LegendMon Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Feels like an important week for this system. It will be unlikely to avoid a draw from these 10 games, but you never know! Starting Balance: 997,53 (fake money) Total Stake: 125,50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Another losing weekend for the system; hopefully this slide doesn't continue! Total Staked: 587,33 Total Returned: 565,32 Profit/Loss: -22,01 New Balance: 977,99 ROI: -2,20% Yield: -3,75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 These are the only games that are thrown up for the midweek games. Also, just as a heads up I think this could be my last post until 2017 (Christmas holidays etc, not being at home..) Starting Balance: 977,99 (fake money) Total Stake: 36,23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 Yet another losing game round; albeit quite small. Next post will be the games for this weekend, which I won't be able to update until the New Year. Total Staked: 623,56 Total Returned: 598,18 Profit/Loss: -25,38 New Balance: 974,62 ROI: -2,54% Yield: -4,07% world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 Next round of games show the following bets. Starting Balance: 974,62 (fake money) Total Stake: 60,82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I'm wondering if these systems ever work long term? Surely it can't be as easy as doing a relatively simple calculation and just sitting back and watching the money roll in? Everyone with a maths/finance degree and an interest in sport would be able to build something like this easily. There are so many factors that go into pricing up an event that I don't think it could be done for soccer. From a practical point of view, Aguero and Fernandinho were recently suspended for Man City... how is this represented in your formula? On a more simple example... Burnley are basically two different teams home and away... how is this factored in? Will their home performance have any bearing on the ratings when they play away? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Happy New Year! I will update the results from a couple of weeks ago soon, just want to response to @Division first. The Burnley question. Simple answer is yes, the performance at home is factored into the equation in someway when looking at the away rating - this also works vice versa, where the away performance affects the home rating. Just because they are performing incredibly at home doesn't necessarily mean that they are a great team overall. The same is true with someone like Manchester City; just because their home form isn't that good, doesn't mean they are a bad team. Relatively speaking, my calculations are quite simple. But you're right, someone much more qualfied than me (which is basically everyone), could come up with something more advanced pretty easily. I try to find the right mixture though, something not too arbitary (like goals), but also something not too over the top. Unfortunately all factors would be impossible - like the suspensions etc. Those kind of things I don't think have a significant affect; replacements should be just as useful, and could even improve a teams performance, especially if they want to impress the manager. I have no idea if this will work long-term, just experimenting and noting down my results on paper. Division 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not a bad run of games there, a couple of weeks ago! Back on the rise... Total Staked: 684,38 Total Returned: 671,39 Profit/Loss: -12,99 New Balance: 987,01 ROI: -1,30% Yield: -1,90% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Starting Balance: 987,01 (fake money) Total Stake: 172,49 Back for the games tonight; which is the largest stake so far I think. This could be a make it or break it situation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 This is more like it! Only one incorrect result from the above games played over the last few days. Very pleased to say we're back into some profit; hopefully this trend continues. Total Staked: 856,87 Total Returned: 896,83 Profit/Loss: +39,96 New Balance: 1039,96 ROI: +4,00% Yield: +4,66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 12/16/2016, 1:37:03, Division said: I'm wondering if these systems ever work long term? Surely it can't be as easy as doing a relatively simple calculation and just sitting back and watching the money roll in? Everyone with a maths/finance degree and an interest in sport would be able to build something like this easily. There are so many factors that go into pricing up an event that I don't think it could be done for soccer. Yes Division I have to agree entirely with your comments above but, there is nothing better than trying to find some criteria where you think you can catch the bookies (they are very rarely caught). My missus is constantly berating me as I have paper all over the place scribbling info that I pick up on this site. Yes you need to be careful, that you have backtested it for a long period and then bet small to see if you can beat the bookmaker. As the saying goes "I have yet to see a poor bookmaker" but we all still like to dabble once and all the time. Really LegendMon is testing his system at the moment, and hopefully he gets some satisfaction from what he is doing. Just for pig iron what do you mean by "Long Term" ? Division 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Next round of fixtures! Starting Balance: 1039,96 (fake money) Total Stake: 127,87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 Still on the up after this weekend's results! Total Staked: 984,74 Total Returned: 1033,56 Profit/Loss: +48,82 New Balance: 1048,82 ROI: +4,88% Yield: +4,96% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Next round of fixtures! Starting Balance: 1048,82 (fake money) Total Stake: 95,78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Another profitable weekend; just a shame about the Manchester City vs. Tottenham result, even if it was a relatively enjoyable game. Strike rate is 75,40% in case anyone is wondering. Total Staked: 1080,52 Total Returned: 1143,88 Profit/Loss: +63,37 New Balance: 1063,37 ROI: +6,34% Yield: +5,86% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 Next round of fixtures! Some interesting ones in here this week, should be an interesting weekend. Starting Balance: 1063,37 (fake money) Total Stake: 105,09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 Well, I completely forgot that it was FA Cup weekend, so the EPL games aren't being played until tomorrow. Here are the results for the two Championship games however. There should be some more game applicable ready for the midweek games too. Table will be updated in full after those! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Mixed results with some loses. Still up overall! Total Staked: 1292,57 Total Returned: 1321,04 Profit/Loss: +28,47 New Balance: 1028,47 ROI: +2,85% Yield: +2,20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Next round of fixtures! Starting Balance: 1028,47 (fake money) Total Stake: 197,97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dingo Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I'm hoping someone can help me out. How is prediction related to performance e.g. Prediction Chelsea 44.25 51 Arsenal 36 55 Performance Chelsea 52 Arsenal 39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
