Hotshots Betting

[harry_rag]

I'll try and keep this brief, I can always expand on the explanations if necessary!

Previously - I had a thread for tryscorer bets on Rugby which started well and fizzled out somewhat, grinding to a halt towards the end of last year. I expressed an intention to start a new thread but never got round to doing so. https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/139398-rugby-union-tryscorer-bets/?do=findComment&comment=2507164

Currently - The approach evolved to only considering bets on the players named as "Hotshots" by the spread firms rather than looking at every player that was priced up in the tryscorer markets. This meant I could look at more games whilst focusing on the players most likely to score. It also extended to include football as well. Potential bets are buying or (occasionally) selling the hotshots, buying individual players' try or goal minutes or backing them in the fixed odds try/goalscorer markets.

What are "Hotshots"? - The spread firms price up 4 players (per game for football, per team for rugby) and quote a price based on 25 points per goal or try scored and 8 points per player not taking any part in the game. For example, one firm is quoting 31-34 for Hotshots in tonight's France/Iceland game, the named players being Giroud, Griezmann, Sigthorsson and Sigurdsson. Buyers would need at least two goals scored by those players to show a profit (2 x 25 = 50 for a 16 point profit on a buy at 34) while sellers would need less than 2 (no goals = 0 for the maximum profit of 31 points on a sell). Selling is the riskier proposition in terms of limited upside and potentially heavy downside.

What's the aim of this thread? - Build up a sample of games to see how often there is a potential bet (buy or sell) in the Hotshots market and how the bets would perform, and whether my attempts to price up the market have any merit compared to a strategy of blindly buying or selling. I will arrive at my own indicative price and compare it to the prices on offer. Games will be classified as follows based on any perceived edge:

A = edge of 15% or more

B = edge of 10% up to 14.99%

C = edge of 5% up to 9.99%

D = edge of less than 5%

E = no edge ("true" price is within the spread)

Hopefully that makes sense to anyone familiar with spread betting and it will become clearer as I start to post some selections. This is for monitoring purposes so is essentially going to be paper trading, though I will indicate where I've had an actual bet as a result of taking a closer look at player stats etc. In practice I tend to only take a closer look at bets with an apparent edge of at least 5%.

[clarky101]

Good luck H, like a spread bet myself...

[harry_rag]

Cheers, hopefully be of interest as it unfolds. Market price for the France/Iceland hotshots (Giroud, Griezmann, Sigthorsson and Sigurdsson) is 31-33 and my indicative price is 33 so that makes it category E (no edge). Part of what I'm hoping to track is how often that's the case compared to when a price appears to offer a sliver of value.

[clarky101]

Quote

Shame......would of been a winning start.....

 

[harry_rag]

Yeah, 4 goals so made up at 100. Would have been great to have bought, less so to have been a seller! Fair to say there's not been a lot of encouragement for betting on goals generally in this tournament.

So far you'd have been 67 points up blindly buying the hotshots but I think it's fair to say we'll need a bit more data than that to start drawing any conclusions! 

[clarky101]

Quite correct, will be watching this with interest,.  Good luck...

[harry_rag]

Market price for the Wales/Portugal hotshots (Ronaldo, Nani, Bale and Robson-Kanu) is 31-32 and my indicative price is 33 so that makes it category D (<5% edge).

No actual bet for me for a few reasons, minimal perceived edge, no time for a full study and already on the Bale x Ronaldo multi goals bet posted in the footy thread.

Will be happy if this makes up at 100 as long as those 2 provided the goals!

[harry_rag]

Both goals were by hotshots but not, unfortunately, the two I wanted for my multi goals bet! Makes up at 50 so a strategy of blind buying would see you 85 points to the good after 2 bets with an 18 point return from the 1 bet that appeared to offer any edge.

It will be a while before these numbers have any significance so I wouldn't advocate jumping aboard the "blindly buying" train just yet!

Will most likely have a look at tomorrow's semi then it's likely to be some of the Super Rugby games. The big advantage that rugby has is the teams and prices being available the night before rather than just an hour in advance of kick off.

[harry_rag]

We have two slightly different sets of hotshots for tonight's Germany/France game. SPIN offer Muller, Ozil, Giroud and Griezmann at 24-27 while Spreadex have Draxler rather than Ozil and go 25-29.

I make the first quartet worth 27.75 so that's category D, <5% edge. The second I make 28.25 so E, no edge.

No bet for me as it stands.

[harry_rag]

Tomorrow's first Super Rugby games, Blues/Brumbies.

