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Grex's OVERS; 283 bets; +12.1% yield


Grex

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 335 bets; +8% yield TZOGAS;1930485 Hi, Tzogas..... no, I will concentrate only on the EP, EC and IA.... so, we can have a nice summer break :ok [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] In a very high-scoring EC today, the "unders" did manage to make a small profit.... bless 'em. The one "over" selection beat the >2.5, but not the >3.5 :\ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]
OVERS[/SIZE]
No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00 100.00
119 23/04/2011 EC Millwall 40 Preston 1.92 10.00 W 9.20 360.90 22% 3.50 W 25.00 603.81 42%
120 25/04/2011 EC Scunthorpe 12 Millwall 1.95 10.00 W 9.50 370.40 23% 3.40 L -10.00 593.81 41%
UNDERS
No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00
223 23/04/2011 EP Blackpool 11 Newcastle 2.35 10.00 W 13.50 118.40 1%
224 23/04/2011 EP Tottenham 22 West Brom 2.36 10.00 L -10.00 108.40 0%
225 23/04/2011 EC Cardiff 22 QPR 1.89 10.00 L -10.00 98.40 0%
226 23/04/2011 EC Derby 24 Burnley 1.96 10.00 L -10.00 88.40 -1%
227 23/04/2011 EC Sheff United 32 Bristol City 1.86 10.00 L -10.00 78.40 -1%
228 23/04/2011 IA Bari 01 Sampdoria 1.80 10.00 W 8.00 86.40 -1%
229 23/04/2011 IA Brescia 01 Milan 1.84 10.00 W 8.40 94.80 0%
230 24/04/2011 EP Bolton 21 Arsenal 2.32 10.00 L -10.00 84.80 -1%
231 25/04/2011 EC Barnsley 22 Doncaster 1.96 10.00 L -10.00 74.80 -1%
232 25/04/2011 EC Burnley 11 Portsmouth 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 85.60 -1% OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR]
233 25/04/2011 EC Crystal Palace 10 Leeds 2.11 10.00 W 11.10 96.70 0% BETS354
234 25/04/2011 EC Middlesbrough 21 Coventry 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 86.70 -1% YIELD[SIZE=1]7%[COLOR=#000080]
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 354 bets; +7% yield Hello, I've been looking at your thread with interest for a few days, well done on the amazing results. Wondered if you've considered putting your results through spss to see if there is statistical significance (probability of less than .05) for some of the variables like strengths of players against others, and which factors are affecting the results more than others? You might find a relationship that gives you a clue as to why your system works so well and what's affecting the scores would be clearer! Also, out of curiosity, how many of the stats that lost for the overs would have been a winner at >1.5 or 0.5? Do you have any percentages for it? Looking through it looks like an amazing success rate! Just thoughts, well done again on the great system!!
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 354 bets; +7% yield Just did a little test of just 12 stats, 6 wins and 6 losses as the thread is hard to navigate, but came up as statistically significant for the means of your wins compared to losses, I don't know what your filtering system is but the odds seem to be right :)
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 354 bets; +7% yield Thanks for your suggestions, Bambamsophz. bambamsophz;1932751 Sorry, you have lost me there..... if you can explain how it is done, then I will have a look. [quote=bambamsophz;1932751] Also, out of curiosity, how many of the stats that lost for the overs would have been a winner at >1.5 or 0.5? Do you have any percentages for it?[/quote] This question, I can answer..... >0.5 - 89.2%.... >1.5 - 80.0%.... >2.5 - 58.5%.... >3.5 - 37.5%. The average odds in the EP for >0.5 this weekend are 1.056... for >1.5 they are 1.318. Assuming these odds are representative, (which they are not), it would give a negative yield on the >0.5s of 5.8%, and a positive yield on the >1.5s of 5.4%..... neither of which are as good as the actual yield on >2.5 and >3.5. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] This weekend throws up a load more "unders" and no "overs" :\. Some very unlikely "unders" as well.... Man City - West Ham :loon Blackpool - Stoke :loon:loon
OVERS[/SIZE]
No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00 100.00
120 25/04/2011 EC Scunthorpe 12 Millwall 1.95 10.00 W 9.50 370.40 23% 3.40 L -10.00 593.81 41%
UNDERS
No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00
231 25/04/2011 EC Barnsley 22 Doncaster 1.96 10.00 L -10.00 74.80 -1%
232 25/04/2011 EC Burnley 11 Portsmouth 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 85.60 -1%
233 25/04/2011 EC Crystal Palace 10 Leeds 2.11 10.00 W 11.10 96.70 0%
234 25/04/2011 EC Middlesbrough 21 Coventry 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 86.70 -1%
235 30/04/2011 EP Blackpool Stoke 2.15 10.00
236 30/04/2011 EP West Brom Aston Villa 2.02 10.00
237 30/04/2011 EP Chelsea Tottenham 2.27 10.00
238 30/04/2011 EC Doncaster Leicester 2.08 10.00
239 30/04/2011 EC Sheff United Barnsley 2.04 10.00
240 30/04/2011 EC Watford QPR 1.94 10.00
241 30/04/2011 IA Cesena Inter 2.01 10.00 OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR]
242 01/05/2011 EP Man City West Ham 2.29 10.00 BETS354
243 01/05/2011 IA Bari Roma 2.30 10.00 YIELD[SIZE=1]7%[COLOR=#000080]
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 354 bets; +7% yield You'd have to download it first, you can get a free trial by typing it in google, think it's on the IBM website, I'll post some notes up at some point when I find them on my computer, explaining the basic effect of multiple things on another tests! There are tons of tutorials online though as well, I'm not the best at it, I just assumed because you were handy with excel you might have SPSS on your computer :rollin. It'd just help you see which things impact the results more than others, such as the striker's strength etc.:)
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 354 bets; +7% yield The "unders" did OK today..... would have been even better but for two added-time goals by Inter :eek [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]
OVERS[/SIZE]
No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00 100.00
120 25/04/2011 EC Scunthorpe 12 Millwall 1.95 10.00 W 9.50 370.40 23% 3.40 L -10.00 593.81 41%
UNDERS
No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00
231 25/04/2011 EC Barnsley 22 Doncaster 1.96 10.00 L -10.00 74.80 -1%
232 25/04/2011 EC Burnley 11 Portsmouth 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 85.60 -1%
233 25/04/2011 EC Crystal Palace 10 Leeds 2.11 10.00 W 11.10 96.70 0%
234 25/04/2011 EC Middlesbrough 21 Coventry 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 86.70 -1%
235 30/04/2011 EP Blackpool 00 Stoke 2.15 10.00 W 11.50 98.20 0%
236 30/04/2011 EP West Brom 21 Aston Villa 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 88.20 -1%
237 30/04/2011 EP Chelsea 00 Tottenham 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 100.90 0%
238 30/04/2011 EC Doncaster 11 Leicester 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 111.70 0%
239 30/04/2011 EC Sheff United 22 Barnsley 2.04 10.00 L -10.00 101.70 0%
240 30/04/2011 EC Watford 02 QPR 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 111.10 0%
241 30/04/2011 IA Cesena 12 Inter 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 101.10 0% OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR]
242 01/05/2011 EP Man City West Ham 2.29 10.00 BETS361
243 01/05/2011 IA Bari Roma 2.30 10.00 YIELD[SIZE=1]8%[COLOR=#000080]
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 354 bets; +7% yield [QUOTE=Grex;1934951]The "unders" did OK today..... would have been even better but for two added-time goals by Inter :eek [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]
OVERS[/SIZE]
No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00 100.00
120 25/04/2011 EC Scunthorpe 12 Millwall 1.95 10.00 W 9.50 370.40 23% 3.40 L -10.00 593.81 41%
UNDERS
No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00
231 25/04/2011 EC Barnsley 22 Doncaster 1.96 10.00 L -10.00 74.80 -1%
232 25/04/2011 EC Burnley 11 Portsmouth 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 85.60 -1%
233 25/04/2011 EC Crystal Palace 10 Leeds 2.11 10.00 W 11.10 96.70 0%
234 25/04/2011 EC Middlesbrough 21 Coventry 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 86.70 -1%
235 30/04/2011 EP Blackpool 00 Stoke 2.15 10.00 W 11.50 98.20 0%
236 30/04/2011 EP West Brom 21 Aston Villa 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 88.20 -1%
237 30/04/2011 EP Chelsea 00 Tottenham 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 100.90 0%
238 30/04/2011 EC Doncaster 11 Leicester 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 111.70 0%
239 30/04/2011 EC Sheff United 22 Barnsley 2.04 10.00 L -10.00 101.70 0%
240 30/04/2011 EC Watford 02 QPR 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 111.10 0%
241 30/04/2011 IA Cesena 12 Inter 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 101.10 0% OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR]
242 01/05/2011 EP Man City West Ham 2.29 10.00 BETS361
243 01/05/2011 IA Bari Roma 2.30 10.00 YIELD[SIZE=1]8%[COLOR=#000080]
[/QUOTE] Looks like you've got a wee typo there, Grex, as Chelsea beat Spurs 2-1 - although neither of their goals should have stood IMO - which would have made your bet a winner. :lol
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 354 bets; +7% yield davidc;1935075 You're right, David...... I think it was wishful thinking on my part :D [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I will correct it with Sunday's results. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 361 bets; +8% yield The problem is that my source of historical data (football-data.co.uk) does not cover the summer leagues. i.e. the Scandinavian leagues. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] If anyone can point me to a site that gives historical data on 1X2 and O/U odds, then I will have a go :ok
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 361 bets; +8% yield The weekend's "unders" were, again, hopeless :@ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I have decided to draw a line under this system for the season. There are so many desperate league winner/promotion/relegation issues at stake over the next few weeks, that will probably affect the goal-scoring prediction of matches. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I will return next season, but with "overs" only. I will try to do a statistical analysis of the performance of the various leagues and publish it as soon as possible. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I hope some readers managed to make a small profit, particularly on the "overs". The final table for 2010/11 is as follows....... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]
OVERS[/SIZE]
No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00 100.00
120 25/04/2011 EC Scunthorpe 12 Millwall 1.95 10.00 W 9.50 370.40 23% 3.40 L -10.00 593.81 41%
UNDERS
No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00
231 25/04/2011 EC Barnsley 22 Doncaster 1.96 10.00 L -10.00 74.80 -1%
232 25/04/2011 EC Burnley 11 Portsmouth 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 85.60 -1%
233 25/04/2011 EC Crystal Palace 10 Leeds 2.11 10.00 W 11.10 96.70 0%
234 25/04/2011 EC Middlesbrough 21 Coventry 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 86.70 -1%
235 30/04/2011 EP Blackpool 00 Stoke 2.15 10.00 W 11.50 98.20 0%
236 30/04/2011 EP West Brom 21 Aston Villa 2.02 10.00 L -10.00 88.20 -1%
237 30/04/2011 EP Chelsea 21 Tottenham 2.27 10.00 L -10.00 78.20 -1%
238 30/04/2011 EC Doncaster 11 Leicester 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 89.00 0%
239 30/04/2011 EC Sheff United 22 Barnsley 2.04 10.00 L -10.00 79.00 -1%
240 30/04/2011 EC Watford 02 QPR 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 88.40 0%
241 30/04/2011 IA Cesena 12 Inter 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 78.40 -1% OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR]
242 01/05/2011 EP Man City 21 West Ham 2.29 10.00 L -10.00 68.40 -1% BETS363
243 01/05/2011 IA Bari 23 Roma 2.30 10.00 L -10.00 58.40 -2% YIELD[SIZE=1]6%[COLOR=#000080]
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  • 4 weeks later...
Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 363 bets; +6% yield Hi Grex, I've posted an exel queery in the General Betting help forum, reguarding using data from football-data.co.uk . Is it something you could push me in the right direction with, cheers jimjohn.
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 363 bets; +6% yield Donkson;1935954 Thanks, Donkson..... if you look at the next post, you will see my approach for next season. jimjohn;1949647 Looks like you have already had some expert advice on your thread.... above my head, I'm afraid ;)
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 363 bets; +6% yield In post # 425, I promised to provide some statistics for the system’s performance this season. The table below shows the yield statistics for the 2010-11 season and a comparison of the percentage of games that went over 2.5 and over 3.5 for this season, and for the previous 7 seasons (I have ignored the “unders” for obvious reasons :\ )
Lge% games > 2.5> 2.5 Yield 2010-11% games > 3.5> 3.5 Yield 2010-11
2003-102010-112003-102010-11
EP48%54%26%27%30%26%
EC47%52%22%25%28%51%
IA47%45%13%27%26%29%
So..... for over 2.5..... the % of over 2.5s for EP and EC for this season was significantly up compared with the previous 7 seasons..... this could partly explain the relatively high yields. However, for the Serie A, the percentage of over 2.5s was actually down on previous seasons, but there was still a healthy yield of 13%. For over 3.5.... again the % of over 3.5s for the EP and EC were up on previous seasons, but only slightly..... and yet very good yields were achieved. For Serie A, the % of over 3.5s was slightly down for this season, but an excellent yield of 29% was achieved. Conclusions..... the good return on “overs” can be explained to some extent by the fact that there was generally more games finishing over this season than previous seasons. However, the positive results for Serie A suggest that the system has a statistical selection advantage. Next season, I will definitely concentrate on the “overs”, and possibly introduce a staking system targeting the over 3.5s, but with an over 2.5 “cover”. I will work on this over the summer. I wish everyone a great summer.... and, if you continue betting, a profitable summer :ok
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  • 2 months later...
Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 363 bets; +6% yield Greetings Mr G. I hope you are enjoying your summer vacation, i have to say i'm itching for the off. You must be going up the proverbial having to wait until mid Sept for your kick-off ! Anyway to the business of a certain footy match being played at the Twin Towers (not) this weekend. It's champagne in Kensington or a kebab in Clapham time again. I have to say it's extremely sunny with blue skies in Manc as we speak and in poor old Stretford very cloudy with a distinct chance of thundery showers which may last for quite some time.I have to say that if i were on the fence on this one i would have to have a punt on my boys to edge it and bag the silver serving platter for what it's worth ! I suspect a seriously competitive game for some reason ! I hope my message finds you well and that you are up for the systems to perform amazingly well during the forthcoming season. Cheers matey and good luck. :cheers
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 363 bets; +6% yield Hi, Bluemanc..... nice to see you're straining at the leash. I thought you would be exhausted after the Tevez affair..... will he, won't he.... who cares :p. Good luck for Sunday... I hope you enjoy your day out. If I was betting on on it, I would go for United on penalties, but I'm keeping my money in my pocket. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Anyway, the season proper gets underway in the Championship, and there is one "overs" selection. As I said at the end of last season, I am dropping the unders.... let's see how it goes :ok
No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00 100.00
114 16/04/2011 EC Crystal Palace 12 Scunthorpe 1.91 10.00 W 9.10 372.40 24% 3.30 L -10.00 618.81 46%
115 16/04/2011 IA Milan 30 Sampdoria 1.93 10.00 W 9.30 381.70 24% 3.20 L -10.00 608.81 44%
116 17/04/2011 IA Cesena 10 Bari 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 371.70 23% 3.60 L -10.00 598.81 43%
117 17/04/2011 IA Fiorentina 00 Juventus 1.98 10.00 L -10.00 361.70 22% 3.50 L -10.00 588.81 42%
118 17/04/2011 IA Chievo 20 Bologna 2.34 10.00 L -10.00 351.70 21% 4.00 L -10.00 578.81 41%
119 23/04/2011 EC Millwall 40 Preston 1.92 10.00 W 9.20 360.90 22% 3.50 W 25.00 603.81 42%
120 25/04/2011 EC Scunthorpe 12 Millwall 1.95 10.00 W 9.50 370.40 23% 3.40 L -10.00 593.81 41%
121 07/08/2011 EC West Ham Cardiff 1.94 10.00 3.40
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 120 bets; +23% yield Seems like an interesting topic ;) Going to wait and see what the results are after a couple of weeks. I don't know what the details of your system are (I assume you didn't post it already in one of those 22 pages ;)) so I'm not gonna follow you blindly from the beginning. Good luck!!
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 120 bets; +23% yield ..... Just like to wish you good luck with this project for the new season Grex and trust all goes well. Sent you a couple of private messages, did you get them OK? Cheers. [COLOR=#0000ff][/COLOR] Merlin.
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 120 bets; +23% yield Thanks to everybody for your good wishes. :ok [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Today, 8 out of the 10 Championship games finished over 2.5.... so by the Law of Averages, tomorrow's selection at West Ham should finish under :\
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 120 bets; +23% yield Hi, Rayzor.... and :welcome to PL.... I am honoured that you dedicated your first post to this thread ;) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Thanks for the good wishes :ok
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 120 bets; +23% yield That was a good start to the new season (not) :\ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]
No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield
100.00 100.00
114 16/04/2011 EC Crystal Palace 12 Scunthorpe 1.91 10.00 W 9.10 372.40 24% 3.30 L -10.00 618.81 46%
115 16/04/2011 IA Milan 30 Sampdoria 1.93 10.00 W 9.30 381.70 24% 3.20 L -10.00 608.81 44%
116 17/04/2011 IA Cesena 10 Bari 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 371.70 23% 3.60 L -10.00 598.81 43%
117 17/04/2011 IA Fiorentina 00 Juventus 1.98 10.00 L -10.00 361.70 22% 3.50 L -10.00 588.81 42%
118 17/04/2011 IA Chievo 20 Bologna 2.34 10.00 L -10.00 351.70 21% 4.00 L -10.00 578.81 41%
119 23/04/2011 EC Millwall 40 Preston 1.92 10.00 W 9.20 360.90 22% 3.50 W 25.00 603.81 42%
120 25/04/2011 EC Scunthorpe 12 Millwall 1.95 10.00 W 9.50 370.40 23% 3.40 L -10.00 593.81 41%
121 07/08/2011 EC West Ham 01 Cardiff 1.94 10.00 L -10.00 360.40 22% 3.40 L -10.00 583.81 40%
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