Nice work if you can get it

[twinny]

managed a second place in prob one of the best Grand Prix for incidents ive seen for ages

total profit a massive  25p or 0.25 points 

[Torque]

Watson does the business against Cibulkova. In straight sets as well - not sure what the price was for that. So that's 6 points of profit on top of a 1.5 point loss on the golf at the weekend, which brings me to 4.5 points of profit so far and a yield of 100%. I'm not sure I'll be able to maintain a yield like that...

[Mr Marcus]

Nice, so many betting strategies out there you just have to find one and customize it for yourself imo

 

 

[harry_rag]

Bet 5 (or bets 5 and 6 to be more accurate) are 0.5 point stake on each of the following:

Chile total bookings points >20 at evens with PP

Germany shown 3 or more cards at 6/4 with Skybet

Effectively a bet that will be a push at worst if one team receives 3 or more yellow cards and will show the maximum profit if both do. In isolation I'd describe both prices as ok rather than outstanding but I just can't see this game unfolding in such a way that both teams manage to avoid incurring the ref's ire to the extent that neither see a 3rd card. We'll see!

[harry_rag]

In case it's not clear, that's in tonight's Confederations Cup final between Chile and Germany!

[twinny]

i will go for a one to two odds on shot with the chance of my money back 

that is Philadelphia win draw no bet 1/2odds skybet and general v New England Revolution 22.00 mls 

Reason is Philadelphia have hit form recently with 5 wins from there last 6 home game,but the main reason is that New England simply dont travel well with just 1 win from there last 20 games on the road

[harry_rag]

6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 5 (or bets 5 and 6 to be more accurate) are 0.5 point stake on each of the following:

Chile total bookings points >20 at evens with PP

Germany shown 3 or more cards at 6/4 with Skybet

Didn't look good for a while but 4 yellows for Chile and 3 for Germany in the end.

3 winners from 6 bets, -1 point with an ROI of -20%. (I make it I'd be 0.25 points up to level stakes with an ROI of 4.17%). Time to get a spreadsheet set up to make tracking these bets easier, now I've strayed from level stakes.

Nice to get back to winning ways, I was on the verge of celebrating it as a push before Germany's final late card.

[Torque]

Nothing I really liked this weekend. Should be good for a couple of punts next week with Wimbledon on.

[twinny]

Philadelphia 3 New England 0 + 1/2 point

[Torque]

Didn't like anything this week either. I'm taking some outright bets for Wimbledon now that a few rounds have been played and with play set to resume tomorrow after the traditional middle-sunday rest day. I'm going to use level stakes and one winner will see me in the green.

First off I'm putting 2 points on Andy Murray to win ATP Wimbledon at 7.80 at Smarkets. Looking at his side of the draw he's the stand-out player in my opinion with Nadal looking the most likely barrier to the final. I still have my doubts about the Spaniard on grass though after so many years of shock losses at SW19 for the King of Clay. Should Murray make the final he certainly wont be 7.80 to win, so I see some value in this price as even though there will likely be ups and downs along the way making the final should be the minimum for the two-time winner of this tournament.

As it's so open this year I'm backing three players to win WTA Wimbledon; One from each half of the draw at shorter odds and one wildcard at longer odds in the hopes that at least one will make the final and I'll have a nice price on them to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish. From the top half I'm putting 2 points behind Angelique Kerber at 14.00 at Smarkets as I feel that she's not being given enough respect by the market bearing in mind that she made the final here last year. Granted the German has had a relatively poor season so far, but she's a terrific grinder as she showed in the last round against Shelby Rogers and that's the kind of player I want to back - not to mention she's still the best player in the world as far as the rankings are concerned. 

