Torque

£100 to £100,000 Glory Hunt (7% Complete)

160 posts in this topic

I tried this a few years ago and didn't get very far and I thought I'd try again as a contrast to my more long-term betting the favourite thread. The idea is to turn £100 into £100,000 by winning about 70 bets in a row betting the entire bank each time at odds of around 1.10. Statistically it's practically impossible and there are lots of hurdles in the way besides winning so many bets in a row, but on paper at least each bet will have a 90 percent chance of winning so in that sense it should be much harder to pick a loser than a winner. No idea what the first bet will be yet so I'll come back with that later. All bets will be placed with either Smarkets or Betfair.

*Current attempt begins on page 6*

Edited by Torque

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Lol, how did you work that 90% chance of winning :lol Just because the bookies make it 1.10 it doesn't mean it only happens 10% of the time, careful on your selections. Pascal and football betting are 2 things that shouldn't be mixed up, you may be able to do a good judgement on what you think is likely to happen based on your selection previous scores, but there isn't such a thing as probability in football, the bookies make you think there is. 

With that said, good luck in your 70 bets and remember each one of them is likely to win based on your good judgement, not on probabilities so treat each one of them as the very first one. :hope:hope

KittenSprintClub and Torque like this

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1 hour ago, MrImpossible said:

Lol, how did you work that 90% chance of winning :lol Just because the bookies make it 1.10 it doesn't mean it only happens 10% of the time, careful on your selections. Pascal and football betting are 2 things that shouldn't be mixed up, you may be able to do a good judgement on what you think is likely to happen based on your selection previous scores, but there isn't such a thing as probability in football, the bookies make you think there is. 

With that said, good luck in your 70 bets and remember each one of them is likely to win based on your good judgement, not on probabilities so treat each one of them as the very first one. :hope:hope

What I meant was that in general bookie odds are a good yardstick to go by, particularly at very short odds in my opinion. Obviously there are good 1.10 bets and bad 1.10 bets, so I'll be trying to find the good ones that arguably should be shorter than 1.10 and weed out the bad ones that probably should be higher than 1.10. That said though this isn't about finding value per se because what I need is winners - it's no good to me to find something at 1.10 that should be 1.05 that loses and that's where I'll need luck and lots of it to get anywhere near the target because even if something has 95 percent chance of happening that still leaves a 5 percent chance it wont. Completely agree with your last point by the way. :ok

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Bet number one will be Nadal to beat Sela at the ATP Masters in Miami. I'm taking the 1.07 available at Smarkets as this will give me the best return on the bet, even after commission is taken into account.

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Bet number two will be France to beat Luxembourg in World Cup 2018 Qualifying. I want 1.06 which was available but I just missed it. If I can't get it before the match starts I'll request 1.07 in-play at Smarkets.

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I can see me taking more bets at below 1.10 than above so I'll probably need nearer 100 winning bets in a row to pull this off. So 100 will be the new target.

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No problem with taking the lesser prices, it gets things up and running and there may well be bets where you get better than 1.1 to balance things off. The obvious problem happens later down the line where you're looking for the larger bets to be placed.

Edited by Skittle
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Bet three is England to beat Lithuania at 1.10 with Coral. They are also offering a free £5 bet in-play on this match so I'll use that as soon as I can to top up the bet.

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