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National League > Jan 26th - 30th


Aidymac

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Obviously the great value we had last week isn't there this week, but I think there is just enough in the price to get involved in Oxford City tonight. Same reasons remain and as I said last week I wouldn't make them any bigger than 7/4 and arguably they could be favs.

Done a short price double on East Thurrock and Weymouth who are both playing badly out of form teams and it pays 1.3/1 with Bet 365.

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30/01/2016 Aldershot 38.00 44.50 - 5.50 11.50 Kidderminster +26.50
30/01/2016 Altrincham FC 36.75 39.00 - 56.00 38.00 Dover Athletic -1.25
30/01/2016 Braintree Town 24.00 23.50 - 22.00 19.75 Chester FC +4.25
30/01/2016 Cheltenham 34.25 32.50 - 45.50 28.50 Bromley +5.75
30/01/2016 Eastleigh 35.00 46.50 - 25.00 29.50 Wrexham +5.50
30/01/2016 Forest Green 42.25 36.00 - 30.00 27.75 Macclesfield +14.50
30/01/2016 Gateshead 26.50 33.50 - 54.00 52.00 Grimsby -25.50
30/01/2016 Halifax 30.75 38.00 - 21.00 21.50 Welling United +9.25
30/01/2016 Lincoln 32.00 32.00 - 18.50 14.25 Guiseley +17.75
30/01/2016 Southport 34.00 26.00 - 19.00 31.25 Boreham Wood +2.75
30/01/2016 Tranmere 39.25 38.50 - 12.00 15.00 Torquay +24.25
30/01/2016 Woking 32.00 31.50 - 51.00 42.50 Barrow -10.50
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Aldershot v Kidderminster
There are five bets this week, all at home and I fancy them all quite strongly. Aldershot haven't always performed that well at home this season, but as I wrote last week they have been showing real signs of improvement and they continued that when beating Macclesfield 2-0 last weekend. Their manager had moaned about their consistency, but they are finally showing some and are now scoring goals which was something they were struggling with. Kidderminster will be playing National League North football next season as they are 14 points from safety and they have little chance of staying up. They lost again last week and with Aldershot showing their improved for I am happy to take 5/6 (Marathon) about a home win.
 
Braintree v Chester
Braintree have struggled to get their home games on in recent weeks, but hopefully this will go ahead as their games against Wrexham did on Tuesday. Amazingly they have only scored eight goals at home and conceded the same number as well, so the chances of this being a goal fest are pretty slim. Braintree have won three of their last four home games and they have all been a goal to nil. Chester have only won once in their last six and they are in danger of being sucked into a relegation battle if they are not careful. I am surprised Braintree aren't odds on to win this and Chester have lost four of their last five away games. With their games in hand Braintree have every right to be thinking of the play-offs and they I reckon they will pick up another three points here. Betway go 23/20 about a home win and probably worth a small bet on a 1-0 victory at 6/1.
 
Eastleigh v Wrexham
Must admit that only getting a point at Boreham Wood last week probably means Eastleigh won't be winning the title this season. I have seen people mention that the top three are a class above everyone else in the league, but that is utter rubbish as Eastleigh are right up there with them. They have only lost twice in the league since Chris Todd took over and take out the dip in form that caused Richard Hill to resign and they would be right behind Forest Green and Cheltenham. Wrexham are in a terrible run of form at the moment and although they briefly stopped the rot by beating Lincoln (in shocking form themselves) 3-1 last week, as mentioned above they lost again on Tuesday. I think Eastleigh will prove too strong for the Welsh side and at just over 11/8 with Marathon they look a good bet.
 
Woking v Barrow
It was a big surprise to see Woking lose on Tuesday against Altrincham and hopefully it doesn't mean they are about to go on a poor run of form again. They have had a bizarre season as they started strongly, went through such a big slump that a relegation battle looked possible and now they are amazingly in the play-off picture after hitting form again. Barrow aren't in great form themselves and although they won at Welling last week they have lost ten of their away games this season and that was only their 3rd win. Barrow did win the reverse fixture in November, but that was before Woking's form turned around and I do think at a shade of odds against (Marathon) is a fair bet.
 
Margate v Bishop Stortford
Margate are flying up the table and the change of manager has really turned their season around. Their superb run of form continued against top of the table Ebbsfleet last weekend and they might just be capable of getting themselves into the play-offs now the team are performing as well as they should be. Bishop Stortford are in fair form themselves, but apart from Gosport who they beat on Saturday their recent matches have come against teams towards the bottom of the table and I really fancy Margate to win again. Bet365 are biggest at 13/10.
 

