MLS 2014 (USA/Canada)

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) A key factor to consider in this round of fixtures is circadian rhythms. There are 3 games in which I believe all away sides will face a significant disadvantage tonight. The Seattle, Portland and Chivas matches are set to kick off between 7-8pm Pacific time which are fairly normal start times for evening affairs. But all visiting teams in these fixtures are from the east coast so it will ‘mentally feel’ much later to them. DC United for example could be kicking off close to 10:45pm eastern time. Their natural body clocks will be absolutely fucked IMO, especially in the 2nd half. Obviously a lot depends how each team prepares, but there’s no doubt in my mind its a major factor to consider. As it happens, I actually really fancy Seattle and Chivas anyway and I would bet them irrelevant of the circadian rhythm factor. Lets start with the Seattle match. Well, they have obviously looked very good to me recently, winning their last 3 matches, and in the previous round they were virtually unplayable vs Colorado. The period of play just after HT was utter domination, they only won 4-1 but it couldve ended something like 6 or 7, that’s how good Seattle were. I just don’t see how Philly will be able to match them here. They are just a below average hard working unit who lack that bit of extra quality. They’ve won just 1 match all season and their fixture list has actually been relatively tame IMO. This will easily be their toughest game of the season so far and Seattle -1 (asian) @ 2.20 looks a really big price to me. I can’t see this price lasting as the day progresses. Regarding Chivas - Houston. I just don’t see how Chivas can be an underdog with the bookies here? I actually think Chivas are one of the most underrated teams in the MLS. Everyone just thinks because their statistical results are poor, they are just as shit as they were last season. In actual fact, Chivas have played some very nice football this campaign and been pretty unlucky in a number of matches. Also, Chivas have battled against a lot of good teams so its understandable why they’ve only won a single match. I would say this is their easiest match on paper since their opening day victory against Chicago. IMO Houston are a really poor team at the moment and just aren't firing. They’ve been burnt out by a number of recent away fixtures and now again they are forced to travel on the road. Both teams do miss a few players to injury and suspension so there’s maybe a couple of doubts in that department. But taking Chivas on a level ball 0 asian handicap @2.08 looks a really nice play to me, and at great odds! The Portland game I’ve not actually bet on yet because the hosts are a poor price. There's no doubt in my mind that Portland are one of the most overrated teams in the MLS. They are winless, not kept a single clean sheet in any match and their general standard of play has been miles below par. The only recent crumb of comfort has been improved displays at RSL and Houston. DC United are surprisingly unbeaten in 5 games but its worth noting that 4 of those fixtures have come at home. This will be a much tougher affair travelling all the way across the country, and as aforementioned, the start time will be close to 10:45pm eastern! Most of the team will probably be falling asleep in the 2nd half and this is a great chance for Portland to win. Despite having not impressed me much this year, I’d be pretty surprised if they didn't pick up 3 points tonight. This is a MUST win affair for them following their nightmare start to the season. I’m 80% sure I will bet on them eventually, but current odds are poor so I’m willing to wait out hoping for a better price as the day progresses. Something like 2.0+ on a -0.75 line would be a nice price to obtain on them, but currently that line is priced around the 1.80 mark. For now, I'm holding fire, but hoping to pull the trigger at some point before kick off. Elsewhere on Saturday, I find the Toronto and Vancouver games really hard to call. Both are capable of going either way IMO. I quite like RSL and LA Galaxy in their respective matches, but on current prices I don’t like them enough to consider a bet. Good luck everyone!

[leventbay]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) i watched san jose-chivas game 90 minutes, i totally agree with your preview about it, i was also thinking to bet on Home Win, Good Luck.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) It's a cool, windy and rainy day here in Toronto. I'm expecting another ugly scrappy game and I don't think it's wise to bet TFC at the current odds. Yes Defoe, Bradley and a few others are likely going to be back but given the conditions, I think NE could easily nick one or two. I like Meatman's picks and I'm also considering a -1 ah on the galaxy. Only thing that concerns me is the altitude. However, galaxy has far more quality and they will be motivated to put points on the board with their games in hand. I also think colorado has been punching above their weight until last weeks big loss. I think they will continue to slide a bit.

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Seattle 2-1 Phily Chivas 1-4 Houston Portland 3-2 DC United It was a shame Seattle could only win by 1 goal because they totally dominated and had chances galore. Still, they came from 0-1 down and were losing at HT, so it's a real bonus to have a 2nd half turnaround. For those who were patient, Portland actually became available @ around 1.95 on a -0.5 line, so eventually drifted quite a lot. They took the points thanks to a goal scored with virtually the last kick of the match. I was very relieved to see this one go in! As for Chivas, well they were complete shyte. In fact, they weren't even that good. It was an abysmal display and I totally called this mach wrong. I've no idea what happened. It was like the Chivas of old and it looked as if Houston had a rocket put up their asses ahead of the game - they were really up for it. Houston are one of those teams I can never seem to call correctly. Weird side.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Although it's not an MLS game, it's between two MLS teams so I'm going to write about it here. TFC host Vancouver in the first leg of the Canadian Championship semi final. Vancouver didn't travel with a full squad and have confirmed they are resting their two CB's and #1 goalie. A 17 year old is getting the start in net and the coach also confirmed a few more youths will get a run out. With a league game this weekend, they won't field anything close to their top 11. Tfc on the other hand have a bye this weekend so they don't have to worry about resting anyone. They are also playing at home and have a lot of pressure to start winning again after a couple bad league losses. Julio Cesar will be rested and joe bendik will start in goal. I don't view this as too significant because joe was out starting keeper last year and was one of very few bright spots on the team. Only injury concerns are Osorio and Orr but these aren't make or break players. I fully expect all 3 of TFCs designated players to start (Defoe, Bradley, Gilberto). The he way this cup seems to work (based on the last couple of years) is that you start a strong team at home and try and build up a big enough lead to only send the reserves to the away leg. I fully expect this to be TFCs approach and I expect they won't settle for less than a 2 goal lead. When I threw down before typing TFC -1 ah was 3.00 at b365. It's now dropped to 2.6 and I imagine it might continue to slide a little. -1 ah half time was 6.1 but has now dropped to 5.5. Might still be worth consideration. The other semi final between Edmonton and Montreal is tonight as well. I'm not as confident about this one but Montreal might be worth a shout. Edmonton plays in a lower division and they have started the season poorly. They have also played 6 games in the last 19 days or something close to that. My only doubt is what type of team Montreal will field away. They have a game Saturday so it might be a mix of youth and experience. I still feel like Montreal can get a result but this might be better to wait for team news.

[deadeye]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) ^ I wonder what the price is for Henry to give up a penalty lol. I'll add that caps youngsters are quite good, but overall not a good away team. Expect lots of pace in the Vancouver lineup.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Really pathetic performance from TFC. On paper they should have won by at least 3 given it was mostly their A squad vs. Vancouver's C squad. Vancouvers inexperience really showed but TFC were so bad they couldn't take advantage. I guess it wasn't totally surprising and hence I went for the coverage at -1.

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) This is a couple of days in advance, but an early bet I really like for midweek is SKC -1 (asian) @1.86. There's no doubt that KC are one of the best teams in the MLS, some would even argue they are the best, or at least certainly playing the best current football out of anyone. There are a number of teams like Seattle and RSL who have looked good offensively recently, SKC have also scored their fair share of goals. But what the defending champions have which others don't is a rock solid water-tight defence. They've only conceded 6 times this season which is the best record out of anyone except LA Galaxy. What really impresses me with this team is their ability to restrict opposition chances, they are incredibly difficult to penetrate. This match against Philly should be one way traffic. The Union look awful at the moment and are in the middle of a horrible winless run. Its been over 4 games since one of their own players scored, they couldn't even get a goal facing DC United at home on Saturday! It's true Philly have yet to lose any game by more than a one goal margin this season, but its obvious to me that they're gonna be on the back of a blowout defeat very soon. It's difficult to imagine them picking up anything here. At very least SKC should win outright, but I think it'll end up as a comfortable 2-0 or 3-0 success. It's very generous that the current asian line available is -1. I cannot see this line lasting much longer and by the time this match kicks off I'd expect it to be -1.25 or even -1.5. Definitely a bet I'm willing to snap up early with relatively high stakes. For those interested, the SKC duo selected for the US National team at the WC (Besler & Zusi) won't be leaving them until AFTER this match.

[deadeye]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Back Vancouver in the Canadian championships. No real reasoning for this one other than TFC is playing awful at the moment and Vancouver is playing superb, I have a feeling this is the way things are going to be looking for both clubs for some time now, Carl Robinson has been very impressive, Ryan Nelsen, not so much. Odds of 1.8 for a Vancouver are giving too much credit for TFC. Don't look too much at the whole 3 games in a week thing as Vancouver has a ton of depth. Also if anyone can find a bookie that has odds to win the tournament please let me know. You might want to wait for the lineups to come out though. I think Robinson will go with a few young Canadian players again but not to the extent of the game in Toronto.

