Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 1 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Juventus v Benfica (20:05 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.86 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Valencia v Sevilla (20:05 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[ultravires]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st I can't speak about Benfica but I don't think Juventus are best prepared for this match. In all likelihood, 9 of Thursdays starting 11 started yesterday, and the other 2 players came on. Pirlo got a whopping 10 mins rest for Thursday and I think Conte's lack of regard for rotation could cause a slip up here. Benfica have shown enough for their progression to not be framed as a slip from Juventus to be honest, and I do not like the price on a home win. Benfica will certainly travel here with the aim of scoring at least once, and there is a strong chance they will need to. I am thinking along the lines of BTTS.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Benfica rested pretty much their whole team at the weekend and I read earlier in the week that Gaitan and Fejsa will be available for the second leg which is a huge boost for the away side. Despite making so many changes for the cup semi final away at Porto and going down to 10 men after 30 minutes they still managed to hold on and beat Porto in penalties which just shows the confidence they have in themselves. That's twice Benfica have beaten Porto with 10 men most of the game in the last few weeks and despite Jackson missing several good chances in the first half there just seems to be a certain belief in Benfica squad which makes them so hard to beat. In the first leg Benfica were fortunate to come away with the win as Juve took control of the second half with Pogba in particular drifting out to the touchline which caused the home side to become outnumbered out wide. Luisao and Garay mopped up everything in front of their own box but out wide Benfica struggled when the intensity dropped and in the end it was from the wide areas where Juve found their away goal. However, Benfica were extremely dangerous when they managed to isolate Juve's slow defence and because the home side have to push for a goal Benfica will likely get some great chances on the break. Getting a result in Turin is an extremely tough ask especially if Jesus sticks with his offensive 4-2-2-2 which Juve really exposed but with Vidal returning and a lead in their hands surely Benfica will go for a a more defensive 4-5-1 allowing a central player to cover the wide areas. I thought this in the first leg though and Jesus stuck with the 4-2-2-2. If Jesus makes the necessary changes I can see Benfica going through as Juventus haven't been all that convincing and are pretty predictable but if we don't see anything different I feel Vidal and Pogba will dominate the game from the wide areas with Juventus winning the tie in the process. It's a really tough game to call and I'll probably avoid betting here but when Benfica announce the squad for the game I'll take another look. I'll also keep an eye out for news in Portugal regarding Jesus' approach to the game which will will be crucial to the result of this semi final I think.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Also, Enzo might be out as UEFA might still apply him a ban due to a supposed hit in the face of Chiellini, in the first half. Without him, Benfica will be less likely do suceed. Thursday I'll say a bit more about this one, but I think Juventus will eventually scrape through this one.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st

Also, Enzo might be out as UEFA might still apply him a ban due to a supposed hit in the face of Chiellini, in the first half. Without him, Benfica will be less likely do suceed. Thursday I'll say a bit more about this one, but I think Juventus will eventually scrape through this one.

Enzo available as expected. Would have been ridiculous if he was banned for the incident with Chiellini and I don't know why Juve even bothered lodging a complaint. What are your thoughts regarding the team line up? Fejsa is out but Gaitan and amazingly Salvio are available after the latter broke his arm just two weeks ago. My guess is that Salvio will only be used if Benfica are behind and need a goal because even with his arm protected like Drogba's at the world cup there's some risk involved. Do you think Almeida should be brought into the midfield to add some physicality? Gaitan out wide or in a midfield three?

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Still need to confirm my thoughts with tomorrow's previews on the newspapers, but: 1 - No, I don't think Salvio will play even if 100%. Will only come on the 70' if Benfica trailing the semi-final tie. Too risky to place a player like him on this kind of matches, under such intensity. Might just worse the injury, so I can't see him play more than 20'. However, what if it goes to extra time? That could be quite worrying. Markovic will start up instead of him. 2 - Midfield is still a worry. Fesja is out, Ruben Amorim will play instead of him. Benfica will lose agressive composure on midfield, even though Ruben Amorim is much better offensively, that could be worrying. Andre Almeida will start on the bench, probably, just in case of an injury from Enzo Perez or Ruben Amorim Gaitan is fit but looks like not fully fit, so probably Sulejmani will come on at 70' to take over his spot. 3 - My probable starting line-up for Benfica is: Artur; Siqueira, Luisão, Garay, Maxi Pereira; Ruben Amorim, Enzo Perez; Gaitan, Markovic; Lima, Rodrigo

[anderson4eva]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st i wanted to ask for advice on this match would it be safe to place BTTS?

[MPLouis]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Odds of 6.6 on Benfica look tasty. Juve are very strong at home and Benfica are weaker away than at home, but semi-final games can have a life of their own and differ from the norm (as we've seen at Bayern and Chelsea this week). Over 2.5 at 2.0 might be value, I think.

