Narrowing Down The Field Trial

[BillyHills]

Ok, so as you know I produce ratings on every race, every day and although it's been pretty successful its very difficult to cover all of the selections. The other day there was 9 meetings and 67 races! 
We had something like 14 winners but thats also a lot of losers, so how can we narrow down the selections?

I have a theory so i'm going to trial it and see how it goes, I wouldn't recommend anyone follow this just yet.

My personal outlook when trying to pick a winner comes in three simple stages.

1) Horse has to be in good current form coming into the race.
2) Horse has to have the ability/potential to achieve a certain standard for that race.
3) Horse must be consistent enough to think it can produce that standard.

In ratings terms we translate that as follows.

Each horse has a rating for its last 5 outings.
A) Current Form: Must have the highest rating of the field last time out.
B) Potential: Must have the highest individual rating of the field overall in its last 5 runs.
C) Reliability: Must have highest accumulative total over last 5 runs. (at least 10pts clear of next top rated)

Due to needing a reliability factor this will count out the majority of Maiden races due to lack of form to work on. 

Staking
The stakes will be fairly simple, 1pt if a horse is 10pts clear, 2pts if a horse is 20pts clear and so on.

*On average we only get a handful of horses more than say 40pts clear, these are often maiden races where not all of the runners have had enough starts.
I'm not sure how many qualifiers this will throw up, maybe some days a couple and other days none?

 

[BillyHills]

1 selection today

320 Brighton : Morache Music 

16pts clear : 1pt 100/30 Bet365

Best last time out rating, achieved highest rating of any horse during his last 5 runs and has ran close to that mark in three recent races.