harry_rag Posted July 15, 2016 Author Share Posted July 15, 2016 21 hours ago, harry_rag said: 17. Blues hotshots (West, Li, Duffie and Nanai) - SPIN price 39-43, my price 34.88, category B sell 18. Waratahs hotshots (Carraro, Folau, Robinson and Kelleway) - Market price 38-41, my price 38.08, category E no edge No actual bets on those for me, just an anytime bet on Kaino (who SX have in place of West in the Blues hotshots) at 16/5 with PP. 17. made up at 25 so the sell would have won 14 points 18. also made up at 25 No joy with the bet on Kaino to score a try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 15, 2016 Author Share Posted July 15, 2016 21 hours ago, harry_rag said: 19, Reds hotshots (Kuridrani, Kerevi, Nabuli and Frisby) - SX price 41-45, my price 44.78, category E no edge 20, Rebels hotshots (Asquith, Naivalu, Hodge and English) - SX price 51-55, my price 49.71, category D sell No actual bets on those for me, have backed Naivalu and Hodge anytime at 6/4 with 888. I'd say the prices hovering either side of evens are about right, In the Rebels' last 7 games, both have scored in 4 and one in the other 3. Have also bought Banks' try minutes at 11 with SX (SPIN have him in place of Frisby). His first start and can find out precious little about him but just feel he's a bit too cheap at the price. 19. made up at 50 20. made up at 25 so the sell would have won 26 points No joy with any of the actual bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 15, 2016 Author Share Posted July 15, 2016 21 hours ago, harry_rag said: 21. Sharks hotshots (Mvovo, Pietersen, Ndungane and Smith) - market price 89-91, my price 85.17, category D sell 22. Sunwolves hotshots (Saskura, Carpenter, Yamashita and Viljoen) - market price 23-24, my price 20.64, category B sell No bets at all on this game for me, a one sided affair with no appealing prices. 21. made up at 50 so the sell would have won 39 points 22. made up at 0 so the sell would have won 23 points A day to have followed the suggested sells, but not, unfortunately, my actual bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 15, 2016 Author Share Posted July 15, 2016 23. Crusaders hotshots (Nadolo, Crotty, McNicholl and Dagg) - SPIN price 42-46, my price 45.35, category E no edge 24. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, J Savea and Jane) - SPIN price 31-35, my price 25, category A sell No bets for me, despite the apparent huge margin on the Hurricanes sell. Too much downside for my taste if the worst should happen and I'm happy enough to build up a record of how these bets would perform. I do think that Perenara and Jane try minutes are a little on the low side and have bought the former at 9 and the latter at 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 15, 2016 Author Share Posted July 15, 2016 25. Force hotshots (Morahan, Tapuai, Brache and D Haylett-Petty) - Market price 26-28, my price 27.91, category E no edge I can't price up the Brumbies hotshots as both firms have included Moore who's one of the front 5. I do think, though, that SX have substantially overpriced the quartet of Ah Wong, Dargaville, Cubelli and Moore at 65-70. SPIN go 57-61 with Toua rather than Cubelli and I'd find it hard to explain much of a price difference between the 2 sets of players. I think I'll just maintain a watching brief but that looks like a strong sell to me at 65. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 14 hours ago, harry_rag said: 23. Crusaders hotshots (Nadolo, Crotty, McNicholl and Dagg) - SPIN price 42-46, my price 45.35, category E no edge 24. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, J Savea and Jane) - SPIN price 31-35, my price 25, category A sell No bets for me, despite the apparent huge margin on the Hurricanes sell. Too much downside for my taste if the worst should happen and I'm happy enough to build up a record of how these bets would perform. I do think that Perenara and Jane try minutes are a little on the low side and have bought the former at 9 and the latter at 12. 23. made up at 25 24. made up at 50 so the sell would have lost 19 points Perenara scored a 40th minute try so the 2 actual bets returned a 19 point profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 26. Stormers hotshots (Zas, De Allende, Van Wyk and Taute) - Market price 76, my price 68.31, category B sell 27. Kings hotshots (Mjekevu, Watermeyer, Am and Jaer) - Market price 25-28, my price 26.45, category E no edge No bets at all for me, in a pretty one sided contest (Stormers at least 30 points favourites). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 28. Cheetahs hotshots (Rhule, Small-Smith, Petersen, Blommetjies) - Market price 37-40, my price 39.24, category E no edge 29. Bulls hotshots (Ismaeil, Odendall, Ulengo and Kriel) - SPIN price 48-52, my price 47.97, category D sell No bets on the hotshots but 2 other Cheetahs players have caught my eye. Both had try minutes quotes that made them potential hotshots selections and implied they'd be around 2/1 anytime. Given their stats I couldn't resist backing Cassiem anytime at 7/2 with 888 and Paul Schoeman anytime at 9/2 and 2 or more at 17/1 with PP. Very small bet on the 2 or more, next best 4/1 for Schoeman still decent. Oh, and watch your Schoemans as there's a few of them listed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 14 hours ago, harry_rag said: 25. Force hotshots (Morahan, Tapuai, Brache and D Haylett-Petty) - Market price 26-28, my price 27.91, category E no edge I can't price up the Brumbies hotshots as both firms have included Moore who's one of the front 5. I do think, though, that SX have substantially overpriced the quartet of Ah Wong, Dargaville, Cubelli and Moore at 65-70. SPIN go 57-61 with Toua rather than Cubelli and I'd find it hard to explain much of a price difference between the 2 sets of players. I think I'll just maintain a watching brief but that looks like a strong sell to me at 65. 25. made up at 25 The Brumbies hotshots made up at 0 so a shame I didn't have the confidence to go with something that looked "like a strong sell to me at 65"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 8 hours ago, harry_rag said: 26. Stormers hotshots (Zas, De Allende, Van Wyk and Taute) - Market price 76, my price 68.31, category B sell 27. Kings hotshots (Mjekevu, Watermeyer, Am and Jaer) - Market price 25-28, my price 26.45, category E no edge No bets at all for me, in a pretty one sided contest (Stormers at least 30 points favourites). 26. made up at 75 so the sell would have won 1 point 27. made up at 75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 7 hours ago, harry_rag said: 28. Cheetahs hotshots (Rhule, Small-Smith, Petersen, Blommetjies) - Market price 37-40, my price 39.24, category E no edge 29. Bulls hotshots (Ismaeil, Odendall, Ulengo and Kriel) - SPIN price 48-52, my price 47.97, category D sell No bets on the hotshots but 2 other Cheetahs players have caught my eye. Both had try minutes quotes that made them potential hotshots selections and implied they'd be around 2/1 anytime. Given their stats I couldn't resist backing Cassiem anytime at 7/2 with 888 and Paul Schoeman anytime at 9/2 and 2 or more at 17/1 with PP. Very small bet on the 2 or more, next best 4/1 for Schoeman still decent. Oh, and watch your Schoemans as there's a few of them listed! 28. made up at 25 29. made up at 75 so the sell would have lost 27 points No joy with the bets on Cassiem or Schoeman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 30. Jaguares hotshots (Monetro, Hernandez, Cordero and J Tuculet) - SPIN price 53-57, my price 46.51, category B sell 31. Lions hotshots (Volmink, Mnisi, Marx and Mahuza) - SPIN price 34-38, my price 31.98, category C sell No actual bets on this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 17, 2016 Author Share Posted July 17, 2016 The spreadsheet's still a work in progress but here's an update along similar lines to last week. 31 selections, blind buying or selling would have yielded 13 winners and 18 winners respectively and both shown losses (57 points and 35 points). I've double checked that but will check it again. 31 is quite a small sample to already be evidencing that blind buying or selling would both be losers! Of the 21 selections that offered any edge, 12 won and 9 lost for a profit of 43 points. Buys (none this week) are still 2-2 for -2 points and sells are 10-7 for +45 points. By category, the bets have performed as follows: A: 1-1 +15 points B: 5-1 +103 points C: 2-3 -82 points D: 4-4 +7 points The two actual hotshots (none this week) bets both lost for a total loss of 43 points. Encouraging to see the strong performance of category A and B bets. Looks like being willing to sell may be the way forward! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 17, 2016 Author Share Posted July 17, 2016 17 hours ago, harry_rag said: 30. Jaguares hotshots (Monetro, Hernandez, Cordero and J Tuculet) - SPIN price 53-57, my price 46.51, category B sell 31. Lions hotshots (Volmink, Mnisi, Marx and Mahuza) - SPIN price 34-38, my price 31.98, category C sell No actual bets on this game. Oops, should have done this before posting the update! 