Racing Chat - Saturday 17th October

[Darran]

Saturday could well be the best ever day's racing in Australia given we have The Everest at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup, which features plenty of European interest. I have done a runner-by-runner guide for both races. 

Nature Strip - The world's best sprinter has been disappointing in both starts so far this prep, but there have been excuses. He has a shocking record 1st up so it wasn't a huge surprise that he was beaten by Gytrash. 2nd up he went back to his very keen ways which he looked to be over and it wasn't a big shock he faded badly. That was explained though by the fact he was found to have mucus on his lings after the race. His trainer his happy with him and if he is at his best last year's 4th is the one they all have to beat.

 

Trekking - Beat Gytrash in the Goodwood in May and was a good 2nd 1st up in the Moir at Moonee Valley over 1000m last month. Was a really good 3rd in this last year and he certainly seems in decent form given the merit of the run last time.

 

Classique Legend - Was 6th in this last year when not getting a great deal of luck and has come back looking an improved horse. He landed a Listed race in June here in really good fashion before returning last month to win the G2 Shorts. Again he looked good that day, but he was then beaten by Libertini in the Premiere over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He didn't get much cover that day though and I do think he can reverse that form now he has a better draw which should allow him to get some cover. He has a leading chance.

 

Santa Ana Lane - Has been a superb sprinter and was 2nd in this last year, but he just doesn't seem to be as good as he used to be and would be a surprise winner for me.

 

Behemoth - What a story this horse is given he only cost $6000 and is part of a syndicate whose members must be pretty excited. He was 4th behind Trekking in The Goodwood at Morphettville in May, but he was too far back in a big field that day and always had too much to do. This prep he is 3/3 including winning 2 G1's over 1400m at Caulfield. He will be charging late back down in trip and he could easily fill the frame given the form he's in, but I'm just not sure he will be quick enough to get there before they hit the post.

 

Bivouac - Won the G1 Newmarket at Flemington back in March, but that is a handicap and he has often finished behind most of these in WFA races including being 3rd in The Shorts to Classique Legend.

 

Gytrash - Is very consistent and landed the G1 Lightning at Flemington back in February. Was just denied by Trekking in The Goodwood and was locked into this race after that. That means that his prep could be built around this contest and he didn't have to try and run his way into a slot. Looked good in beating Nature Strip in the Concorde, but 1st up could have been the right time to catch him. Having said that he nearly always goes close and he is a player.

 

Eduardo - Is certainly progressing and showed some good form when winning twice at Rosehill including a G2. That came on a Heavy 9 track though and I just wonder if he needs it wet to be seen at his best. Was 2nd behind Classique Legend in The Shorts.

 

Dollar For Dollar - Looks outclassed in this field.

 

Tofane - A G1 winner over 1400m back in the autumn and I thought he was a bit unlucky at Flemington last time when he was only 5th as he didn't get much luck in running. I think over this level he would want a wet track.

 

Libertini - Has won half of her 10 career starts, but disappointed in the Autumn in 2 starts, but did finish lame in the Newmarket. Returned with a superb effort to win the Premiere beating Classique Legend by 2L as well as having Nature Strip in behind. If she backs that up is has a massive chance, but she has drawn badly in 12 and she is going to need luck from there.

 

Haut Brion Her - Has won 6 of her 10 starts and finished 2nd in 3 more. She is clearly good, but she hasn't been anywhere near this level yet and doubtful she can win this.

 

Verdict - I have to stick with Nature Strip. For me he is the best horse in the race and given his dire 1st up record and the fact he had mucus in his lungs last time means I can forgive him his two runs this prep. Classique Legend had a tough run last time and is drawn well here so should be able to get a kinder run. He looks the main danger. Gytrash never knows how to run a bad race and it is hard to see him not finish in the frame. Behemoth will be flying late and if the front runners are stopping he might well pick them up.

 

Nature Strip @ 4/1 with Bet365

 

Caulfield Cup

Anthony Van Dyck - Was slightly surprised to see last year's Derby winner on the plane to Australia, but it seems like Aidan is keen again to win the big Australian races. He has the best form in the race although was beating Stradivarius last time in a crawl really a top class effort? I'm not so sure. He has a terrible draw in 21 so Hugh is going to have to decide if he is going to go forward or take a pull and drop him out. I suspect he will do the former as there doesn't look a great deal of pace in the race. It would be no surprise if he won, but I want to take him on.

