BillyHills Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I don't know if many people on here are subscribers to Racing UK? (Some good deals knocking about for those who are not) Anyway i'm not here to promote Pay TV, just wondered if many had watched the 'betting lab' over the last month or so. Its a discussion about betting which takes place in between races at Kempton on Wednesday nights and i have quite enjoyed the series so far. Main topic seems to be about that favorite word of ours in betting land 'value'. Last night i watched the episode with Neil Channing as the guest and was interested to here his methods and thoughts about the industry. He obviously does most of his betting on the exchanges as he just wouldn't be able to get on with the normal bookies, especially as he likes EW betting. His point about there being more value at weekends when more 'mug' punters are active was also something i hadn't really thought about. I suppose its obvious when you think about it. Those normally at work in the week watch the Morning Line, listen to our Tanya telling everyone about Pricewise selections, the so called experts giving their selections and at about 9am the bookies get super busy and most of the money is for the same few horses and distorting the markets. In the week its only those who try to make a living at the game that are that keen so most of the liquidity is from punters who have done their homework and the markets will be more accurate and less errors by the bookies. Also the racing is a lot less competitive on a wet Monday afternoon compared to the Scoop 6 races! A couple of nuggets he gave us for those who cant watch the shows; Back the 3rd round leader of a golf tournament to win it outright; He says if its a nobody he will be massively underrated and expected to crumble under the pressure hence getting great value, if its someone such as McIlroy everyone will be trying back something at bigger prices and the real value is the best player in the tournament with a lead! He also said that in a Tennis match if a player was leading 2-0 and pulled back to 2-2 you should back him to go on and win the match despite the momentum being with the guy who has come from behind? Always better value. We have had many discussions about value and the experts reckon that since Betfair has taken over in setting out tissues and markets that the edge has been taken away from the average punter. You can still get a couple of quid on early the night before at decent prices but the liquidity is only healthy as the market sorts itself out and by the time your commission has been taken off there isn't much of an edge. With Bots and bookies being very active on the exchanges it make you wonder how you can make it pay unless you know something that isn't in the public domain. Everyone has so much information at hand for free and loads more if you want to pay for it. The consensus is that times have changed so much and where once punters were told to specialize and only bet one or two races a day it now seems that some of the big pro's bet in many races throughout the day and have a far bigger turnover but only making a smaller percentage on each bet. Some of the old books knocking about by Alan Potts, Nevison and others would no longer be applicable in todays climate and it seems that most of the professional punters have diversified into sports betting to make a decent living and interestingly some of the American sports. So has Racing had its day as far as consistent profitable betting is concerned (unless you are on the inside)? Links to the Betting Lab episodes; (will put up the latest one when its available) Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 How To make a Tissue Any thoughts on any of this? Betting Staking Value Tissues :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab I've watched them all but last night's was the most interesting Quite a character was Mr Channing.........I thought it was David Walliams at first......:lol He'd be a great regular guest on the Wednesday night show Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab I dont have the channel and was unaware of the programme (thanks for the links) will definitely take a look... .channing rings a bell......poker player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab Yeah Dan, Channing is (was) a poker player but has always been into sports betting like Tony Bloom if you remember him from the poker scene. Very big hitter in the NFL these days apparently? Bloom was also involved with Harry Findlay and later became Brighton chairman. Not sure you can watch the videos if your not a subscriber, may find them elsewhere? Trotter, Channing was very popular when Poker got big on TV in this country a few years ago, he often commentated on big tournaments and cashed in quite heavily along with the Hendon mob when it first began. I have absolutely no idea how they continue to get their money on though nowadays, even i got banned from Stan James and it was a small account, and before anyone says anything i have never backed a Pricewise horse in my life! Did you learn anything Trotter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab Did you learn anything Trotter? I hope it doesn't sound arrogant but not really........I've heard all this before or read it in books or on the forum Still it's interesting and it helps to be reminded of some things that you know but have slipped from the front of your mind For example I know that when I bet I'm betting against the accumulated wisdom of all the other punters betting on that race. But it was interesting to hear Channing's ideas on when to bet......Saturday being the best day because that's when all the 'mug money' is flying around. During the week you're betting against Pros.........because most fun punters don't bother if they're at work and can't watch it on telly. I suppose using that logic the Grand National is the best race to bet on ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab match if a player was leading 2-0 and pulled back to 2-2 you should back him to go on and win the match despite the momentum being with the guy who has come from behind? Always better value.