Ante Post bets - updated for Jumps 07/08

[bowles10]

I really want to tackle the ante post market this year & these are my initial bets for those big races coming up: Paddy power Gold Cup at Cheltenham Nov 12th: Fondmort 20/1 Paddy power Our Vic 8/1 Paddy power both love this course & that is the major factor at Cheltenham. Cheltenham Festival Supreme Nov Hrdle Roll Along 25/1 Ladbrokes - made impressive start to its hurdles career at the course last week. Press Gang 25/1 Ladbrokes - placed in last years bumper when 2nd to Hairy Molly, always worth following those placed in that race. Arkle Afsoun 25/1 Bluesq - Henderson likes this animal & again has ran well at the track. Will be an exciting chaser this year. Champion Hurdle Detroit City 8/1 Ladbrokes - won the triumph last year & recently the cesarewitch, will be hard to beat all season as very gutsy R & SA Hurdle Wichita Lineman 14/1 Coral won 1st start over hurdles very well for Jonjo & looks an exciting propsoect for AP to ride Pepperoni Pete 25/1 Stan James likewise won its 1st race over hurdles last week & will be worth following. Gold Cup State of Play 50/1 EW Paddy Power - back this one when the Hennessy betting at newbury is out, if it wins/placed in that will be shorter odds for the gold cup. I will stick this thread so we can see what returns we have come March 07. [B][/B] [B][/B]

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post bets Champion Hurdle - Asian Maze (10-1), Noland (25-1) Champion Chase - Voy Por Ustedes (6-1) World Hurdle - Asian Maze and My Way De Solzen (both 8-1) Gold Cup - Star De Mohaison (20-1), Kicking King (8-1) I haven't placed these yet but will be doing in the next week. I need to shop around for best prices available. I'll update when i've actually put them on.

[alexmac]

Re: Ante Post bets King George - Kauto Star 12/1 and Monet's Garden 5/1 Both advised from fellow PL'ers... :ok :ok :ok more to follow in the next few weeks...

[RussP]

Re: Ante Post bets Paddy Power GC (11th Nov) Have to agree with Bowles on Our Vic. This race usually falls to a leading contender with proven track form. 2 bets for me, both with Ladbrokes:- Our Vic (5pts EW @ 10/1) Taranis (10pts Win @ 6/1) EDIT:- looks like Our Vic won't make the race so I'll replace with: Copsale Lad (5pts EW @ 12/1)

[RussP]

Re: Ante Post bets Breeders Cup Always like to look for US horses with decent placed form in top company, at double figure odds, for EW purposes. My 3 at this stage are:- Mile (8.15) - Silent Name (33/1 Betfred) Ran in 3 Grade 1's and has had excuses all 3 times. 2l 7th when missed break and came very wide, 4l 3rd when lost whip early on and 2l 3rd when failed to settle (pulled too hard). Before that won a G2 handicap comfortably. Well drawn in stall 2. Turf (9.35) - Go Deputy (14/1 Betfred) Not the major US fancy in this race but, IMO, the best over 1m4f. 2 wins & 6 places in 8 starts (1 win & 3 2nd's in G1's). Cacique and English Channel are bigger fancies but with the No 1 draw and better form over this distance, should reach the frame Classic (10.20) - Premium Tap (33/1 Totesport) In reality, Bernardini (the US wonder horse) should win easily. However, at the likely odds, I'll oppose EW with Premium Tap, drawn next to Bernardini in box 2. Won a G1 2 starts ago and was travelling well lto when stumbling 3f out. Still finished only 1l behind that day.

[dontbegreat]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=RussP;615651]Breeders Cup Always like to look for US horses with decent placed form in top company, at double figure odds, for EW purposes. My 3 at this stage are:- Mile (8.15) - Silent Name (33/1 Betfred) Ran in 3 Grade 1's and has had excuses all 3 times. 2l 7th when missed break and came very wide, 4l 3rd when lost whip early on and 2l 3rd when failed to settle (pulled too hard). Before that won a G2 handicap comfortably. Well drawn in stall 2. Turf (9.35) - Go Deputy (14/1 Betfred) Not the major US fancy in this race but, IMO, the best over 1m4f. 2 wins & 6 places in 8 starts (1 win & 3 2nd's in G1's). Cacique and English Channel are bigger fancies but with the No 1 draw and better form over this distance, should reach the frame Classic (10.20) - Premium Tap (33/1 Totesport) In reality, Bernardini (the US wonder horse) should win easily. However, at the likely odds, I'll oppose EW with Premium Tap, drawn next to Bernardini in box 2. Won a G1 2 starts ago and was travelling well lto when stumbling 3f out. Still finished only 1l behind that day.[/quote] Good luck RussP :ok Kellys Landing - 20/1 ew - in the Sprint Cup (Race 4).

