Looking for the low scoring games

[duckmaster]

Reasonably simple premise here

football-data.co.uk have historical data for all games in most major leagues, but interestingly they also show the odds before kick off for these games.

I deleted all the games with at least one goal leaving me with all games that finished 0-0. I then calculated the mode, median and mean averages for all the odds on home win, away win and draw, and from those numbers calculated a mean average of each. Finally I took those three numbers and calculated their mean average (all this is to get the average deviation as low as possible). This gave me:

Home 2.26

Draw 3.47

Away 3.35

 

So we're going to look for games that are as close to those odds as possible. I'll take 3 (league games only):

Tondela v Rio Av
H 2.25
D 3.20
A 3.30

San Marcos Arica v Cobresal
H 2.38
D 3.10
A 2.70

Udinese v Sampdoria
H 2.20
D 3.40
A 3.25

Odds on <0.5 goals are 8, 9 and 9, combined for 648.00

Odds on <1.5 goals are 3, 3.5, 3.5, combined 36.75

Odds on <2.5 goals are 1.67, 1.91, 1.91 combined 6.09

 

2p on <0.5 goals

15p on <1.5 goals

83p on <2.5

total stake £1

 

Profit if all 0-0 = £23.52

if all <1.5 = £10.54

if all <2.5 = £4.88

 

Starting with a tenner and will do one a day!

[Sir Puntalot]

Good luck @duckmaster   

[duckmaster]

quick update

Tondelo game finished 1-1

Udinese are 1-0 up at half time

other game is 0-0 after 25 mins

 

So <0.5 and <1.5 have lost but still on for <2.5

[footysystems]

@duckmaster Been trying similar myself on low scoring games with lucky 15's and closely matched teams.

[duckmaster]

@footysystems that's interesting, what's your criteria for picking the games?

An 87th minute goal puts my third game on 2-1, others finished 1-1 and 1-0, scuppered... but very close!

[footysystems]

Just looking at price when teams are > 2.00 ish at home bit of a scatter brain attack but seems to be doing ok atm.

 

Landed a few big ones in the past but stakes are max £60.

Edited August 26, 2018 by footysystems

[duckmaster]

Good luck @footysystems, hopefully we can learn from each other here 

Slight modification to the system, <0.5 goals is a 5p minimum on Skybet, plus I'm not sure that market or <1.5 is worth it as it damages my return too much on the <2.5 so it'll be <2.5 only from now on.

Just two games that are close to the odds on Monday so its

Bromley v Havant & Waterlooville @ 1.91

Moreirense FC v Belenenses @ 1.62

for a £1 double @ 3.08

 

Couple of French Cup games that do meet criteria but I'm ignoring cup games as too volatile.

[duckmaster]

Also interesting when looking at the odds for games I chose for the first bet...

For games 1 the home odds were this close to the ideal odds:

GAME 1
Home - 99.5%
Draw - 92.2%
Away - 98.5%

GAME 3
Home - 97.3%
Draw - 97.9%
Away - 97%

but game 2...!!!

Home - 94.7%
Draw - 89.3%
Away - 80.6%

And it finished 2-1! The odds for the away team were actually BETTER than the draw, but for the other two they were either worse or very very close. So next criteria is that all odds can not be more than 10 percentage points (in total for H/D/A) worse than ideal odds. Game 1 was 9.8 points off, game 3 was 7.6 but game 2 was 35.4!

 

edit: For my last bet game 1 is 12 points off and game 2 is 8.7 off

Edited August 26, 2018 by duckmaster