Aykay1 Posted July 7, 2005 Share Posted July 7, 2005 355 York - Saturday. Place your thoughts on the John Smiths Cup here :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 7, 2005 Author Share Posted July 7, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** Here's some interesting draw and age statistics from the RFO to give us a hand. DRAW Horses drawn in single figures have a distinct advantage - 9 of the last 10 years winners were drawn in single figures. Last years winner, Arcalis bucked the trend as he was drawn in 18/21. Arcalis was high class and has since wont the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Horses drawn in single figures have produced 9 winners from 86 runners. Horses drawn in double figures have produced only 1 winner from 105 runners. If you are placing each way bets, bear in mind that horses drawn in single figures have been placed 30% of the time. Compare that to 12% of horses drawn in double figures. AGE 3 year olds have a good record. 35 have attempted to win the race in the last 10 years and 4 have succeeded with a further 14 being placed. Conversely, its probably best to disregard 6 year olds and over. 40 have attempted to win the race in the last 10 years and none of them have succeeeded. Only one has been placed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 8, 2005 Share Posted July 8, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** Crow wood has been an excellent horse all season & i expect another bold show tomorrow. Struggles to get his head in front early enough to win often but trainer is eyeing this big prize as within its grasp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2005 Author Share Posted July 8, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** He will need to defy the age stats Bowles but i think he is a real danger nonetheless. The draw is good and so is his form. He won well at Epsom, beating Sergeant Cecil (Northumberland Plate winner) in the process and was only beaten half a length by Notable Guest in the Duke of Edinburgh stakes. There are 2 reasons why he could turn the tables on Notable Guest tomorrow: 1) He has a better draw - Notable Guest is drawn 15. 2) He has a 5lb pull at the weights, which should be enough to overturn a half length beating i reckon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2005 Author Share Posted July 8, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** I think the 2 market leaders, Notable Guest and Mullins Bay can be taken on at their current prices of 4/1 and 9/2. Although potentially ahead of the handicapper, they are badly drawn. As the above post suggests i agree with Bowles that CROW WOOD has a major chance. Im also sweet on the chance of I'M SO LUCKY, who i think can maintain 3 year olds good record in the race. he looks progressive and has been raised a fair 5lb's for his win last time out. My selection shouldnt really come as a suprise, it is my best mate THYOLO. Anyone who follows my thread will note that i have been following this horse this season and have been waiting for it to drop a couple of pounds in the handicap. Well tomorrow it runs off a mark of 95. That is 1lb lower than his last race, and the same mark as when he finished 3rd in the Brittania at Royal ascot last year. 18.0 for the win on betfair 4.5 for the place (unmatched) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** Woodcracker for me.Got ticks in all right boxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Joe Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** Front runners are more favoured here, and I'm going for Im So Lucky Each-Way at 20-1 who is a front runner. If you look through his form, his best form is at 1m2f as when he won over this distance in a Class 2 race at Newbury in May and again at Sandown last Friday, however in between those races he was disappointing at both Haydock in the King George Handicap at York both over 1m4f which suggests he isnt as effective over that longer trip. He is the only three year old in the line up and seems to be progressing and is nicely weighted, he'll do for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverfox Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** This race is as competitive as ever and there are doubts over much of the field regarding trip,going etc and I have narrowed it down to two, Zero Tolerance who may get able to get an easy lead from a good draw and WOODCRACKER from the Michael Bell stable with Darryll Holland a positive jockey booking and the latter is the selection, however have a small each way saver on Zero Tolerance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spotlight's doppelganger Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** ZERO TOLERANCE for me.Good on a slightly easier surface but has fair efforts on g/f.On this good going I can see him running surprisingly well. E/W mind you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** Woodcracker for me.Got ticks in all right boxes.:rollin Bet your glad you went with Crow Wood m8 :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** Woodcracker for me.Got ticks in all right boxes.:rollin Bet your glad you changed your mind to Crow Wood m8 :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted July 10, 2005 Share Posted July 10, 2005 Re: ***Race Of The Week: John Smiths Cup*** you can say that again.:lol I had win for woodcracker and e/w for crow. disapointing race for Woodcracker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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