Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]As I said, two for the weekend..... [/FONT]

[MPLouis]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield Grex;2226143 Out of interest, why not Grex? If you trust your system, aren't you depriving yourself of profit?

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]It is not a question of "trust", MPLouis. I think the system has proven itself over three seasons and 305 bets. I simply choose not to bet...... I keep the system going for the benefit of others. Having said that, I still get a "buzz" when I follow the results, even though I have no money at stake ;)[/FONT]

[MPLouis]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield Sorry - perhaps I shouldn't have used that word. Anyway, congratulations on a successful system :D

[Datapunter]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield Have you kept any kind of record on: Bet365 odds compared to industry average at the time of making the selections ? Selections odds compared to industry average and Betfair odds at the time of kickoff ? Can you tell me on past seasons, a) the strike rate, per season. b) the average odds of winners, so not all selections, just of winning selections, per season. c) they yield gotten per season, so not overall but per season. ( i'll dig it up myself if you got things in a spreadsheet i can have ) I suspect the high yield on the system is simply down to the ability to bet at odds well above the industry average. As long as you can maintain getting top prices that is all there is to it. Milan: Industry: 1.42 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.41 (after commission 1.39) You got: 1.53 Roma: Industry: 1.55 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.59 (after commission 1.56) You got: 1.62

[osbert]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield @datapunter - odds have shortened in the last 24hrs. Yesterday I backed Roma @1.588 (pinnacle). I saw Milan @1.5 with other bookies, but didn't bet (I only have 2 accounts at the moment). I only came across this thread a few weeks ago (thanks for sharing the method Grex!), from what I have seen in that time, Grex's stated odds are kosher.

[ExeRok]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield [QUOTE=Datapunter;2227518]I suspect the high yield on the system is simply down to the ability to bet at odds well above the industry average. As long as you can maintain getting top prices that is all there is to it. Milan: Industry: 1.42 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.41 (after commission 1.39) You got: 1.53 Roma: Industry: 1.55 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.59 (after commission 1.56) You got: 1.62[/QUOTE] I can just say from my own experience of following Grex's systems, but odds were never hard to find. Actually, I mostly get better odds than those posted. Odds that Grex give are available at WH or Pinnacle. So it's not the matter of fishing for best price 1 hour before game starts, but the matter of betting it early (Friday), when selections are released. I bet it early, and never mentioned something wrong with odds or stats keeping. So just want to thanks Grex for all his efforts and honesty, good job!

[davidc]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield Hi ExeRok, :welcome to The Punters Lounge ExeRok;2227554 I agree with you and usually am able to get around the same odds as Grex posts for his bets. I think that using industry average odds can be a little misleading as it only takes 3 or 4 books to be substantially lower than most others to drag down the average price. As for Betfair odds - they usually are marginally less (after commission) than at the best priced bookies.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield Hi Datapunter, [QUOTE=Datapunter;2227518]Have you kept any kind of record on: Bet365 odds compared to industry average at the time of making the selections ? Selections odds compared to industry average and Betfair odds at the time of kickoff ? Can you tell me on past seasons, a) the strike rate, per season. b) the average odds of winners, so not all selections, just of winning selections, per season. c) they yield gotten per season, so not overall but per season. ( i'll dig it up myself if you got things in a spreadsheet i can have )[/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]A lot of analysis required, but I will try to come up with the goods next week. [/FONT] [QUOTE=Datapunter;2227518]I suspect the high yield on the system is simply down to the ability to bet at odds well above the industry average. As long as you can maintain getting top prices that is all there is to it.[/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]As I have explained many times before, the original back-testing was based on data published on football-data.co.uk. The site publishes odds at approx. 24 hours before KO. Therefore, to be statistically consistent, I post my "live" selections at about the same time. The odds quoted are the best available from the main-stream bookies. As Osbert, ExeRok and Davidc have confirmed, the quoted odds are not exaggerated. [/FONT] [QUOTE=Datapunter;2227518] Milan: Industry: 1.42 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.41 (after commission 1.39) You got: 1.53 Roma: Industry: 1.55 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.59 (after commission 1.56) You got: 1.62[/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]I honestly don't understand why your quoted odds are so much lower than mine. I can only assume that the odds fell quite dramatically from 24 hours before KO until the time of your quote. BTW, it looks as though the 100% start to the season may be broken...... after 65', Milan drawing 0-0 :\ [/FONT]

