Non-League Predictions > December 18th

[Darran]

Two poor Saturday's on the trot which is disappointing, but hopefully like last Tuesday we can get some of it back again.

Havant & Waterlooville v Dover

I was surprised by the team Dover put out on Saturday as they rested quite a few players and they were lucky to get a replay scoring a 2nd very late on. I put Dover up as a bet for the Trophy, but clearly it doesn't seem a priority. They might play a stronger team here as it might be viewed as playing 90 minutes is better than training, but I think Havant are worth backing as they should win this if Dover put out the same side they did on Saturday and at least it covers the outright bet. 

Maidenhead v Oxford City

This game might not go ahead as the pitch was clearly in a right mess for the game to be called off after 75 minutes. City were 1 up and looking like being my only winner of the day on Saturday and they are only a little shorter than the best price available on Saturday so it seems worth backing them again as the reasons from Saturday are obviously the same as for Tuesday night.

Dorchester v Swindon Supermarine and Stratford v Coalville

Swindon do come into the game against Dorchester on the back of a 5-2 win over Basingstoke, but Dorchester continued their superb recent form by beating Eastbourne 4-0 in the FA Trophy on Saturday. That is a hell of a performance and things are really clicking for them right now as I pointed out last week. Swindon's away form is not great as they have lost 4 of their last 5 away league games and the only thing stopping Dorchester winning this is if their is a hangover from Saturday's win, but I think it will mean confidence is high and they will want to carry on their superb form. Stratford are another team in great form and they have lost just one league game in their last 10 and they have won 7 of those. Granted they were stuffed by Fylde in the Trophy on Saturday, but Fylde put out a strong side so their is nothing to be ashamed of with that result. Coalville had a tough game as well as they went to now top of the table Stourbridge and lost 4-2. That made it 3 away league defeats out of 4 games for them and it will be tough for them to get anything out of a bang in form Stratford. Both these sides are around even money so it makes sense to do the double which pays around 3/1 with Marathon.

Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 59/50 with Marathon

Oxford City 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor

Dorchester/Stratford 1pt double at 2.98/1 with Marathon

[Bukic]

Het @Darran  what about match from  National League North? Odds are dropping for Stockport away to Ashton. I see Ashton i s really bad 4 loses in row (1 in FAT 0-5 with Boston Utd) and they have also 0 goals scored in last 3 matches.. While Stockport are in better form.

[Darran]

1 hour ago, Bukic said:

Het @Darran  what about match from  National League North? Odds are dropping for Stockport away to Ashton. I see Ashton i s really bad 4 loses in row (1 in FAT 0-5 with Boston Utd) and they have also 0 goals scored in last 3 matches.. While Stockport are in better form.

They should win but the price has gone for me although couldn't put anyone off sticking them in with Dorchester now the other games have been called off.

[allthethings]

Taken X in Salford-Gateshead at 3.55. Seems kind of a high price...matches between sides in different leagues typically get priced this way.

[Darran]

A rare team news bet as Salford have made 6 changes from their last league game so it seems they aren't overly bothered if they win tonight or not. Gateshead are 37/10 with Marathon and that looks value to me so is well worth a point.

[allthethings]

I've also taken Aldershot to score at 2.05. Ridiculous that the line on this match is -3 for Bedford. They may be youth players, but the Shots will have 11 men out there. Let's say lads. Anyway, Bedford are being treated as if they are a number of rungs higher than they are.

[allthethings]

Ah...ha ha ha

[Darran]

2 hours ago, allthethings said:

I've also taken Aldershot to score at 2.05. Ridiculous that the line on this match is -3 for Bedford. They may be youth players, but the Shots will have 11 men out there. Let's say lads. Anyway, Bedford are being treated as if they are a number of rungs higher than they are.

If you had done some research on how good the Aldershot academy is then it really was a forgone conclusion as the betting suggested it would be

[allthethings]

19 minutes ago, Darran said:

If you had done some research on how good the Aldershot academy is then it really was a forgone conclusion as the betting suggested it would be

Well, there ya go, the public was right then. Shots' odds on the match went from 1.8 to 9.3. Ridiculous. Crazy.

Anyway, I didn't take them at 9.3, and I didn't take a +3 goal handi. I took them to score. Once.

[Darran]

11 hours ago, allthethings said:

Well, there ya go, the public was right then. Shots' odds on the match went from 1.8 to 9.3. Ridiculous. Crazy.

Anyway, I didn't take them at 9.3, and I didn't take a +3 goal handi. I took them to score. Once.

They couldn’t score against a university team in the county cup so not a surprise they failed against a senior team. I’ve not seen anything like it and people were backing them as if they couldn’t lose and didn’t care what price they took. I was just explaining why they prices were as they were. After not backing them on Sunday as I should have done and then not seeing the team news straight away I missed out and just couldn’t bring myself to back them at  odds on.

[allthethings]

5 hours ago, Darran said:

They couldn’t score against a university team in the county cup so not a surprise they failed against a senior team. I’ve not seen anything like it and people were backing them as if they couldn’t lose and didn’t care what price they took. I was just explaining why they prices were as they were. After not backing them on Sunday as I should have done and then not seeing the team news straight away I missed out and just couldn’t bring myself to back them at  odds on.

I saw they had five corners or something. Doesn't appear Bedford ever took their foot off the accelerator though. Too bad.

[Darran]

1 hour ago, allthethings said:

I saw they had five corners or something. Doesn't appear Bedford ever took their foot off the accelerator though. Too bad.

The thing is though it was men against boys and it sounds like footballing wise they matched them, but if you are 16/17 you are always going to struggle against men at this level despite the 3 league gap. It's worrying for Aldershot though that they did lose so heavily because it suggests there might not be a great deal of talent coming through and we now know why none of them made the bench on Saturday.

[allthethings]

21 minutes ago, Darran said:

The thing is though it was men against boys and it sounds like footballing wise they matched them, but if you are 16/17 you are always going to struggle against men at this level despite the 3 league gap. It's worrying for Aldershot though that they did lose so heavily because it suggests there might not be a great deal of talent coming through and we now know why none of them made the bench on Saturday.

Off-topic, but not too long ago, went up against a team of all 17- and 18-year-olds in a rec league game and just got unmercifully hammered. We (ages 18 to 55) scored one but were a step behind throughout.

[Darran]

8 minutes ago, allthethings said:

Off-topic, but not too long ago, went up against a team of all 17- and 18-year-olds in a rec league game and just got unmercifully hammered. We (ages 18 to 55) scored one but were a step behind throughout.

I would imagine at that sort of level though that it might favour the younger legs. As much as Bedford are a Step 4 side they are clearly a decent one and got a replay against the 1st team of Aldershot which is a decent effort even allowing for the fact they had a lot of injuries.