Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[Banner]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 295 bets; +14.4% yield Loved this thread Grex great work!

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 295 bets; +14.4% yield Thanks, Banner :ok [FONT=comic sans ms] The last selections of the season coming up..... Serie A on Wednesday. Let´s hope we can finish the season with a "bang"[/FONT] :hope

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 295 bets; +14.4% yield Just in case anybody missed them.... selections for tonight (above) :ok

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 295 bets; +14.4% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Only Fiorentina let us down last night. So the end of the season for the system [/FONT]:cry[FONT=comic sans ms]. To be honest, the performance in 2011-2012 has not been as good as previous seasons, with only a 10.6% yield. I will post some overall statistics for the three seasons that the system has been running.... and I will continue to follow "theoretical" selections until the end of the season, to see if the 6-game cut-off rule again pays dividends. The final results.....[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield As promised, the overall statistics for the system since it started in 2009 The yield for each seson has steadily dropped from 17.1% in 2009-2010 to 10.6% for this season..... not a good sign :\ [FONT=comic sans ms]Its worth noting the excellent overall performance of Serie A compared with the English Premiership (17.2% cf 10.1%). The EP has really let the system down over the past two seasons with only a marginal positive yield. When you show the performance of the "Bank" in the form of a graph, you can see that it has generally increased, with only the occasional downward blip. [/FONT] [FONT=comic sans ms] Anyway, enough of boring statistics..... [/FONT]:zzz [FONT=comic sans ms] Enjoy your summer..... and may the best team win the EP (going to be tight I think, after last night's results)[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield As a matter of interest, if the system had continued, yesterday's game Sunderland v Wolves @ approx 1.55 would have qualified.... result? LOST :p

[justin919]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield grex,thanks for your picks. maybe sunderland's crews wanna enjoy summer vacation too...:cow

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Thanks for your thanks, Justin 919.... and to all the others who added their thanks to post #1025. Much appreciated :ok

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Games that would have made it this weekend.... if the system had still been running: 21/04/12 EP Newcastle v Stoke @ 1.70 (William Hill) 22/04/12 IA Lazio v Lecce @ 1.67 (Pinnacle) [/FONT]

[zbrochu]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Hi Grex, maybe I missed it in the thread but why do you close the season now? And my other question is: are you willing to share what the stats would be for fixed 10 unit stakes? Thanks.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [QUOTE=zbrochu;2150612]Hi Grex, maybe I missed it in the thread but why do you close the season now? And my other question is: are you willing to share what the stats would be for fixed 10 unit stakes? Thanks.[/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]During back-testing, the first 6 rounds and the last 6 rounds of each season performed poorly... that's why the system has closed for this season. I don't understand your question about "fixed 10 unit stakes"...... the system, and all the posted stats, ARE based on level stakes of 10 units. [/FONT]

[zbrochu]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2150634][FONT=comic sans ms]During back-testing, the first 6 rounds and the last 6 rounds of each season performed poorly... that's why the system has closed for this season. I don't understand your question about "fixed 10 unit stakes"...... the system, and all the posted stats, ARE based on level stakes of 10 units. [/FONT][/QUOTE] OK thanks, I did not follow these thread before so i thought you were using rules mentioned in first post, that stakes are varied depending whether last bet was won or lost. Thanks again and good luck in next season.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Now I understand, zbrochu..... I dropped the "loss-recovery" staking plan at the end of the 2009-10 season because the straight 10 unit stakes were more profitable (see Post #285, page 8) :ok

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2149504][FONT=comic sans ms]Games that would have made it this weekend.... if the system had still been running: 21/04/12 EP Newcastle v Stoke @ 1.70 (William Hill) [/FONT]:D 22/04/12 IA Lazio v Lecce @ 1.67 (Pinnacle) :( [/QUOTE] A "theoretical" losing weekend :p

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Another unofficial selection tonight would be our old favourite.... ROMA v Fiorentina (1.68 Pinnacle)

[A Woods]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Grex;2150705 Interesting because I bought The Staking Machine a few years ago which I used on my win/loss data and it always indicated that Level Stakes was the best system. Some people seem to think that there are magical staking plans that can turn a losing system into a winning system and whilst there may be such things theoretically, in practice there's nothing like level stakes

