BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014

[calculus]

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[calculus]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 5:35 Goodwood - Heartsong (7/1 SkyBet) 1pt Win I’m genuinely very surprised at the price of this one in the betting, while it was by no means a great race that he won last time out at Doncaster it was the manner in which he did it that marked him down as a potentially very well handicapped horse for me. With a quarter of a mile to run he looked to be travelling much better than anything else but he was blocked off when making his challenge on two occasions and must have lost at the very least two lengths as a result. When blocked off on the second occasion there was only around half a furlong left to run and if you had backed him you would have been cursing your luck, however he was switched round horses and flew home to win by half a length; for me that was a seriously impressive performance. It is also worth noting that my selection was running off a mark of 84 this time last year and he is now rated a whole 16lbs lower than that, so he has to be potentially very well handicapped. A good bit of that drop in the weights came on the back of a fruitless spell on the AW over the winter, a surface he has never won on, and he then won on his first run back on turf. When you add into the mix that the Gallagher yard look to be hitting form with 2 wins and 2 places from their last 4 runners his chances look far better than that of a 7/1 shot. The favourite, Perfect Muse, looks way too short for me, as he has had a couple of similar opportunities since qualifying for handicaps and was beaten into second by quite exposed sorts on both of occasions, he has crept up the weights as a result and this is probably a bit tougher than the race he was second in last time out. In summary, I think my selection has outstanding claims and were it not for the fact that it is an apprentice race at Goodwood, where he will undoubtedly need some luck in running, I would have considered having a maximum bet on him.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 Wetherby 5:25 Rayadour must have a massive chance of completing the four timer, this is a really progressive horse that should enjoy the step up in trip and I don't think a 10 pound rise will be enough to stop the progress. He beat Wayne Manor by 5 lengths here at Wetherby last time out, in very eye-catching fashion and had plenty more in the tank too. Miss C Walton takes off a very handy 5 pounds here, she is a very capable rider and this horse should go off clear favourite. Rayadour WIN @ 11/2 Bet365

[Dund0n]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 4.15 Wetherby - Alderbrook Lad win @ sp For me this one should take this. He has been running very well over fences and has progressed to a 120 rated chaser picking up 4 wins and 5 further places. He was also very unlucky last time out and fell in a messy race and looked to be going well enough prior to the fall. He is tried over the smaller obstacles this time which should decrease the chance of falling. He has only run twice over hurdles in the past and disappointed but he is having another go and is without doubt a much improved horse.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 Goodwood 3.15 - Story Writer (1pts win, 6/1 William Hill) His overall record reads 1 win from 13 starts but then you look at the number of seconds which reads 8 that is a pretty high percentage but it does show this horse ultimately does have talent he's just not put it all in every time he races. A number of those seconds have been narrow defeats and his run last time out at here at the track was one of his better efforts I felt staying on well but as is his want narrowly beaten. He is undoubtedly a horse who needs his jockey to get things exactly right and he needs things to drop right. He's shown he can run well at the track and a repeat of his last run here would give him every chance.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 340 Wetherby: Gassin Golf 5/2 Betfred/Boyles Only 7 runners now for this handicap and Gassin Golf can open his account over hurdles after ten attempts. He's been place 7 times and in good company too and cant believe he's failed to pick up an ordinary novice event somewhere. I was Wetherby last year when the selection was third to Gone Too Far, another good effort. Since then he's been second in the Imperial Cup and second at the Punchestown Festival. Dubai Prince looks the chief threat but he would prefer a sounder surface and does throw the odd bad race in and not one to totally trust in my eyes.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 3.15 - Goodwood - New Youmzain 1pt win @ 16/1 Hills Wiling to forgive this horses latest run at Doncaster as it came on soft ground and only 11 days after a tough race at Pontefract. This horse won on his reappearance at Pontefract over 22f on his first start for Michael Appleby. He was made to battle that day but the front 2 pulled well clear of the 3rd horse with the rest of the field split by some pretty big margins. He is 6lbs higher for this tougher race but he has won from 77 in the past. He has been given plenty of time to get over his run at Doncaster and he could go well here with the track surely set to suit. Michael Appleby has 2 winners from 11 runners at the track but the yard isn't in the best of form so this is certainly not a confident selection.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 1625 goodwood 1pt win jordan princess 2/1 365 luca cumanis filly ran a good race last time only finding one too much to finish 2nd last time out, that was her first race for 201 days. and although she was well beaten, she led at the furlong pole but was soon outpaced,im hoping she has had the benefit for that race and is read to win again,she has won on soft ground and still has an oaks entry

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014

Wetherby 5:25 Rayadour must have a massive chance of completing the four timer, this is a really progressive horse that should enjoy the step up in trip and I don't think a 10 pound rise will be enough to stop the progress. He beat Wayne Manor by 5 lengths here at Wetherby last time out, in very eye-catching fashion and had plenty more in the tank too. Miss C Walton takes off a very handy 5 pounds here, she is a very capable rider and this horse should go off clear favourite. Rayadour WIN @ 11/2 Bet365

Non Runner BH.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 Clonmel 8:00 Sizing Scorpion runs here in this very poor handicap and I doubt connections thought they would see this horse running in this kind if race when they forked out €250,000 for the horse which is a huge price to fork out. Clearly, they must think a lot of the horse if they paid that amount and although they will never see the majority of that money again, if the horse has even a smidgen of the ability they think he has, he should be winning a race like this with ease. He has disappointed in all of his four runs to date but now hopping into handicap company for the first time he has to have a big chance off a mark of 88. Sizing Scorpion WIN @ 6/1 Paddy Power

[Rainbow]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 tullyraine 4.50 wetherby takes my eye today. the ground has softened a little, which will help, and the distance and recent horse form is fine. handicapper keeps him in off 124, which is 3lb higher than for his latest win, so with many others having more questions to answer, he should be more than capable of going close. 1 point win 7/1 betfred bog

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 7.50 Salisbury - Burnham win 2/1 bet365 Btn 1.75L on latest start over 1m2f in a decent time and runs off same mark today. Upped in trip to 1m6f and ran with credit on only run at trip when only btn 3/4L as a 3yo. 4lbs above last mark but has been competitive off it. Wasn't really impressed with times of Quarterjack or Ivanhoe Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 22nd May 2014 2 winners so far ; Santos 6/1 Dund0n 5/4 :clap 2 to run;

Clonmel 8:00 Sizing Scorpion runs here in this very poor handicap and I doubt connections thought they would see this horse running in this kind if race when they forked out €250,000 for the horse which is a huge price to fork out. Clearly, they must think a lot of the horse if they paid that amount and although they will never see the majority of that money again, if the horse has even a smidgen of the ability they think he has, he should be winning a race like this with ease. He has disappointed in all of his four runs to date but now hopping into handicap company for the first time he has to have a big chance off a mark of 88. Sizing Scorpion WIN @ 6/1 Paddy Power

7.50 Salisbury - Burnham win 2/1 bet365 Btn 1.75L on latest start over 1m2f in a decent time and runs off same mark today. Upped in trip to 1m6f and ran with credit on only run at trip when only btn 3/4L as a 3yo. 4lbs above last mark but has been competitive off it. Wasn't really impressed with times of Quarterjack or Ivanhoe Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk