Citizen Kane Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Feeling a bit bored so thought I'd kick off this thread. Personally believe this test is going to be close and dour. One thing that has impressed me on the tour so far has been the Lions defence. Watched it quite closely at the Maoris game and didn't really think the Maoris were going to score at anytime during the match. Ok so McDonald did score but it was a great individual effort as the Lions did have 3/4 players covering who would have quelled the move 9/10 times. Also very concerned with AB's goalkicking cover if god forbid anything happens to Carter (even just a bad night, let alone an injury). If McDonald doesn'ty start I also think that the AB's back three while electrifying on attack is suspect on defence. Even though not 100% confident on this AB sides ability to absorb pressure (both from being unable to score if dominating possession and territory or defending for periods of time) I still expect them to take the first test and improve as series progresses. Expect the NZTab to open around 1.20/4.20 with a margin of 12/13pts. I will be very tempted to take the Lions at anything over 12pts or 6pts at H/T. Don't think I'd take the margin on if between 8 and 11. Cheers CK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alan partridge Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Just had a wee look at paddy powers odds and hes giving 10/11 for all blacks -8 points. Paddy is quality, often 1st for odds and 1st for mistakes. Im gonna have 20 points on that it looks a cert to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Paddy's match odds are: New Zealand 4/11 Draw 20/1 Lions 2/1 Agreed with Citizen Kane, this is going to be close and I'm not sure the NZ can over that 8.5pts Alan. I'm waiting for the Lions team news before diving in though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test AB by 8 points looks a bit big to me. This is definitely the test in which Lions have best chance. 1. Woodward to lay down a tactical plan -- or variations on the obvious tactical plan -- that puts the wind up oppo 2. N Hemishere ref 3. Stronger bench 4. AB's dangerous lack of cover (Get Carter factor) 5. Very strong defence I think it will be close and will definitely have a few quid on the draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Henry reveals his hand. First Test. Team: Leon MacDonald - fullback Doug Howlett - wing Tana Umaga (captain) - midfield Aaron Mauger - midfield Sitiveni Sivivatu - wing Daniel Carter - first five-eighths Justin Marshall - halfback Rodney So'oialo - No 8 Richie McCaw - Flanker Jerry Collins - Flanker Ali Williams - Lock Chris Jack - Lock Carl Hayman - Prop Keven Mealamu - Hooker Tony Woodcock - Prop Reserves: Derren Witcombe, Greg Somerville, Jono Gibbes, Sione Lauaki, Byron Kelleher, Rico Gear, Mils Muliana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citizen Kane Posted June 21, 2005 Author Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test NZTab has opened at 1.25/3.75 which usually equates to a margin of 10.5 although they usually don't post this option until 1/2 days before the match. Feeling a little more confident with MacDonald at fullback and feel that this is the strongest team the AB's could have put out for the first test, especially in regard to experience which will be key on Saturday. Haven't looked forward to a test so much for years. Roll on Saturday. Cheers CK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test I'm drawn to the HT/FT bet of NZ/[email protected] (betfair). The reason being the Lions Match fitness and the All blacks lack of match preparation. I expect the AB to take the series, but as someone has already pointed out if the Lions are to win a game this is the best chance. The AB are superior IMO, but they have played only one game this year, a 91-0 thrashing of Fiji and that should tell towards the end of the game. Only small stakes as I'm not overly confident. 2pts HT/FT NZ/Lions @9.4 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test I was expecting to see Rico Gear and Mils Muliana in the team , but I still see the Blacks winning this one - I might take the A.B. - 8 as I expect there to be a 2 score difference [ about 12 IMO ] if what C.K. is saying is correct . cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test The BIG relief for me is Marshall made the side. The only suprise is MacDonald at fullback. I think Mills is pretty unlucky here as its obvious theyve gone for the more solid man at the back compared to playing to NZs strengths and utilizing the much more attacking, and explosive Muliaina. I think MacDonald as a backup 1st 5 and goal kicker has given him the edge here. The other unlucky guy is Gibbes IMO, but u cant really argue that Collins shouldnt b there, just a shame that such a good player has to miss out on a start. Lauaki on the bench is also a bit of a suprise. Look forward to him getting on the field. Very impressive impact player. No specialist lock on the bench, or open side, which is very uncommon these days. Hope that doesnt come bakc to haunt them. Overall a very good AB team. Will take a brave man to back the Lions, especially on what theyve showed thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test And here's the England team for Saturday Jason Robinson (England) - fullback Josh Lewsey (England) - wing Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland, captain) - midfield Jonny Wilkinson (England) - midfield Gareth Thomas (Wales) - wing Stephen Jones (Wales) - first five-eight Dwayne Peel (Wales) - halfback Martin Corry (England, vice-captain) - No 8 Neil Back (England) - flanker Richard Hill (England) - flanker Ben Kay (England) - lock Paul O'Connell (Ireland) - lock Julian White (England) - prop Shane Byrne (Ireland) - hooker Gethin Jenkins (Wales) - prop Reserves: Steve Thompson (England), Graham Rowntree (England), Danny Grewcock (England), Ryan Jones (Wales), Matt Dawson (England), Will Greenwood (England), Shane Horgan (Ireland) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test England 13 of 22 Wales 5! and Scotland.... 