Weekend > Oct 27-31

[Sir Puntalot]

[Sir Puntalot]

[StevieDay1983]

I'm thinking of getting an over 2.5 goals or BTTS accumulator going this week. Any ideas on which matches stand out for those sort of bets? The majority of teams have scored and conceded at least 1 goal per game this season but just thinking as the season reaches its climax which teams are tightening up a bit?

Also considering a bet on Botafogo given their superb form right now. Is a -2 European Handicap win against Coritiba too far?

[gogetta]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Also considering a bet on Botafogo given their superb form right now. Is a -2 European Handicap win against Coritiba too far?

I think EH -2 is a bit risky. Botafogo straight win is likely with improved home form and it's in the midst of trying to consolidate a G6 slot for Copa Libertadores next year. Botafogo are generally not proficient goal-scorers - their game is based on solid defence, exploiting opponents' mistakes and keeping the lead.  But Coritiba is still fending off the relegation ghost and is among the defensively tight teams at the moment. Hope this helps.

[Sir Puntalot]

Sport Recife Win @ 1.91 BetVictor

[clubgowi]

Brazil Serie A: Sport Recife - Ponte Preta

Huge game for Sport, they have three of their next four on the road, including trips to two teams battling for Copa spots and sit just two points above the drop zone, with the teams immediately above them in the table having started to pick up their game(s) and points. I have spoken many times about how difficult a venue this is, Recife is a very long trip for almost every team in Brazil ( 5,400 km round trip for PP) and once here, conditions are often stifling and you are asked very different questions by both mind and body. I have no evidence, but I bet there have been a few yellow cards collected on purpose over the years, so that players miss this trip to play Sport. By the way, PP top scorer Roger sits this one out after picking up a yellow in the last game !! The hosts have a 60.27% home win record over the last four seasons, which even in a country where homes "always" run north of 50% is very impressive and to give it some context, is identical to that of Cruzeiro, who are two time champions over the same period.

Ponte Preta still have a small chance of top 6, but 11 of their 13 wins have come at home and they will have to gamble a little more than usual on the road today and that should play into the hands of Sport. The visitors have not won here in recent times and have conceded seven without scoring on their last three away days and anything other than three points for Recife would both surprise and leave them in trouble.

Sport Recife -0.75 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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[StevieDay1983]

On 27/10/2016, 10:32:42, clubgowi said:

Brazil Serie A: Sport Recife - Ponte Preta

Huge game for Sport, they have three of their next four on the road, including trips to two teams battling for Copa spots and sit just two points above the drop zone, with the teams immediately above them in the table having started to pick up their game(s) and points. I have spoken many times about how difficult a venue this is, Recife is a very long trip for almost every team in Brazil ( 5,400 km round trip for PP) and once here, conditions are often stifling and you are asked very different questions by both mind and body. I have no evidence, but I bet there have been a few yellow cards collected on purpose over the years, so that players miss this trip to play Sport. By the way, PP top scorer Roger sits this one out after picking up a yellow in the last game !! The hosts have a 60.27% home win record over the last four seasons, which even in a country where homes "always" run north of 50% is very impressive and to give it some context, is identical to that of Cruzeiro, who are two time champions over the same period.

Ponte Preta still have a small chance of top 6, but 11 of their 13 wins have come at home and they will have to gamble a little more than usual on the road today and that should play into the hands of Sport. The visitors have not won here in recent times and have conceded seven without scoring on their last three away days and anything other than three points for Recife would both surprise and leave them in trouble.

Sport Recife -0.75 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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Love these in-depth previews @clubgowi! Got any more for this round?

