duckmaster

I have been following your bets with interest but I have an idea - of your sixteen winning selections, 13 were score draws and 3 were nil nil draws. The odds on skybet seem to be between 25-45% better when selecting "Draw & BTTS". For example Krasnodar vs PAOK tomorrow is 3.25 for the draw but Draw & BTTS is 4.33, which is 33% higher. Obviously it means your nil nil bets would lose but might the increase in odds for a score draw make up for that and make a bit more profit?

St Mirren without first second and third choice keepers due to COVID. Hibs at 1.8 still but will be interesting to see who, if anyone, St Mirren bring in on emergency loan or if they go with a youth player. Hibs (-1) is 3.25

Well that didn’t exactly go to plan. An Albania/Austria double is all I’m willing to put my head over the parapet on for this one!

Iceland are apparently without five key players and are a shadow of the team that took them to the Euros and WC a few years ago. England were on fire last year, scored 38 and conceded 9 in 10 games (WLD: 7/1/2). if there’s going to be a 5-0 pumping in this round then this game will be it. England -4.5 is 15.00 which is down from 19.00 on Tuesday afternoon, obviously adjust the handicap for the risk you want to take but if that’s not worth a fiver I don’t know what is. And I’m Scottish so I don’t have any vested interest in that one. But as for Scotland I’d say under 2.5 goals, our striker options are limited (to say the least) and the last two games against them were close. No value in under 2.5 though. Provided Clarke puts out the best team possible it should be a Scotland win as games are won in midfield and the defence should be pretty solid, wouldn’t bet on it being by more than a goal though. Says it all that the shortest odds player to score for Scotland is Dykes (2.88 at anytime, insane), who will make his debut. He’s the only actual striker. Forrest, who is being called a striker for reasons past the comprehension of mere mortals like myself, is 4.20 at any time. It will presumably be a 4-5-1 with Dykes up front, I can’t see any other option. McGinn to score first at 8.00 is my “I think this will happen but don’t have the balls to bet on it” prediction. But the England game should be an annihilation.

I’m going to be absolutely insane here and say that Estonia might be able to take something from Northern Ireland. They lost their last game at home to Austria 2-1 and lost two away games to Austria and Bosnia before that, with a 0-0 draw to the Republic of Ireland sandwiched in between. Their squad is aging and there’s bound to be some complacency in this one. Estonia are ranked 98th in the world but a 0-0 away draw with Iceland after a 2-1 win away to Finland is going to boost their confidence. They were both friendlies but they did win their last competitive away game, although admittedly thanks to a Greek own goal. Theyre going to play for a smash and grab and if Northern Ireland think this ones already in the bag then it might just work. A long shot maybe but Estonia (draw no bet) @ 6.00 with Skybet for me

I think Switzerland are overpriced at 50/1. Undefeated in their group at the WC and only went out 1-0 to Sweden in a game which could hardly be described as a classic. Their captain was suspended for it as well. They’re narrow favourites to win their qualifying group ahead of Denmark, plus the Swiss play them at home first so three points could start some momentum to leave the Danish chasing them from the word go. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with Georgia and Gibralter...Ireland might cause problems but the Danes have to play them as well? Their squad seems decent and age wise most players will be at their peak next year. They lack depth in midfield and don’t have a superstar striker which is probably why they’re priced so high. It’s only a seven game tournament per team plus the third team in each group can possibly go into the knock out round so I’d expect them to get through. They thrashed Belgium 5-2 and annihilated Iceland 6-0 in the Nations League so there’s goals in the team. 50/1 won’t narrow much if/when they qualify but it’s worth an each way shout. edit: Ranked 8th in world, 6th in Europe but joint 11th in bookies odds to win 2020

Just trying out with champs league... REAL MADRID 1-0 10.00 1 3-2 26.00 0.5 2-2 23.00 1 3-3 81.00 1 0-2 81.00 1 BENFICA 2-0 7.00 0.5 3-2 34.00 1 4-0 15.00 0.5 2-2 23.00 0.5 3-3 81.00 1 0-2 51.00 1 MAN CITY 1-0 13.00 1 4-0 12.00 1 5-0 19.00 0.5 5-2 51.00 1 2-2 21.00 1 3-3 67.00 1 0-2 81.00 0.5 1-3 81.00 1 2-4 201.00 1 SHAKHTAR 1-0 13.00 1 4-0 51.00 1 4-1 34.00 0.5 5-0 101.00 1 5-1 81.00 1 5-2 81.00 1 3-3 34.00 0.5 2-4 51.00 1 VALENCIA 3-2 34.00 1 4-0 67.00 1 4-1 51.00 1 5-0 201.00 1 5-1 151.00 1 3-3 51.00 0.5 1-3 26.00 1 2-3 34.00 0.5 2-4 81.00 0.5

@liero1 mentioned earlier that I looked at stats for certain leagues then bet on others, my theory being that with this market the scores will remain consistent over different leagues... BUT the only bet that won (or even came close!) was Aberdeen in the SPL whose league are in the stats I am gathering the data for! Will stick to the leagues I've got the data for... so probably no more selections until Friday

Should say that this is all a bit fly-by-wire, I've never seen anyone do anything like what I'm trying to do here so don't blame me if it all goes wrong!

Worried that the file size is going to be too big but here it is edit calculator is wrong, please ignore for now. working on it

That'll do! Aberdeen 3-2 gives me 25.00 profit plus 0.5 stake back, 13 stake lost for a profit of 12.5 Where can I host an excel file online and I'll show you the calculator I've made?

All of them are goosed except Aberdeen which is 2-2 Will return 11.5pts from 13.5pts so a 2pt loss 2 mins left for another goal though!

Above (and game above that, which finished 2-0) is based on expected odds according to my chart. If bookies odds are at least 50% greater than those odds (i.e. my odds are 10.00, theirs are 15.00), its a half point bet, if bookies odds are 100% more it's a 1 point bet. 13.5 points total... we'll see what happens edit: in another words, I think the 0.5pts bets are 50% more likely to win as the bookies do, and the 1pt bets are twice as likely. doesn't mean they will of course...

TEAM SCORE ODDS POINTS WEYMOUTH 1-0 10.00 1 ST JOSEPHS 1-0 12.00 1 2-0 10.00 1 OXFORD CITY 1-0 7.50 0.5 RAVENNA 4-3 101.00 0.5 5-0 51.00 0.5 2-2 19.00 0.5 3-3 81.00 0.5 4-1 29.00 0.5 SLOUGH 1-0 8.50 0.5 2-1 7.50 0.5 GIANNA ERMINIO 3-2 29.00 0.5 ABERDEEN 3-2 51.00 1 0-3 81.00 1 2-3 81.00 1 2-1 9.50 0.5 4-2 101.00 0.5 4-3 251.00 0.5 2-2 23.00 0.5 3-3 151.00 0.5 WESTON SUPER MARE 0-0 13.00 0.5

will explain reasoning later, this is a bet based on a combination of my probability and value charts