Coral Welsh National -Boxing Day - Preview

[The Brigadier]

This Sunday, Boxing Day, sees Wale's Premier jumps race take place at Chepstow with no paying customers. One thing’s for sure the ground there will be close to un-raceable so 3m 6f on bottomless ground we’re going to need a true out and out stayer. 

The weights are headed by Paul Nicholl’s Yala Enki who ran third in this last year to Potters Corner who unfortunately is not back to defend his crown. He’s 4lb higher now and has hardly had the ideal prep in falling at the first in the Becher Chase at Aintree. Nicholls has also left in Truckers Lodge who was runner up last season on only his third ever chase start. He went on to win the Midlands Grand National over 4m 2f on heavy ground so I think it’s safe to say he’ll stay. He’s a player although he is 16lb higher than last season when he carried 10-2 whilst this year he’s likely to shoulder 11-8. 

David Pipe’s is likely to run his 8 year old Ramses De Teillee. He’s a consistent sort over both fences and hurdles but his latest effort in the Becher Chase was a poor one where he didn’t jump a fence and you’ld have to be very forgiving to fancy him too much. Pipe also has 24 length Becher Chase victor Vieux Lion Rouge here. He’s gone up 12lb for that and with just a 4lb penalty he’s 8lb well in. The big question with him is can he re-produce his excellent National form around a park track? I’m not entirely sure.

Another who flopped over the National fences last time is Lord Du Mesnil, this time in the Grand Sefton over an inadequate 2m 5f (dropped 2lb for that run but has to run off of old mark here). He stays very well as shown when runner up in last season’s NH Chase. 

Irish challenger Moyhenna has to prove his stamina and as it stands at the moment his participation has to be in doubt with the travel embargo.  

Venetia Williams is one of the first trainers you think of when you analyse a long distance chase in the mud and she has two entered. Cloudy Glen who was hit with a hefty 11lb rise for a cheeky 13 length win in the Southern National at Fontwell last month but has been soundly beaten at Sandown since off of his new mark and one wonders if the handicapper has hold of him now. Her other runner, Didero Vallis is also entered at Wetherby on Boxing Day in the Rowland Meyrick, a race he ran 2^nd in last season so his participation is also in doubt at this stage. 

Tom George’s Springfield Fox is a very interesting runner who has only had 7 rules runs (10 if you include his 3 wins between the flags).  The very easy winner of two novice handicap chases earlier in the year in heavy ground he has been hammered by the handicapper since  but you do get the feeling he’s been trained for this following a 2^nd in a novice hurdle here 3 weeks ago. Without doubt one for the short list. 

The Two Amigos was a credible 5^th in this last season and returns on the same mark. He was runner up to the favourite for this year’s re-newal in the Welsh National trial run over 6f shorter than the actual race itself three weeks ago here. He’s 4lb better off with Secret Reprieve but that may not be enough to bridge the gap.   

Evan William’s Secret Reprieve won the Trial here 3 weeks ago as just mentioned and picks up a 4lb penalty but the handicapper feels that win warranted a 12lb hike in the weights so he’s effectively 8lb well in. He’s obviously a big player and although he should stay he has yet to race beyond 3m in his short career (this is only his 9^th start). He’s a worthy favourite. Williams also has Prime Venture in the race who was 4^th last year and only broke his duck over fences in a 3 runner novices handicap chase at Sedgefield in November following 12 previous attempts. Raised 5lb for that he’s now 4lb higher than his placing last season. 

Lucinda Russell’s Big River has some smart back form at long trips in the mud but was well beaten on his re-appearance and doesn’t really appeal to me whilst rank outsider Alminar is 15lb wrong at the weights and is impossible to fancy, even for a place. 

Dominateur has a good record at this track (2311) and Oliver Sherwood’s 7 year old is lightly raced over fences. His only run beyond 3m was a well beaten 7^th (beaten 46l) in the Midland National (behind Truckers Tavern) so has to prove his stamina. 

Harry Fry has his team in fine shape (5 wins from his last 16 runs at 31%) and runs Captain Drake. He will have no stamina issues as he was 12l runner up to Truckers Tavern in last season’s Midlands National over 4m2f and can re-oppose on a stone better terms. He doesn’t appear to be in the same form this season mind. 

Rebecca Curtis’s Scottish National winner of 2018 Joe Farrell is back on the same mark but has shown nothing in three runs this season and may be being prepped for the Scottish version again next season. 

Colin Tizzard has a good record in this race winning it with classy types Native River and Elegant Escape in the last 4 years and relies upon the aptly named Christmas In April, a consistent stayer who likes the mud. He was last seen when chasing home Cloudy Dream in the Southern National at Fontwell in November. He’s 12lb better off for 13l on that run and also comes into the equation. 

Tom Symonds is having his best ever season and his Bobo Mac was third in the Trial three weeks ago, his first since wind surgery, he has a bit to find on that run although the longer trip should suit.

 

Summary:- 

Secret Reprieve is the right favourite coming here on the back of winning the trial over 2m 7f 22 days ago and now officially 8lb well in. He should stay but at the likely odds I’ld rather look elsewhere. Truckers Lodge stays for ever and ran so well in this last season that I can see him running well again the only issue is the fact he’s so much higher in the weights this time around. It takes a near Gold Cup horse to carry such a weight to victory like Synchronised (11-6) or Native River (11-12) and I don’t really see him as that class though he can hit the frame.  Vieux Lion Rouge is actually as well in (8lb) as Secret Reprieve but four times the price. I’m not entirely sure we can equate the National fences form to these at Chepstow though it wouldn’t be a shock were he to run well.

The one I want to be with though is Tom George’s (below) 7 year old the lightly raced Springfield Fox who was last seen running on Welsh National Trial day but not in the trial but in the novice hurdle on the card. An ideal prep you would of thought. He likes to be prominent and conditions look ideal. Trainer Tom George is struggling for winners at present but his team are running well enough not to be concerned. 

SPRINGFIELD FOX 1 point each way @ 9/1 1/5^th odds 1-2-3-4-5- Paddy Power

[Villa Chris]

Had a look at this race earlier on today, and the two that jump out to me are The Two Amigos, and Christmas In April. Truckers Lodge is another I like but I feel he may be vulnerable carrying 11’8 and being 14Ibs higher than his last win. No doubt he’ll stay well, but I’m going to be on the other two mentioned who are carrying a nice weight and tick a lot of boxes. 
 

The Two Amigos 14/1 ew

Christmas In April 11/1 ew