[dontbegreat]

Re: Ante Post bets Kellys Landing - http://www.ntra.com/stats_bios.aspx?id=20978 Strengths: Owns the fastest 6-furlong time (1:07-2/5) in Churchill Downs history. Proved his class with a strong runner-up to defending champion sprinter Lost In The Fog this summer. :ok

[RussP]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=dontbegreat;615695]Kellys Landing - http://www.ntra.com/stats_bios.aspx?id=20978 Strengths: Owns the fastest 6-furlong time (1:07-2/5) in Churchill Downs history. Proved his class with a strong runner-up to defending champion sprinter Lost In The Fog this summer. :ok[/quote] And good luck to you also, mate:ok The only thing that puts me off is the draw, widest of all in 14 of 14. May be difficult to overcome in 6f race but hope it comes good for you, mate:hope

[RussP]

Re: Ante Post bets Early Cheltenham fancies: Champion Hurdle - Desert Quest (12/1 Betfred) Progressive handicapper. Won at 2006 Festival. Easily winner under top weight at Ascot last week RSA Hurdle - Aran Concerto (20/1 Coral) Noel Meade says this could be the best horse he has trained after just 1 NHF win World Hurdle - Fire Dragon (33/1 Ladbrokes) 4th in this in 2006 when youngest horse in field. Extra years experience could count for something Gold Cup - Kicking King (8/1 Bet365) High class winner of this in 2005. If no ill effects from injury, should make bold bit to reclaim its crown All EW.

[Carl]

Re: Ante Post bets Champion Hurdle- Detroit City RSA Hurdle -Witchita lineman/Leading Run. World Hurdle- Agree with Russ,A horse I have followed for some time now-FIRE DRAGON Gold Cup- Monet's Garden massive price @ 14's bet365

[socky1]

Re: Ante Post bets Cheltenham Festival RSA Hurdle Aran Concerto 25/1 (ladbrokes and Bet365) Russp has allready mentioned this and i'm having my first major anti post plunge on it. It runs at Navan on Sunday in a grade 2 Novice hurdle which if it wins will probally be Favourite for this race at around 5/1. Here is what Noel Meade said about this horse after he hacked up on his Bumper debut at Naas Three weeks ago:- "I probably shouldn't say it, but this horse just could be the best I've had. I think he has the potential to be a Gold Cup horse one day. We'll just have to wait and see how he develops and I'd imagine he is more likely to run over hurdles than go for a winner’s bumper. He will be going chasing next season" - [trainer]

[RussP]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=socky1;624301]Cheltenham Festival Supreme Nov Hrdle Aran Concerto 25/1 (ladbrokes and Bet365) Russp has allready mentioned this and i'm having my first major anti post plunge on it. It runs at Navan on Sunday in a grade 2 Novice hurdle which if it wins will probally be Favourite for this race at around 5/1. Here is what Noel Meade said about this horse after he hacked up on his Bumper debut at Naas Three weeks ago:- "I probably shouldn't say it, but this horse just could be the best I've had. I think he has the potential to be a Gold Cup horse one day. We'll just have to wait and see how he develops and I'd imagine he is more likely to run over hurdles than go for a winner’s bumper. He will be going chasing next season" - [trainer][/quote] :ok Socky - I heard it needed 2m4f+ so thought it was to be aimed at the RSA, not Supreme Novices. Any comments?

[socky1]

Re: Ante Post bets OOPS that price is for RSA just put the wrong name on.

[RussP]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=bowles10;612748]Supreme Nov Hrdle Roll Along 25/1 Ladbrokes - made impressive start to its hurdles career at the course last week.[/quote] [quote=RussP;615808]RSA Hurdle - Aran Concerto (20/1 Coral) Noel Meade says this could be the best horse he has trained after just 1 NHF win[/quote] Both run Saturday:ok Roll Along takes in a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter (2.30) whilst Aran Concerto makes its debut over hurdles at Naas (1.00) Both expected to be short prices but I like the double tomorrow;)

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post bets i would agree with you Russ, that looks a good double. I also see you have Taranis at 6/1 for the PP Gold cup, good luck.

