2018 Cesarewitch H'Cap - Tips & Trends

[BillyHills]

3:40 Newmarket 13 OCT 2018

2m2f (Row) Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110)

 

Previous Winners

 

 

8/10 Ran within 36 days
8/10 Carried less than 9st
7/10 Rated less than 90
8/10 Aged between 4-7
7/10 Drawn in double figures
14/20 Placed in first 4 last time
15/20 ran at least 3 times this season
17/20 had won at 2m or more previously
 

3:15York  13 OCT 2018

6f Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

 

Previous Winners

 

9/10 Ran within 21 days
8/10 Aged 6 or less
8/10 Rated between 96 and 105
7/10 Carried 9st or more
17/21 had ran at least 5 times
19/21 Had won at 6f
8 previous winners came from Ascot Challenge Cup or Ayr Gold/Silver Cup.
 

[richard-westwood]

Where do you start with a race so huge and competitive ....well for me this race is just a bigger longer version of arc......and if I was riding in it if want to be drawn lowish...to get good early position and avoid traffic problems ....preferably as near to inside rail as possible so as to minimise distance ran and maintain energy reserves at business end .......so ...for starters in interests of finding good bets I'm only going to consider bottom let's say 14 draws and be generous .....that  chops 20 horses leaving ....

1 it's a free bee

2 just in time 

3 the Glasgow warrior 

4 cliffs of Dover 

5 melinoe 

6 fun mac

7 cleonte

8 golden spear

9 limini

10 Stanley

11 blue rambled

12 here and now 

13 low sun 

14 whisky sour 

Next we want to be in form and fit so any horse out of form or only couple runs this season are booted out 

So we lose it's a free bee ....melinoe...blue rambler ....low sun ...and whiskey sour ....so 34 has become 9 

Need good extended distance form ....so lose Glasgow warrior .....leaves 8 so I'll rate 

Poor recent ratings loses here and now ....fun mac .....golden spear 

Leaving 

Just in time 433  9-3  

Cliffs of Dover  425  8-6

Cleonte  426   9-0

Limini  433   9-7

Stanley   419  8-8 

Stanley I think is not quite good enough .....and limini although joint top rated so I wouldn't put anyone off backing is too high for me on 9-7 to lump around 2m2f against more lightly weighted horses so scrubbed leaving 

Just in time    16/1

Cliffs of Dover 33/1

Cleonte  16/1 

3x 5pt ew...all with will hill