30. made up at zero so the sell would have won 53 points 31. made up at 75 so the sell would have lost 41 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 32. Brumbies hotshots (Coleman, Kuridrani, Ah Wong and Toua) - Market price 14-17, my price 13.95, category D sell 33. Highlanders hotshots (Osborne, Fekitoa, Naholo and B Smith) - Market price 26-28, my price 27.91, category E no edge No bet on those, no edge to speak of on either and nothing in the stats to suggest a bet either way. A couple of individual bets appeal enough to get involved, buy Ah Wong's try minutes at 9 with SX and back Ben Smith to score a try at 7/2 with the same firm or Lads. Finally, I couldn't resist a buy of the Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 10 with SX, having previously observed how many tries they way in with. Moore carries most of the threat and is a reasonable anytime bet at 5/1 with 365 if you don't spread bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 22 hours ago, harry_rag said: 32. Brumbies hotshots (Coleman, Kuridrani, Ah Wong and Toua) - Market price 14-17, my price 13.95, category D sell 33. Highlanders hotshots (Osborne, Fekitoa, Naholo and B Smith) - Market price 26-28, my price 27.91, category E no edge No bet on those, no edge to speak of on either and nothing in the stats to suggest a bet either way. A couple of individual bets appeal enough to get involved, buy Ah Wong's try minutes at 9 with SX and back Ben Smith to score a try at 7/2 with the same firm or Lads. Finally, I couldn't resist a buy of the Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 10 with SX, having previously observed how many tries they way in with. Moore carries most of the threat and is a reasonable anytime bet at 5/1 with 365 if you don't spread bet. 32. made up at 0, the sell would have won 14 points 33. made up at 25 No joy with my 3 actual bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 34. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, Jane and Marshall) - Market price 36-38, my price 32.27, category B sell 35. Sharks hotshots (Mvovo, Jordaan, Pietersen and Le Roux) - Market price 18-20, my price 19.77, category E no edge No bets on this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 23, 2016 Author Share Posted July 23, 2016 14 hours ago, harry_rag said: 34. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, Jane and Marshall) - Market price 36-38, my price 32.27, category B sell 35. Sharks hotshots (Mvovo, Jordaan, Pietersen and Le Roux) - Market price 18-20, my price 19.77, category E no edge No bets on this game. 34. made up at 50 so the sell would have lost 14 points 35. made up at 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 23, 2016 Author Share Posted July 23, 2016 36. Lions hotshots (Skosan, van Rensburg, Mapoe and Combrinck) - Market price 35-37, my price 35.47, category E no edge 37. Crusaders hotshots (Read, Macilai, McNicholl and Dagg) - SPIN price 31-35, my price 31.98, category E no edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 23, 2016 Author Share Posted July 23, 2016 5 hours ago, harry_rag said: 36. Lions hotshots (Skosan, van Rensburg, Mapoe and Combrinck) - Market price 35-37, my price 35.47, category E no edge 37. Crusaders hotshots (Read, Macilai, McNicholl and Dagg) - SPIN price 31-35, my price 31.98, category E no edge 36. made up at 75 37. made up at 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 23, 2016 Author Share Posted July 23, 2016 38. Stormers hotshots (Zas, De Allende, Jones and Van Wyk) - Market price 21-22, my price 23.55, category C buy 39. Chiefs hotshots (Weber, Lowe, McNicol and McKenzie) - Market price 27-30, my price 28.2, category E no edge Late with this one as it kicks off at 18:00. No bets as yet though going to have a look in the time remaining and will post if that changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 23, 2016 Author Share Posted July 23, 2016 Have gone with the buy of Stormers hotshots at 22 with SPIN. A bit of recency bias as Zas and Jones scored 7 of their 8 tries last time out but, as the saying goes, when you're hot, you're hot! Also thing it's worth a small "doubling up" on Zas at 13/5 anytime with PP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 23, 2016 Author Share Posted July 23, 2016 Finally, have also bought Lowe's try minutes at 14 with SX. Suggests something like 13/5 anytime when the best available price is 13/8. Looking at his stats I'd be pricing him up a lot closer to the latter number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 24, 2016 Author Share Posted July 24, 2016 18 hours ago, harry_rag said: 38. Stormers hotshots (Zas, De Allende, Jones and Van Wyk) - Market price 21-22, my price 23.55, category C buy 39. Chiefs hotshots (Weber, Lowe, McNicol and McKenzie) - Market price 27-30, my price 28.2, category E no edge Late with this one as it kicks off at 18:00. No bets as yet though going to have a look in the time remaining and will post if that changes. 38. made up at 0 so my buy lost 22 points 39. made up at 100 Bought the wrong hotshots there as all 4 Chiefs players scored a try. Lowe's 34th minute try at least reduced the losses on my actual bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 24, 2016 Author Share Posted July 24, 2016 Probably fair to say that this thread, so far, has more value for analysis purposes than as a source of actual bets! Here's the standings after this week's activity. 