Racing Chat - Saturday 27th February

[The Brigadier]

For the first time in months it looks likely that the ground will ride on the good side at Kempton and that makes the whole card very interesting although it’s back to the norm of soft ground at Newcastle. Here’s my thoughts on the Terrestrial TV races.

 

150 Kempton

A disappointing turnout for the Pendil Novices’ Chase with 3lb penalties to be carried by the top two Coole Cody and Ga Law. It’s the latter that appeals to me. Jamie Snowden’s 5 year old is a fast and efficient jumper who’s impressed in winning his first three chases on good or good to firm ground. His most impressive effort came when winning the ‘Rising Stars’ novices’ Chase at Wincanton in November. He was only third on his latest start but that was over 2 miles and on soft ground, neither which play to his strengths. The two that beat him that day were Allmankind and Hitman so it wasn’t a bad run by any means.

The big danger will be Paul Nicholl’s Tamaroc Du Mathan who tried to make a race of it with Shishkin at Kempton over Christmas but couldn’t live with that star ending up a respectable 13 length second. At today’s weights there’s nothing between him and Ga Law but preference with conditions to suit has to be with the latter. Son Of Camas is up against it here at the weights whilst Coole Cody may have had his day in the sun as such when winning the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Cheltenham off of a low weight last November.

 

GA LAW 2 points win @ 15/8 Paddy Power

 

205 Lingfield

A 5f sprint listed event with a small field of only seven declared.

Likely favourite is Moss Gill who’s best run last year was when third to Battash in the Group 1 Nonthorpe  at York. Obviously on that run he wins this but this will be a totally different ball game on the poly track racing around bends. He’s yet to race here but his all weather form figures read 221. He’s the most likely winner but I’ll take him on from a value point of view with the Robert Cowell trained Rocket Action who’s all weather form figures read 1212114 although he has yet to race here at this Surrey track. He’s a speedy type and the booking of Hollie Doyle catches the eye (Cowell also runs Blue De Vega with Ray Dawson in the saddle who is unable to claim here).

 

ROCKET ACTION 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

2.25 Kempton

The Adonis juvenile hurdle, a grade 2 race which can sometimes throw up a good one (Zarkandar won it back in 2011 and went on to win the Triumph Hurdle two weeks later).

The short price favourite here is Tritonic, trained by Alan King and owned by Max McNeill. He’s very good on the flat with an official rating of 99 where he ran some solid races including when just been touched off in a 1m 4f handicap at Royal Ascot. He made his hurdling debut at Ascot last month and although not impressing everyone picked up well from the last showing a willing attitude to go and pick up Casa Loupi (who re-opposes here) by a length. He’s been aimed at the Triumph Hurdle and if he were to impress expect his 12/1 odds to tumble. Honneur D’Ajonc may have had to battle with Heross De Seuil when crashing at the last at Kempton over Christmas but that one hardly advertised the form when getting turned over at odds on on Friday. Hugo Merienne is a French trainer who sends over his unbeaten gelding Margaret’s Legacy and is hard to assess although both her wins in France came on very soft ground so I’m not sure how she will handle this sounder surface.

It all points to Tritonic and he’s a confident selection here.

 

TRITONIC 2 points win @ 5/4 William Hill

 

240 Lingfield

The Betway Winter Derby with Group 3 status has attracted a small but select group of 10 furlong specialists.

The trial was run over course and distance three weeks ago when in a muddling affair Felix came late to master Forest Of Dean by a head but not late enough to beat Bangkok who misses this as he ran in the Saudi Cup last Saturday finishing 8th beaten the best part of 20 lengths but picking up a staggering £292k. This race is worth £30k to the winner. You can understand why he travelled over now!

There shouldn’t be much between Felix and Forest of Dean today although this is the latter’s third run back now from a long absence and having been beaten a length and then a head by Felix maybe ready to turn the tables on his old foe. Johnny Drama is the highest rated horse in the race but his trainer has voiced reservations about the suitability of the track so is over looked though he does  seem a big price at around 11/2 with Ryan Moore on top.

The improver in the race though is the only 4 year old, Roger Varian’s Father Of Jazz who following on from a promising debut run for Michael Bell was transferred to the Carlburg Newmarket stables of Varian and has impressively won all three of his starts. All at odds on and all in blistering style. He is hard to assess but Callum Shepherd has ridden him on all his victories this season and on official ratings is only 8lb behind the top rated Johnny Drama. It would be no shock we’re he to win but at around 13/8 is no value and my token investment would go to John Gosden, who’s won this the last two years with Wissahickon and Dubai Warrior, and his 5 year old Forest Of Dean.