[pet33]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield Datapunter, I just want to add my voice to the choir above. I did compare Grex's odds with what was on offer in past seasons and it was never difficult to find slightly better odds. Fair play to him.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2227700][FONT=comic sans ms]BTW, it looks as though the 100% start to the season may be broken...... after 65', Milan drawing 0-0 :\ [/FONT][/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]Wrong..... Milan 1-0 FT :ok [/FONT]

[Datapunter]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield I wasn't criticising or implying exaggeration, apologies if it reads that way, just making an observation that's all. If you want to know if the system continues to perform over time then you need a reference on prices used. If the strike rate remains stable but the prices available become lower vs the industry average you can predict a lower yield, even to the point of it turning negative. If the strike rate changes it may be an indication that Bet365 has changed the way they price these matches.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]No apology needed, Datapunter...... it was probably my fault for not understanding your original comments. I will do an analysis of the last 3 seasons to try and detect any shift in trend of Bet365 odds compared with average offered odds, and see if that is reflected in terms of yield.[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2225575][FONT=comic sans ms]First, the bad news.... it looks as though there will be only two selection for the weekend (both from Serie A). The good news is...... one of them is ROMA :nanawho have been an amazing performer for this system over the past 3 seasons. No. selections = 17 No. wins = 16 Yield = 57% :loon[/FONT][/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]Why didn't I keep my big mouth shut. The normally-dependable Roma blew it :@ Should be two for Serie A midweek. [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 305 bets; +15.5% yield [QUOTE=Datapunter;2227518]Have you kept any kind of record on: Bet365 odds compared to industry average at the time of making the selections ? Selections odds compared to industry average and Betfair odds at the time of kickoff ? Can you tell me on past seasons, a) the strike rate, per season. b) the average odds of winners, so not all selections, just of winning selections, per season. c) they yield gotten per season, so not overall but per season. ( i'll dig it up myself if you got things in a spreadsheet i can have ) I suspect the high yield on the system is simply down to the ability to bet at odds well above the industry average. As long as you can maintain getting top prices that is all there is to it. Milan: Industry: 1.42 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.41 (after commission 1.39) You got: 1.53 Roma: Industry: 1.55 (see betexplorer) Betfair: 1.59 (after commission 1.56) You got: 1.62[/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]Using data from football-data.co.uk, I have compared Bet365 odds with BetBrain average odds (usually about 38 bookies) over the past three seasons. For my system's range of 1.45 to 1.80, I can detect no unusual shift in the comparison over the period. Bet365 odds are normally +/- 5% of the average, and the average Bet365 odds for the total selections are almost exactly the same as the average of the average odds (if you see what I mean). Again, I am surprised at the low odds you quote in the above post, and reiterate that it must be due to falling odds for home favourites between 24 hours before KO and immediately before KO. While I was "tinkering" I tried to come up with a revised staking plan to take into account the big discrepancy in perfomance between the EP and IA: [/FONT] [FONT=comic sans ms]Serie A has performed much better than the EP and, therefore, it is logical to risk higher stakes on IA. Similarly, the yield on higher odds (i.e. between 1.60 and 1.80 is superior to the shorter odds - so the stakes should be "weighted" in favour of the higher odds. The revised staking plan produces about 2.5% - 3.0% higher yield, but the stakes are comparatively high..... and so is the risk. I will run the new staking plan in parallel with the flat 10 unit system and see how it goes..... starting with Wednesday's Serie A.[/FONT]

