The Little Nuggets Thread - December

[BillyHills]

Start of a new month and a fresh thread for the 'Nuggets'

Dont forget any inside info you might want to share belongs in here along with any Stat based selections.

Good luck

[BillyHills]

My first interesting stat for the month concerns Dr Richard Newland.

*He has had 27 winners at the Lincolnshire track, only Uttoxeter beats that with 28 so obviously a favourite course of his.

*In the last 3 years he has saddled 14 winners at a S/R of nearly 28%

*In good form at the moment with 3 winners from his last 9 runners

On Thursday he sends just one runner 

 

3.30 Market Rasen: Jaunty Inflight 10/11 Bet365

 

[BillyHills]

Neil Mulholland does well with his chasers at Huntingdon and has had 4 winners from just 11 runners over the last 3 seasons.

Noel Fehily rode two of those winners and is the top jockey at the track over the same period (6/18) (33% SR)

The trainers has had 2 winners over fences recently and takes just one runner to Huntingdon on Sunday and it will be ridden by Noel Fehily. 

 

1.00 Hunt: Bishops Court 9/2 Betfair

[BillyHills]

One for the AW 

Luca Cumani has  a brilliant record in non-handicaps at Lingfield, he has a 52% in the last 3 seasons

9 winners from 17 runners and shows a profit of 25pts!

His last two 2yo's have won also and on Monday he has just one runner in a 2yo non-handicap race.

Worth an EW nibble perhaps?

11.50 Ling: Dervish 14/1 Betfair 

 

[Jediknight]

Southwell 1.50 Starfield e/w (33/1 betway)

This could be worth a small each way punt at the price.  He has only ever won 4 races in his life, all of which have been on the all weather.  3 of those were here at Southwell, in fact his record at Southwell is an impresseive 3 wins from 4 runs.

[corky]

1545 kempton wed

milburn jack currently 4/1 bet365

seem to remember clive cox saying this could be smart

[BillyHills]

9 hours ago, Jediknight said:

Southwell 1.50 Starfield e/w (33/1 betway)

This could be worth a small each way punt at the price.  He has only ever won 4 races in his life, all of which have been on the all weather.  3 of those were here at Southwell, in fact his record at Southwell is an impresseive 3 wins from 4 runs.

Ran well for a long way @Jediknight worth keeping an eye on.

[BillyHills]

*Alan Swinbank has a terrific record at Hexham having had 5 winners from only 9 runners in the last 3 years.

*Jockey Paul Moloney has ridden 4 winners from just 5 runners for the yard at Hexham also.

*Moloney makes the trip up north and has just the one ride at the track on Wednesday and it's for Alan Swinbank

 

12.45 Hex: Virnon 6/1 BetVictor

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

The Legend that is..................Sir Timmy Murphy has some decent rides today

Afternoon and Evening 

If you want them I'm sure you'll find them 

[BillyHills]

16 minutes ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

The Legend that is..................Sir Timmy Murphy has some decent rides today

Afternoon and Evening 

If you want them I'm sure you'll find them 

Thats great info Jimmy, thanks

[Jimmy2shoes]

22 hours ago, corky said:

1545 kempton wed

milburn jack currently 4/1 bet365

seem to remember clive cox saying this could be smart

Another that Ran exactly to that drift in price hint

The Johnny Murtagh magic buzzer might wake him up next time 

[BillyHills]

Been looking at the past performances of the favourites for Thursday's meetings and came up with a startling stat from Warwick

Over the last 5 years a whopping 59% of all Non-Handicap Hurdle outright favourites have obliged.

Thats 41 winners from 69 selections.

We have 2 races that qualify on Thursday

12.20 and the 12.50

 

*The novice chases have a similar record so watch out for the 1.20, a Mares Listed Chase.

[BillyHills]

On 07/12/2016, 22:23:57, BillyHills said:

Been looking at the past performances of the favourites for Thursday's meetings and came up with a startling stat from Warwick

Over the last 5 years a whopping 59% of all Non-Handicap Hurdle outright favourites have obliged.

Thats 41 winners from 69 selections.