 

Avilius - The Avilius from last Autumn would have a huge chance, but he has been below that in his last 2 preps and his Melbourne form has always been poor so not for me.

 

Vow And Declare - A superb 2nd in this last year, before winning the big one at Flemington, but has not shown great form since and I can't have him matching last year's effort let alone go one place better.

 

Buckhurst - Never won over this far and did seem to be given a bit of a quiet run behind Tiger Moth last time so I wouldn't completely rule him out as I suspect the way a 2400m race is usually run in Australia is going to suit him.

 

Mirage Dancer - Loved his run in this last year when he was 3rd, but he was a bit keen in the Melbourne Cup and was only 14th although not beaten far. I don't think he really stays that far either. Had run some solid races in Australia after that, but topped the lot when beating Mugatoo in the Met at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I like that form as Mugatoo has been flying this prep and he's not out of this.

 

Mustajeer - Has got the odd bit of form since moving out here which would give him some sort of chance, but he was only 9th behind Mirage Dancer last time.

 

Verry Elleegant - A genuine G1 horse who was the one who chased Addeybb home in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Returned to land the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August which was some effort. She disappointed on her next start, but then bounced straight back when landing the G1 Turnbull last time on a quicker track than she usually favours. With rain around there should be some cut which is perfect for her and I think she has a big chance.

 

Dashing Willoughby - Did win a Listed Race over this trip at Newmarket in June, but not hard to think this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup.

 

Finche - Ran well in this last year when finishing 5th after finishing 2nd in the Turnbull which he was 3rd in this year. Was favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup as well when finishing 7th although only beaten just over a length. 3rd up he should be ready to peak and is one for the shortlist.

 

Prince Of Arran - Thrives so much in Australia I am surprised they don't keep him there. Sure to run well although he will be using this as a run to get him ready for the main one next month. 

 

Master Of Wine - Wasn't far behind Verry Elleegant last time and is weighted to beat her here. Is 1/1 over this trip and he has been getting better with every start this prep. Another one in with a chance.

 

The Chosen One - Well beaten by Chapada last week and hard to see him featuring.

 

Warning - Won the Victoria Derby last year over 2500m and caught the eye last time in the Turnbull when finishing 6th. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m and 200m splits in the race and is clearly crying out for this trip or further. The concern for me is the wide draw as he is surely going to have to settle nearer last than first and he is going to need plenty of luck in running if he is going to win. That is enough to put me off, but I think he is good enough to win.

 

Dalasan - Was 2nd to Russian Camelot and in front of Warning in the South Australian Derby in May. Has since run well over shorter trips and then finished a neck behind Verry Elleegant by a neck in the Turnbull. Is weighted to overturn that form and can see him running well again. His jockey William Pike is flying at the moment as well.

 

True Self - Don't think a great deal of her form in Ireland and the Ebor this season, but did finish 2nd in the Geelong Cup and won the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington after that. Does have a good draw, but has work to do for me.

 

Toffee Tongue - Was 2nd in the Turnbull and again another who at these weights could beat the winner. Has only actually won once in 12 starts although that was the G1 Australasian Oaks back in May. That is over 200m although she had run well over this trip before. If she repeats the last time run she isn't out of this.

 

Chapada - Did me a good turn last week when winning the Herbert Power, but this looks harder and even though he has a low weight and is in great form, I am not sure he is up to winning this.

 

Raheen House - Gets in as first emergency, but not really in good enough form to win this.

 

Verdict - I know those in behind Verry Elleegant last time are weighted to reverse the form, but I don't think they well and with the likelihood of a wet track that only enhances her chances.  As much as Anthony Van Dyck could win this if at his best I am happy to leave him out of the equation so my main dangers are Mirage Dancer, who looks overpriced, Finche is so consistent and gives Chris Waller a strong 2nd contender and Dalasan with William Pike looks to be building up to this. Master Of Wine, Warning (if overcoming the draw), Buckhurst and Toffee Tongue are just behind them as well.

 

Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Betfair

 

Mirage Dancer e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (William Hill 16/1 for 5 places)

 

Dalasan e/w @ 18/1 with Betfair (William Hill 12/1 for 5 places)

 

Finche e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (William Hill 9/1 for 5 places)

[richard-westwood]

Caulfield cup 

I really like the look of dalasan ....paddy power are offering 18/1 4 places  and that looks a good bet to me 10pts ew

.....also I like master of wine ...interesting jockey and 8/1 ew 4 places ... looks fair value in an open race ...10pts ew 

Dalasan and master of wine both ew