Tour de France 2005

[pageot]

Just wondered does anyone have any opinions / insights into this years tour? Must admit to not being a big fan but I did watch it last year when Armstrong won very comfortably in the end. The current market leaders are: Armstrong 10/11 Ullrich 7/2 Basso 7/1 Vinokourov 10/1 He has already won it six times so I can't see past Armstrong at 10/11 myself but any other views? Also looking for some e/w value in the king of the mountains with Heras 33/1 standing out at the moment - thanks

[MattyNeth]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Welcome pageot:welcome Armstrong in his last tour. No way he will not win it. 10/11 is a great price, he's simply different class to the rest of them

[edtkh]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Can't see past Armstrong for a winner myself - Jan Ulrich would make a decent bet if a 'Winner w/o Armstrong' market became available as he's been the most consistent challenger to Armstrong's throne over the last 4-5 years. I wouldn't bother with any of the others as they are as reliable as a toss of the coin(not even on a e/w bet) although Basso may be a worthy shout if you had a 1/5 e/w available. Nevertheless, I'm not in the slightest convinced Ulrich's(or anyone else for that matter) going to come anywhere close to challenging Armstrong - nothing like what he pulled off in 2003(or was it 2002? :\ )...

[Tulenos]

Re: Tour de France 2005 He was challenging Armstrong last year and for quite a few stages they were level and on betting terms he was also available @ odds-on while Lance went as high as some 6/4, but made all in the end anyway. Might be interesting to wait and see how Ullrich's honeymoon influences his form, too;) Vinoukurov was a worthy contender last year too.;)

[Master Joe]

Re: Tour de France 2005 I reckon Iban Basso is the best climber, but isn't as good Time Trailing which cost him 2nd place last year and seems to be improving with every tour. If he has built up his strength in the time trailing department he must have a big chance and plus the fact he will return this year as an even stronger and better climber which means I think he is capable of breaking away from the champ in the mountains and I think he is the only person in this years tour which can. He can get vital seconds in the Mountain stages from Armstrong and 7/1 is a good price.

[Tulenos]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Is Petacchi in the line-up "for the first few stages", ie flat ones?

[Tulenos]

Re: Tour de France 2005 If I remember well, the mountains took a bit too much form Basso last year and he was struggling after that.

[edtkh]

Re: Tour de France 2005

He was challenging Armstrong last year and for quite a few stages they were level and on betting terms he was also available @ odds-on while Lance went as high as some 6/4, but made all in the end anyway.

Tulenos, while you certainly have a point, I guess it's just as fair to say the tour is more or less decided well before the guys headed into the Champs-Elysees in the final stage over the last few years - that says a lot about Armstrong's strength over the rest of the field. I just feel they neither have the ability or strategy to win the tour...

[Tulenos]

Re: Tour de France 2005

Tulenos, while you certainly have a point, I guess it's just as fair to say the tour is more or less decided well before the guys headed into the Champs-Elysees in the final stage over the last few years - that says a lot about Armstrong's strength over the rest of the field. I just feel they neither have the ability or strategy to win the tour...

Agreed, edtkh, but there are and will be quite a few challengers, not to mention pure good luck on Lance's part as he was just millimetres from a fall two years ago (?) when he had to take a "shortcut" after swerwing just before hitting a lying cyclist after an accident (never remember his name, he was the one in purple t-shirt and quite promising too). It's all a part of the game, though, and as much as I hate backing odds-on shots for such long-term markets, it's very difficult to see part Armstrong.

[Master Joe]

Re: Tour de France 2005 A dark horse in this year's tour could be Floyd Landis who was in Armstrong's team last year as his pacemaker in the mountains, he wasn't allowed to show his true ability becuase his job was to make Armstrong when a 6th Tour. Landis has now moved teams to Team Phonak and could well be the surprise package in the Tour as he showed last year that he has the climbing and the time-trialing ability to match (if not beat) the best. Good each-way price at 66/1.