We have 2 races that qualify on Thursday

12.20 (Won 9/4) and the 12.50 (2nd fav won)

*The novice chases have a similar record so watch out for the 1.20, a Mares Listed Chase. (Won 9/4)

 

Two 9/4 winners out of the 3 selected races

[Jediknight]

Dundalk 6.35 Captain Joy (7/1 bv) and Chestnut Fire (9/4 pp)

Real battle of the course specialists here:

Captain Joy R12 W7 P10 S/R 58%W 83%P

Chestnut Fire R5 W3 P4 S/R 60%W 80%P

Interesting to see who comes out on top today, either way could be worth a reverse forecast bet

[Jediknight]

Dundalk 8.35 Sitting Bull

Interesting price variation on this, generally available at 20/1. Skybet are 22/1 and Betway go as high as 25/1, but stan james are only offering 12/1.  Do they know something the others dont?  The trainer/jockey combination are 3/3 at the track. but they are also repesented by Our Rachael in the 8.05

[BillyHills]

Horses gelded since last run?

Just one horse runs on Saturday who has been gelded since his last run, interestingly he also wears blinkers for the first time too.

I reckon we can expect a much improved run from him and he's trained by the in form Hugo Palmer (only runner on Sat) ;

3.10 New: Paris Magic 

[BillyHills]

17 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Horses gelded since last run?

Just one horse runs on Saturday who has been gelded since his last run, interestingly he also wears blinkers for the first time too.

I reckon we can expect a much improved run from him and he's trained by the in form Hugo Palmer (only runner on Sat) ;

3.10 New: Paris Magic 

Won

[BillyHills]

If anyone is interested there is just one horse running on Sunday that has been gelded since last on a race track;

Ran 4 times on the flat for Aidan O'Brien.

 

12.35 Cork: Tree Of Knowledge

 

[ralphie7]

B.H. - good call mate

3.10 New: Paris Magic...1st

[BillyHills]

Interested in Sue Smith and Danny Cook at Catterick on Tuesday

Sue Smith has an impressive 27% S/R from over 60 runners in the last 3 years for a 67pt profit

Danny Cook has ridden 11 winners for a 13pt profit over the same period.

When teaming up they are running at a profit of 27pts

2 runners for the combo on Tuesday

Vintage Clouds 1.20 Cat.

Optical High 2.20 Cat.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Gracious Tom got off the mark last time out but that was Lingfield and will find today's underfoot very different, he's up in the weights for that win and i never like backing animals after such a short break so I'll pass this bay colt over with ease.

A little cash about for Gay Kelleway's Colt and should that continue he could be interesting, Joe Fanning up-top and he very rarely rides for her ( Market Check)

Now down to the TWO i feel have this race between them.

Richard Fahey sends out just the one runner and this track is not a regular haunt for him, this 2yr old grey colt has been racing 6 times all ''2016'' and has yet to get a win on his CV, Jack Garritty gets the leg up and makes the trip for this one sole ride, the showing 9/2 and 4/1 look worth a wager.

James Given sent out one runner on 10th Dec and again yesterday 12th Dec, both took home a gold medal So it's clear to see his yard is in form, he might be under the impression he comes here under the radar but i have my eye on him now, his bay filly has been racing a total of (4 times) and again she is yet to taste a victory.

She was 3rd last time out at Chelmsford City over 7f but wasn't knocked about, today's surface might be more up her street and again the showing 6/1 - 11/2 merits a roll of the dice.

12:00 Southwell 

Scotch Mist & Poppy May

2 x single wins + small Rev F/c

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Jimmy2shoes

[BillyHills]

Neil King doesn't travel to Exeter very often, just 9 runners in the last 5 years.

Over the last couple of seasons he has had 4 winners from just 7 runners and today saddles two with each way chances.

12.30 Goodgirlteresa

3.10 Big Meadow

[BillyHills]

Favourites performances for Saturdays action

Stats over 3 years

 

Haydock 

Chase 19/82 23% (Handicaps only 18%)

Hurdles 28/92 30%

Ascot

Chase 25/84 30%

Hurdles 33/83 40%

Newcastle

Chase 33/98 34%

Hurdles 40/108 37%

Fairyhouse

Chase 39/119 33%

Hurdles 69/182 38%

Lingfield AW

Handicaps 358/1141 31%

Non-Hand 231/572 40%

 

Striking stat here is the poor performance of favourites in Chases at Haydock Park

It's even worse when you look at handicaps only.

 

Saturday 1.30 and 2.40 Handicaps (12.20 Non Handicap)

 

[BillyHills]

Fakenham Stats

You cant help but be interested in the trainer stats at a quirky littel track like Fakenham. It doesn't suit all horses.

Neil Mullholland and Noel Fehily both do well here and when they team up their strike rate is pretty impressive.

Last 3 years they have had 13 runners and won with 7 of them for a profit of 11pts

Sunday they have two runners together;

12.40: Owners Day

3.20: Admiral Kid

 

[BillyHills]

You dont have to be clever to know that David Pipe and Dr Richard Newland are making long journeys to Ayr on Monday and neither trainer will be going for the fun of it.

Just to look more into it, lets actually look at the stats;

 

D.Pipe travels 377 miles for one runner = Mango Cap (2.30)

Over the last 5 years Pipe has had 6 winners from 31 runners (3/16 with T.Scudamore)

Dr R.Newland travels 346 miles for 2 runners = Capitoul (12.50) & West Of The Edge (2.30)

Dr Newland has yet to train a winner at Ayr in four attempts. Looks like he wants to cross this one off the list.

 

Footnote:

Trainers I.Jardine, N.Richards and N.Alexander have all had 15 winners each in the last 2 seasons at Ayr.

 

 

[BillyHills]

Welsh trainers obviously have a lot of runners (and winners) at Ffos Las.

The top 3 are Evan Williams, Peter Bowen and Rebecca Curtis.

Over the last 3 years

E.Williams: 26/190 (13%) 36pts loss

P.Bowen: 24/160 (15%) 43pts loss

R.Curtis 29/104 (28%) 31pts profit

 

Rebecca Curtis saddles 2 runners today at Ffos Las

12.50: Thegirlfrommilan

2.50: Highway Storm

 

[BillyHills]

Hughie Morrison has a good record at Chelmsford since it reopened.

He has had 16 winners from 51 runners, the second best S/R behind Saeed Bin Suroor. 

From his runners he has a profit of 19pts and nearly a 50% S/R for horses being placed in the first 3.

He has had 3 winners since 13th December from just 6 runners at 3/1, 6/1 and 7/1.

On Thursday he has just one runner entered;

 

2.50 Ch: Remember Me 7/1 Bet365

 

[BillyHills]

Dundalk Favourites

Over the last 2 years the stats for the favourites have been interesting.

Overall we have seen 222 winners from 616 races (36%)

In Handicaps alone that S/R drops to 30% (116/393)

Non Handicaps it improves to 48% (106/223)

 

Today we have 3 maidens at 5.30, 6.00 and 7.00

[BillyHills]

Trainers with best 2 year S/R at Boxing Day tracks

Fontwell: P.Nicholls 15/29 (52%), N.Mulholland 16/56 (29%)
Huntingdon: J.J.O'Neill 14/41 (34%), N.Henderson 11/33 (33%)
Kempton: P.Nicholls 9/29 (36%), N.Henderson 27/83 (33%)
Market Rasen: D.Williams 3/7 (43%), H.Oliver 3/8 (38%)
Sedgefield: K.Bailey 4/7 (57%), K.Reveley 5/13 (38%)
Wetherby:  N.Mulholland 6/19 (32%), N.Twiston-Davies 6/19 (32%)
Wincanton: P.Nicholls 40/101 (40%), E.Williams 3/10 (30%)
Wolverhampton: C.Hills (8/22) 36%, S.Dow 4/11 (36%)

Leopardstown: E.Harty 5/13 (38%), W.Mullins 33/125 (26%)
Down Royal: H.De Bromhead 8/21 (38%), J.Dreaper 2/6 (33%)
Limerick: P.Fahey 5/16 (31%), W.Mullins 15/50 (30%)

 

 

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

Trainer Philip Hobbs and jockey Richard Johnson have the best combined record at Chepstow.

Individually they both appear at the top of the stats, Hobbs has had 18 winners in the last 3 years and Johnson has ridden 21 winners in the same period.

As a team they have had 10 winners from 39 runners, again the most successful of anyone.

On Welsh National day they have 4 runners together:

12.50 Sykes

1.25 Rolling Dylan

2.00 Defi Du Seuil

3.15 Drumlee Sunset