 

FOREST OF DEAN 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

3.00 Kempton

 

The 2 mile Dovecote novice’s hurdle is a grade 2 event. This season’s renewal may go to the Paul Nicholls trained Atholl Street who is already proven on good ground as one of his two Taunton victories this season was gained on unseasonably good ground there in November in good style. He followed up back at the Somerset track the following month, landing the odds in emphatic style. He has a Supreme Novice Hurdle entry at Cheltenham in a fortnights time and could easily gate crash the party if impressing here.

Dan Skelton is in terrific form and he saddles Calico here, a winner at Ludlow on heavy ground in January on his hurdling debut. That form has not worked out and the ground will be totally different here.

Irish challenger Cape Gentleman has to put a very disappointing effort at the Dublin Racing Festival behind him having looked a decent prospect when winning on his hurdles debut at Punchestown in December.

There are also question marks over the ground for Pyramid Place, who is stepping up in grade and Lunar Sovereign who’s two recent victories have been gained on much slower ground.

With less questions to answer than his opponents Atholl Street is the selection.

 

ATHOLL STREET 2 point win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

315 Newcastle

A wide open renewal of the Vertem Eider Handicap Chase with a stamina sapping 4 miles 1f 56 yards of the North East’s track to be negotiated on likely soft ground.

Last years winner Cross Park is back to defend his title but will have to do it 15lb higher than last year. Sam’s Adventure was well backed to beat Cheltenham hopeful Royale Pagaille last time at Haydock only to unseat at the 12th before they had really got racing. Like many in these contest he has to prove his stamina.

Another stepping up in distance is Hampshire trainer Paul Henderson’s Crossley Tender who is a model of consistency having finished in the frame in his last seven outings. He’s yet to race beyond 3 miles and his trainer hasn’t had a winner for 28 runs and 47 days so stakes should be kept small but he rarely runs a bad race and maybe worth a small ew investment in an open race.

 

CROSSLEY TENDER 1/2 point each way @ 15/2 Bet Victor 1/5 1234

 

335 Kempton

A wide open renewal of the Close brothers Handicap Chase ( formerly the Racing Post Chase) with 18 declared and currently the bookmakers betting 13/2 the field.

A case can be made for plenty with top weight Black Corton a pound lower than when going off 5/1 favourite last year and only finding Mister Malarkey too good. The latter is back for another go but is 8lb higher than then and effectively 9lb worse off with Black Corton and Bryony Frost for two lengths.

Aso is 3lb well in here for his hard fought second placing behind Two For Gold at Warwick 11 days ago and there are worse 20/1 shots than him racing today.

Alan King’s Talkischeap is being trained for the Grand National and is over looked whilst Clondaw  Castle has to prove his stamina at 3 miles though will enjoy the better ground.

Favourite Cap Du Nord is also being aimed at the Grand National and may have to win here to get a penalty to guarantee a run so will no doubt be off for his life. He’s run well all season, won’t mind the drying ground and has to be on any short list.

If you like him then you can easily make a case for Chris Gordon’s Mellow Ben who was third beaten only 4 1/2 lengths by him at Newbury and is a whopping 16lb better today. He likes the ground and can run well at a price.

The one I’m taking a chance on though is Olly Murphy’s The Butcher Said who has had another wind operation since we last saw him when he travelled like a dream in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster only to weaken from the third last to end up well beaten in 6th at the line. He actually traded at 7/4 in that race so well was he travelling and with his wind done and the ground much better here he could out run his odds and give his trainer Max McNeill, who owns Tritonic, an afternoon to remember. His form figures on good ground read 211111216 and although he comes with his well documented wind problem I can see him running well and certainly travelling well with hopefully him seeing his race out.

 

THE BUTCHER SAID  (below) 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 12345 Paddy Power

[Villa Chris]

Newcastle 3.15 

Crossley Tender 9/1 ew

Kempton 3.35

Double Shuffle 10/1 ew

The Butcher Said 11/1 ew 

 

 

•  

The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. 
 

Second went on to finish second again 

Third won next time up 

Fifth went on to finish second 

Sixth won next time up 

He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Villa Chris