[Smithy888]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Each year I decide that Armstrong odds-on in an event run over 21 stages and 3600km is far too short to back when you can get those odds on a dog that is a dead cert and only has to run for 30 seconds. But each year he manages to avoid the catastrophe I am waiting for and he turns up trumps. Nevertheless, crashes are part of cycling so once again I will be betting on LA striking bad luck. His bike skills, the protection offered by his team mates and some extremely good luck have seen him avoid big problems in previous years. Even this year he crashes in training going over the handlebars but comes out of it without only a few abrasions. Ullrich for me @ $4.50 as none of the other contenders have what it takes to win such an epic stage race. He has a great team supporting him and seems to be ready. If you are backing LA I would hold off as his odds tend to lengthen over the first few days when he is usually back a few places on GC till the big hills come from Stage 9 onwards - though the team time trial on day 4 can also see him leap ahead. Vinokourov doesn't have it in the individual time trial or the hills to be a big threat for GC IMO. Betting on stage winners can be rewarding provided the research is done and 3 or so riders are taken at odds - remembering at all times that cycling over one stage can be a bit of a lottery with a couple of dozen riders or more capable of winning if they get the right breaks. The site for all the best information is www.cyclingnews.com A good rundown on each of the teams is at http://www.dummocrats.com/archives/001003.php It is going to be a hard month at work for those of us in this part of the world with TdF to watch during the night.

[Tulenos]

Re: Tour de France 2005

Joseba Beloki was once a great rider, but has never recovered from a really bad crash at the Tour in 2003.

So it happened not last year, but two years ago and the name of the lad who crasehed is Joseba Beloki - he was my fav then, but I can see he is struggling to get back to form.

his is the team of the great sprinter Alessandro Petacchi. Unfortunately, Petacchi will not be in the race. Look for Juan Antonio Flecha to take a stage or two

My above question answered - Petacchi will not start, but from the dummocrats prevew Flecha is the one to win a stage, probably a flat one.

[oldbigead]

Re: Tour de France 2005

He was challenging Armstrong last year and for quite a few stages they were level and on betting terms he was also available @ odds-on while Lance went as high as some 6/4, but made all in the end anyway. Might be interesting to wait and see how Ullrich's honeymoon influences his form, too;) Vinoukurov was a worthy contender last year too.;)

Ullrich barely challenged Armstrong at all last year. Armstrong was as dominant last year as he's ever been. I think your thinking of the year before when Armstrong was exposed and but for a very wet last time trail which favoured him over the bigger, less mobile Ulrich(who also fell off at one point) may well have lost the 2003 Tour. Vinokurov also didn't even particiapte in the Tour last year, it was the year before again, 2003 where he rode a great race. Guess Armstrong has to be clear favourite, as someonelse on this thread said it a bloody long race over three weeks, alot can happen(although obv not so much that he's won it for the last 6 years). This years course is a little bit flatter than last years and thi may favour Ullrich a little, esp if he can ride great time trials. Based on 2003's race he can win ,based on last years he can't....i think we need to wait and see how the race unfolds. PS Bloody unfair that team time trial. A loss of 2 minutes in that could cost a legitimate contender the race.

[Tulenos]

Re: Tour de France 2005 oldbighead - completely forgot I didn't have a chance to follow the race last year at all as we were reconstructin the facade of our house which took us good six weeks. So all my above comments were about the 2003 race, including Beloki's fall (when Armstrong nearly fell over him) and Ullrich's challege. Vinoukurov comments as well. Sorry for the mistake in years;)

[oldbigead]

Re: Tour de France 2005 You're forgiven.:D .

[brookes]

Re: Tour de France 2005

Betting on stage winners can be rewarding provided the research is done and 3 or so riders are taken at odds - remembering at all times that cycling over one stage can be a bit of a lottery with a couple of dozen riders or more capable of winning if they get the right breaks. The site for all the best information is www.cyclingnews.com A good rundown on each of the teams is at http://www.dummocrats.com/archives/001003.php It is going to be a hard month at work for those of us in this part of the world with TdF to watch during the night.

Thanks for these sites Smithy - Inside Edge has 2 pages on the race and "info sites" of letour and Armstrong's thepaceline - not much research there. I am interested in the tour but have never bet on it .IT may change this year though.A mate of mine did l'Etape two years ago . cheers hope there will be opportuinities to bet

[Luddite71]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Does anyone know if theres a maazine or publication out previewing this years Tour? Always enjoy it as a spectacle but wish I could learn more about it. Also on the subject of Beloki i notice he's not in the betting - is he not competing?