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) @deadeye, how do you think Montreal will get on in their 2nd leg? Must win match for them surely considering recent circumstances. You feel they need to put all of their eggs into this basket for now. I was thinking of backing them -1 asian. Realistically, despite recent poor form and injuries, they should have too much for Edmonton at home

[deadeye]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Yes Montreal should win. I don't trust their defense at all though. The 17 year old Boaki on Edmonton is really good too and this is a big stage for him as well, he was easily the best player last game, and I would say Montreal was outplayed by Edmonton, I don't really know much about Edmonton though. You're probably right. Another thing though is Edmonton usually plays in front of like 3000 people or something so for them this is a huge game as well, and it's on national television, it's probably one of their biggest games of the season, and they seem to have somewhat decent talent for NASL and a good coach. I feel like this is one of those weird cup games where Edmonton could pull out a result or something, but I think Montreal is going to really step up to avoid embarrassment. Overall personally I am just not super confident about Montreal at the moment, this game just has a sense of unpredictability about it for me, but it's I think it's as safe as most bets to take the -1 asian, if Montreal don't win it would be a disaster for them, so I think they win but Edmonton doesn't make it easy. The fact that you like this bet makes me think it's better than I had first though. What I just wrote is what I thought prior to seeing your post, just so that it would be unbiased. So basically I don't know, I think if Bernadello is playing for the Impact though it would make a huge difference, I'm not sure if he is though. I'm pretty sure Di Vaio won't be playing though he has a hamstring injury.

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Cheers for your thoughts Deadeye. I've got to say I don't know much about Edmonton but I've heard they are pretty shit. I personally just think this is a must win game for Montreal, it really would be an absolute embarrassment should they fail. As of yet no asian lines have been offered anywhere for either of the two Canadian Championship games tonight. Hopefully a decent -1 will be come available on Montreal. Like you said though, it's probably best to wait until the line-ups are out before you commit any money though. I guess there is a chance both Vancouver and Montreal could line up weaker than expected, not sure.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I expect Montreal to do the business (for the same reasons Meatman has suggested) but my only concern is Edmonton parks the bus and tries to hit on the counter. Boaki for Edmonton is dangerous so they have a chance but Montreal is under a lot of pressure and I think they'll go for a blow out and use this game as a turning point. last year Toronto went to Montreal up 2-0 from the first leg and got blown out 6-0. I also think the Vancouver Toronto game is a toss up until the squads are released. Vancouver confirmed the young goalie is starting and they'll likely go with more youths again. I expect it'll be a better mix of reserves and 1st team this time. If TFC play their first team then I expect it'll be a close game. If TFC tries to mix 1st and reserves then Vancouver should win as their depth is better.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Leaning towards Vancouver after seeing the line ups. Morales, manneh, and hurtado should have too much for TFC's back line. Hagglund has shown well but he's fresh out of university with little experience. Morgan is error prone and despite all his potential, Henry is always good for giving up penalties or drawing cards. Will be cheering TFC though. Hoping Gilberto finally breaks the ice and gains some confidence.

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Managed to get on Montreal -1.25 and they saved me thanks to a late penalty winner. From 3-0 up the match looked over but somehow Edmonton pulled it back to 3-2. Also managed to take a bit of Vancouver when they were 0-1 down which was a nice bonus Unfortunately ran into a shocker in KC though. Philly pulled out their best performance of the season from nowhere and deserved this result. I have no logical explanation how they were able to suddenly play so well. Seriously, this team looked completely cooked after losing against DCU at the weekend. Inexplicable why SKC were below their usual standards or why the visitors raised their level. If anyone predicted Phully to come and win then well done, because there's no way in a million years I could've seen that happening.

[deadeye]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) TFC get a garbage offside goal while fouling the GK of vancouver 4 minutes in, and then park the bus for almost the entire match, Nelsen's strategies at their finest. Good thing you can always count on Henry to give up a ridiculous penalty,(slide tackles the guy from behind while the ball is in the air) He was also lucky not to get a second yellow card on a few occasions. Anyways, Vancouver won 2-1 and then lost on penalties, but the bet won, so it's all good. Never saw that coming with philly and kc. Maurice Edu was out for philladelphia, my guess is SKC were maybe a little too cocky and distracted going in the game, and philladelphia surprised them. Ghostcall handball pk to advance montreal to the next round in the 6th minute of injury time, glad you won meat man but honestly, that was the worst call at the worst time I have ever seen, feel kind of bad for Edmonton, that was the biggest game in franchise history. Crazy stuff anyway, now a weird time is coming up in the MLS as players will be away for the WC.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I was able to get evens for both MTL-MTL and Vancouver DNB after the TFC goal. Both bets came in and my team still advanced. Was a good night. I agree with deadeye, next few weeks are going to be tricky with World Cup players leaving but it might also present some good opportunities. I'll keep posting if I see anything decent.