[Sir Puntalot]

On 10/27/2016, 10:32:42, clubgowi said:

Brazil Serie A: Sport Recife - Ponte Preta

Huge game for Sport, they have three of their next four on the road, including trips to two teams battling for Copa spots and sit just two points above the drop zone, with the teams immediately above them in the table having started to pick up their game(s) and points. I have spoken many times about how difficult a venue this is, Recife is a very long trip for almost every team in Brazil ( 5,400 km round trip for PP) and once here, conditions are often stifling and you are asked very different questions by both mind and body. I have no evidence, but I bet there have been a few yellow cards collected on purpose over the years, so that players miss this trip to play Sport. By the way, PP top scorer Roger sits this one out after picking up a yellow in the last game !! The hosts have a 60.27% home win record over the last four seasons, which even in a country where homes "always" run north of 50% is very impressive and to give it some context, is identical to that of Cruzeiro, who are two time champions over the same period.

Ponte Preta still have a small chance of top 6, but 11 of their 13 wins have come at home and they will have to gamble a little more than usual on the road today and that should play into the hands of Sport. The visitors have not won here in recent times and have conceded seven without scoring on their last three away days and anything other than three points for Recife would both surprise and leave them in trouble.

Sport Recife -0.75 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter
 

 

On 10/26/2016, 7:58:19, Sir Puntalot said:

Sport Recife Win @ 1.91 BetVictor

Go Team Recife!  

[Sir Puntalot]

Atletico PR @ 2.20 Ladbrokes

[Sir Puntalot]

Botafogo Win @ 1.60 Betfred

[gogetta]

Fluminense - Vitoria

The bookmakers have favored the home side to win largely because, after eleven months owing to the 2016 Olympics, Fluminense is finally hosting a home tie at the Maracana stadium. But this obscures the team's main failings and visiting Vitoria may spoil the party.

In June, Fluminense Coach Levir Culpi admitted that lack of squad quality and lack of finances (to improve it) were more fundamental issues this season than not playing at home. He had a largely young team, lacking the maturity to ensure consistency in performance. On the other hand, some fans were also doubtful over Levir Culpi's tactical acumen. The results in the subsequent months appeared to flatter the team but eventually these fundamental issues caught up with the team this month (October). Fluminense has not won in the last four rounds (three losses and one draw); displaying a lack of balance in defence and attack as well as deficiency of marking in midfield. In the latest game last Sunday, Fluminense drew 1-1 away to Coritiba (which was preparing for an important mid-week away tie against Atletico Nacional of Colombia in the Copa Sudamericana); but missed out on all three points due to poor finishing. Indeed, I find it surprising that in one month at this stage of the championship, a team in the top 5 has lost 10 points (or gained only one point in four rounds) but declined only four positions - from 5th to 9th - and is only two points below the G6! Paulo Autuori, the coach of Atletico Paranaense, has recently admitted the apparent lack of competitiveness in  the Serie A this season; citing his own team with poor results away from home but still well positioned to capture a slot in the Copa Libertadores!

Vitoria is in a desperate battle against relegation, having gained only 3 points in the last five rounds, and each of the remaining six rounds of the championship is treated like a cup final. Ominously, Vitoria is a mean visitor to the Maracana, walking away with all three points in the last two fixtures. For this game, Coach Argel Fucks (seriously!) is particularly boosted in the offensive sector by the return of key attacker Marino (who has missed the last three games due to injury) as well as midfielders Marcelo and Amaral plus defender Kanu (all from suspension). The return of such important players and the relegation ghost force the coach to revert to his favored away tactic since his appointment ie attack from the start, with strong marking to control the opponent.

My initial preference was BTTS and Over. But finally opted for clear Away Win at good odds.

 

 

 

[gogetta]

Match ended: Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria

The goals option came through but 1x2 did not.

[Sir Puntalot]

On 10/28/2016, 3:33:26, Sir Puntalot said:

Atletico PR @ 2.20 Ladbrokes

 

[Sir Puntalot]

Botafogo did everything but score.  

[Sir Puntalot]

America MG v Sao Paulo

I can see why Sao Paulo are favourites because they still have something to play for. I've often seen similar situations over the years in different leagues, where the relegated (virtually) team suddenly starts playing like Barcelona. It wouldn't surprise me to see America MG to get a win here, the value is certainly that way but I'll watch from a distance.