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Oxford sold their best player Luke Coulson yesterday and skipper Darren Pond is out injured. Whitehawk might be in poor form but they do have a strong squad and shouldnt be as high as they are. I take Whitehawk +0.5 @ 1.92 and Whitehawk win @ 3.80. 

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1 hour ago, sap said:

hi all,

For this weekend,i fancy eastleigh same as addpea.Other teams in my list are poole,dartford and fylde.One upset can be gateshead who are doing so well.

addpea,what's your nap?

Don't be fooled by Gatesheads form as they aren't doing as well as it looks and played no one as good as Grimsby of late. They have also really struggled against the top sides this season. 

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Yes I know Whitehawk were dreadful last weekend but they did score three own goals and both Sessegnon and Lorraine had absolute nightmares. Im sure that wont happen again and they will put in a better performance this time around. I think they are great value to atleast get a draw against a slightly depleted Oxford team.

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Forest Green to beat Macclesfield is my best bet for this weekend. They are in a good run with 5 winnings in streak and they are the best home team so far in the league. Its a tight battle between them and Cheltenham and Grimsby, if they lose point here, Cheltenham could lead by 4-5 point, because Cheltenham have a extra match in their hand. 

Macclesfield is a very strang team and are difficult to be wise on, they have only 2 draws in 31 matches. But all in all I think Forest Green has a better squad and they should win this one. 

Odds 1.93 Marathanbet  , 3/10 units betvalue 108%

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5 hours ago, dawwe92 said:

Yes I know Whitehawk were dreadful last weekend but they did score three own goals and both Sessegnon and Lorraine had absolute nightmares. Im sure that wont happen again and they will put in a better performance this time around. I think they are great value to atleast get a draw against a slightly depleted Oxford team.

I wouldn't read too much into the fact they scored 3 goals game was more than over when they scored the last 2 and at least one was due to a defensive cock up. Maybe they were a bit cold as they haven't played much football, but Oxford will be a very tough nut to crack especially away from home as the two game against Cheltenham proved.

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Im also on Weston Super Mare @ 5.00 away to Hemel Hempstead. Hemel have injury problems and have brought two 16 year old academy players into their squad. Weston are in great form and I think they are good value today.

Edited by dawwe92
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2 hours ago, dawwe92 said:

Im also on Weston Super Mare @ 5.00 away to Hemel Hempstead. Hemel have injury problems and have brought two 16 year old academy players into their squad. Weston are in great form and I think they are good value today.

Hi dawwe92

 

How many players from Hemel

can't play against Weston ?

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20 hours ago, sap said:
51 minutes ago, dawwe92 said:

Whitehawk are now favourites.

Hmm bit suspicious of this as that is a big move for a game at that level for no real reason. Struggle to believe that it is just down to the fact Oxford sold a player in the week. Also only one of Chelmsfords goals was an own goal so not sure where you saw three of them were. 

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Well not officially they weren't so you can't count them as own goals. I see most of the money seems to have come this morning from around 9am onwards which again makes me suspicious as these moves usually happen earlier in the week, I get the feeling people most know something, but we shall see. 

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That Hemel/Weston game sounded like a cracker after Hemel went 3 up as well. I am always a little wary of reading too much into team news as it is amazing how many teams seem to get results when they appear to be down to the bare bones. Certainly needs to be considered but I would want other reasons to be back a team.

2 of my 5 won and frustratingly the other 3 all drew including Margate who missed a penalty very late on.

Well done to Sap with Gateshead which is the first game Grimsby have lost for a while.

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Wasn't there an 'alleged' scam some years back with floodlight failure, the match result standing if half-time reached?
I could've sworn it was a premier league game too... Wimbledon? Charlton?
I think the rules changed after that 'alleged' incident though.
So obviously the bookies had someone nobble the lights today :D

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Not sure although surprised the rules were ever to let the result stand if the match isn't completed. I know that if a bet is a certain winner/loser at the time then it gets settled eg over 2.5 goals would have been a winner on this game.

Seems it was rain which got into the floodlight box which caused it.

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Cheers addpea. It seems some asian markets would settle up on a HT result I think. Premier League games were hit twice by the looks of it...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/the-floodlights-went-out-ndash-and-an-asian-betting-syndicate-raked-in-a-fortune-2066133.html

It just popped into my head as you seemed a bit suss on the weight of the move on that game.

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