Tennis Betting System

[Smiles Tennis]

Hey all, first time here. I have spent a while analysing and testing a method that places an unmatched bet on Betfair on tennis matches. Most of the time it gets matched. It should hopefully produce some profit. 

I will try to post picks here for discussion. Clearly the exact method won't be shared unless it all fails. Then we can all pick at what went wrong and where I was being stupid. 

I will def post results here, as that can be done at any time. As it takes time to make selections, I can't always get them up in time, but can probably post a screenshot of the spreadsheet for picks when completed. 

There are many bets most days. 

Today is the first day using real money.  Just over £1000 bank. Attached are today's picks in my spreadsheet, with two left to play. Commission not accounted for on the spreadsheet.

Back Coria v Lorenzi @ 2.5. Savannah Challenger ATP

Back J.P Smith v Ofner @3.2. Puerto Vallarta Challenger ATP

I have been using 1% stakes apart from the first bet in the spreadsheet where I started with 2% then changed my mind and though 1% would be better. 

Maybe some of you guys will follow along for interest. My missus hates me talking betting and tennis so need somewhere to spout off about it lol. Hence I found this forum. I hope it interests some of you. Also attached is my P&L to show I made these bets genuinely. 

 

 

 

[Smiles Tennis]

Having just read the rules to the Betting Systems thread, I will give a bit more info. I am new here so didn't read it at first as I put my original post in the tennis thread. 

The system basically takes years worth of data for results and compares it to how it should have performed according to what the market predicted (start price). If something is overperforming or underperforming according to historical results, then the player is either a back or their opponent is. 

The bet is then placed roughly 40/50 ticks higher than their current price when I check the data and make the selections, in the hope they will drift that far, be matched, then win. You can watch the match and just bet in play if they reach a higher odds than listed, but I like not having to follow so many matches so I place the bet and leave it. 

I am hoping their SP is value due to the algorithm indicating it is, but with an extra 40/50 ticks, the value will be increased. Time will tell. 

As for the last two bets remaining for the day, Coria is currently a set up and hasn't been matched. Smith has already drifted pre-match and been matched so no need to wait for in play on that one.