Blues hotshots are West, Li, Duffie and Nanai. Market price 28-29, my price 26.74. That would point to a sell at 28 as a category D bet (<5% edge). That's no bet for me, though I have bought Duffie's try minutes at 10 with Spreadex. Yet to score in his 4 starts since swapping codes, scored 37 tries in 62 NRL starts. Sub 2/1 anytime in a lot of places, starts to become of interest at the best price 3/1 but I'll risk a buy at a price that I'd equate to closer to 4/1 anytime. I could make a case for West at 4/1 anytime with Coral; 4 in 12 starts this season though none in 10 last season, but I'll stick with just the Duffie bet.

Brumbies hotshots with SPIN are Dargaville, Kuridrani, Ah Wong and Toua, priced at 34-38 but my price is 28.49. That would strongly point to a sell at 34 as an A bet (>15% edge). No bet for me as I tend to rarely be a seller for the same reason I don't often bet at long odds on. If you're made of sterner stuff, I wouldn't put you off a cautious sell as only Ah Wong had decent looking stats (11/4 anytime with Coral not the worst of bets).

Spreadex have Moore in rather than Toua and his 7 tries in 12 starts make 3/1 anytime look a reasonable shout. It's unusual for a front 5 player to be included in the hotshots but understandable with his stats. I've actually bought the Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX. They weigh in with more than their fair share and got 3 last week for a make up of 125.

[harry_rag]

A slightly more succinct write up for the Reds/Chiefs game!

Reds hotshots are Kuridrani, Kerevi, Nabuili with either Tuttle at 29-33 or Frisby at 28-31. I make the first quartet worth 27.33 and the second 29.07. That makes them a category C sell (5-9.99% edge) and category E (no edge). 

Chiefs are McKenzie, Pulu, Tamanivalu and Lowe, market price 56-59, my price 55.23. That would be a category D sell (<5% edge).

No bet on either for me and no other bets make any appeal.

[harry_rag]

Ok, a few realisations here. Some of the posts can be a bit busy, especially for rugby where there are two sets of hotshots with different firms potentially including different players. For that reason, I've decided to only post one set of hotshots per game (the one that offers the best perceived edge). I've got a format in mind that should make the posts easier to follow, with a bit less waffle. In terms of the data recorded so far, I'm going to omit the second set of hotshots for Germany/France and Red/Chiefs in accordance with the above principle. (The results would be better with them included rather than omitted.) That means, thus far, there have been the following 7 selections:

1. France/Iceland hotshots at 31-33, my price 33 (category E - no bet) made up at 100
2. Portugal/Iceland hotshots at 31-32, my price 33 (category D - buy) made up at 50, +18 points
3. Germany/France hotshots at 24-27, my price 27.75 (category D - buy) made up at 50, +23 points
4. Blues hotshots at 28-29, my price 26.74 (category D - sell) made up at 50, -22 points
5. Brumbies hotshots at 34-38, my price 28.49 (category A - sell) made up at 0, +34 points
6. Reds hotshots at 29-33, my price 27.33 (category C - sell) made up at 25, +4 points
7. Chiefs hotshots at 56 to 59, my price 55.23 (category D - sell) made up at 100, -44 points

So far, 1 no bet and 6 potential bets (albeit 4 at the minimum <5% edge), 4 winners and 2 losers, +13 points.

No actual hotshots bets for me so far, +83 points on the buy of Duffie's try minutes and -24 on the buy of Brumbies front 5 try minutes.

[harry_rag]

8. Waratahs hotshots (Carraro, Folau, Naiyaravoro and Kelleway) - market price 44-46, my price 43.31, category D sell

9. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, J. Savea and Jane) - SPIN price 36-40, my price 36.34, category E no edge

No actual bets on this game.

[harry_rag]

10. Bulls hotshots (Ismaiel, Swanepoel, Ulengo and van Zyl) - SX price 83-88, my price 76.16, category C sell

11. Sunwolves hotshots (Saskura, Carpenter, Yamashita, Viljoen) - market price 28-30, my price 28.78, category E no edge

No hotshots bets. Selling the Bulls at 83 has some appeal but 3 relatively recent 3 figure make ups for Sunwolves opposition put me off. Have bought van Zyl's try minutes at 12 with SPIN and backed Carpenter to score a try at 16/5 with BF Sportsbook (13/4 with Betway). The former has 11 tries in 66 Super Rugby apperances, 7 coming in his 33 starts. Looks cheap against tomorrow's opponents and much better value that the 11/10 anytime price. Carpenter has 5 tries, scoring in 4 of his 8 starts.