[MPLouis]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st So thinking a bit more with the first leg score in mind ... First leg was Benfica 2 Juventus 1 This means Juventus would go through with a 1-0 win and I suppose makes unders more likely given Juventus' strong defence. A lot will depend on who scores first.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Can't see a team that is with bigger motvation than Benfica right now. They already won the championship, on Portugal Cup and League Cup finals, and could also get to an historic Europa League final to try to win all four competitions. Amazing! However, I feel that a qualification to the final will not be possible at all for the Lisbon side. I truly expect a very good match overall, with Juventus winning not only the game, but also the tie. Although Benfica's motivation is sky high after winning the championship and eliminating FC Porto on penalties with a "B" side on last week, I believe achieving the qualification against a fully motivated fan-boosted Juventus side will a task too difficult to handle. Especially if Vidal plays. Enzo Perez is an outstanding midfielder, probably the best Argentina midfield atm, but handling out Pirlo and Pogba away will be a very difficult task. Now imagine if Vidal plays as well, even if only 45 minutes as expected. Ruben Amorim is a solid midfielder, but low on stamina and could be physically destroyed. In the first leg, even if some Benfica fans say the opposite, Juventus midfield outclassed Benfica's. And I expect it to happen today. Then it will only be a matter of knowing how will Juventus defensive line handle Rodrigo and Lima on top-form, as Tevez upfront will surely score one if given enough space. By 75' minutes, Benfica will be physically destroyed by Juventus playing style. Atmosphere will be electric and also against Benfica. Even with such motivation, players will probably be very affected by it. As curiosity, in the Jorge Jesus era, when Benfica was eliminated in CL and EL ties, ALL of them were with Benfica playing first at home and then away. 09/10 = Liverpool (2-1 home 0-4 away), 10/11 = Braga (2-1 home 0-1 away), 11/12 = Chelsea (0-1 home 1-2 away). Last season they lost in the final, so it an exception. Also think that the ref could be enough biased for Juventus.Today, my money is on the Italians. However, I don't find any odd of particular interest. I do think we might see some goals in set pieces, maybe Pirlo, Chiellini or Luisão for Benfica could score. I see Juventus going through, but not without a goal from Benfica. BTTS @ 2.00 on some bookies, could be considered. But I'm going with two outsider bets, just for fun: Juventus 3-1 @ 13. Risky, but low stakes on that for me. The other outsider bet is Over 0.5 on 10' minutes @ 5.50. I believe the game can have 1 goal in the first 10 minutes, probably from Juve. They will want to score as fast as possible to deliver all the pressure to the hands of Benfica. They usually are quick starters at home, and Benfica, when they concede away, usually it is the starting minutes. Low stakes as well, but feel odds here could be 4.00.

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Two trappy games with a lot of variables to consider, makes them both difficult betting propositions. For interest more than anything else, Im going to back an over 2.5 goal double. Second legs are typically high scoring as it is an all or nothing game and with the away goals rule any goal can leave one team needing to go gung ho at any point. The over 2.5 goal double would return around 3.2 if succesful. Its a bet that should last 90 minutes. I'd be most worried about the Juve Benfica game but Benfica owe me after lazily spunking three one on ones in the last ten minutes in the last round to down an over 2.5 goal 8 timer I had on.

[anderson4eva]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st It shouldnt matter who scores first we all want an early goal in both matches so that will create the other teams to go gungho and open up nice bets for us all , GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

[KavkaZ]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Category: Football - Europa League 28 picks +53 units profit +37% yield Win-Loss-Void: 17-11-0 Win rate: 61% Stake avg.: 5.1 Odd avg.: 3.55 Staked: 144 Returned: 196.57 Valencia vs Sevilla In today's match Valencia seek a stunning comeback, the fans the team is united despite the bad league tournament due to the great illusion that generated the Europa League. After the defeat in the previous round against Basel , plotted to overturn a 0-3 and they got it , and now can rely on to repeat. Plus after unfair decisions against them by referee in Pizjuan (0-2) where Sevilla scored a goal from offside and showed a non-existing yellow to Valecia star , Paco Alcacer , who will be suspended for today. Big blow. Valencia are a team that generates many corners , was seen on the big comeback against the Swiss where the beginning of the 2nd half had 9 corners. Today I expect a similar game, Valencia looking for bands and meanwhile one enclosed waiting Sevilla to get counterattacks with speedy Bacca. In the spanish league Valencia has an average of 7.1 Corners at home and in 12 of their 18 games took 7 or more corners. Valencia in the first leg pulled five cornes. And in the league match at home v Sevilla, 8. Individual Corners Valencia Over 6.5 at 1.85 WilliamHill 8u ---------- I see value in this bet and I will explain why. Honestly I think Valencia before his public is obligated to make a good game and I think they need more to attack, but have to analyse each team playing. Sevilla is specialist to counterattack with playmaker Rakitic and fast wings like Vitolo and up strikers Bacca and Gameiro. In contrast, Valencia are playing something else, like to have the ball, players that love to touch the ball most fo time and passing. Sevilla they fall back and try to counterattack without risking the tie. In the spanish league Valencia avg 53.18 % of possession and despite Sevilla go much higher on the table they are just 47.4 %. Not going far , if for example we look at the last games, we see the following: * Valencia 0-1 Atletico Madrid. 59.13 to 40.87% * Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Sevilla. 60.19 to 39.81% As we see, this pick would have been green on both sides. Valencia Total Possession %: Over 57.5 at 1.70 Marathonbet 8u ---------- I think this match tends to be hot, if Sevilla scores, wich I give some real chances, frustration will get higher and higher among Valencia players. I can see the line Over 5.5 at Bet365 too short. The referee is suitable for this kind of encounter, saw his stats and the last games went ok for this selection. One direct red counts as two yellows, this is perfect. For exemple can see Valencia's Pereira (right defender) booked, mainly because Valencia have to play only to attack and he might make some tactical fouls to cover Feghouli, who doesnt defend well on that side. 2.7 for a card Over 5.5 yellow cards at 1.85 Bet365 7u ------- Not much faith in here, but can see a bit of value. May Sevilla not getting too many corners or freekicks close the area for crossing, but Fazio is a real danger for a maybe distracted Valencia side, focused on attacks mainly. Unai Emery is a great coach, on this kind of actions, all balls fly to Fazio, search him, and we could notice it in the first match. Goalscorer anytime / Fazio (Valencia) at 13.0 Bet365 1u

