Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2016 ~ Ante Post

[Aidymac]

As we can see, there are a lot of names that finished behind Moon Racer last year and in my opinion, David Pipe has found a horse that will upset the Irish party on the opening day of Cheltenham 2016. The 6 year old gelding won a bumper for Michael Ronayne at Fairyhouse on debut at a very unfancied 50/1 in April 2014. This was a shock win, but the horse won by 8 lengths untouched and the small trainer was getting phone calls galore for the horse as soon as the race was over.

Moon Racer was then bought by Professor Caroline Tisdall and Bryan Drew and off the horse went to the David Pipe stable. In October of 2014, he made his debut for Pipe at Cheltenham, going off an 11/4 chance. The horse absolutely bolted up, scooting clear to win by 12 lengths. He wasn't seen again until March in the Champion Bumper which is always a ferociously competitive race. He was a long way back half a mile from home but cut his way through the field like a knife through butter to win on the snap.

This is a serious race horse, make no mistake about it. Not only has he top class form and a serious pedigree already, he has already shown a massive liking for Cheltenham which is a unique course and not a track that many love. This horse could go off 2/1 or 3/1 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle so my advice is to take the available 8/1 now whilst you can each-way. It is always a risk backing ante post as the horse may get injured, but if he gets there in one piece, he will win!

 

Back Moon Racer for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle ~ 8/1 with Bet365

[Smarty72]

One of the 2 big Bumper Winners of last year with the other been Belshill winner of the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown. Both are on my own personal list of horses to follow for this winter.

Brave move this far out Aidy but Anti-Post bets on Cheltenham are great fun!

One trend against Moon Racer is the record of 7yo.

At this stage at current prices I prefer Belshill from the Mullins stable and available at 16\1 with a number of bookies.

No bet at this stage but looking forward to both making there hurdles debut!

 

[Aidymac]

One of the 2 big Bumper Winners of last year with the other been Belshill winner of the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown. Both are on my own personal list of horses to follow for this winter.

Brave move this far out Aidy but Anti-Post bets on Cheltenham are great fun!

One trend against Moon Racer is the record of 7yo.

At this stage at current prices I prefer Belshill from the Mullins stable and available at 16\1 with a number of bookies.

No bet at this stage but looking forward to both making there hurdles debut!

 

Age doesn't bother me with regard Moon Racer. Has only seen a racecourse three times, extremely lightly raced. When Captain Cee Bee won at the age of 7, he had nine runs under his belt before he went to Cheltenham. Like A Butterfly won at the age of 8 back in 2002. The reason there is a bad record for 7 year olds is because not many 7 year olds run in a Supreme Novices, only one 7 year old ran last year, one the year before and two the year before that.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Is it Cheltenham Yet ?

If not then how many more sleeps ?

[Jimmy2shoes]

I haven't looked into this but was just wondering................When was the last time horse won the Champion Bumper, then came back and won the Supreme ?

[Aidymac]

I haven't looked into this but was just wondering................When was the last time horse won the Champion Bumper, then came back and won the Supreme ?

Champagne Fever Jim.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Champagne Fever Jim.

Ahhh so it was.

Pipe yard frustrates me big time Aidy, one thing to remember with them, they always like a price and play a very shred game of near misses till they get it, we both know Martin's brain is still behind the operation, David is just the front face, and Martin has a very wise head. 

[Aidymac]

Ahhh so it was.

Pipe yard frustrates me big time Aidy, one thing to remember with them, they always like a price and play a very shred game of near misses till they get it, we both know Martin's brain is still behind the operation, David is just the front face, and Martin has a very wise head. 

I know that Jim. I just remember watching Moon Racer run first time out for a tiny little yard in Ireland, went off 50/1 and I have never seen a horse look so impressive first time out.. Was snapped up for a fortune after that, and is yet to disappoint since.. The only worry for me is whether they actually target the Supreme, Pipe is odd! If he shows up, I feel the only thing that could stop him is a Willie Mullins French recruit, possibly Min who seems to be well regarded.