[harry_rag]

12. Force hotshots (Morahan, Godwin, Brache, D. Haylett-Petty) - SPIN price 11-14, my price 15.7, category B buy

13. Stormers hotshots (Zas, de Allende, D. du Plessis and van Wyk) - SPIN price 26-29, my price 24.71, category C sell

At last, an actual hotshots bet! Buy Force hotshots at 14 with SPIN. Fits my general "buy low, sell high" approach. A poor team and not a particularly prolific quartet but still think the price underestimates the prospect of them managing at least a single try.

Have also had an interest in Notshe who features in SX's Stormers hotshots. 9/2 anytime and 33/1 2 or more with PP with a small top up buy of his try minutes at 10 with SPIN.

[clarky101]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

12. Force hotshots (Morahan, Godwin, Brache, D. Haylett-Petty) - SPIN price 11-14, my price 15.7, category B buy

13. Stormers hotshots (Zas, de Allende, D. du Plessis and van Wyk) - SPIN price 26-29, my price 24.71, category C sell

At last, an actual hotshots bet! Buy Force hotshots at 14 with SPIN. Fits my general "buy low, sell high" approach. A poor team and not a particularly prolific quartet but still think the price underestimates the prospect of them managing at least a single try.

Have also had an interest in Notshe who features in SX's Stormers hotshots. 9/2 anytime and 33/1 2 or more with PP with a small top up buy of his try minutes at 10 with SPIN.

Must of missed this one as I can't find it on spin....

[harry_rag]

28 minutes ago, clarky101 said:

Must of missed this one as I can't find it on spin....

Apologies mate, it wasn't posted much before the 12:55 scheduled start, though it saved you money if you might have followed! I'd normally post much earlier for rugby games with the teams being available the day before. In this case, one of the spread firms didn't have prices up last night so I looked at a later game instead and did this one today when all relevant prices were available. Results update to follow.

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

8. Waratahs hotshots (Carraro, Folau, Naiyaravoro and Kelleway) - market price 44-46, my price 43.31, category D sell

9. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, J. Savea and Jane) - SPIN price 36-40, my price 36.34, category E no edge

No actual bets on this game.

8. made up at 50 so the sell would have lost 6 points

9. made up at 75

[harry_rag]

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

10. Bulls hotshots (Ismaiel, Swanepoel, Ulengo and van Zyl) - SX price 83-88, my price 76.16, category C sell

11. Sunwolves hotshots (Saskura, Carpenter, Yamashita, Viljoen) - market price 28-30, my price 28.78, category E no edge

No hotshots bets. Selling the Bulls at 83 has some appeal but 3 relatively recent 3 figure make ups for Sunwolves opposition put me off. Have bought van Zyl's try minutes at 12 with SPIN and backed Carpenter to score a try at 16/5 with BF Sportsbook (13/4 with Betway). The former has 11 tries in 66 Super Rugby apperances, 7 coming in his 33 starts. Looks cheap against tomorrow's opponents and much better value that the 11/10 anytime price. Carpenter has 5 tries, scoring in 4 of his 8 starts.

10. made up at 75 so the sell would have won 8 points

11. made up at 0

Neither van Zyl or Carpenter scored so both my actual bets lost.

[harry_rag]

6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

12. Force hotshots (Morahan, Godwin, Brache, D. Haylett-Petty) - SPIN price 11-14, my price 15.7, category B buy

13. Stormers hotshots (Zas, de Allende, D. du Plessis and van Wyk) - SPIN price 26-29, my price 24.71, category C sell

At last, an actual hotshots bet! Buy Force hotshots at 14 with SPIN. Fits my general "buy low, sell high" approach. A poor team and not a particularly prolific quartet but still think the price underestimates the prospect of them managing at least a single try.

Have also had an interest in Notshe who features in SX's Stormers hotshots. 9/2 anytime and 33/1 2 or more with PP with a small top up buy of his try minutes at 10 with SPIN.

12. made up at 0 so the buy lost 14 points

13. made up at 50 so the sell would have lost 24 points

As well as the loss on the Force hotshots buy, Notshe didn't score any tries so all actual bets lost.

[clarky101]

Never mind.......keep going although as you know spreads can be brutal...

[harry_rag]

One more game today, a 10:40 start.

14. Jaguares hotshots (Montero, De La Fuente, Cordero and Tuculet) - SPIN price 26-29, my price 22.97, category B sell

15. HIghlanders hotshots (Osborne, Fekitoa, Naholo and B. Smith) - Market price 49-52, my price 50.58, category E no edge

No hotshots bets, I've just had an anytime bet on Landajo at 15/4 with 888. He appears in SX's Jaguares hotshots and I don't think he should be that big a price, with 6 tries in 11 starts. Also couldn't resist a couple of quid on the 25/1 they offer for him to score the 1st try.

