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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Hotshots Betting


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44. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, Woodward and Jane) - Market price 37-36, my price 28.49, category A sell

45. Lions hotshots (Skosan, van Rensburg, Mapoe and Combrinck) - Market price 25-26, my price 26.16, category D buy

Super Rugby bows out with something of a conundrum that currently is a "no bet" proposition. I was very tempted to go with the Hurricanes sell at 37 until I took a closer look but the average make up over their last 10 games has been 37.5 with 6 going over the spread, That includes 4 games where Woodward was only a sub and another where Jane took no part. The player stats were nudging me towards buying the combined try minutes at 52 which I'd equate to a hotshots price of around 30. With rain forecast during the game though, it would be hard to bet on tries if it meant going against the original clear indication to sell hotshots!

The Lions quartet look cheap on their stats but, again, the weather is a negative and the apparent edge is next to nothing so not betting seems prudent.

I think this one is just to be filed under "watch and learn"!

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