duckmaster

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  1. Using odds to predict scores

    Just trying out with champs league... REAL MADRID 1-0 10.00 1 3-2 26.00 0.5 2-2 23.00 1 3-3 81.00 1 0-2 81.00 1 BENFICA 2-0 7.00 0.5 3-2 34.00 1 4-0 15.00 0.5 2-2 23.00 0.5 3-3 81.00 1 0-2 51.00 1 MAN CITY 1-0 13.00 1 4-0 12.00 1 5-0 19.00 0.5 5-2 51.00 1 2-2 21.00 1 3-3 67.00 1 0-2 81.00 0.5 1-3 81.00 1 2-4 201.00 1 SHAKHTAR 1-0 13.00 1 4-0 51.00 1 4-1 34.00 0.5 5-0 101.00 1 5-1 81.00 1 5-2 81.00 1 3-3 34.00 0.5 2-4 51.00 1 VALENCIA 3-2 34.00 1 4-0 67.00 1 4-1 51.00 1 5-0 201.00 1 5-1 151.00 1 3-3 51.00 0.5 1-3 26.00 1 2-3 34.00 0.5 2-4 81.00 0.5
  2. Using odds to predict scores

    @liero1 mentioned earlier that I looked at stats for certain leagues then bet on others, my theory being that with this market the scores will remain consistent over different leagues... BUT the only bet that won (or even came close!) was Aberdeen in the SPL whose league are in the stats I am gathering the data for! Will stick to the leagues I've got the data for... so probably no more selections until Friday
  3. Using odds to predict scores

    Should say that this is all a bit fly-by-wire, I've never seen anyone do anything like what I'm trying to do here so don't blame me if it all goes wrong!
  4. Using odds to predict scores

    Worried that the file size is going to be too big but here it is edit calculator is wrong, please ignore for now. working on it
  5. Using odds to predict scores

    That'll do! Aberdeen 3-2 gives me 25.00 profit plus 0.5 stake back, 13 stake lost for a profit of 12.5 Where can I host an excel file online and I'll show you the calculator I've made?
  6. Using odds to predict scores

    All of them are goosed except Aberdeen which is 2-2 Will return 11.5pts from 13.5pts so a 2pt loss 2 mins left for another goal though!
  7. Using odds to predict scores

    Above (and game above that, which finished 2-0) is based on expected odds according to my chart. If bookies odds are at least 50% greater than those odds (i.e. my odds are 10.00, theirs are 15.00), its a half point bet, if bookies odds are 100% more it's a 1 point bet. 13.5 points total... we'll see what happens edit: in another words, I think the 0.5pts bets are 50% more likely to win as the bookies do, and the 1pt bets are twice as likely. doesn't mean they will of course...
  8. Using odds to predict scores

    TEAM SCORE ODDS POINTS WEYMOUTH 1-0 10.00 1 ST JOSEPHS 1-0 12.00 1 2-0 10.00 1 OXFORD CITY 1-0 7.50 0.5 RAVENNA 4-3 101.00 0.5 5-0 51.00 0.5 2-2 19.00 0.5 3-3 81.00 0.5 4-1 29.00 0.5 SLOUGH 1-0 8.50 0.5 2-1 7.50 0.5 GIANNA ERMINIO 3-2 29.00 0.5 ABERDEEN 3-2 51.00 1 0-3 81.00 1 2-3 81.00 1 2-1 9.50 0.5 4-2 101.00 0.5 4-3 251.00 0.5 2-2 23.00 0.5 3-3 151.00 0.5 WESTON SUPER MARE 0-0 13.00 0.5
  9. Using odds to predict scores

    will explain reasoning later, this is a bet based on a combination of my probability and value charts
  10. Using odds to predict scores

    Arsenal de Sarandi v Nueva Chicago in 2 minutes 1-1 6.00 2-1 8.50 3-2 29.00 2-3 41.00 0-3 41.00
  11. Using odds to predict scores

    I have made a new table which converts the percentages into odds. What to do is look for the home odds column for the team you are interested in. The numbers which correspond to the scores are the ideal odds the bookies should be giving you for that particular score for that particular team. If they're offering higher odds, that's a good bet. Looking at Liverpool vs Napoli for tomorrow, Liverpools odds are 1.62. So on the 1.61-1.7 column we can see the odds for the following scores are: 1-0 7.05 2-0 9.90 3-0 11.52 4-0 41.25 0-0 15.10 1-1 7.05 0-1 25.00 0-2 66.60 2-1 5.76 1-2 27.17 skybet are offering us: 1-0 10.00 (good!) 2-0 9.50 (bad but only just) 3-0 13.00 (good) 4-0 23.00 (terrible) 0-0 19.00 (good) 1-1 8.00 (good but only just) 0-1 19.00 (bad) 0-2 34.99 (bad) 2-1 8.50 (good) 1-2 15.00 (terrible) The value bets here appear to be 1-0, 3-0 and 2-1 as Skybet are basically rating the chances of that score happening as lower than my chart suggests they are. i.e. my chart suggests it has a 14.8% chance, Skybets odds suggests it only has a 11.76% chance. Then again its a Champions League game so not touching it, but just as an example!
  12. Using odds to predict scores

    If anyone knows of a site where I can get historical data for other leagues that would be helpful. Particularly interested in India and China - would be interesting to see if the theory stacks up in the "wild west" of football"!
  13. Using odds to predict scores

    I forgot to put in the original post that I also entered all the stats from all major leagues from last season and the table didn't change that much. The sheet I've made has all data for the following leagues from last season: England & Scotland - top four leagues Germany, Spain, Italy & France - top two leagues Holland, Belgium, Portugal Turkey & Greece - top league Its 7,258 games total. My theory is that the difference in scores between leagues is negligible. Whilst the quality of player in the English Premier League is overall far higher than the quality of player in the Dutch Eredivisie, the difference in quality between players in their own league remains about the same. For example, a top striker in a top six English team may be "ranked" 85/100, but the defenders he is coming up against are also ranked in the 80-90/100 range. A top striker in Holland may only be "ranked" 65/100, but because the quality of defenders is 60-70/100 the overall difference in quality remains the same. (note that these are rankings I just made up to make my point, they're not based on anything!) A football match is two halves of 45 minutes for 90 minutes total, with 11 players on each team including 1 goalkeeper, plus a referee. Those are the only facts which remain constant whether the game is being played in England, South Africa, Brazil etc. When looking at statistics, and assuming the quality difference of players in each league is reasonably constant, the same scorelines should occur at approximately the same rate in one league as in another (there are other factors like number of teams in league, number of games etc as well of course, but the main ones are the fact the games are the same length and played under the same rules with a similar quality of players on the pitch). Another interesting thing I have discovered with spreadsheets is this: assume the following scenario: Team A is at home to Team B. Team B scores two goals in the first half. The score is 0-2 at half time. In the second half, Team A scores 3 goals to go ahead before Team B equalises. The score finishes 3-3. In a 20 team league there will be 380 matches. The above scenario will occur approximately the same number of times per season as the season before that. It is impossible (probably) to predict the game in which it will happen, but it is extremely probable that, at some point in the season, it will happen. Anyway this was 1-1 so £3 bet and £6 back, £3 profit
  14. Using odds to predict scores

    Slightly different here: El-Masry v El Daklyeh, home odds 1.75, 3pm Monday (GMT) Expected score 1-1 1-1 @ 6.00 1-0 @ 5.50 2-0 @ 7.00 £1 each
  15. Using odds to predict scores

    A treble on the two wins and a draw would have been approx 8.00 or 7/1