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada)

TFC get a garbage offside goal while fouling the GK of vancouver 4 minutes in, and then park the bus for almost the entire match, Nelsen's strategies at their finest. Good thing you can always count on Henry to give up a ridiculous penalty,(slide tackles the guy from behind while the ball is in the air) He was also lucky not to get a second yellow card on a few occasions. Anyways, Vancouver won 2-1 and then lost on penalties, but the bet won, so it's all good. Never saw that coming with philly and kc. Maurice Edu was out for philladelphia, my guess is SKC were maybe a little too cocky and distracted going in the game, and philladelphia surprised them. Ghostcall handball pk to advance montreal to the next round in the 6th minute of injury time, glad you won meat man but honestly, that was the worst call at the worst time I have ever seen, feel kind of bad for Edmonton, that was the biggest game in franchise history. Crazy stuff anyway, now a weird time is coming up in the MLS as players will be away for the WC.

Incredibly lucky late penalty kick for me, gotta admit. But I actually felt I deserved the win overall. Edmonton were appallingly bad for 60 mins. I have no idea how they managed to get back into the game!

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Some attractive odds for TFC against SKC this Friday night. TFC are heavy dogs right now which normally wouldn't be too crazy but SKC is in a bit of a defender crisis at the moment. They had to start a teenager in their last game and he ended up getting suspended so they are now looking even further down the depth chart. Collin one of their starters is in a fitness race but even if he's back he likely won't be 100%. With Defoe, TFCs offense is always going to be able to pot a goal or two. They'll have some midfielders (Osorio, Jackson and Bradley) out but I think they are still more than capable to make a game of it and maybe even win. I'll be looking at handicaps (-0.75 for TFC at low stakes, an probably 0.25) tFC to score (1st or 2nd half. Maybe both) and anytime goal scorer markets (Defoe). Anyway, might be worth some looks so I figured I'd highlight it early as I expect odds to drop a bit.

[meatman]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Agree. I've backed TFC +0.75 tonight. This is a crazy price considering SKC's defensive absences. They are seriously down to the bare bones and Defoe could kill them. For those who like anytime scorer bets, then smash into him tonight, it's difficult to see him not netting. I think TFC will win outright but prefer to take the safer handicap bet.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Well that wasn't pretty but the result came in as expected. In retrospect, Both teams to score would have been the best bet given all the absences.

[deadeye]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Henry gave up another penalty kick today, ridiculous, if any bookie carried that line, it would have to have odds much lower than evens for henry to do it again. Anyway nice tip guys.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Haha yeah I think that's three penalties in his last three games. A walking disaster at the moment.

[UnitedForever]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Kansas City v New York Over 2,5 goals @4/5 Bet365 Both teams to score @4/6 Bet365 Kansas City will be missing quite a few defensive players tonight so I really like the 'overs' in this one. Last two games at home for Kansas finished 2-2 ~ 1-2 and the last game between these two in Kansas finished 2-3. I expect an open game with at least 3 goals in it.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Alright I'll try and resurrect this thread from the dead. Two games I like tonight are TFC over DC and Vancouver over Seattle. I'm more confident in Vancouver. They should have pretty close to a first choice line up while Seattle has lots of selection issues. The two starting centre mids are suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Dempsey and Yedlin are just getting back from the World Cup and the coach hinted that he thinks they need more time to rest. With 4 influential first choice players missing, I think Vancouver should win comfortably at home. They are coming off some poor results so I think they'll be eager to turn that around. Straight win is not bad at 2.1 (b365) but I expect a win by a couple so I'm going -1 ah @ 3.1. As for TFC, I like how they've been playing lately. Defence has been rather solid and they are creating more chances than the beginning of the season. I think DC is an average team and they be missing their most influential forward, Espindola. TFC already beat them at home this season and if expect them to do it again. Once again I'm being a little greedy and going with -1 ah @ 2.75 because I think defoe can really capatilize on a slower cb pairing. Im im going low stakes on a parlay of the two above. I've also done a very low stakes -1 ah halftime parlay of the two games above as I think both home teams will come out of the gate looking for an early lead.

