La Liga > March 2016

[Aidymac]

Odds with Bet365

[Aidymac]

[saimon76]

Sevilla should come out all gun blazing, eibar in a Dip of form .home should cruise to a safe win tonight, and i expect also they cover the handicap

Edited March 2, 2016 by saimon76

[hugothefourth]

Yes, Sevilla.....should win. They also have a strong record at home-third best. Why should they come out all guns blazing though? Is there some other motivational factor that you know of?

[saimon76]

Hi Hugothefourth, probably resding a lot of staff in english, is bringing me to use this kinds of terms , sometimes not so appopriate.jowever i mean, sevilla sjould start strong and try to freeze the match in order to save legs for the upcoming matches, instead they were also lucky because eibar at the end has some clear chances, but they wasted in feont of the gk

[saimon76]

Granada, is a team i feel sympathy for... don t ask me why. Tonight a very decisive match and generally theh have a good support at home, they have recently apointed a new manager. I am tempted for their victory tonight, odds are going sligthly there also (but this not meaning a lot very often).gijon will have 2 quite jmportant missings in isma lopez and nacho cases , and i expect that granada will attack on the flanks with ruben rochina , success and the other.gijion tend to park the bus generally making also a lot of possession.the new manager of granada seems more interested in defense , they obtained an important win at La Coruna, while guest lost a very important match at home and for sure their morale must be lower of their actual rival.

Granada begins today a little sub championship, having matches upcoming with Betis aw, Espanyol and Rayo at home.so this is first a must no lose, but from mh point of view quite a must win.gijion did not had an hell of a schedule recently but fail to win any of the crucial match.The risk of anything, given that gijion also possess pace with sanabria and halilovic, and perhaps a draw is very possibile , but i want to give Granada more chanches and back them with 4 u @ 2,10 .

[saimon76]

Granada - Gijón 2-0. bet won.

an even match but on the distance Home team has more quality, guest hit also the bar in 1st half but also Granada has their chances

[owenclass]

Can Atletico Madrid still win La Liga

[sandrasuzuki]

Eibar vs. Barcelona

Eibar will be putting up a great challenge against Barcelona in its attempt to end its losing streak. Yet, obviously, it will be the Catalan giant that will be monopolizing all the points in this encounter. 

Barcelona’s story is the exact opposite of Eibar. Since they defeated Atletico Madrid and was able to return to the top of the league table, the squad was simply unstoppable. To note, they have won all of their last six matches.

Eibar Team Form: LLLLLL
Barcelona Team Form: WWWWWW

Tips:
Correct score 0-2 at 9
Total goal 2-3 at 1.88

[sandrasuzuki]

Getafe vs. Sevilla
 

Sevilla will definitely secure the upper hand in this match considering the differences present in both squads. The visitor’s away performance isn’t that much of an eye candy , but their overall performance clearly supersedes that of Getafe. 

Sevilla did an impressive job of recovering from their  Barcelona loss via dominating the match against another aggressive squad, Eibar. Fernando Llorente snatched the winning goal on the 11^th minute and by the time that the final whistle was blown, Eibar could only look into frustration as they were not able to respond.

Getafe Team Form: LLLLLL
Sevilla Team Form: WDWDLW

Tips:
Correct score 0-2 at 9
Total goal 2-3 at 1.88

[sandrasuzuki]

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo

Real Madrid is back to its winning ways when they thrashed the struggling Levante. Facing Celta Vigo may not really threaten them since the latter has a poor away where they lost four of them. In as far as Real Madrid is concerned, this is also their chance to avenge their defeat at home when Atletico Madrid destroyed them. 

Real Madrid bounced back to the league’s winning list after thrashing the rock bottom Levante with a 1-3 win. Leading the club was Cristiano Ronaldo who scored a penalty on the 34^th minute.

Real Madrid Team Form: WWWDLW
Celta Vigo Team Form: LDLWWD

Tips: 
Correct score at 3-1 at 9.5
Total goal 4-6 at 2.11

[pulsar12]

Real Madrid - Celta: RM faces internal issues and conflicts between players. Zidane seem to not have the skills to control the dressroom, and statistically he has the poor starting results comparing with the last previous coaches. Celta is at full strength on the attack, however they miss the leader defender Cabral. a important back on RM is Bale and Sergio Ramos, Modric and Kroos stay out. I think overs and AH Celta+0,5 is good bet here. celta+0,5 > 3,55 + o4,5 > 2,88

Espanyol - Rayo: Rayo is highly volatile team and sensitive to changes, they can being performing well and suddenly perform horribly. Currently they have many missings and coach is forced to seek alternatives to the squad. Espanyol got a gastroentitis sickness on their players tuesday and it contributed to their 3 nil loss agains betis. But by today they should be recovered and as per old saying "after a storm comes a calm". Expect Rayo to play be very bad because of the changes on the squad. Bet AH -1,5 Espanyol > 3,35

[Rainbow-Bet]

Valencia - Atletico Madrid (06.03.2016)

Bet of the Day is picked from Spain and la Liga, and the fantastic Estadio Mestalla. The home team Valencia welcomes second placed Atletico Madrid. This is Gary Neville vs Diego Simeone. Valencia has performed better the last couple of weeks, after a horrible start of the league season, while Atletico is continuing winning and doesn't concede goals.

