Tiffy Posted April 16, 2018 Share Posted April 16, 2018 @Sir Puntalot @stevieday1983 Did I read somewhere that punters would be in profit if they backed teams at odds of over 4/1? it went through my head when I looked at the odds on WBA to beat Man U away this weekend. Is there any chance someone could back test this over the current season to see if it is worth doing. Im tempted to do it next season, and put results it in the SYSTEMS & STRATEGIES thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted April 16, 2018 Share Posted April 16, 2018 Yeah apparently so, not sure if it’s related to just homes or aways, but I remember reading about it a few years ago. It’s on the list to do, but way down at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffy Posted April 16, 2018 Author Share Posted April 16, 2018 Haha, yes I'm sure it is! I may give it a paper trial, next season, if you don't get round to it before then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
padman Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Best laying the 4/1 & over. MAYBE. Done 50 test over the last week or so and looking at -8 profit and thats with the West Brom win If laying the fav +2.73 without comm taken off. Will check laying the + 4/1 - the small amount of records I kept. Last 21 bets would be +21 profit haha Will try and keep PROPER records from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffy Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 The last round of Prem games there were 4 teams over 4/1 Brighton 5.5 Burnley 7.0 Huddersfield 21.0 West Brom 8.5 1point on each to win would have returned a 10pt profit Only 1 team with odds over 4/1 lost! Food for thought.... @Sir Puntalot can you get that lazy sod @StevieDay1983 to back test this over the summer. It's about time he did something useful........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Tiffy said: The last round of Prem games there were 4 teams over 4/1 Brighton 5.5 Burnley 7.0 Huddersfield 21.0 West Brom 8.5 1point on each to win would have returned a 10pt profit Only 1 team with odds over 4/1 lost! Food for thought.... @Sir Puntalot can you get that lazy sod @StevieDay1983 to back test this over the summer. It's about time he did something useful........ Sorry mate, he's in a World Cup dungeon over the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
padman Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, Tiffy said: The last round of Prem games there were 4 teams over 4/1 Brighton 5.5 Burnley 7.0 Huddersfield 21.0 West Brom 8.5 1point on each to win would have returned a 10pt profit Only 1 team with odds over 4/1 lost! Food for thought.... @Sir Puntalot can you get that lazy sod @StevieDay1983 to back test this over the summer. It's about time he did something useful........ Freak end of season results - lay em all. I have been watching this and getting near to a 100 paper bets, its a loser. Will post my results when I hit the ton That will be tonight I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said: Sorry mate, he's in a World Cup dungeon over the summer. Hang on... why does that sound worse when it's written in text than when you said it to me? @Tiffy, this time of the season always sees results skewered. Before I was posting on here, I'd rarely get involved in betting at the end of the season because so many teams saw their form rollercoaster as desperation and pressure sets in. On the flip side, it's a great time to bet because there's loads of value in the underdogs. Not many teams go down or up without any fight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 3 hours ago, padman said: Freak end of season results - lay em all. I have been watching this and getting near to a 100 paper bets, its a loser. Will post my results when I hit the ton That will be tonight I think. You'd need well over 2000 bets to have any significant sample size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
padman Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Yes I know - but if you are in a big loss after a 100 I know I would not be able to carry on. So 100 is my go to amount these days for paper trading. Still looking for the grail haha Tiffy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffy Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 Yeah me too @padman let me know when your figures are up and tag me when posted, I'll be interested to rake a look cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffy Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 21 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said: Sorry mate, he's in a World Cup dungeon over the summer. Best place for him, can you make sure it's full of angry Swansea fans too please? Sir Puntalot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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