makkad Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It's a bit of a mystery, I think the later figures reflect the team's performance of the actual match after it took place. Regarding these later figures, "Chelsea 52 Arsenal 39" - these aren't the latest ELO ratings for sure because they are on the perfomance tab and are nothing like this. So, what are Chelsea 52 Arsenal 39 usefulness? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dingo Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Thanks for the reply If they reflect actual performance then why have rated higher but didn't win. That implies that these figures are actual prematch figures. If so, it would be handy to see them prematch I'm hopeful that someone can explain these figures in baby talk. I am pretty good at maths but my knowledge of football is limited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Only lost two of the games this weekend, but still ended up losing overall. System is still in profit though Total Staked: 1490,54 Total Returned: 1508,19 Profit/Loss: +17,65 New Balance: 1017,65 ROI: +1,76% Yield: +1,18% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Next round of fixtures! Starting Balance: 1017,65 (fake money) Total Stake: 169,87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 On 1/6/2017, 10:07:33, Xtc12 said: Yes Division I have to agree entirely with your comments above but, there is nothing better than trying to find some criteria where you think you can catch the bookies (they are very rarely caught). My missus is constantly berating me as I have paper all over the place scribbling info that I pick up on this site. Yes you need to be careful, that you have backtested it for a long period and then bet small to see if you can beat the bookmaker. As the saying goes "I have yet to see a poor bookmaker" but we all still like to dabble once and all the time. Really LegendMon is testing his system at the moment, and hopefully he gets some satisfaction from what he is doing. Just for pig iron what do you mean by "Long Term" ? First, well done to the OP. I don't think this will go anywhere but it will improve you as a bettor and make you think about different ways to price up markets and eventually you will pivot and come up with something new and take some of what you have learned from this experiment. To reply to Xtc12 when talking about long term statistically significance I would need a backtest of about 1,000 games and much more preferably 10,000. I am not a high volume bettor and will never reach 10,000 bets but my approach can't really be back tested as I look at many different factors which no formula can replicate but I started betting at 18 and lost for about the first 2 years doing the usual accumulators on the top teams. It didn't work and I looked to approach it from a range of different areas and through trial and error over the years have developed my betting strategy which has led to each season being profitable for me over the last 10 years. I only bet football and no formula will adapt to this sport well. I have seen some people using complicated algorithms have great success with baseball but I'm talking about a team of people who have maths related PhDs and quite good programmers putting in a couple of years work that are far more advanced than ELO which was originally designed for chess and people try to use it for soccer and other low scoring sports but it doesn't work but looks great when a tout tries to tell inexperienced bettors that its computer generated tips which take human emotion out of the equation and other marketing nonsense. As an experiment take a game of your choice and play manager for both teams. What are each players strengths and weaknesses? How do you expect the main players to match up against their direct opposition player? What tactics do you think each team will employ against the opposition? Can you pick a couple of teams that have a similar standard and playing style to the teams that are playing in your chosen game. How did those teams fare when they played against the opposition (and their similar teams)? What strategy did the opponent employ against these teams. 1 game should take 2 to 3 hours analysis. If you see something along the way that makes the game not appealing you can stop analyzing it so you don't spend 2 hours on every game, just the ones that look promising for a bet. Pick 2 leagues, stick to that. If some guy is tipping 8 leagues and 4 different sports he hasn't a clue how to gamble successfully, he is a sports fan that fancies a gamble. If some guy tells you he analysed 30-50 games a week and he is not a full time bettor he probably at best has some basic formula that he throws in some numbers from the league table which can't tell him if the odds on offer represent value. It doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of match analysis. The margins in this game are very small and there is little room for error. Professional sports bettors have a level stakes profit long term in the region of 4% to 8% in the vast majority of cases. If you took 100 average bettors and asked them to spend 1 season just picking 3 games a week to research and chose 1 bet I guarantee you that 80%+ would improve their net profit/loss at the end of the season and learn how to bet on sports which is very different than being a sports fan. Halerod and Xtc12 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivilearner Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 (edited) On 23/10/2016, 18:58:38, Sir Puntalot said: That's just it, there is no maximum, so it needs some thought. I'll have a think, but we're in the middle of a complete redesign (ratings look superb in the new style) too, so I might be a while. @puntalot Your rating system have being superb, looking forward to the new design soonest Edited February 11, 2017 by Rivilearner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2017-02-10 23:11:29, Division said: First, well done to the OP. I don't think this will go anywhere but it will improve you as a bettor and make you think about different ways to price up markets and eventually you will pivot and come up with something new and take some of what you have learned from this experiment. Good Morning @Division, thanks again for the post on this thread. Judging by results recently, I also don't think it will lead anywhere either. You have hit the nail on the head with your words though; I have already stopped the big accumulators and betting without some sort of knowledge or statistics or value behind a bet. Even betting a double now seems very scary to me! Not sure what I want to experiement with after this (I have some ideas), but like you said, there's far too many factors in play to accurately judge what could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 Back into the red, unfortunately. Total Staked: 1660,40 Total Returned: 1656,15 Profit/Loss: -4,25 New Balance: 995,75 ROI: -0,43% Yield: -0,26% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Fell a little bit behind with fixtures recently due to work and holidays, but I think it's a good time to stop this project for now. It's almost the end of the season and that's always a bit of a minefield anyways. This has been an awesome learning experience and will take what I've learnt forward to whatever I do next. Been an interesting journey! Icongene 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icongene Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Cheers for posting pal LegendMon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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