[DAC]

Re: Tour de France 2005 I may be a mug punter but odds of evens on Lance not winning the tour are too good (for me anyways) to pass up. Inside edge seem to think he may pull out if he doesn't get off to a good start. Anyway, at least I'll have 3 weeks hoping the Legend will fall off his bike.

[Master Joe]

Re: Tour de France 2005 From Racing Post: T-MOBILE have thrown down the gauntlet to Lance Armstrong by spending millions assembling the best ever team seen at the Tour de France in a desperate bid to end Armstrong's era of dominance. The phone company are believed to have spent more than £5 million bringing together three of Armstrong's main rivals - Jan Ullrich, Alexandre Vinokourov and Andreas Kloden - plus other outstanding riders such as Giuseppe Guerini, Oscar Sevilla and Daniele Nardello in one crack team. Last year the combined might of Ullrich and Kloden barely got Armstrong out of first gear, but with Vinokourov added to the mix and Armstrong not in the same formthis year, T-Mobile will have high hopes of overall glory. Although with Ullrich - surely a less likely winner, despite the current odds, than the brilliant Vinokourov, who was third in 2003 when he last rode the Tour - elected as team leader, it will beinteresting to see how the team dynamics work. Armstrong remains an odds-on favourite to bow out of cycling with a seventh successive win but must overcome his worst ever preparation if he is to bow out in style. Not once since Armstrong began his miraculous winning streak in 1999 has the legendary American come into the race without a win under his belt all year. However, since returning to the saddle later than usual in March, he has fallen short of his general high standards. He even withdrew from the prestigious Paris-Nice race after suffering badly in the early stages, and was only fourth overall in his final warm-up, the Dauphine Libere, during which he was comfortably beaten by Santiago Botero in the time-trial. After that defeat Armstrong said: "I'm not overwhelmingly pleased but not disappointed. It's a stepping stone to the Tour and I'm still on track." Even without Tyler Hamilton, currently serving a two-year drugs ban, there are plenty of contenders to take Armstrong's crown. The T-Mobile boys will obviously push him hard; Ivan Basso, third last year, has got stronger every year in the Tour; mountains specialist Iban Mayo and Colombian all-rounder Botero could go well at juicier odds; and Armstrong's former domestiques Floyd Landis and Roberto Heras have finally been given their chance to shine. A dark horse could well be Bobby Julich, a revelation when third in 1998 but subsequently out of form until storming back with a bronze medal in the Olympics and a victory in the Paris-Nice race. And it is good to see Joseba Beloki, who would probably have beaten Armstrong in 2003 but for his shocking crash on the Col de la Rochette, back in the race in Heras's Liberty team.

[Master Joe]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Three-year form - overall classification ................................................................................. 2004 1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 83.36.02 (40.56 km/h) 2 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 6.19 3 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 6.40 4 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 8.50 5 JoseAzevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 14.30 6 Francisco Mancebo Pérez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 18.01 7 Georg Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner 18.27 8 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 19.51 9 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 20.12 10 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 22.54 11 Pietro Caucchioli (Ita) Alessio-Bianchi 24.21 12 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Crédit Agricole 24.36 13 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears - Banesto 25.11 14 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 27.16 15 Richard Virenque (Fra) Quick Step-Davitamon 28.11 16 Sandy Casar (Fra) Fdjeux.com 28.53 17 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco 29.00 18 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangère 31.12 19 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 32.50 20 Stéphane Goubert (Fra) AG2R Prévoyance 37.11 2003 1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor 83.41.12 (40.94 km/h) 2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Team Bianchi 1.01 3 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Team Telekom 4.14 4 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Team CSC 6.17 5 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 6.51 6 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 7.06 7 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo 10.12 8 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 12.28 9 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 18.49 10 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com 19.15 11 Denis Menchov (Rus) iBanesto.com 19.44 12 Georg Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner 21.32 13 Peter Luttenberger (Aut) Team CSC 22.16 14 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 23.03 15 Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) Cofidis, Credit Par Telephone 24.00 16 Richard Virenque (Fra) Quick.Step-Davitamon 25.31 17 Jorg Jaksche (Ger) ONCE-Eroski 27.22 18 Roberto Laiseka (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 29.15 19 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 29.37 20 Didier Rous (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 30.14 2002 1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service 82.05.12 (39.88 km/h) 2 Joseba Beloki (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 7.17 3 Raimondas Rumsas (Ltu) LampreDaikin 8.17 4 Santiago Botero (Col) Kelme-Costa Blanca 13.10 5 Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 13.54 6 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 15.44 7 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com 16.05 8 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 17.11 9 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) US Postal Service 17.12 10 Carlos Sastre (Spa) CSC-Tiscali 19.05 11 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo 19.18 12 Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank 20.33 13 David Moncoutié (Fra) Cofidis 21.08 14 Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) Cofidis 27.51 15 Tyler Hamilton (USA) CSC-Tiscali 28.36 16 Richard Virenque (Fra) Domo-Farm Frites 28.42 17 Stephane Goubert (Fra) Jean Delatour 29.51 18 Unai Osa (Spa) iBanesto.com 30.17 19 Nicolas Vogondy (Fra) FDJeux.com 32.44 20 Nicki Sørensen (Den) CSC-Tiscali 32.56