[RussP]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=bowles10;626717]i would agree with you Russ, that looks a good double. I also see you have Taranis at 6/1 for the PP Gold cup, good luck.[/quote] Cheers mate. Bit disappointed that Taranis now has to lump 11-12 around Cheltenham. Should run well but could find it difficult to finish in front.

[socky1]

Re: Ante Post bets Did anybody see the Aran Concerto Race I heard it was really unlucky and the price hasnt drifted too much for the RSA as a result so I imagine the jury is still out.

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post bets socky1;629033 would have won on the bridle IMO, socky. horse fell in front of it & rolled over meaning AC had to duck out of the way & it broke the rail. was just about to take the lead, but i think the jock got too near the rail for me, if he had been on the outside, he would nt have been involved.

[danj2202]

Re: Ante Post bets I heard that they preferred Noble Request for the Champion Hurdle more so than Detroit City based on work at home - that was before today though!!! certainly more value in that bet now that the price has gone on Detroit

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=bowles10;612748]I really want to tackle the ante post market this year & these are my initial bets for those big races coming up: Paddy power Gold Cup at Cheltenham Nov 12th: Fondmort 20/1 Paddy power Our Vic 8/1 Paddy power both love this course & that is the major factor at Cheltenham. Cheltenham Festival Supreme Nov Hrdle Roll Along 25/1 Ladbrokes - made impressive start to its hurdles career at the course last week. Press Gang 25/1 Ladbrokes - placed in last years bumper when 2nd to Hairy Molly, always worth following those placed in that race. Arkle Afsoun 25/1 Bluesq - Henderson likes this animal & again has ran well at the track. Will be an exciting chaser this year. Champion Hurdle Detroit City 8/1 Ladbrokes - won the triumph last year & recently the cesarewitch, will be hard to beat all season as very gutsy R & SA Hurdle Wichita Lineman 14/1 Coral won 1st start over hurdles very well for Jonjo & looks an exciting propsoect for AP to ride Pepperoni Pete 25/1 Stan James likewise won its 1st race over hurdles last week & will be worth following. Gold Cup State of Play 50/1 EW Paddy Power - back this one when the Hennessy betting at newbury is out, if it wins/placed in that will be shorter odds for the gold cup. I will stick this thread so we can see what returns we have come March 07. [/quote] my 2 PP entries didnt run with the injury to fondmort making it worse Onto the Henessey on Sat 25.11.06 [B][/B] State of play @ 8/1 Bet365 Turpin Green @ 10/1 Bluesq Fundalmentalist @ 40/1 Paddy power EW on every selection

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post bets Your prices for the hennesy will be looking good now with Star De Mohaison dropping out. Before it's last race I was going to tip it for the Hennessy at 10-1, was kicking myself when it won and got cut to 5's but left it and i'm glad I did now. Ultimate aim for Star De Mohaison is Cheltenham Gold Cup. I really rate this horse and with all plans leading to Cheltenham I think it has a great chance. I'm going to get on ante post, just looking for best odds now.

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=bowles10;631729]my 2 PP entries didnt run with the injury to fondmort making it worse Onto the Henessey on Sat 25.11.06 State of play @ 8/1 Bet365 Turpin Green @ 10/1 Bluesq Fundalmentalist @ 40/1 Paddy power EW on every selection[/quote] prices now 6/1 Jt favs State of play & turpin Green :ok Fundalmentalist still 40/1 which looks too big for me :eek

[alexmac]

Re: Ante Post bets STRAW BEAR @ 14/1 (Champion Hurdle) E/W I am jumping on the 14's tonight as if Straw Bear wins the 'Fighting Fifth' in good style tomorrow this price could seem rather large. Cinsidering that some bookies (Betfred) are already going 10's, 14/1 has got to be viewed as a good price. Straw Bear was just edged out by Noland last year, and I think he has the potential to go one better this time around. Yes, Detroit City is a strong favourite, so I am suggesting an E/W bet at a decent price on Straw Bear, who can hopefully run into a place.