[malabgd]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Montreal Impact v Sporting Kansas City Montreal Impact: Adrian Lopez (0/0 d), Eric Miller (10/0 d), Sanna Nyassi (4/1 m) Sporting Kansas City: Peterson Joseph (0/0 m), Ike Opara (3/0 d), Chance Myers (7/0 d), Eric Kronberg (17/0 first goalkeeper), Paulo Nagamura (14/1 m, doubtful) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Like Toronto and Vancouver again tonight. Both are playoff contenders facing lower table quality teams. Houston has had lots of problems with a depleted squad. They are likely getting a bunch of defenders back but even if they are named to the starting 11, it will take a bit to get back in game shape. As long as toronto don't tinker with their formation like they did the first half of last game, I think they can out score Houston by a goal or two. Van city is always a threat with their pace. Chivas have been doing well given where they were last year but I think Torres goal streak is going to dry up soon and they'll have a hard time getting results. Once again I see Vancouver by a couple goals.

[malabgd]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Columbus Crew v Montreal Impact Columbus Crew: Ben Sweat (0/0 d), Agustin Viana (4/1 m) (both doubtful), Hector Jimenez (15/1 m), Fifi Baiden (1/0 m), Matt Wiet (0/0 d), Josh Williams (14/0 d), Jairo Arrieta (16/3 f), Wil Trapp (15/0 m) Montreal Impact: Adrian Lopez (0/0 d), Eric Miller (10/0 d), Sanna Nyassi (4/1 m) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) There's a few match ups I like this week: Although they are playing away, I'm going to play Montreal +0.5 AH @ 2.05 (B365). Both teams last game was a loss to SKC 2-1 with a late goal. Columbus however played as early as last Wednesday so Montreal might be fresher. Will Trapp also picked up a red card in Columbus match and Arrieta was withdrawn due to injury so they both sit out of this one. Montreal's line up looks capable of grinding out a result and in my opinion maybe even win. For similar reasons, I like Chicago -1 AH @ 2.65. Both teams have been doing okay as of late but Philly played mid week and Chicago might be fresher. Some of Philly's in form players are older guys like Connor Casey so I think they will be a little off. They also have an interm coach tinkering with new line ups which might work against them. Chicago has been unlucky to tie so often and I think Mike Magee will start hitting his MVP stride soon and they'll start picking up the results. And again, Dallas-1 AH @ 2.65 because New England played mid week. Also NE's form has been terrible lately and Soares picked up a red card last game and is unavailable. Dallas haven't played in 10 days i believe so they should have had plenty of time to figure out a winning game plan here. Not sure what to make of the Toronto game. Originally wanted to get some juicy odds on the away win but now we are missing two starting defenders (Bloom, Caldwell) and Jackson in the midfield who often did a lot of good defensive work. I think both teams to score is likely but they priced it up right and it's not appealing to me.

[Stressy]

Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I like 3 matches tomorrow: i went for vancouver -1 ah @3.2 (b365) over chivas. Although the last meeting was a chivas 3-1 win (2 goals came late after Vancouver red card), chivas have been on a slide and lost their last four. 3 of which were by more than 1 goal. Vancouver is coming off a 2-0 win over a strong Kansas City and Pedro morales is playing very well and creating a lot of chances for their young forwards. I expect chivas to continue to slide and Vancouver to go all out for points to climb up the table and solidify a play off position. FWIW - the entire Mlssoccer.com staff picked Vancouver victory. I went for la galaxy -1 ah @3.55 (b365) over Columbus. Galaxy are on a good run and have picked up a lot of points recently. With Keane, Donovan, and the on fire Zardes, they have lots of fire power to bag goals. Columbus on the other hand are coming off a 2-3 home loss to Toronto. In my opinion they didn't look very good and to give up 3 goals at home shows some fraility in their defensive approach. Both teams will be desperate for points but I like galaxy here by a couple of goals. FWIW - All but 1 of the mlssoccer.com staff picked galaxy win. Laslty I went with the homer pick with toronto fc dnb @3.5 against KC. TFC were pretty unlucky not to beat KC at home in July. They wasted many clear goal scoring opportunities and KC capitalized on their only two chances. Earlier in the season, TFC got the late goal away for a 2-2 draw. Both teams to score at 1.8 also looks decent value given it's happened in both previous matches this season. TFC could welcome back defoe for this game but I think he'll be a second half sub at best. However Gilberto and Moore have done really well the last couple of weeks so I think toronto will threaten offensively regardless. KC also has to play their young 3rd string keeper due to injuries. Toronto has a few defenders out (but they were out the last 3 games where they won 2) and there were rumours of a slight bug going through the team but I still think they will make a game of it and the odds are too high not to have a crack at it with some coverage. FWIW - I believe most mlssoccer.com staff picked KC but there were a few who took the draw.