>>> I noticed similar in snooker years ago. When a guy pulls back from way down to force a final frame, go against him. [Eg Ding, a couple of days ago lost 5-6 from 1-5 down.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab I think horse racing is struggling all round to be honest and not just from a betting point of view. Prize money is rubbish for owners, fields are very small most of the time, sometimes due to the ground but its true that the numbers are decreasing full stop. This leads to uncompetitive races and low betting turnover. On the betting front the program highlighted why fewer and fewer young people take up horse racing as a proper hobby. There are just too many variables to learn in horse racing for people to bother with these days, the form, novices or handicaps, flat or NH, different courses, grass or AW, fences or hurdles. You really need to be keen to want to understand everything and for what reward if all of the value has been squeezed, whereas something like Football is covered so much in the media and everywhere else that anyone can have an opinion as to whether United will beat City, or just predict a score. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab It will be an unpopular view i am sure but if racecourses were to have slots/on site casino that could fund the prize money then in my opinion that is better than the levy system would increse the prize pool and the quality of racing, that is in place in the states and their prize money is vastly superior to ours......altrrnatively it could suck the life out and kill it like it has the betting shop which is now tailored for fobts as we all know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab I believe there are many more people these days that are able to make a living through trading rather than outright win/place sports betting. Trading not only offers lower risk but there are endless opportunities to find an angle, although it can take away the enjoyment element. For me, however, I still subscribe to the romantic view of finding the winner. It worked well last year but the luck has not been there in 2014 so I may have to reconsider my choices next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab It will be an unpopular view i am sure but if racecourses were to have slots/on site casino that could fund the prize money then in my opinion that is better than the levy system would increse the prize pool and the quality of racing' date=' that is in place in the states and their prize money is vastly superior to ours......altrrnatively it could suck the life out and kill it like it has the betting shop which is now tailored for fobts as we all know[/quote'] I could actually imagine this happening when the new Ladbrokes guy takes over at the BHA. I don't think FOBT's are allowed on courses at the moment but that'll probably change and it would be nice to see a larger percentage of the profits from those that are on course pumped back into racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab I believe there are many more people these days that are able to make a living through trading rather than outright win/place sports betting. Trading not only offers lower risk but there are endless opportunities to find an angle' date=' although it can take away the enjoyment element. For me, however, I still subscribe to the romantic view of finding the winner. It worked well last year but the luck has not been there in 2014 so I may have to reconsider my choices next year.[/quote'] By trading do you mean betting in running Jay? I think its too risky unless you are professionally set up with the latest equipment and software. The delay to pictures and competing against bots etc makes this difficult unless you are prepared to win pennies for hours on end and then you have to ask yourself if its a living? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab Week 5 The latest episode (with Neil Channing) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab I agree, in running trading can be risky but there are traders who complete everything before the race. I think it's known as scalping. I personally know someone who makes a living this way and during the summer when there's lots of racing makes in excess of £8k a month on UK and AUS racing. He uses a bot but to my knowledge doesn't watch the races, just reacts to the exchanges. He's next to the computer for much of the day and has spreadsheets that fire off hundreds of bets a day, but having seen his account, staring at a computer screen for hours isn't the worst way to make a living! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab Seems like Week 4 is available for free so I managed to watch it and no surprise it was very interesting. Shame I'm not a Racing UK subscriber but maybe I'll be able to find the other episodes around sometime. Does anyone have any suggestions of any other videos or up to date books which talk about statistics in betting, value, tissues or staking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Re: The Betting Lab Week 6 last night featured a telephone interview with a Professor from the Institute of Betting Research at Loughborough University !..........honest !.........it wasn't a Monty Python sketch More interesting was the studio guest, Dave Nevison As we all probably know Dave fell out of love with betting because he felt that changes in the betting industry had made it impossible for a gambler to make a living. His thoughts on that were very interesting. Partly this was down to the betting market becoming much more accurate.......because of betfair and also new technology which enabled bookies to correlate betting from every shop and computer into one information set. Partly this was due to the mass availability of information to other punters. He quoted a couple of examples.........before the computer age an individual could research draw biases at tracks and get an edge. Now draw bias information is available to everyone. Similarly at one time speed figures were a novelty and anyone compiling had an advantage........now they're available to everyone in the paper every day His 'Bodugi' project went tits up Now he's working on researching some 200 ideas for 'systems' based on analysing past results.......he reckons this will probably take him another year after which he might have a few angles which could be profitable. He's looking for angles which are not yet in the public domain although as he said you only get a limited time with any angle until it becomes widely known and factored into the price. By the way DN stayed in the studio and they carried on for half an hour after the Betting Lab officially ended Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Re: The Betting Lab Have a few questions for those who make or have made tissues in the past. This punting advice thread here is also a great read for any newer users as there's some good discussion on the concept of value and betting tissues. Would you have to have an edge of say 5% on the best odds available before placing a bet? Does the market affect your bets? If a horse drifts out giving you a bigger edge would you place a bigger bet? Or would a big drift put you off backing a horse even if it is value in your book? Do you bet each way, win only or both? On a more general note does anyone feel that horses well beaten in maiden and novice hurdles can be massively overpriced next time out? I don't have any data to back this up and I know making a tissue for these races can be very difficult but it's something I may look at over the coming months. Any answers or other tips on betting tissues would be greatly appreciated. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Re: The Betting Lab The Betting Lab retuned last night for another 4 week run The guest was an American, Steve Gottfrend ?, and the topic was US v UK betting markets and how to play Exotics Quite interesting as I've never considered 'exotics' and perms The gist was that it's unlikely ever to take off in the UK because the betting pools are so small being divided between each booker, exchange, Tote........there are so many unconnected betting pools that each one is too small and has no liquidity Steve was quite a fan of the multi-race exotics that we do have like the Jackpot, Placepot and Scoop 6 but he thought they could be massively hyped up and marketed. And the unit stake for the Scoop 6 should be lowered to tempt regular daily punters rather than syndicates. He also said there were strategies involved in perming selections that most people just ignore leaving a gap in the market for 'smart' punters to exploit Steve mainly concentrates on Poker these days and pointed out that the top Poker players become International Celebrities like sporting champions whereas nobody knows who the top horse race punters are. Willougb explained that in the UK the top punters have to keep quiet or they get their accounts closed.........they don't want to be famous, they want to be anonymous. Steve said that this shouldn't be the case in the US with pool betting........and he's started up a company to run internet punting competitions to produce horse race betting celebrities (basically he was on the show to plug his company........that's life !.........:lol ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Re: The Betting Lab Have a few questions for those who make or have made tissues in the past. This punting advice thread here is also a great read for any newer users as there's some good discussion on the concept of value and betting tissues. Would you have to have an edge of say 5% on the best odds available before placing a bet? Does the market affect your bets? If a horse drifts out giving you a bigger edge would you place a bigger bet? Or would a big drift put you off backing a horse even if it is value in your book? Do you bet each way, win only or both? On a more general note does anyone feel that horses well beaten in maiden and novice hurdles can be massively overpriced next time out? I don't have any data to back this up and I know making a tissue for these races can be very difficult but it's something I may look at over the coming months. Any answers or other tips on betting tissues would be greatly appreciated. :ok Sorry, only just seen this; Found these old threads, worth a look for some that are interested in all things value and tissues. http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/96069-Dave-Nevison-disillusioned-value-punter?highlight=tissues http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/153637-Creating-my-own-odds?highlight=tissues http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/106899-Each-way-betting?highlight=tissues http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/140586-Where-s-my-profit-gone?highlight=tissues http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/133355-What-do-you-do-if-you-miss-the-price?highlight=tissues http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/118775-Tissue-Practice?highlight=tissues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Re: The Betting Lab Cheers BH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.