 

Gary Neville's Valencia is on a disappointing 9^th place in the league, the home stats shows poor 4-7-2 at Mestalla. After a 8-1 exit (over two legs) against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, it's now the league in focus for Valencia. Are through to the next round in Europa League after a 10-0 (two matches) win over Rapid Wien, but this tournament isn't the priority for Neville's men. In the last league matches they won against Granada 1-2, lost against Athletic Bilbao 0-3 and took a quite strong 1-2 win against Malaga.

 

Many will describe the last couple of weeks as a turning point for Valencia, and the results will keep getting better, but the opponents in the last weeks hasn't been the strongest, a big test is ahead of Neville for tonight as they face the «Rojiblancos» from Madrid. Valencia meets an opponent that is difficult to play against, and a massive task to try to break down/create chances against. Zakaria Bakkali (midfield) is injured for the hosts, while Jose Gaya (defender) is suspended.

 

Expected lineup Valencia:

 

Alves

Barragan – Mustafi – Santos – Cancelo

Gomes – Fuego

Feghouli – Parejo – Cheryshev

Paco

 

Diego Simeone keeps on cultivating Atletico's style of play. The team seems comfortable in any match scenarios, their passing rate is good and their defense are quite amazing. The red and white from Madrid sits on a 2^nd place in the league, and the away stats shows great 10-1-3. Have only conceded 5 goals in their 14 away matches, that's impressing and gives an average of 0,35 goals conceded each away match.

 

The back four with Juanfran, Gimenez, Godin and Filippe Luis have been rock solid this season, Diego Simeone's first priority is to create a strong and safe defensive line...His job is done. Especially 30 years old Diego Godin has been the most impressing at the back, and must be concidering as on of the best centre backs in Europe this season.

 

The away side was knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Celta Vigo, and since then they've lost 2-1 against Barcelona. Thereafter wins against Eibar and Getafe, 0-0 home against Villarreal and a very strong 0-1 win against rivals Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu. In their last match the easily won 3-0 at home against Real Sociedad. Tiago (midfield) and Stefan Savic (defender) are out injured for the guests, while Augusto Fernandez (midfield) is suspended.

 

Expected lineup Atletico Madrid:

 

Oblak

Juanfran – Gimenez – Godin – Filipe Luis

Koke – Gabi – Ferreira-Carrasco – Niguez

Vietto – Griezmann

 

We're surprised over the odds value for a Atletico win, at the moment at 2.00 (1/1), and an away win is without doubt our Bet of the Day. Regardless of how Gary Neville and his Valencia will approach this game, they will face challenges. No one dare to press too high up field against Atletico because of the spaces left behind in the back, at the same time Valencia will have problems breaking through a tight and disciplined back four of Atletico.

 

 

Valencia – Atletico Madrid 2

2.00   >Unibet

2.00   >Bet365

1.95   bwin

2.02   Pinnacle

2.00   >BetVictor

1.95   Betsafe

1.96   bet-at-home

[Aidymac]

Odds with Bet365

[sandrasuzuki]

Atletico Madrid vs. Deportivo La Coruna 

Atletico has no reasons to surrender its title bid yet. They team has an impressive form that could easily dominate and snatch away the points from Deportivo La Coruna, not unless the latter clinches a stunning win or draw.

 

Atletico Madrid Team Form: WWDWWW
Deportivo La Coruna Team Form: DDLLLD

2-2

 

Edited March 11, 2016 by sandrasuzuki

[sandrasuzuki]

Barcelona vs. Getafe
 

Relegation prone Getafe must exert extra effort in winning or at the very least, snatching a point against Barcelona. The host has been averaging a total of two goals in its recent matches and is yet to taste a defeat—something that is unlikely to happen as of the moment.

 

Barcelona Team Form: WWWWWW
Fetafe Team Form: LLLLLD

2-0

Edited March 11, 2016 by sandrasuzuki

[sandrasuzuki]

Sevilla vs. Villarreal

Sevilla and Villarreal meet  once again to outshine each other in an attempt to prove that they are the better squad. Sevilla, of course has the home court advantage, not to mention the fact that they have dominated many of their matches against Villarreal in the past.