Three-year form - green jersey standings .............................................................................. 2004 1 Robbie McEwen (Aus) Lotto-Domo 272 pts 2 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Crédit Agricole 247 3 Erik Zabel (Ger) T-Mobile Team 245 4 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Cofidis - Le Crédit Par Téléphone 234 5 Danilo Hondo (Ger) Gerolsteiner 227 6 Tom Boonen (Bel) Quick Step-Davitamon 163 7 Jean-Patrick Nazon (Fra) AG2R Prévoyance 146 8 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 143 9 Laurent Brochard (Fra) AG2R Prévoyance 139 10 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 131 2003 1 Baden Cooke (Aus) FDJeux.com 216 pts 2 Robbie McEwen (Aus) Lotto Domo 214 3 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Telekom 188 4 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Credit Agricole 173 5 Luca Paolini (Ita) Quick.Step-Davitamon 156 6 Jean-Patrick Nazon (Fra) Jean Delatour 154 7 Stuart O'grady (Aus) Credit Agricole 153 8 Fabrizio Guidi (Ita) Team Bianchi 122 9 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Team Bianchi 112 10 Damien Nazon (Fra) Bricohes La Boulangere 107 2002 1 Robbie McEwen (Aus) Lotto-Adecco 280 pts 2 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Deutsche Telekom 261 3 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Credit Agricole 208 4 Baden Cooke (Aus) FDJeux.com 198 5 Jan Svorada (Cze) Lampre Daikin 154 6 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service 119 7 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Credit Agricole 103 8 Laurent Brochard (Fra) Jean Delatour 99 9 Raimondas Rumsas (Ltu) Lampre Daikin 92 10 Santiago Botero (Col) Kelme-Costa Blanca87

Three-year form - King of the Mountains standings ......................................................... 2004 1 Richard Virenque (Fra) Quick Step-Davitamon 226 pts 2 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 172 3 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 119 4 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 119 5 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Crédit Agricole 115 6 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 115 7 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 112 8 Francisco Mancebo Pérez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 77 9 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team CSC 71 10 Axel Merckx (Bel) Lotto-Domo 65 2003 1 Richard Virenque (Fra) Quick.Step-Davitamon 324pts 2 Laurent Dufaux (Swi) Alessio 187 3 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor 168 4 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 137 5 Juan Miguel Mercado (Spa) iBanesto.com 136 6 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 130 7 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 125 8 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Team Bianchi 124 9 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Team CSC 116 10 Paolo Bettini (Ita) Quick.Step-Davitamon 100 2002 1 Laurent Jalabert (Fra) CSC-Tiscali 262 pts 2 Mario Aerts (Bel) Lotto-Adecco 178 3 Santiago Botero (Col) Kelme-Costa Blanca 162 4 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service 159 5 Axel Merckx (Bel) Domo-Farm Frites 121 6 Joseba Beloki (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 115 7 Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank 113 8 Richard Virenque (Fra) Domo-Farm Frites 107 9 Carlos Sastre (Spa) CSC-Tiscali 97 10 Raimondas Rumsas (Ltu) Lampre Daikin 96

Teams Discovery Channel Lance Armstrong (USA) George Hincapie (USA) Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) Manuel Beltran (Spa) Benjamin Noval (Spa) Pavel Padrnos (Cze) Jose Azevedo (Por) Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) T-Mobile Jan Ullrich (Ger) Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Andreas Klöden (Ger) Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) Matthias Kessler (Ger) Daniele Nardello (Ita) Stephan Schreck (Ger) Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Tobias Steinhauser (Ger) AG2R Prevoyance Mikel Astarloza (Spa) Sylvain Calzati (Fra) Samuel Dumoulin (Fra) Simon Gerrans (Aus) Stéphane Goubert (Fra) Nicolas Portal (Fra) Ludovic Turpin (Fra) Jean-Patrick Nazon (Fra) Yuriy Krivtsov (Ukr) Bouygues Telecom Anthony Geslin (Fra) Didier Rous (Fra) Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Laurent Brochard (Fra) Laurent Lefèvre (Fra) Pierrick Fédrigo (Fra) Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Walter Bénéteau (Fra) Matthieu Sprick (Fra) Cofidis Frédéric Bessy (Fra) Stéphane Augé (Fra) Cédric Vasseur (Fra) Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) David Moncoutié (Fra) Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Matthew White (Aus) Janek Tombak (Est) Thierry Marichal (Bel) Credit Agricole Laszlo Bodrogi (Hun) Pietro Caucchioli (Ita) Patrice Halgand (Fra) Sébastien Hinault (Fra) Thor Hushovd (Nor) Sébastien Joly (Fra) Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Jaan Kirsipuu (Est) Christophe Moreau (Fra) Davitamon - Lotto Mario Aerts (Bel) Christophe Brandt (Bel) Axel Merckx (Bel) Wim Vansevenant (Bel) Johan Van Summeren (Bel) Cadel Evans (Aus) Robbie McEwen (Aus) Leon Van Bon (Ned) Fred Rodriguez (USA) Domina Vacanze Alessandro Bertolini (Ita) Alessandro Cortinovis (Ita) Angelo Furlan (Ita) Andry Grivko (Ukr) Serhiy Honchar (Ukr) Maxim Iglinskiy (Kaz) Jörg Ludewig (Ger) Rafael Nuritdinov (Uzb) Alessandro Vanotti (Ita) Euskaltel-Euskadi Iban Mayo (Spa) Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Iñigo Landaluze (Spa) Unai Etxebarria (Ven) Egoi Martinez (Spa) David Herrero (Spa) Iker Camano (Spa) Mikel Artetxe (Spa) IkerFlores (Spa) Fassa Bortolo Lorenzo Bernucci (Ita) Paolo Bossoni (Ita) Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Claudio Corioni (Ita) Juan Antonio Flecha (Spa) Dario Frigo (Ita) Massimo Giunti (Ita) Volodymir Gustov (Ukr) Kim Kirchen (Lux) Francaise des Jeux Bradley McGee (Aus) Baden Cooke (Aus) Bernhard Eisel (Aut) Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Sandy Casar (Fra) Carlos Dacruz (Fra) Christophe Mengin (Fra) Francis Mourey (Fra) Gerolsteiner Levi Leipheimer (USA) Robert Förster (Ger) Sebastian Lang (Ger) Michael Rich (Ger) Ronny Scholz (Ger) Georg Totschnig (Aut) Fabian Wegmann (Ger) Peter Wrolich (Aut) Beat Zberg (Swi) Illes Balears Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Alejandro Valverde (Spa) David Arroyo (Spa) Chente García (Spa) Xabier Zandio (Spa) Daniel Becke (Spa) José Luis Arrieta (Spa) Isaac Gálvez (Spa) Lampre - Caffita Eddy Mazzoleni (Ita) Gianluca Bortolami (Ita) Salvatore Commesso (Ita) Gerrit Glomser (Aut) David Loosli (Swi) Evgeni Petrov (Rus) Daniele Righi (Ita) Alessandro Spezialetti (Ita) Gorazd Stangelj (Slo) Liberty Seguros Roberto Heras (Spa) Joseba Beloki (Spa) Alberto Contador (Spa) Allan Davis (Aus) Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) Jörg Jaksche (Ger) Luis León Sanchez (Spa) Marcos Serrano (Spa) Ángel Vicioso (Spa) Liquigas-Bianchi Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Dario David Cioni (Ita) Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Magnus Backstedt (Swe) Luciano Pagliarini (Bra) Michael Albasini (Swi) Kjell Carlström (Fin) Mauro Gerosa (Ita) Marcus Ljungqvist (Swe) Phonak Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Santiago Botero (Col) Bert Grabsch (Ger) Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) RobertHunter (RSA) Nicolas Jalabert (Fra) Floyd Landis (USA) Alexandre Moos (Swi) Steve Zampieri (Swi) Quick Step Tom Boonen (Bel) Michael Rogers (Aus) Bram Tankink (Ned) Kevin Hulsmans (Bel) Servais Knaven (Ned) Patrik Sinkewitz (Ger) Guido Trenti (USA) Stefano Zanini (Ita) Wilfried Cretskens (Bel) Rabobank Michael Boogerd (Ned) Erik Dekker (Ned) Karsten Kroon (Ned) Gerben Löwik (Ned) Joost Posthuma (Ned) Pieter Weening (Ned) Denis Menchov (Rus) Michael Rasmussen (Den) Marc Wauters (Bel) Saunier Duval Angel Gomez (Spa) Constantino Zaballa (Spa) Juan Manuel Garate (Spa) Nicolas Fritsch (Fra) Iñigo Cuesta (Spa) David Cañada (Spa) Chris Horner (USA) Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Manuel Quinziato (Ita) Team CSC Ivan Basso (Ita) Bobby Julich (USA) Jens Voigt (Ger) David Zabriskie (USA) Kurt-Asle Arvesen (Nor) Giovanni Lombardi (Ita) Carlos Sastre (Spa) Nicki Sørensen (Den) Luke Roberts (Aus)

