Racing Chat - Friday June 23rd (Ascot Day 4)

[BillyHills]

Ascot Day 3 - Friday

Decent card on Friday at Ascot, we have two Group 1 races, two 3yo Group 2's a Fillies 2yo race and a 20 runner handicap to finish off with.

The opening contest is the Albany and while I have little time for the 2yo form this season I do think Alpha Centauri is a very smart filly in the making. She clocked a fast time apparently at Naas last time and that backed up what we saw visually. I have her 20pts clear on ratings and that will do for starters.

I backed Permian in the Derby and he ran better than his finishing position might suggest, he goes in the King Edward VII Stakes and meets Best Solution again. Crystal Ocean will be popular for the Stoute yard but nothing stands out.

Race 3 is the eagerly awaited Commonwealth Cup and the meeting between Caravaggio, Harry Angel and Blue Point. Each will have their supporters but Blue Point just comes out on top of the figures. Caravaggio's win here last year was impressive so is obviously a big danger along with the Clive Cox youngster who is improving.

The Coronation Stakes looks a formality for the Aidan O'Brien team with Winter, she will be long odds on so a little each way on Roly Poly wouldn't be the worst bet you ever had although its a watcher for me.

The Queens Vase is always a tough race to win, you often need something that is both improving and has plenty of courage. It's wide open this year and my rating suggest Fierce Impact is value at around 16/1. He tackles this trip for the first time and has improved with each run so far.

The finale is the days raffle, any one of a dozen could win this and I wouldn't be surprised. The Queen has a runner and that will be most popular especially with Ryan Moore in the saddle, I wouldn't put you off Mainstream although he has trouble actually winning races. The ratings horse is Cape Cova for in form Gosden yard and is worth an each way nibble.

 

2.30: Alpha Centauri 5/2 Bet365
3.40: Blue Point EW 11/2 Betway

[BillyHills]

445 Recar:

Cabal NAP 11/4 Bet365
Been running quite well of late and on more than one occasion suggested there was another victory in the 10yo mare. Over 7f at Wetherby last time she finished with a right rattle when it was all over and not surprisingly she goes back up to a mile here. It's not a great race and she has gone well here at Redcar a few times.

[Striker]

Take away, few beers and some bets at Ayr tonight!

6.30-Firestorm...each way @ 20-1  Bet Victor

 

7.40-Lamloom...win @ 9-4  Paddy Power

8.45-Mutadaffeq...win @ 7-2  Skybet

[BillyHills]

4 hours ago, Striker said:

Take away, few beers and some bets at Ayr tonight!

6.30-Firestorm...each way @ 20-1  Bet Victor

 

7.40-Lamloom...win @ 9-4  Paddy Power

8.45-Mutadaffeq...win @ 7-2  Skybet

Lamloom was loose

[Xtc12]

Just watched a replay of the 19.10 at Limerick. I had Old Time Waltz in the Conflict Cup waiting for a double. I did have a slight worry about the jockey and she confirmed my thoughts this evening. Hate when I fancy a horse and then look to see she is riding. She doesn't seem to have that drive to finish a race. With the ammunition she has available, she should have lost her claim ages ago. 

She has had 751 rides with 60 wins, a strike rate of just under 8%.

For her father alone she has had 389 rides with 35 wins giving a strike rate of 9%.

In general don't think she has what it takes to be a Hayley Turner but will no doubt ride a Gp 1 winner.

Thoughts please.

[jonshell]

11 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Just watched a replay of the 19.10 at Limerick. I had Old Time Waltz in the Conflict Cup waiting for a double. I did have a slight worry about the jockey and she confirmed my thoughts this evening. Hate when I fancy a horse and then look to see she is riding. She doesn't seem to have that drive to finish a race. With the ammunition she has available, she should have lost her claim ages ago. 

She has had 751 rides with 60 wins, a strike rate of just under 8%.

For her father alone she has had 389 rides with 35 wins giving a strike rate of 9%.

In general don't think she has what it takes to be a Hayley Turner but will no doubt ride a Gp 1 winner.

Thoughts please.

I use Racing Post Analysis to make up my mind after i have broke all races down to warrant a bet i find this information a really powerful tool. I fancied Old time waltz also and then i saw this.

20th June 7F.

A lovely ride from the front by Ana O'Brien on a filly that was able to sustain an end-to-end gallop.

OLD TIME WALTZ could be said to have stolen it, as none of the opposition tried to match the searching pace set by both the winner and Secret Path. What they didn't bargain for was the ability of Old Time Waltz to sustain that gallop right to the line. She could be a progressive filly and may prove as effective over six as she is over this trip. She bounced off the ground too.

15th June 1M

 Old Time Waltz might have lit up a fraction by the first-time blinkers. She went out in front and set a reasonable gallop but couldn't quite sustain it. She has the pace to be effective over seven.

In my mind i thought with her third race in a week 1 mile might just stretch her and agreed that 7F or 6 would have been in her compass.

i did not look at stats for Ana O'Brian and only 9% for her Dad is low but out of them 389 rides how many pacesetters has she rode (something her Dad uses quite a bit) As for the Group 1 Winner i think she will ride 1 or 2 

I was on my 2nd Bottle of wine last night when i did my bets so i recon i might be drowning my sorrows tonight and not having a Celebration drink.