From the bottom half my main pick is 2 points on Victoria Azarenka at 18.00 at Smarkets. The two-time Australian Open winner has only just come back to the tour after having a baby, but that's one of the reasons I want to back her. A few years ago Kim Clijsters arrived at the US Open in similar circumstances and won the tournament, and I wouldn't be surprised if Azarenka repeated the trick. I think one of the reasons Clijsters was able to win that US Open title in 2009 was because she was just enjoying playing tennis and wasn't bogged down by anything else and that benefited her game. Having a baby often has a positive effect on a sportsperson, so much so that the term 'Nappy Factor' was coined. In Azarenka's case - like Kerber - she's a good fighter but at the same time I wonder if motherhood has given her a new perspective and made her a little more relaxed and more able to swing freely. This bet could fall at the first hurdle as the 2nd seed Simona Halep stands in the way of a quarter-final place, but I'm still happy to be on at the price.

My wildcard pick is Ana Konjuh at 44.00 at Smarkets. The young Croatian has a game well-suited to grass, having won her only WTA title on the surface. Part of the reason for this price is that nearly every other player in her half of the draw is towards the top of the tournament betting, including her next opponent Venus Williams. If Konjuh can come through against the veteran American and make the last eight though, which just might happen as Williams hasn't made smooth progress up to this point, and in such a wide-open tournament who knows how far she could go. Jelena Ostapenko was a surprise French Open winner last month - what price another surprise winner in the very next Grand Slam. I'm hoping it's 44.00...

[harry_rag]

Good luck. It's likely to be a "no bet" week for me unless something unexpected leaps out between now and Wednesday.

[harry_rag]

No bet last week but still on a bet per week average after 2 bets the week before. There will be a bet this week, on the Cilic/Federer match, I just need to narrow it down to which one.

Back in an hour or so.

[harry_rag]

I've messed up here in terms of leaving it too late to post the selection to meet the commitment to minimum 1 hour notice that I gave at the outset. I'd assumed the final started at 2:00 but was misled by Spreadex showing it as 3:00! 

Having flagged the intended bet I'll post it for anyone who's interested but it won't count as an official selection, win or lose, unless the match doesn't start for at least an hour after the time of the post.

Cilic v Federer: 1 point on >29.5 aces in the match at 23/20 with 888

Assuming the spreads are about right and that the poisson distribution is of some relevance to aces in tennis matches, this should be well odds on. Higher lines are indeed odds on elsewhere, though arguably still a bit too big. 

[harry_rag]

Oh well, the only good thing about that was it doesn't count for the purposes of this thread. The bet really needed Cilic to have a much better match but it just wasn't to be. I believe he was 4/6 to win a set but he certainly didn't play to anything like the sort of standard required to justify such a price. Apologies if anyone had the misfortune to follow.

[Torque]

Struck out with all my Wimbledon bets - didn't even get a run for my money on the Women's side as all my players lost straight after I backed them. So that's -3.5 pts for me on this thread. Must do better. 

[Torque]

One bet for me this week which is on the golf. Half a point on Adam Scott to win the Open at a generally available 34.00 when I looked earlier. I could jot down some reasons why I like this but the best write-up in favour of Scott is available on the Golf thread courtesy of @BillyHills

[harry_rag]

Good luck. It's been a no bet week for me but it's a marathon not a sprint.

[harry_rag]

Bets 7 and 8 are 0.5 points each on the following in the Women's Euro games later:

Scotland v Portugal - 2 or 3 cards shown in the 1st half at 9/2 with Hills

England v Spain - 2 or 3 cards shown in the 1st half at 5/1 with Hills

Just one would show a profit to the stakes. Has happened in 4 out of the 14 games so far but in 3 out of 6 of the 2nd round of group games. The ref handling the latter game is one of the 4 to have done it already. There will be more confident selections to come but this is strong enough for me to post as I'm happy the prices underestimate the chance of 2 or 3 cards being required before the break in at least one of these games. (Obviously 4 or more would be a galling way to lose but the 4 instances so far have all seen exactly 2 cards.)

[Torque]

Good luck Harry. No luck for me in the golf. Scott might have made a run after a respectable opening round but a bad second round score put paid to that. -4pts now for me.

[harry_rag]

No joy for me either. One card in the first half of each game, very early on in the case of the earlier kick off. Full update to follow.

[harry_rag]

No winners from Sunday's pair of bets.

3 winners from 8 bets, -2 points with an ROI of -33.33%.

To level stakes, -1.75 points with an ROI of -21,88%.