[crackout]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Jan Ullrich is my choice. Lance Armstrong is far too small a price for someone who hasn't won a race for the first time ever going into Le Tour de France. Add to that the fact the only reason he is participating in this years event is the fact he is obligated by a sponsorship deal to enter either this year or next you have to wonder if his head really is fully in it. I don't doubt for a second he wants to win ... but he hasn't had the greatest preparation and there are far to many question marks to take a price as short as 10/11. I know many will disagree with that, but lets add to that the fact the officials don't want Armstrong to win. They have adjusted the sections where he was very strong (Prologue/TTs/Mountains) to try and even it out a little. Everything is stacked against him this year, I will be laying him big time rather than trying to pick a winner between the like of Basso, Mayo and Ullrich.

[bozzers corner]

Re: Tour de France 2005

I know many will disagree with that, but lets add to that the fact the officials don't want Armstrong to win. They have adjusted the sections where he was very strong (Prologue/TTs/Mountains) to try and even it out a little.

They (the french) have never wanted him to win it - surely they made the mountain stages last year really tough thinking he would crack - what happens? - he wins easier than the year before......can't see past him even though they have changed the event, and I think like last year people will sit and scratch their head in 3 weeks time how they missed the price offered at betfair (I'm on at 2.20 - and still get 2.08 today) Good luck all.:ok

[bozzers corner]

Re: Tour de France 2005 :clap what price Lance now then?? ;) What a legend!

[Smithy888]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Let's forget about GC for awhile and get into stage betting, though with LA at $1.45 in from $1.90 now is the time to start looking for odds on the rider most likely to win if he strikes trouble (there is still a long way to go he hopefully tells himself!). But with Ullrich obviously out of sorts after a nasty crash in training (that left him with only minor injuries but no doubt with his confidence knocked ), there are now at least five in the most likely after LA category. But trying to back someone to beat LA has driven many a cycling punter nuts over recent years so let's get into stage betting. Today's stage should end in a mass sprint with any one of about 10 riders capable of taking it out in absence of the sprint master Petacchi. I fancy Hushvod @ $5 with longer priced candidates O'Grady at $15 and Flecha. Here is a good rundown of the stages from roadbikerider.com : Le Tour, Stage by Stage

Here's a list of the Tour's 21 stages to help you anticipate the daily race action.

1. Fromentine-Noirmoutier, July 2, 19-km individual time trial. Other than an arching bridge soon after the start, the course is coastal flat and described as a "drag strip." But strong crosswinds are possible. Armstrong, starting last of the 189 riders as defending champion, will hope to make a strong psychological impact as well as open significant first-day time gaps on the climbers.

2. Challans-Les Essarts, July 3, 181 km. A flat stage for the sprinters while everyone tries to avoid the adrenalized crashes that have plagued the early stages of past Tours.

3. La Chataigneraie-Tours, July 4, 212 km. Three small climbs should barely be noticed in a stage that favors a sprint finish after long, tailwind-aided breakaways are reeled in.