39 selections, blind buying or selling would have yielded 16 winners and 23 winners respectively and both shown losses (34 points and 77 points). The average spread price has been 36.5 to 39.3 and the average make up has been 38.5. Of the 24 selections that offered any edge, 13 won and 11 lost for a profit of 21 points. Buys are 2-3 for -24 points and sells are 11-8 for +45 points. By category, the bets have performed as follows: A: 1-1 +15 points B: 5-2 +89 points C: 2-4 -104 points D: 5-4 +21 points The three actual hotshots (one this week) all lost for a total loss of 65 points. Still a very small sample but the inferences so far are the firms are pricing this market fairly well given the average make up sits inside the average spread and you'd lose money blindly buying or selling. Obviously my own decision making in terms of actual bets has been poor thus far. There's more encouragement for selling than buying and it will be interesting to see if the positive performance of category A and B bets continues. (Surely there has to be some levelling out of the poor performance of category C relative to all of the others.) The data so far is significantly biased towards Rugby but there will be a lot more football to look at shortly, at which point I'll try and separate the sports for analysis purposes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 40. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, Woodward and Jane) - Market price 25-27, my price 22.97, category C sell 41. Chiefs hotshots (Tamanivalu, Lowe, McNicol and McKenzie) - Market price 23-25, my price 23.55, category E no edge No bets on either of those for me, just a buy of Jane's try minutes at 8 with SX, for an interest. A standout 5/2 anytime in one place, the spread firms have priced him as if he should be more like double that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 30, 2016 Author Share Posted July 30, 2016 14 hours ago, harry_rag said: 40. Hurricanes hotshots (Perenara, Barrett, Woodward and Jane) - Market price 25-27, my price 22.97, category C sell 41. Chiefs hotshots (Tamanivalu, Lowe, McNicol and McKenzie) - Market price 23-25, my price 23.55, category E no edge No bets on either of those for me, just a buy of Jane's try minutes at 8 with SX, for an interest. A standout 5/2 anytime in one place, the spread firms have priced him as if he should be more like double that. 40. made up at 25 so the sell would have broke even 41. made up at zero No try for Jane so my actual bet lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 30, 2016 Author Share Posted July 30, 2016 42. Lions hotshots (Skosan, van Rensburg, Mapoe and Combrinck) - Market price 32-34, my price 33.72, category E no edge 43. Highlanders hotshots (Osborne, Faddes, Naholo & B Smith) - Market price 43-45, my price 50, category B buy Have gone with the buy of Highlanders hotshots at 45 with SPIN. Early pointers from this thread are that the value may lie more with selling but it's not often I see a perceived edge of 5 points so I'll stick to my old ways and buy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 30, 2016 Author Share Posted July 30, 2016 6 hours ago, harry_rag said: 42. Lions hotshots (Skosan, van Rensburg, Mapoe and Combrinck) - Market price 32-34, my price 33.72, category E no edge 43. Highlanders hotshots (Osborne, Faddes, Naholo & B Smith) - Market price 43-45, my price 50, category B buy Have gone with the buy of Highlanders hotshots at 45 with SPIN. Early pointers from this thread are that the value may lie more with selling but it's not often I see a perceived edge of 5 points so I'll stick to my old ways and buy! 42. made up at 50 43. made up at 50 so the buy made a profit of 5 points. Hardly spectacular but the first winner from the 4th actual hotshots bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 31, 2016 Author Share Posted July 31, 2016 Only 4 selections this week, as the Super Rugby season reaches it's conclusion and before the domestic football season really gets going. 43 selections, blind buying or selling would have yielded 18 winners and 24 winners respectively and both shown losses (40 points and 79 points). The average spread price has been 36 to 38.7 and the average make up has been 37.8. Of the 26 selections that offered any edge, 14 won and 11 lost for a profit of 26 points (1 broke even). Buys are 3-3 for -19 points and sells are 11-8 (1) for +45 points. By category, the bets have performed as follows: A: 1-1 +15 points B: 6-2 +94 points C: 2-4 (1) -104 points D: 5-4 +21 points The four actual hotshots bets (one this week) are 1-3 for a total loss of 60 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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