[KavkaZ]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Juventus vs Benfica Juventus stats at home: 10.04.2014 22:05 Juve - Lyon 7-0 13.03.2014 23:05 Juve - Fiorentina 2-2 20.02.2014 20:00 Juve - Trabzonspor 3-3 27.11.2013 21:45 Juve - Copenhaga 4-0 05.11.2013 21:45 Juve - Real Madrid 1-1 02.10.2013 21:45 Juve - GSaray 3-0 Benfica stats away: 03.04.2014 22:05 AZ - Benfica 6-1 13.03.2014 23:05 Tottenham - Benfica 7-4 27.11.2013 21:45 Anderlecht - Benfica 7-0 05.11.2013 21:45 Olympiakos - Benfica 3-0 02.10.2013 21:45 PSG - Benfica 1-1 Definetly, looking at Juventus, they were caught offside 20 times in 6 games. But, our selection mainly on Benfica side, a very good one who play on the offside most of time, been watching them in the past 2-3 years, and most of time the opponents wins more offsides. 24.04.2014 22:05 Benfica 2 - 1 Juventus 0-6 offsides Juventus will try to gain control of the ball in which Benfica will feel comfortable to give possesion and trying to act on the counter. Maybe the best bet for this encounter. High stake! I believe it is too short the line bookies set for this second leg. Total Over 4.5 offsides at 1.75 Unibet 10u ------------- I think a very disproportionate share for scoring goal Arturo Vida, he is a midfielder who already has 20 goals this season. Besides this and what gives it much more value to the bet is pulling his team penalties and in these games and the stakes can whistle one penalty Mr. referee without any problem. A good opportunity to enter with Arturo anytime goalscorer, seeing Juve estimated to score 2 goals and that may well be the one of the players who scores. I think Vidal is the engine of this Juve , not only defending and biting in midfield, but gets in attack too, is the player with the most goals in European competition, in the first leg he was not and his absence was noticed, I hope now he makes the difference. Goalscorer anytime / Vidal (Juve) at 5.0 Interwetten 4u Tevez is always there. That is fine, fine now, and has even broken that annoying spell that made him go zero goals,in European competition since 2009. One of the reasons for the poor display Manchester City had in Europe. Tevez scored in Lisbon and has been so valuable for his team. Carlitos is the man whom cling the Bianconeri, and opponents to overturn the result when the match goes hard. Goalscorer anytime / Tevez (Juve) at 2.3 Interwetten 3u -------- Let's get to the card market, can see central defender Luisao (Benfica) getting one, he already had one designed for the first leg but the referee forgived his mistake. Llorente play today and that will make Luisao have a major aerial battle. Luisao hits with elbows for the plays, sometimes gets late. In my opinion is a player who can get card very easily and for that price have to try it. Luisao (Benfica) get a card at 4.0 Unibet 4u

[senk]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Benfica faught like lions wow, this team is really really in top shape. Juventus deserved the win ofcourse but Benfica closed them down pretty well.. Valencia almost made it, what a game was that again! :-) They are great in their own stadium though so unlucky Sevilla scored that late goal. Anyways, Benfica made it to the finals again but they will be heavily weakened. Garay will make it but Salvio, Perez and Markovic will be suspended for the final. Blows if you ask me! Maybe Sevilla can do this, odds will be great for sure!

[MPLouis]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st

Valencia made it' date=' what a game was that again! :-)[/quote'] Sevilla qualified mate :ok

[senk]

Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Yeah lol, was watching Benfica game didnt even saw that 95th minute goal by sevilla. Changed it ;-)