[Smarty72]

Hopefully Moon Racer will be out soon, anyone seen any news? Now available at 16\1!

Belshill won today but maybe going for the longer Neptune for which he is favourite.

Min looks to be the top Mullins horse for this after a very good maiden hurdle win on Thursday.

[arsenalfh]

51 minutes ago, Smarty72 said:

Hopefully Moon Racer will be out soon, anyone seen any news? Now available at 16\1!

Belshill won today but maybe going for the longer Neptune for which he is favourite.

Min looks to be the top Mullins horse for this after a very good maiden hurdle win on Thursday.

He had a setback and the yard are "hoping to get him back later in the season for some of the big spring festivals".

[bartrum]

did you see Gwafa win at fakenham yesterday it was very impressive. looking back at the form Gwafa was smashed by Altior on boxing day. I think min is a fav worth taking on but id imagine bookies will be doing " If min wins get your money back type offers" and at 6/1 I think altior could be the bet especially on decent ground.

[Blazing Bailey]

Thought I would put this in to at least give the thread a bit of a bump.

 

Supreme Novice Hurdle

 

Min 11/8

Altior 6/1

Buveur D'Air 7/1

Yorkhill 8/1

Tombstone 12/1

Bellshill 16/1

Moon Racer 20/1

Supasundae 20/1

Coney Island 20/1

Modus 25/1

Long Dog 25/1

Silver Concorde 25/1

Winter Escape 25/1

North Hill Harvey 25/1

A Toi Phil 25/1

 

Out of this market I am going to rule out North Hill Harvey and A Toi Phil as their trainers have suggested the Neptune the most likely target, I am ruling out Winter Escape, Silver Concorde, Modus, Coney Island and Supasundae as they havent shown enough hurdling as of yet and I am also ruling out Moon Racer given his troubles.

 

Starting at the front Min looks a bit decent! I rate him better than Douvan at this stage and given the Irish horses tend to improve on ratings when they head to Cheltenham it will take a good one to beat him. I like the way he jumps as well and the ground wont make a difference to him. I suspect he will run to around 160 on the day.

 

Altior is very battled hardened and whilst he has raced to 154 on my figures I do not expect him to improve for a return to Cheltenham. I would be a little cautious with him as well as he has only beaten a couple of modest hurdlers by small amounts. The Kempton run is the intriguing one and I don’t know where it came from. As a general rule I dont really fancy horses that show an increased level of form at Kempton, especially when you are reviewing a race at Cheltenham.

 

Buveur D'Air was a horse that really caught my eye at Newbury when winning his first hurdles start with ease, powering away in the straight. I had an eye on him before that race based on his second at the same track behind Barters Hill in a bumper for obvious reasons. I would have liked him to step up on that form when running at Huntingdon and in fairness it would have been hard for him to show too much but he is due to run again shortly and I think that will show us more. If he runs anywhere near 150 it puts him firmly into the picture and I suspect a strongly run race will suit him down to the ground.

 

Given what has happened in Ireland today I find it very hard to know what Mullins is going to do with Bellshill or Yorkhill. I suspect the latter will go to the Supreme but either way I dont see them being good enough at the festival. Bellshill was the better option leading into todays race however I cant see him going anywhere near the Surpreme.

 

The other two of note are Longdog and Tombstone. I am not really a fan of Longdog as whilst he has performed credibly on the figures, he visually hasnt been as impressive and the fact that Tombstone couldn’t beat him (albeit he was a little unlucky), it doesn’t strike me as Supreme quality form. Plenty of good judges have mentioned him as well now and I think that any price appeal he did have has well and truly gone. He probably should have won today as well and given I didnt even factor the winner into my assessment (and again its all linked to the Longdog form), I dont think they will be good enough.

 

Regardless of ground (assuming it isn’t bottomless)

 

1. Min

2. Buveur D'Air

 

With BD due to be coming out shortly it may be worth investing a few pennies in the AP market now as if he wins well he will surely shorten. However as a caveat, Hendersons string dont exactly appear to be firing on all cylinders so that is also worth keeping an eye on before he does race as if he flops he will go out to a massive price.