Racing Chat - Sunday 18th April

[The Brigadier]

It’s always an exciting day when the end of the National Hunt season overlaps with the beginning of the flat and Sunday is one such day with the Scottish National at Ayr and the Greenham meeting at Newbury overlapping, a day later than planned due to the funeral of The Duke Of Edinburgh.

 

There’s 10 televised races on terrestrial television and here’s my thoughts on those:-

 

Newbury 100

The two principals here are Enable’s half brother Derab, trained obviously by the father and son team of John and Thady Gosden and Snow Lantern trained by local trainer Richard Hannon who is also bred in the purple being by Frankel out of Sky Lantern, a multiple group winner for Hannon including the 1000 Guineas .

Both showed up well on their one run as a juvenile finishing runner up achieving a RPR within 2lb of each other. They're probably won’t be much between them but I do believe that Derab can be a bit quirky so I’ll go with Snow Lantern to take this and put herself in line for a tilt at a classic.

 

SNOW LANTERN 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Ayr 1.15

Theinval ran respectively on Friday here and it wouldn’t be a shock if he was to improve for that effort and run a lot better in a race he won three years ago off of a 8lb higher mark. Age may just be catching up with him though now as he’s an eleven year old. Dan and Harry Skelton are in irresistible form at present and their runner King D’argent will be hard to beat here. He’s won 3 of his 4 starts over fences and has to shoulder a 9lb rise for his Warwick win 19 days ago. He’s improving and can step up again.

 

KING D’ARGENT 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

Newbury 1.35

The John Porter is run over 1m 4f of the Berkshire course and to my eyes despite 9 runners going to post looks a sub standard renewal. I can’t have second favourite Deja who is a real mudlark and won’t have his conditions to suit today. Favourite and well supported all week (he was as big as 7/1 on Tuesday) is the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who will take plenty of beating. He has plenty of scope to progress into a decent group performer this season and by all accounts his gallop form at Newmarket this Spring has been exemplary. I make him the nap bet of the day.

 

AL AASY 4 points win @ 6/4 Boylesports

 

Ayr 1.50

Christian Williams has done wonders with his Five Star Getaway winning 3 of his 4 chase starts rising a staggering 41lb in the weights. He’s up 15lb for his latest win at Haydock but he won so well that it may not be enough to halt his progress. Jack Tudor ride him at Haydock and his 3lb claim maybe invaluable again. The Irish dominated at Cheltenham and Aintree and their sole representative in this race Pilbara trained by Emmet Mullins looks a big danger receiving 10lb from the selection.

 

FIVE STAR GETAWAY 2 points  wins @ 9/2 Bet365

 

 

Newbury 2.10

The Fred Darling may throw some light on the first classic as a trial for the 1000 Guineas in a couple of weeks time. The form horse is Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free who won the group one Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and steps up a furlong today, which shouldn’t be an issue at all. There are several improvers waiting to have a crack at her though and one I believe who may be up to running a big race is Roger Varian’s Zaajirah who impressed when winning a Kempton novices’ stakes last Autumn. That form is just ok but it was the style of her performance that impressed me and the vibes are positive from Newmarket. She may be the value each way bet here. One of my 20 to follow for the season Miss Finland makes her re-appearance here and it will be interesting to see how she fares.

 

ZAAJIRAH 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ayr 2.25

Dan and Harry Skelton can double up with their handicap debutant Calico who has won two novice hurdles on soft ground at Ludlow and Warwick this season but his best effort actually came in defeat on good ground at Kempton when chasing home Emmet Mullin’s Cape Gentleman in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle in February. His mark of 139 looks workable and he looks sure to run well. Milkwood ran a stormer in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham to finish third and looks a threat along with Irish challenger Anna Bunina.

 

CALICO 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 245

The Greenham Stakes looks a hot race with the form horse being Richard Hannon’s Chindit. He brings the best form to the table winning three times as a juvenile culminating in a heavy defeat in the Dewhurst Stakes on soft ground. Back on a sounder surface he looks the one to beat. On the same official mark is the Marcus Tregoning trained Alkumait who also bombed out in the Dewhurst and has stamina to prove here. John & Thady Gosden’s Fundamental will be fit having won at Chelmsford recently and looks sure to run well here each way but I’ll stick with Hannon’s Chindit.

 

CHINDIT 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Ayr 3.00

Allmankind has to prove his stamina at 2 miles and also has to put a slightly disappointing effort in the Arkle at Cheltenham behind him. He’s opposable today. Paul Nicholl’s has had his team in excellent shape all season and his Tamaroc Du Mathan missed Cheltenham due to soft ground and today’s conditions look ideal for him. It was interesting that the trainer made him his best bet of the day in his excellent Betfair column yesterday and he’ll do for me.

 

TAMAROC DU MATHAN 2 points win @ 15/8 Bet365

 

Newbury 3.20

A wide open renewal of the Spring Cup with the two favourites Danyah, who ran 4th in the Lincoln and Troll Peninsula who is making his handicap debut here having looked good when winning at Kempton in March. It wouldn’t be a shock if either was to win this especially the latter but I’ll take a chance with the Richard Spencer trained Revich who missed the break in the Lincoln but ran on to such effect that he finished 6th just one length behind Danyah and is around 4 times the price of that rival. Apprentice Angus Villiers is good value for his 5lb claim and with plenty of firms paying enhanced place terms I’ll take a chance with him small each way with a win only bet on the Varian improver.

 

REVICH 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 William Hills 1/5th 12345

TROLL PENINSULA 1 point win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Ayr 3.35

The Scottish National looks as open as ever and my short list comprises Notachance, Mister Fogpatches and Soldier Of Love. The latter would be my main play in the race, trained by Paul Nicholls he appears to have been trained for the race and will love the drying ground. Some of his early season novice form on good ground ties in with some smart sorts including NH Chase winner at Cheltenham Galvin. Harry Cobden injured himself a fortnight ago and is sitting out the season end so James Bowen comes in for the ride which is certainly no negative. Irish challenger Mister Fogpatches creeps in on 10 stone at the bottom of the weights and his recent 4th has been boosted by the 2nd bolting up in the Topham Chase since. Danny Mullins is an interesting jockey booking.

 

SOLDIER OF LOVE (below on right) 1 point each way @ 15/2 Bet365 1/4 12345

MISTER FOGPATCHES 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/4 12345

 

 

[Villa Chris]

Scottish National 

Mighty Thunder 11/1 ew

The bet was put on yesterday, and is only 8/1 now with sky bet . I did put him up yesterday in another thread at 11/1.