[Torque]

My midweek offering is 1pt on Marco Chiudinelli to beat Paolo Lorenzi at the ATP Tennis tournament in Gstaad at 5.35 with Betsafe. I'm always looking for ideally at least a couple of reasons to take a bet and in this case I've got three. First of all, the price on Lorenzi is too short as despite being close to a career-high ranking he's typically been a bit of a journeyman player and that means he can't be relied on to deliver as such a strong favourite even though clay is his favourite surface. Second, he was a losing finalist last weekend in Umag so not only might the disappointment of that defeat still be in his mind but also such a quick turnaround might mean that fatigue comes into play. Thirdly, whilst Chiudinelli doesn't really like clay and has no form to speak of he does sometimes have bursts of good form and the last time he played on clay in his home country he managed to get a win. A repeat of that here will do nicely.

[Torque]

21 hours ago, Torque said:

My midweek offering is 1pt on Marco Chiudinelli to beat Paolo Lorenzi at the ATP Tennis tournament in Gstaad at 5.35 with Betsafe. I'm always looking for ideally at least a couple of reasons to take a bet and in this case I've got three. First of all, the price on Lorenzi is too short as despite being close to a career-high ranking he's typically been a bit of a journeyman player and that means he can't be relied on to deliver as such a strong favourite even though clay is his favourite surface. Second, he was a losing finalist last weekend in Umag so not only might the disappointment of that defeat still be in his mind but also such a quick turnaround might mean that fatigue comes into play. Thirdly, whilst Chiudinelli doesn't really like clay and has no form to speak of he does sometimes have bursts of good form and the last time he played on clay in his home country he managed to get a win. A repeat of that here will do nicely.

Close but not close enough. -5pts now overall.

[harry_rag]

Unlucky. I'm going early this week, with another of my split stakes attempts.

Bets 9 and 10 are 1 point each on England women to be shown the 1st card v Portugal at 4/1 and the last card at 16/5, both with either PP or BF

Going a full point each rather than split this time because I'm confident in the prices offering value. I'd make no card being shown around 13/1 which is broadly in line with the market. Portugal should clearly be favourites to receive the first, last or any given card, perhaps around an 8/11 shot. Skybet go just 1/2 which is too short for me but generous compared to Paddy's 1/6. For me, England should be 2/1 (each) at most to receive the first card or the last card so you can see why the above prices appeal (Skybet going just 13/8). Put another way, if you dutch the 2 prices you're getting odds against about something I think should be no more than 1/2.

[harry_rag]

An early card for England lands one half of the split stakes double. The other is currently in as England have been shown both yellow cards thus far. Hopefully they end up with the last card one way or another.

The fact they're only drawing at the break, and the manager having made 10 changes to the starting line-up, should work in my favour,

[harry_rag]

No more cards shown so both bets win.

5 winners from 10 bets, +5.2 points with an ROI of 65%%.

To level stakes, +5.45 points with an ROI of 54.5%.

[twinny]

Great tips harry,excellent stuff

[Torque]

Great stuff Harry. I'm going to make my 'weekend' bet now and hope I don't tempt fate by saying it. I'm putting 10pts on Caroline Wozniacki to justify favouritism and win the WTA Tennis tournament in Bastad at 2.87 with Paddy Power. The Dane plays tomorrow in the quarter-final and is a strong favourite to win meaning that she should still be in the tournament come Saturday. It hasn't been an easy ride for her so far after two three-set victories, but she's generally quite reliable in minor tournaments like this and has won plenty of them in the past. She should make the final here at least where she will most likely face Garcia, a player who has never beaten her before although it's only fair to say they've never met on clay. I'd still back her to win though due to her greater experience of playing in finals and winning them.

[harry_rag]

Thanks guys and good luck Torque. The challenge now is to try and stay in the black and build on that good result.

At least, with the domestic season ramping up, their should be no shortage of decent bets.

[Torque]

Wozniacki lost in the final. Carrying some sort of injury by all accounts but then so was her opponent. That's the trouble with longer-term bets in tennis - you can't legislate for injuries. Some work for me to do to get back into profit as I'm now 15 points down. At least it's going well for you Harry.