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Totally agree, Mr Woods.... and results for 2009/10 confirmed it :ok [/FONT] Grex;2152378 [FONT=comic sans ms]Good job the system has shut down for the season.... good ol' Roma blew it against Fiorentina (1-2) ;) [/FONT]

[jl294]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Your system seems to obviously work, but like you said the EP hasnt faired so well.. If you had used oddschecker and found the best price based on your B354 selection at a different bookmaker, than maybe the yield would increase by a couple of % and would make the EP yield more comfortable to look at :P

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Thanks for your comment, jl294. The selections are based on Bet365 odds, but the posted odds are the best available from the main-line bookies such as William Hill, Pinnacle, Interwetten, Paddy Power etc. I could boost the yield by taking the highest odds of all, but that would include some more obscure bookies and would mean that you would have to have dozens of accounts to actually achieve the increased yield. So, I think I have a reasonable compromise.[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Two unofficial selections for today.... Everton v Fulham @ 1.83 (William Hill) Swansea v Wolves @ 1.53 (William Hill)[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2154051][FONT=comic sans ms]Two unofficial selections for today.... Everton v Fulham @ 1.83 (William Hill) WON 4-0 Swansea v Wolves @ 1.53 (William Hill)[/FONT] LOST 4-4[/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]Since the end of this season's system, there have been 6 unofficial selections..... 2 winners, 4 losers.... staked 60 units - returned 35.30 units [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Two "theoretical" selections for mid-week..... 01/05/12 Liverpool - Fulham @ 1.67 (Unibet) 02/05/12 Chelsea - Newcastle @ 1.53 (William Hill)[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2155367][FONT=comic sans ms]Two "theoretical" selections for mid-week..... 01/05/12 Liverpool - Fulham @ 1.67 (Unibet) LOST 0-1 :\ 02/05/12 Chelsea - Newcastle @ 1.53 (William Hill) LOST 0-2 :\[/FONT][/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]It certainly paid dividends to stop with 6 rounds to go....... performance since then.... 2 winners, 6 losers... staked 80 units, returned 35.30 units. I really can't explain why the system goes pear-shaped at the end of the season, but it has consistently done it over the past 7-8 seasons PS. Let's hope Newcastle can do the same to Citeh on Sunday (sorry, "banter" not allowed on this forum) ;) [/FONT]

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Well done on maintaining a profitable system for so long Grex. I'm hoping I can do something similar and I'm definitely going to be following your system next season! It would be silly not to with that kind of return :p I think you hinted to me in another thread that results are unpredictable at this time of the season. This is probably due to a number of factors e.g. lack of motivation, team changes, other priorities etc. I think there are actually more home wins towards the end of the season (that's what my stats showed anyway) it's just that it's not necessarily the short priced ones that offer great value at this time. Looking forward to the Newcastle v City game too... I wonder what sort of price will be available on Newcastle?

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]You are certainly right about "changed priorities".... I think that could be a lot do with the strange Chelsea and Liverpool results this week (both play in the FA Cup Final). The odds on the Newcastle - Citeh game are around 5.50/4.00/1.65 which, for me, are far too long on Newcastle.... shall we see ! [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Two more "non-selections" for the weekend.... 05/05/12 Roma - Catania @ 1.67 (Ladbrokes) 06/05/12 Udinese - Genoa @ 1.65 (William Hill)[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2156451][FONT=comic sans ms]Two more "non-selections" for the weekend.... 05/05/12 Roma - Catania @ 1.67 (Ladbrokes) LOST 2-2 06/05/12 Udinese - Genoa @ 1.65 WON 2-0 (William Hill)[/FONT][/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]Again, the usually reliable Roma blew it. Since the system finished for the season.... 3 winners, 7 losers..... staked 100 units, returned 51.8 units [/FONT]

[davidc]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Hi Grex Nice to see your system doing so poorly :lol (after the official cut off point)!

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Thanks, David. I am not posting the unofficial results just to gloat..... simply to show the benefit of stopping the system with 6 rounds to go. A strange phenomenon, but it always seems to happen.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Just one "non-selection" for the final weekend of the season..... 13/05/12 Wigan - Wolves @ 1.65 (William Hill)[/FONT]