[pet33]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield There are so many people coming and asking you questions now (myself included) that I really hesitate to throw another one but I thought that given your previous research possibly you might find an answer to this one easily. If it's not the case just ignore me. The question I have in mind regards theoretical results for both leagues respectively (exactly as you presented it for actual results) for the six seasons you analysed before you started your thread. I thought then we could see how both leagues performed over 9 seasons (significant period of time) and could see if this big discrepancy between them is a deviation or a pattern, whether it's widening or narrowing and so on... Again, I ask this question in hope it's easy to answer. If it's too much hassle please ignore it :)

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Hi Pet33...... feel free to ask as many questions as you want :ok I will try to produce the suggested analysis when I find some time to spare.[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]OK..... here are Wednesday evening's selections. As I said in a previous post, I am experimenting with an alternative "X" staking system. The stakes are "weighted" depending on the odds and the league. The yields quoted are based on previous results, therefore the "X" system is strictly unofficial. The stakes may seem very high..... this is partly due to the fact that they are IA games, and the odds are near the top end of the range. [/FONT]

[pet33]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield You shouldn't have encouraged me ;) I think I understand quite obvious rationale for the“X” staking plan but I can't quite understand why you based it on 1000 units as starting point rather than 100 as in your original staking plan. Especially since the aim of this exercise is to compare both of them. Is it just to avoid fractions? Also, again I wonder whether this bias in performance towards IA on which you base you “X” staking plan (“weighting” the stakes in favour of IA) is a long or short-term pattern. If – but only if - it's the former one maybe it would be simpler and more profitable just to get rid of EP altogether? If it's the latter one I understand it should stay for diversification of both risk and profit.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]I did seriously consider dropping the EP, but then I would be accused of inconsistency. Hence the new staking system to minimise the effect of the EP's historical poor performance. By the way, it's a bit worrying to note that Lazio have drifted out significantly to 1.83 with Bet365 and 1.92 with Pinnacle:unsure. However, they were 1.75 with Bet365 24 hours before KO, so qualify.[/FONT]

[thecurlyone1]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield Lazio are missing Ederson , Marchetti , Stankevicius, & Radu also Ledesma & Hernanes are suspended , that'll explain the move Grex :(

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield [QUOTE=thecurlyone1;2229123]Lazio are missing Ederson , Marchetti , Stankevicius, & Radu also Ledesma & Hernanes are suspended , that'll explain the move Grex :([/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]Thanks for the info, Curlyone..... let's hope Lazio have a good-quality reserve team ;) [/FONT]

[westcoast]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield 2 out of 3 for me tonight,included Inter since 4/7 (1.57) was available,cant see the logic in leaving them out because bet365 and others think they have a greater chance of winning.if bet365 thought they were a 4/7 chance like boyles and stan james and not 4/11 they would have been included. Not trying to mess with grexs system and we have talked about it via pm`s but its just logical to include such selections. 11 selections 9 wins 2 loses 3.75 point profit so far.

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Thanks for the input, Westcoast. I understand your logic...... but the system was based on hard back-tested statistics, with the conclusion that a strict range of Bet365 odds between 1.45 and 1.80 (inclusive) gave the best historical performance. If tou included the 1.44 odds, the performance dropped-off Last night a weakened Lazio team (see post #1131) let us down :\. It looks as though there could be as many as eight selections for the weekend :loon [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 307 bets; +15.3% yield Grex;2229488 [FONT=comic sans ms]..... and eight there are...... [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 309 bets; +15.1% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]A lousy weekend so far...... Spurs, Liverpool, Juventus and Napoli all failing to win. Let's hope West Brom come up with the goods tonight :hope I will post the updated table tomorrow morning.[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 309 bets; +15.1% yield Sorry for the delay in posting last weekend's results. Looks as though there will only be two selections for the weekend..... both from the under-performing EP :\

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 317 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Posting a bit early...... [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 317 bets; +14.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Another bad weekend.... only Man City coming from behind to win. [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Grex's HOMES; 320 bets; +13.7% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Six selections for the weekend...... 5 of them from Serie A [/FONT]