0 There'll be some very grumpy Welshmen in the huge Lions crowd. Unless Woodward does in fact know what he's doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Ridiculous amount of Welshmen considering we won the Grand Slam in style this season! Good to see Peel getting his chance, been very impressive on tour so far, an unsung hero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Thing is David where possibly could you have any more Welshmen in there? Ryan Jones - stormer last week, and is justifiably on the bench. Hensen - two tries against a very poor Southland side, but he played poor and has played poor on the tour - Woodword does not like him. Michael Owen has had a bad tour too. I'm surprised Wilkinson is starting though:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Wales Grand Slam was a remarkable achievement, but to put it in a bit of context it was achieved against very understregth English and French sides. I hear quite frequently and read in this forum that Wales is under-represented in the Lions No1 team based on their Six Nations form But I echo Matty on this one, I think the balance is pretty much right. With JW, I agree hes not in top shape at the moment, but on class alone he has to be in there, especially given that theres not much world beating class in the Lions squad to begin with. They need to take the gamble and play him if they have any chance of winning this first test. Correct me if Im wrong but he did start his career at 12 too. So hes not unfamiliar with the position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test 8 English, 3 Irish & 4 Welsh players. Zero Scottish players. As a Scot living in NZ, there is no way I can support that so called "British" Lions team. It's a pretty much English team, and I hope they get stuffed. FFS how in the name of god does Johnny Wilkinson justify a starting test place, he hasn't kicked a ball all season due to injury, and in the one lions start he's had on tour, his kicking was suspect to say the least. I'm pledging my allegiance to my adopted home and the All Blacks. I hope they stuff the poms on saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Woodward won the World Cup if you don't remember - I think he has a better idea of who to pick than all these bitter Welsh/Scottish fans. England were shit in the 6 nations, but the fact is they have a lot of quality players, and if Woodward thinks he can get them to play as a team (unlike Robinson managed in the 6 nations) then he has to pick them. Woodward was never going to go for loads of the Welsh players, as their play is based on attacking play by the backs, whereas Woodward tries to win the forward battle. Foolsgold - Which Scots would you have selected? I honestly don't think that any of them are good enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test FFS Wilkinson hasn't played a test match in 2 years and hes now playing centre against the best side in the world bar Wales! He's going to have to make some huge tackles something hes failed to do on occasions thus far. If Woodward wants the golden child in he should play him at 10 and include Henson who tackles like a prop in the centre alongside another monster in O'Driscoll. The bench is beyond a joke as well! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test All I can say is that people will know me on here as about the least patriotic person there is. I was happy when Wales got the Grand Slam and I was half supporting NZ in the World Cup. So I'm just saying it as I see. Let's face it, if he'd played Wilkinson instead of Jones, and put Henson in the centre, you'd be complaining about that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test All I can say is that people will know me on here as about the least patriotic person there is. I was happy when Wales got the Grand Slam and I was half supporting NZ in the World Cup. So I'm just saying it as I see. Let's face it' date= if he'd played Wilkinson instead of Jones, and put Henson in the centre, you'd be complaining about that too. That would of made more sense than what hes choosen so far and I can understand Foolsgolds comments. Its supposed to be a British & Irish Lions side not a England World Cup Winning Swansong party! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Ok, let's play 4 from each country (we'll take 3 English just to make you happy) and get absolutely destroyed. Can you name a Scottish player who is good enough to be in the team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Henson who tackles like a prop in the centre :lol Did you see him s##t out yesterday against Southland - tried to shoulder the bloke:lol Fools - did you support the Lions vs Australia in 2001? They showed the numbers from each nationality that started the 1st test on sKY earlier 2001 England 8 Wales 3 Ireland 4 Scotland 0 2005 England 8 Wales 4 Ireland 3 Scotland 0 Can't see on pure statistics that Woodward is any more bias than Graham Henry in 2001. If he was he'd play his World Cup winners Thompson, Dawson and Greenwood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test World Cup winners Thompson Please never say that again :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Dave - it is quite embarrassing isn't it:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Foolsgold - Which Scots would you have selected? I honestly don't think that any of them are good enough. Honestly, I'd have to say your right :( , Taylor at a push, but would it have killed him to even put a token Scot on the bench. Fools - did you support the Lions vs Australia in 2001? Honestly can't remember, unlikely though, I don't think the lions tour in 2001 really made my rader to be honest. It's only in the past 2 years, that I've started watching rugby. It's different now that I live in NZ, Rugby is everywhere it's an overwhelming obsession here, it can't be avioded. My last post was just emotional fustration at the state of scottish rugby. Back to business, having now seen the team, All Blacks -8 looks a good pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Fools - The media over there seem to be expecting a big All Blacks win, what about the locals? Be interested to know. Did Robinson play at fullback, and Lewsey on wing in World Cup? And also against All Blacks in 2003 on the summer tour - that's the only thing I can think of why SCW has done that? But Robinson is not on form..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Just checked out a couple of old match reports. Lewsey played fullback, and Robinson on the wing in 2003:\ Oh Dave - you'll like this. Player ratings from England's win in NZ and England's world cup win Steve Thompson: Solid in the pack and around the park - but again showed his weakness with a number of shaky lineout throws. Steve Thompson: A game of two halves. Struggled to find his jumpers in the lineout during the first 40, but enjoyed a dominating performance in the latter stages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test To be fair to the Jocks, some of the medical team are Scottish as is Ian McGeechan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Struggled to find his jumpers in the lineout during the first 40 :lol Has he ever not struggled to throw the ball in at the line out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Robinsons annother guy they have to put iin there. Personally I dont think hes a great player but he does have the attacking game breaking potential. As Ive said before, its what the Lions are really lacking at the moment. To have any chance they will need a few guys to really step up, and obviously, and rightly so IMO, they are giving 2 of their biggest stars (who granted arent in great form) the oppertunity to do so. Could be a disaster, but its a risk, given their current situation, they have to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Re: All Blacks v Lions 1st Test Robinson's expected to play on the wing (even though named at full-back) where he always used to play anyway. Recent poor form has been because teams have now adapted to him running with the ball from full back + just make sure they stop him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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