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=bowles10;631729]Onto the Henessey on Sat 25.11.06 State of play @ 8/1 Bet365 EW on every selection[/quote] Firstly, well done on finding the winner. :ok Secondly, can't believe the SP was better than the ante post price.:wall It was described on CH4 Morning Line as young, progressive and lightly raced, exactly the type of horse I like to back and follow. Didn't get on it this time and haven't seen the race yet but will watch it back and might be one worth following. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=bowles10;612748]I really want to tackle the ante post market this year & these are my initial bets for those big races coming up: Gold Cup State of Play 50/1 EW Paddy Power - back this one when the Hennessy betting at newbury is out, if it wins/placed in that will be shorter odds for the gold cup. [/quote] [quote=bowles10;631729]my 2 PP entries didnt run with the injury to fondmort making it worse Onto the Henessey on Sat 25.11.06 State of play @ 8/1 Bet365 Turpin Green @ 10/1 Bluesq Fundalmentalist @ 40/1 Paddy power EW on every selection[/quote] 2 posts made on this beast, the first on 29.10.06 when i touted it for the Hennessey & to take the Gold Cup price of 50/1 :nana Never in doubt today, the jock gave it a superb ride around the inside throughout:ok Cheers Mowgli & thanks for following!

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=bowles10;641386]2 posts made on this beast, the first on 29.10.06 when i touted it for the Hennessey & to take the Gold Cup price of 50/1 :nana Never in doubt today, the jock gave it a superb ride around the inside throughout:ok Cheers Mowgli & thanks for following![/quote] Good stuff as usual, State of Play is now a best priced 16/1 with Coral & Vcbet & 14.5 to back 15/15.5 to lay Betfair.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Ante Post bets While I'm at it I'll put my ante-post bets in this thread, the full resoning is in my own thread but if there in here I can keep track of them as well. Gold Cup. 15pts @ 75.0 Betfair Beef or Salmon. I was hoping he'd run well with a view to laying this off & after he beat War of Attrition things were going ok but the distant second to Kauto Star has seen the price go out again. Hopefully he'll win the Lexus in some style again. Ladbroke World Hurdle. 20pts @ 20.0 Betfair Asian Maze. I think she would only have Black Jack Ketchum to beat here unless Hardy Eustace goes for this instead of the Champion, nothing else worries me at this time. Grand National. 15pts @ 40/1 VCBet Sir Rembrandt. Like AK I was disappointed when he was pulled out of last years race the night before. He has the right profile for this & is a Spring horse, if he gets in with the same sort of rating as last year he should go well. Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle. 15pts @ 25/1 Ladbrokes Aran Concerto. Liked Russ & Socky's thoughts on this & joined in with the bet. Champion Hurdle. 20pts @ 10.0 Betfair Iktitaf. The older brigade are there to be shot at. Straw Bear won well yesterday & Iktitaf has good winning form over that one from last season. Come back from injury well with a win in the Irish Ces' & three over hurdles including a grade 1 LTO with Brave Inca behind. Rio.

[Guest AK1979]

Re: Ante Post bets [QUOTE]Grand National. 15pts @ 40/1 VCBet Sir Rembrandt. Like AK I was disappointed when he was pulled out of last years race the night before. He has the right profile for this & is a Spring horse, if he gets in with the same sort of rating as last year he should go well.[/QUOTE] I'll be keeping an eye on this one Rio - 55.0 with betfair at the moment, which is big for a horse that was vying for favouritism last year.... my concerns at the moment are that he is obviously another year older, 11 year olds dont have a great record in the National and a rating in the early 150's could see him lumbered with a big weight. He certainly seems to peak at that time of year though.

[socky1]

Re: Ante Post bets [quote=whoneedsrio;642049] Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle. 15pts @ 25/1 Ladbrokes Aran Concerto. Liked Russ & Socky's thoughts on this & joined in with the bet. Rio.[/quote] Hacked up today by 17 lengths and some firms are as low as 12/1 now:nana

[Guest AK1979]

Re: Ante Post bets Good work Socky :ok I've just been having a browse through the National markets and spotted the 150.0 for PHILSON RUN. This one has some good form in long distance chases and will be specifically trained for the race, in the words of his trainer. he wouldnt want his rating to go up too much between now and April as he could find himself burdened with a big weight, but as it stands his rating of 138 is ideal. Also he would want some give in the ground which obviously isnt guaranteed in April. At 150.0 I think he's worth an antepost tickle - if he lines up he will be about one-fifth of that price.