This is a big step up in class but with breeding of Frankel out of Snow Fairy he was always going to be fast tracked into pattern company. His future entries tell you how much his connections rate him as he is entered in the English and Irish Derbies, Coral Eclipse as well as the King Edward VII stakes at Royal Ascot. Named after the trainers illustrious father John he can put himself in the frame for some bigger targets by taking this. I’m hoping his price will drift as he seems rather too short currently compared with the likes of 106 rated Chester Vase third Fancy Man and Tasman Bay who’s Newbury third to Dante winner Hurricane Lane  and Dee Stakes runner up Maximal looking top form.

 

JOHN LEEPER 2 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

2.25 Newbury

Al Aasy was mightily impressive when running away with the Group 3 John Porter Stakes on his re-appearance when well backed. He’s got winning form on soft ground and will be hard to beat here. His main danger is the 2019 St Leger winner Logistic but things haven’t gone to plan for him since and by all accounts has plenty of issues. He’s also got an absence to overcome and I’m just hoping that he does run here (there’s rumours that he will miss this if further rain arrives) as he will make the market for the exciting William Haggas trained selection. Hes the days Nap bet.

 

AL AASY 4 points win @ Evens William Hill

 

2.40 Newmarket

Sometimes in racing you see a horse that blows you away and you just know that you’ve seen a quality racehorse. Such was the case when Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Awtaad filly made her debut at the Craven meeting here. She scooting clear coming out of the dip to put 7 lengths between herself and the remainder. That form hasn’t worked out particularly well but you can only win what’s in front of you and her shrewd trainer was very complimentary about her afterwards. She’s been given some fancy future entries recently and can take this race en route to Group company.

 

BELLOSA 3 points win @ 7/4 William Hill

 

3.00 Newbury

The London Gold Cup has thrown up many decent future Group performers in the past including Defoe, Headman, Al Kazeem and Time Test. This years renewal looks well up to standard with plenty of promising three year olds. None more so than the Sir Michael Stoute trained Bay Bridge who impressed when running away with a 5 runner novice stakes event at Newcastle in April (well beaten 3rd won handicap since). He’s been allotted a mark of 90 and that could be very attractive. Interestingly he’s the only horse in the field of 11 who has a future group entry. He was put in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot only a fortnight ago, surely a tip in itself. There are plenty of potential dangers from big stables but I’m sticking with the Ryan Moore ridden colt.

 

BAY BRIDGE 3 points win @ 4/1 Betfred

 

Newmarket 3.15

A competitive 17 runner handicap over 6 furlongs that is always worth following. A confident selection is the Eve Johnson Houghton trained Jumby who went into plenty of trackers when desperately unlucky when failing to find a run in a decent handicap over course and distance won by Creative Force at the Craven meeting back in April. He can run off of the same mark here and with William Buick taking over from Charlie Bishop looks sure to run a massive race. His recent Group 1 entry in the Commonwealth Cup augurs well for the future and although favourite he can take this. Bickerstaffe is the other runner here who has a future Group entry (Commonwealth Cup) and maybe the best of the rest.

 

JUMBY 3 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

3.35 Newbury

This year’s Lockinge has attracted a decent field of 12 and a very short favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained Palace Pier who will be hard to beat but is priced accordingly at around the 4/6 mark. He should win but with Paddy Power paying 4 places at a fifth the odds it’s worth picking one to play each way. With the ground riding on the slow side its maybe worth a speculative small stakes each way bet on the Simon & Ed Crisford trained Century Dream who’s two from three at the track, loves the mud and has won first time up before . On official ratings he actually only has 9lb to find with the warm favourite and can be backed at a decent price. If it did rain further overnight I would be inclined to back him in the ‘without fav’ market each way as he does look overpriced especially if the ground went very soft. James Doyle rides.

 

CENTURY DREAM 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234

1 point each way (without Palace Pier market) 11/1 1/5 odds 123 Bet365