4. Tour-Blois, July 5, 67.5-km team time trial. A key stage for revealing team strength and establishing time splits among the overall ("general classification" or GC) contenders. The course is flat until the final 20 km, where a series of short climbs will test strength as well as cohesive teamwork. Like last year, time losses will be determined by finishing order. The second-place team will drop 20 seconds to the winner. Each subsequent team will lose an additional 10 seconds. Thus, the 21st and slowest team will lose 3 minutes.

5. Chambord-Montargis, July 6, 183 km. The course is only slightly undulating and not expected to spawn decisive moves, so look for another bunch finish -- unless a group without GC threats succeeds in staying away, as one did early in the 2004 Tour.

6. Troyes-Nancy, July 7, 199 km. Four mild, category 4 climbs could spark breakaway activity. The final hill, 3.2-km long at a 5.2% grade, comes 13 km before the finish and could be key.

7. Luneville-Karlsruhe, July 8, 228 km. Another stage that favors a bunch finish with the sprinters leading the charge. It ends in Germany, but favorite son Eric Zabel won't win. The veteran was left off T-Mobile's Tour team.

8. Pforzheim-Gerardmer, July 9, 231 km. The biggest climb so far (a category 2) comes 15 km before the downhill finish. That should animate the stage-hunters while GC contenders play it cool ahead of the first mountains.

9. Gerardmer-Mulhouse, July 10, 171 km. Six categorized climbs, including this Tour's first category 1, are sure to open some lungs. Experts are predicting that this stage will shatter the field, ending the hopes of some GC riders with more than half the Tour remaining.

10. Grenoble-Courchevel, July 12, 192 km. After a rest day, the Tour enters the Alps. The category 1 Cormet-de-Roseland comes just past halfway in this stage, rising 20 km at an average 6% grade. The finish line is atop the 22-km, 6.2% Courchevel at 6,561 feet. In past Tours, Armstrong has proclaimed his dominance on the first mountaintop finish. No one should be surprised if he tries to do it again.

11. Courchevel-Briancon, July 13, 173 km. Here's a day for the stars to come out to play. The stage features two "beyond category" climbs, the Col de la Madeleine (25.4 km at 6.1%) and the Col du Galibier (17.5 km at 6.9%) with the category 1 Col du Telegraphe between them. All serious challengers for the yellow jersey should reach the Galibier together, where epic action is expected. A fast, 40-km descent will deliver the leaders to the finish line.

12. Briancon-Digne les Baines, July 14, 187 km. On Bastille Day, look for French riders to be feisty. This third Alpine stage isn't nearly as severe as 10 and 11 on paper, but Armstrong predicts "it's going to be a hard day. There will be some surprises for a lot of people, especially if it is very hot."

13. Miramas-Montpellier, July 15, 173 km. After the Alps, the riders take this relatively flat route toward the Pyrenees. It'll be an on-bike rest day for the GC leaders, giving ambitious also-rans the chance to break away and duke it out for a stage win.

14. Agde-Ax 3 Domaines, July 16, 220 km. A hard stage with the beyond-category Port de Pailheres (15 km at 8%) immediately followed by the finish atop Ax 3 Domaines (9 km at 7.3%). All that climbing is packed into the final 50 km.

15. Lezat sur Leze-St. Lary Soulan, July 17, 205 km. Brutal stage. Four category 1 climbs deliver the riders to the Tour's third and final mountaintop finish, the beyond-category Pla d'Adet (10.3 km at 8.3%). Not incidentally, it will be the final mountaintop finish of Armstrong's storied career. You know how BigTex reveres history.

16. Mourenx-Pau, July 19, 180 km. After the second rest day, the peloton rides out of the Pyrenees, but not without one more beyond-category climb, the Col d'Aubisque (16.5 km at 7%). Should an overall contender escape on the mountain, opposing teams have 50 flattish kilometers to pull him back before the finish.

17. Pau-Revel, July 20, 239 km. This Tour's longest stage (148 miles) has a profile like saw teeth. A category 3 climb (2.7 km at 5.1%) near the finish could spring the day's winner.

18. Albi -Mende, July 21, 189 km. Now in the Massif Central mountains, this stage has 5 categorized climbs. The last one is the toughie: the Cote de la Croix-Neuve, 3.1 km at 10.1%. If the GC is still close, the battle for precious seconds could be intense.