With regard to the apparently decent edge in selling Jaguares hotshots, I'd currently rarely sell at all and probably only at prices greater than 50 so that I could still make a profit if 2 tries are scored. Even if I was willing to sell at such a comparatively low price, I wouldn't fancy it in this instance having looked at the relevant players' stats. Having said all that, part of the rationale for this exercise is to see if I'm right or wrong in being so wary of selling in this market.

[harry_rag]

17 hours ago, harry_rag said:

One more game today, a 10:40 start.

14. Jaguares hotshots (Montero, De La Fuente, Cordero and Tuculet) - SPIN price 26-29, my price 22.97, category B sell

15. HIghlanders hotshots (Osborne, Fekitoa, Naholo and B. Smith) - Market price 49-52, my price 50.58, category E no edge

No hotshots bets, I've just had an anytime bet on Landajo at 15/4 with 888. He appears in SX's Jaguares hotshots and I don't think he should be that big a price, with 6 tries in 11 starts. Also couldn't resist a couple of quid on the 25/1 they offer for him to score the 1st try.

14. made up at 0 so the sell would have won 26 points

15. made up at 25

The bets on Landajo lost. Small loss for me on actual bets, with the profit on Duffie try minutes considerably softening the blow. Shame I didn't "stop at a winner" though! 

[harry_rag]

The Euros final tonight will be the last activity of the weekend. Normally, with football, it's a matter of having to wait for the lineups to be announced before the hotshots prices will be up but, as SPIN have been putting up prices earlier for games in the Euros, it's possible to do a bit of a preview.

They've gone with Ronaldo, Nani, Griezmann and Giroud at 29-32 and I'd make the true price around 32 so potentially no edge but with the buy looking better than the sell.

The Portugal pair have weighed in with 3 goals apiece so far for hotshots totals of 25, 0, 75, 0, 0 and 50 giving an average contribution of 25 points.

The French "G-men" have weighed in with 6 and 3 for totals of 25, 25, 8, 50, 75 and 50 giving an average of 38.83. (The 8 points is for Giroud not featuring and the second 25 points was from Griezmann scoring having come on as a sub). So the average in the 4 games that both have started is 50.

On that basis I'd be inclined to consider a buy if, when the line-ups are known, there's a price that appears to offer a bit of value.

[harry_rag]

6. Portugal/France hotshots (Ronaldo/Nani) - SPIN price 26-29, my price 31.75, category C buy

As per the above post, the 3 point drop in the price is enough to convince me to go in for an actual bet on this selection.

[harry_rag]

Made up at zero for a 29 point loss.

Update to follow early in the week.

[harry_rag]

I'm still finalising the spreadsheet I'm recording the results in but here's a quick bit of analysis of the selections posted so far.

16 selections, blind buying or selling would have yielded 8 winners each but the latter would see you 42 points up as opposed to 88 points down for the latter.

Of the 12 selections that offered any edge, 6 won and 6 lost for a loss of 26 points.

Buys went 2-2 for -2 points and sells went 4-4 for -24 points.

By category, the bets performed as follows:

A: 1-0 +34 points

B: 1-1 +12 points

C: 2-2 -41 points

D: 2-3 - 31 points

The two actual hotshots bets both lost for a total loss of 43 points.

[harry_rag]

17. Blues hotshots (West, Li, Duffie and Nanai) - SPIN price 39-43, my price 34.88, category B sell

18. Waratahs hotshots (Carraro, Folau, Robinson and Kelleway) - Market price 38-41, my price 38.08, category E no edge

No actual bets on those for me, just an anytime bet on Kaino (who SX have in place of West in the Blues hotshots) at 16/5 with PP.

[harry_rag]

19, Reds hotshots (Kuridrani, Kerevi, Nabuli and Frisby) - SX price 41-45, my price 44.78, category E no edge

20, Rebels hotshots (Asquith, Naivalu, Hodge and English) - SX price 51-55, my price 49.71, category D sell

No actual bets on those for me, have backed Naivalu and Hodge anytime at 6/4 with 888. I'd say the prices hovering either side of evens are about right, In the Rebels' last 7 games, both have scored in 4 and one in the other 3. Have also bought Banks' try minutes at 11 with SX (SPIN have him in place of Frisby). His first start and can find out precious little about him but just feel he's a bit too cheap at the price.

[harry_rag]

21. Sharks hotshots (Mvovo, Pietersen, Ndungane and Smith) - market price 89-91, my price 85.17, category D sell

22. Sunwolves hotshots (Saskura, Carpenter, Yamashita and Viljoen) - market price 23-24, my price 20.64, category B sell

No bets at all on this game for me, a one sided affair with no appealing prices.