Sevilla Team Form: DWDLWD
Villarreal Team Form: DWDWDL

2-1
 

[CristRo7]

Sevilla- Villarreal

Central match of 29th game week of Spanish Primera Division will be Sevilla- Villarreal match. Sevilla’s players will try to beat their opponents at home and to approach to 4th league place. Bookies consider that the hosts will be obvious favorites on corners. But will be this true? Let’s find out.

First of all, look at Sevilla’s corners stats. The team plays not bad – they won 8 of 14 matches on corners. The team has one of the best corners difference indicator, even ahead of Barcelona. Sevilla goes second on home taken corners after Real Madrid (should be admitted that Real Madrid supervised one more match). Sevilla takes on average 7.29 corners and let opponents take 4.71 corners a game.

Villarreal looks awfully on away taken corners: there were 1 win and 10 defeats. The team is in the third place from the end of the table on corners which they allow to take opponents – the hosts of the field. Worse than Villarreal are only Valencia and Malaga. Should admit that in last 4 of 6 away games Villarreal’s encounters took 9 or more corners and Villarreal’s team could only once take more than 3 corners. Average results on corners are slightly better at away: Villarreal took on average 4 corners, on the other hand, their encounters took 7.31 corners per game.

Let’s look at handicap on corners. Handicap -3 on Sevilla estimates 1.8 odds at Bet365.

Villarreal has the worst indicator among all Primera teams on corners difference at away. Their opponents take on average 3.31 corners more than Villarreal. Valencia and Eibar are similar to Villarreal on this indicator. If you look at how Sevilla played with these opponents than you will see that this handicap was confidently covered (lately in Sevilla-Eibar match Sevilla took on 6 more corners and in Valencia match the benefit was enormous 17-0)

So, in my opinion, bet on minus handicap is quite reasonable.

More stats of corners, cards, referees, goals and others - http://corner-stats.com

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, CristRo7 said:

Sevilla- Villarreal

Let’s look at handicap on corners. Handicap -3 on Sevilla estimates 1.8 odds at Bet 365

I won't regurgitate everything I've posted in the Systems and Strategy thread but the above post has lead me to buy Sevilla corners squared at 56 with Spreadex (68 to buy with SPIN). Big difference of opinion between the firms and the more obvious pick if you want to follow on the supremacy tip is to simply buy Sevilla corner supremacy at 2.75 with Spreadex (4 to buy with SPIN).

[Sir Puntalot]

[Sir Puntalot]

[clubgowi]

La Liga: Real Madrid - Sevilla

Sevilla were easy 3-0 winners in Europa League and could largely switch off after the break, but the game still had to be played/won and a trip to Real is never easy, let alone when you have played just three days previously, the hosts are well rested and you are injury hit ! The visitors arrive in the capital missing a whole host of midfield talent with Banega, Khrohn-Dehli, Carrico, N'Zoni, Vitolo and Konoplyanka all absent, four of those started in the 3-2 win for Sevilla in the reverse fixture, which Real will be looking to avenge and another came off the bench, so we are talking about effectively half a team.

Real have the Champions League as their priority and will be delighted to have drawn Wolfsburg in the quarters, but they can afford to concentrate fully on La Liga for now and Atletico's defeat last night means that Real could move to within a point of them in second and that is incentive enough, but would also set up nicely their next game, which is the El Clasico game with champions elect Barcelona on April 2nd. "Big 3" games aside real are 27-3-3 at home averaging almost four goals per start and under Zinedine Yazid Zidane, their record in those fixtures is 5/5 with a 27-4 goal difference. Sevilla have yet to win on the road domestically and they have lost on their last seven visits to the Bernabeu , conceding 24 goals.

Cristiano Ronaldo has his best scoring record against Sevilla with 21 in 14 starts and he will be "hungry" after coming up short in the reverse fixture, he leads the way currently in the La Liga goalscoring market, one ahead of Luis Suarez and five clear of Lionel Messi and he will definitely want to record a third straight "golden boot", no one has recorded a hat trick of those since Hugo Sanchez in 1988 and that is a real target as big rival Messi is now unlikely to ever claim it . He is 2.75 + to score twice, 6.5 -9.0 to score a hat-trick, he has done that (score 3) five times previously against Sevilla. For some reason, Betfair Sportsbook offer a standout 3.50 and 13.0 respectively and that offers really good value and you could try something small if that appeals..... even 3.0 and 9.0 seem overpriced

Karim Benzema returns and it is easy to see plenty of goals in this (maybe a lot !) for a very strong looking home side , against a team short of midfield options who are coming off a Thursday game.

Real Madrid -1.75 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket