only1woz Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 Looking back over my results I have decided to drop the Eridivisie in Holland from my selections. It's a league where goals are expected, unfortunately they're also expexted by the bookies, so the value is pretty poor. Had a few losers from Holland and I think it's costing the system. In light of that, here is the weekends selections 26.09.germainzb munich1.65£6.182.52£14.4626.09.gerwolfsburghannover1.66£6.282.60£15.2226.09.gerhamburgschalke2£9.503.30£21.8726.09.scokilmarnockhamilton2.2£11.414.50£33.8226.09.spasevillavallecano1.58£5.522.50£14.2627.09bellokerenbrugge1.9£8.563.20£20.9227.09belanderlecht st truiden1.7£6.662.64£15.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Weekends results (including the Valarenga match that I acidentally didn't post up, but it was a loser anyway). Not going brilliantly so far. Going to have a detailed look at this tonight . 22.09.spaespanyolvalencia2.24-£10.004.20-£10.001 023.09.swenorrkopingdjurgarden1.9£8.563.30£21.874 225.09.norvalarengastart1.65-£10.002.64-£10.001 126.09.germainzb munich1.65£6.182.52-£10.000 326.09.gerwolfsburghannover1.66-£10.002.60-£10.001 126.09.gerhamburgschalke2-£10.003.30-£10.000 126.09.scokilmarnockhamilton2.2£11.414.50-£10.001 226.09.spasevillavallecano1.58£5.522.50£14.263 227.09bellokerenbrugge1.9-£10.003.20-£10.000 127.09belanderlecht st truiden1.7-£10.002.64-£10.001 0-------------WEEKLYTOTAL -£28.33 -£43.87 -------------OVERALLTOTAL -£52.41 -£65.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Okay, so I've done a bit more detailed work with my past results (including the ones results from before I posted this system up here) and it's thrown up some surprises to me. I separated the results into the individual leagues, to see if certain leagues performed better than others. If you remember I stopped using the Dutch league a few weeks ago because I didn't think it was being profitable, turns out it was actually not the worst, and probably still worth having a look at in future. Serves me right for not doing this properly in the first place. Anyway, the results for each league so far are - BELGIUM = -£25.86ENGLAND = £59.31FRANCE = £28.81GERMANY = -£12.90HOLLAND = -£34.15ITALY = £59.62NORWAY = -£29.85SCOTLAND = £22.98SPAIN = -£111.23 (and no, that's NOT a typo!)SWEDEN = £71.59So, going forward, I'm only going to post up the selections on here from ENGLAND, FRANCE, ITALY, SCOTLAND and SWEDEN. I will continue to keep my own records of the others, and also of the leagues in DENMARK, AUSTRIA, ICELAND, SWITZERLAND and TURKEY to see how they perform. If any perform well over a period of time then I'll add them in, tho in looking at it it might be worth backing the U2.5 goals in spain lol. There's no midweek selections anyway due to european ties, so we'll see what the weekend throws up.Cheers! thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Selections for the weekend from the selected leagues03.10.engman city newcastle1.49£4.472.20£11.4103.10.engchelseasouthampton2£9.503.55£24.2503.10.scodundeemotherwell2.1£10.463.80£26.6303.10.scoheartskilmarnock1.77£7.322.90£18.0704.10.swegothenburghalmstads1.63£5.992.54£14.6504.10.swehelsingborgelfsborg1.74£7.042.86£17.6904.10.swekalmardjurgarden2.08£10.273.70£25.68 jtw1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Don't know why I was signed in as a guest, but that was me incase anyone hadn't figured lol jtw1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just an idea but have you considered using the past 5/6 league games overs record to try and eliminate teams that have been finding it hard to score THIS season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 I haven't no, but something I'll have a think about. Thanks for the suggestion mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 4, 2015 Author Share Posted October 4, 2015 Nice weekend for the o2.5s, changes to the system seem to have helped a bit. Not so good for o3.5 but that's a bit of a side project.03.10.engman city newcastle1.49£4.472.20£11.416 103.10.engchelseasouthampton2£9.503.55£24.251 303.10.scodundeemotherwell2.1£10.463.80-£10.002 103.10.scoheartskilmarnock1.77-£10.002.90-£10.001 104.10.swegothenburghalmstads1.63-£10.002.54-£10.001 104.10.swehelsingborgelfsborg1.74£7.042.86-£10.002 104.10.swekalmardjurgarden2.08£10.273.70-£10.000 3-------------WEEKLYTOTAL £21.74 -£14.34 -------------OVERALLTOTAL -£30.67 -£79.84 thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 This weekends selections........17.10.engtottenhamliverpool1.93£8.843.35£22.3517.10.engchelseavilla 1.72£6.852.82£17.3117.10.engwest bromsunderland2.44£13.694.60£33.2817.10.frabastiapsg1.9£8.563.40£22.8217.10.scomotherwellceltic1.68£6.472.70£16.1717.10.scohamiltondundee2.08£10.273.80£26.6317.10.scokilmarnockinverness2.1£10.464.00£28.5318.10.scodundee utdhearts1.85£8.083.15£20.4518.10.swehalmstadsaik1.8£7.613.05£19.5018.10.swehammarbyhelsingborgs1.74£7.042.76£16.74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Anyone of a nervous disposition, or a squeamish stomach, please look away now........... If anyone needs me I'll be in the bath with my toaster haha. Just glad I'm not backing this with actual money yet!17.10.engtottenhamliverpool1.93-£10.003.35-£10.000 017.10.engchelseavilla 1.72-£10.002.82-£10.002 017.10.engwest bromsunderland2.44-£10.004.60-£10.001 017.10.frabastiapsg1.9-£10.003.40-£10.000 217.10.scomotherwellceltic1.68-£10.002.70-£10.000 117.10.scohamiltondundee2.08-£10.003.80-£10.001 117.10.scokilmarnockinverness2.1-£10.004.00-£10.002 018.10.scodundee utdhearts1.85-£10.003.15-£10.000 118.10.swehalmstadsaik1.8-£10.003.05-£10.000 118.10.swehammarbyhelsingborgs1.74£7.042.76£16.741 4-------------WEEKLYTOTAL -£82.96 -£73.26 -------------OVERALLTOTAL -£113.63 -£153.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 One for tomorrow.....19.10.sweelfsborgnorrkoping1.65£6.182.60£15.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 Over 2.5 in on the 21st min, and over 3.5 before half time. If only they were all like that haha19.10.sweelfsborgnorrkoping1.65£6.182.60£15.223 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 (edited) Can't get much worse than last week, so hopefully a big improvement this weekend24.10.framontpellierbastia2.6£15.225.50£42.7924.10.scoheartsROSS CTY1.91£8.653.30£21.8725.10.scocelticdundee utd1.49£4.662.16£11.0325.10.itajuventusatalanta2£9.503.60£24.7325.10.engman utdman city1.94£8.943.35£22.35 Edited October 23, 2015 by only1woz Wrong dates for matches - fixed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 Another not brilliant week. Ho hum.....19.10.sweelfsborgnorrkoping1.65£6.182.60£15.223 224.10.framontpellierbastia2.6-£10.005.50-£10.002 024.10.scoheartsROSS CTY1.91-£10.003.30-£10.002 025.10.scocelticdundee utd1.49£4.662.16£11.035 025.10.itajuventusatalanta2-£10.003.60-£10.002 025.10.engman utdman city1.94-£10.003.35-£10.000 0--------------WEEKLYTOTAL -£29.16 -£13.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 Sorry nearly forgot.-------------OVERALLTOTAL -£142.79 -£166.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Next up, 2 selections from Italy. Just the place to get an overs system back on track lol 28.10.itamilanchievo2.28£12.174.40£32.3328.10.itaromaudinese1.76£7.232.96£18.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Weekends selections28.10.itamilanchievo2.28-£10.004.40-£10.0028.10.itaromaudinese1.76£7.232.96£18.6431.10.engnewcastlestoke2.24£11.794.00£28.5331.10.itainterroma2£9.503.50£23.7831.10.scocelticaberdeen1.77£7.322.96£18.6431.10.swehelsingborghacken1.59£5.612.48£14.07 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Not brilliant this week, but not as bad as last week lol28.10.itamilanchievo2.28-£10.004.40-£10.001 028.10.itaromaudinese1.76£7.232.96£18.643 131.10.engnewcastlestoke2.24-£10.004.00-£10.000 031.10.itainterroma2-£10.003.50-£10.001 031.10.scocelticaberdeen1.77£7.322.96£18.643 131.10.swehelsingborghacken1.59£5.612.48-£10.001 2------------WEEKLYTOTAL-----£9.84-----£2.72--- -------------OVERALLTOTAL-----£152.63-----£169.57--- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Might look at laying the draw in these matches. Would have a very hefty profit from laying the draw from these games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Okay, looking for a bit of advice on this chaps. As I mentioned, to lay the draw in these matches would have produced a good profit. From 90 selections, and to lay for a £10 stake (obviously risking more than that depending on the odds) then it would have produced roughly £170 profit, maybe a bit less as the odds I'm using are a rough estimate compared to what I usually use, but definitely a healthy profit compared to the -£152 that the over 2.5s is producing at the moment.My question is, I'm not calculating for the draw, so is this just a happy coincidence. I know 90 selections isn't a big sample size, but it's reasonable. I remember reading somewhere that the chance of a draw was heightened if there was fewer goals. Subsequently more goals means less chance of a draw so I'm wondering if that has anything to do with it?Any input/thoughts are appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Only 3 selections for this for the weekend07.11.engwest hameverton1.86£8.183.20£20.9208.11.itapalermochievo2.5£14.265.00£38.0408.11.itanapoliudinese1.63£5.992.54£14.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Okay, looking for a bit of advice on this chaps. As I mentioned, to lay the draw in these matches would have produced a good profit. From 90 selections, and to lay for a £10 stake (obviously risking more than that depending on the odds) then it would have produced roughly £170 profit, maybe a bit less as the odds I'm using are a rough estimate compared to what I usually use, but definitely a healthy profit compared to the -£152 that the over 2.5s is producing at the moment.My question is, I'm not calculating for the draw, so is this just a happy coincidence. I know 90 selections isn't a big sample size, but it's reasonable. I remember reading somewhere that the chance of a draw was heightened if there was fewer goals. Subsequently more goals means less chance of a draw so I'm wondering if that has anything to do with it?Any input/thoughts are appreciated Sounds feasable woz, it's certainly worth keeping a check on the results, some of the best inventions are discovered by accident. You could keep your draw system as a sideshow on this thread, in which case the mods would probably allow you to show the £170 profit straight away as the selections were all logged before the matches kicked off. Either way it will be interesting to see if you've struck gold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Thanks Bedlam. I'm keeping records of it on my own spreadsheet. The £170 is a rough estimate, but I've been keeping accurate records for the last 2 weeks and it would've been £45 profit for those 2 weeks. I'll keep recording it and keep you posted of how it's going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Poor week again for the overs, LTD would've only lost £7 so not nearly as bad. It may be time to call it quits on the overs soon but I will persevere with it for a little while longer.07.11.engwest hameverton1.86-£10.003.20-£10.001 108.11.itapalermochievo2.5-£10.005.00-£10.001 008.11.itanapoliudinese1.63-£10.002.54-£10.001 0------------WEEKLYTOTAL-----£30.00 -£30.00 -------------OVERALLTOTAL-----£182.63-----£199.57--- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 I don't half hate international weekends. Can't wait to get the club games back in action lol. I have taken the decision to change this thread, as with nearly £200 loss on both the o2.5 and o3.5 it appears that I may have just hit a purple patch in my profitable months last season. Maybe I've just hit the opposite in the last couple of months but the idea with testing these systems is to find something I'd eventually be comfortable putting my money on, and the big losses over the last few months have put paid to any sort of confidence that I'd be able to do that with the overs system. With that in mind, I'm going to start a new thread based on the same selections, but laying the draw instead. It seems (seems!) to be quite profitable so far, so I'll test it publicly on here and see how that goes. Back on thursday with the selections for the "new" system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 I have done some work tonight,and this ltd looks very promising. These are rough figures, using bet365 historical odds (found on flashscores) and taking into account that betfair draw odds will be a bit higher than bet365, but only Switzerland is in a loss, and even then it's only -£10.50. The others added up come to £622 profit! Not getting too carried away obviously because it could always go pear-shaped. I'll start my new thread from this weekend with a zero bank, but hoping for big things from it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Still waiting only1woz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 29, 2015 Author Share Posted November 29, 2015 Waiting on what bud? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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