19. Issoire-Le Puy en Velay, July 22, 153 km. With a huge time trial to follow, no yellow-jersey contender is likely to lay it on the line in this hilly stage. A category 2 climb comes early. Look for riders who couldn't care less about the TT to hunt a stage win.

20. St. Entienne-St. Entienne, July 23, 55 km individual time trial. Forget a flat, simple TT. The course is almost never horizontal and even includes a category 3 climb (5.7 km at 4.5%). As usual with a late time trial, this one could decide the Tour for the yellow jersey wearer. He could confirm his superiority by winning the stage . . . or lose everything. Could this Tour come down to a one final mano-a-mano battle between Armstrong and Jan Ullrich?

21. Corbeil Essonnes - Paris, July 24, 144 km. Traditionally there is no racing in this stage before the peloton enters Paris for 8 laps of the Champs Elysees finishing circuit. It's a feel-good procession until the top riders on GC get safely out of the way of last-minute glory seekers.

Total: 2,236 miles (3,607 km) with 112,600 feet (34,320 meters) of climbing.

[Smithy888]

Re: Tour de France 2005 C'mon folks we need some opinions here. With two stage wins to Boonen he looks the class sprinter for the tour but the team time trial can only be won by Discovery or CSC IMO and that of the bookies. Things can go wrong in a ttt with a puncture to a key rider or sometimes things just get out of sync but the top two teams have very classy and experienced riders so an upset can virtually be ruled out. Not a fan of short odds in cycling but Discovery - based on times in the prologue and the LA factor - should be superior to CSC so 50 units on Discovery at $1.75

[Luddite71]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Smithy, I dont know enough about the sport and the merits of the individual riders/teams to contribute here. I may have some small stake dabbles at a couple of stage winners along the way but basically just to add a bit of interest to what is undoubtedly an amazing spectacle. Tremendous and concise write up from roadbikerider.com. Thanks for sharing that with us. Would be interesting to know some of the bets youre placing as the tour progresses.

[Luddite71]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Can someone please explain: Zabriskie started the day 2 seconds ahead of Armstrong Armstrongs team beat Zabriskies team by 2 seconds in todays team time trial. Apparently Zabriskie fell in the closing stages. He is now over a minute behind Armstrong. Thought all members of a team got the same time so how did he lose so much ground?? Thanks - its a quiet thread so i wont hold my breath for a reply

[Smithy888]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Without checking my copy of the UCI rules, the team time is taken on the 6th front wheel I think of the team across the line. The 7th + riders from the team get their own individual time if they have dropped off the rest of them. This was the case with Zabriskie. The only exception to this is if there is a crash in the final 1 km when the crashed rider gets the team time. Unfortunately for Zabriskie he was just outside the 1 km to go marker when he went down either from a broken chain or a clipped wheel depnding on which report you believe. My punt on Discovery now puts me into credit for the tour but let's be honest here, time trials are straightforward compared to picking winners of the other stages. So for the next month I will probably be making the easy money on the tennis and squandering it on the cycling - but this is the greatest spectacle in sport. Get on!

[AJ]

Re: Tour de France 2005 For stage 5 I see it as a sprinters finish, I've taken a small punt on Juan Antonio Flecha at 41.00 to win the stage. Boonen is doing well, but at 2.5 is far too short for my liking. Flecha has a good enough chance, but it's more an entertainment bet than anything else

[Smithy888]

Re: Tour de France 2005 Now the tipping gets tough. This should be a spinters race and only sprinters win such affairs (hill climbers/enduro guys can't sprint and the top contenders do not take any risks in the hurly burly of sprints so just cruise in buried in the pack ie don't get sucked into backing Armstrong @ $25). Would be significant upset if anyone out of the top 10 in favourtism, ie the top 10 sprinters, took it out. Boonen is at $2.50 through to Cooke @ $20. I would say there is a 20% chance of a breakaway but predicting who might be in it is nigh impossible except to say it won't be any of the top contenders on GC. For me it will be a sprinters day again: Hushvod @$8 is worth 10 units with 5 on each of Eisel and Cooke @ $20. But stage racing is a bookies benefit really. In the run betting would be great but not sure if that is offered by anyone.