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Everything posted by Stressy

  1. Re: Copa America 2015 In your example, if the team wins by 1 goal, you would have half your stake returned as a "push" and the other half would be lost (the -1.5 half). If they win by 2 goals, your bet is a winner.
  2. Re: MLS 2015 (USA/CANADA) Not much time so I'm going to have to squeeze this one in quickly. Quotes are B365. I'm going with a Columbus Crew -1 AH (2.750) and FC Dallas -1 AH (5.25) parlay. Columbus hosts Chicago in 30 mins. Columbus has put together some good results and are one the more favoured teams in the East. They lost last week but suffered a red card in the 33rd minute and were playing away so that's forgivable. Chicago on the other hand have had some mixed results. Last game they were up 2-0 with a man advantage since the 27th minute and ended up letting NYC tie the game. They aren't great, they have rebuilt the roster this year and the team is still trying to get it going. At home, I think Columbus should have a pretty comfortable game. FC Dallas is one of my favourites in the league. They are top of the West table and have a well oiled offense that's hard to contain. Montreal on the other hand have been playing fewer league games because of their Champions League run. That's over and now I think it's back to reality. They aren't a great team, they had to rebuild a lot in the offseason and they are dealing with a number of injuries and players lacking enough fitness for 90 minutes. Yes they beat Salt Lake 4-1 last week but I think that's a bit of a fluke result. Both teams to score might be a safe bet but I think Dallas will have too much for an average or below average Montreal and will win by at least a goal.
  3. Re: MLS 2015 (USA/CANADA) Just a heads up that Accam is suspended for Chicago. He's been one of their better attacking threats. Game might be screaming out for unders when you consider RSL has Rimando in net.
  4. Re: MLS 2015 (USA/CANADA) Here's what I like this weekend (May 8th-11th): New England over Orlando (I'm greedy and went -1 ah @ 5.75 b365). If you're managing things a little tighter, DNB or -0 ah are likely better options. As mentioned in the post above, Orlando are an expansion team this year and they've had a poor start to the season. They have 8pts in 8 games and have lost 3 of 4 games at home. When they did get results, they were due to some garbage goals (lucky deflection, other teams gifting them). Outside of kaka, their attack is impotent. The only other player to show some promise was Molina but he just tore knee ligaments in a friendly last week and is now out for an extended period of time. From what I've read, the coach is tinkering with the line up to account for injuries and I wouldn't be surprised to see a disjointed performance. New England on the other hand are really starting to hum (4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5) and top the eastern table. They have a lot of solid attacking players and I think they will be too much for an Orlando team desperately trying to win at home. Vancouver over Philly (-1 ah @ 2.15 b365). The whitecaps started the season strong but went a little cold recently. However key players Laba and morales picked up red cards and this no doubt had an impact. Everyone is back and Vancouver is generally strong at home. I think they'll really want to prove they are contenders by getting back on track and bagging a convincing win here. Philly is in a real mess. The results have been poor and they now have a goalkeeper crisis. Their high paid goalie has been frozen out of the team by the coach, the next two picked up injuries in training and will miss out for a few games. They have now just completed a short term loan for a young keeper playing in the next division down. He did train with the team in pre season but I imagine it's going to be difficult for him. Given all the drama, poor results and the long travel to Vancouver, I think Philly is going to take a bit of a beating. Toronto over Houston (-1 ah @ 2.425 b365). Houston appears to be in a bit of a rut. They lost their last two games (both at home) including a 1-4 thrashing by Dallas. It seems they are still trying to figure out their best line up and formation and I think this could make them vulnerable on the road. Toronto has had an okay start considering they played the first 7 games on the road. Sunday is their home opener and the first game at the newly renovated stadium. I think they are fired up and want to start their home stand with a convincing win. altidore and giovinco are going to be huge threats and I would also consider giovinco any time goal scorer as he's been ace with the free kicks. Should be a good crowd of nearly 30k (I'll be there) and that should also help drive toronto on.
  5. Thought it would be good to start one running thread for the season like the one we had for 2014. Perhaps this will encourage more discussion than what we are currently seeing. For May 2nd, I think there's value in Toronto FC to get a result against Philadelphia Union. By the numbers Toronto hasn't had a great start to the season. However, they have had to play every game away due to renovations at their stadium. They've also had some unfortunate calls (red cards, disallowed goals etc.) that stole points from them. In addition, they've had a few injuries and international absences to key USMNT players (Bradley, Altidore). Most players were back last week and TFC picked up a scrappy 2-0 away at Orlando. With Altidore and Giovinco, TFC is always going to be dangerous on offense. Their defense has been their downfall and most of it was due to silly individual errors. They seemed to have gained some confidence in the last game and are more stable without the constant changeover. My only line up worry here is that TFC looks set to play their back up goal keeper as the starter Bendik has a foot injury. Bendik however isn't a game changer himself so perhaps the change won't have much affect. Philly has had a terrible start to the season without as many excuses. They have 1W, 3D, 5L's while giving up 17 goals in 9 games. They have had some injury issues and it looks like a number of key players are still questionable (Aristeguieta - top goal scorer, Nogueira - important mid, Vitoria - starting CB). The coach also hinted at line up changes this week due to the poor performance thus far so we could see some fringe players given a chance. Lastly, Sapong got arrested the other day for drinking and driving and will now miss the game. He's been in okay form but is by no means their star player. This might also be a bit of a distraction for the team. On paper, Toronto FC has a much better team. Playing away in this league is always difficult and I assume that's why TFC are the underdogs. Most of the editors at MLSsoccer.com picked TFC to get the result too. Here are a few bets I like at low/medium stakes (all b365): TFC -1 AH @ 6.00 TFC @ 3.40 TFC 0 AH @ 2.3
  6. Re: Bundesliga > April 4th & 5th I was looking at these games. Only thing that worries me is that they both have cup games midweek and might choose to rest some first team players. Would suggest waiting for the line ups before deciding.
  7. Re: MLS 21.03.2015 - 22.03.2015 MLS is a minefield this weekend with all the international absences so make sure you take that into consideration before betting based on form/results. Nothing really jumping out at me but Toronto's projected backline worries me and with Bradley and Altidore away, the altitude, and RSL's home form, they could be ripe for a big loss. 1.75 odds (b365) for straight RSL win looks pretty good. Only concern is that Giovinco has a huge game and keeps toronto in it but I don't think it's that likely.
  8. Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday March 27th Big man making fun of someone else's picks after the games. There's no place for that here. What makes it worse is the fact that you didnt contribute anything other than that juvenile post.
  9. Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday March 27th Russian keeper was k.o.'d by a flare so it was temporarily suspended
  10. Re: MLS 21.03.2015 - 22.03.2015 Well done with the pick. I look forward to contributing to the MLS discussion throughout the season.
  11. Re: AFC Asian Cup (Australia) 2015 Any insights on Iraq v Palestine? I like the look of Iraq -1 half time Asian (2.2 @ b365) and -2 (7.3 @ b365). I honestly don't know much about the teams other than the info in the previews linked above (thanks MPL). However the following has caught my eye: - these bets would have paid out in both of Palestine's previous two group games. - Palestine lost big to Jordan and Iraq has beaten Jordan. - as far as I can tell from soccerway, Palestine has never beaten Iraq. - Iraq will want to ensure 2nd place over Jordan (both currently on 3 Pts) - Palestine is already eliminated.
  12. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I'm on Portland here too. I think wondo might still feature here but the other absences in defenders will really make it tricky for San Jose. Valeri's back and Portland has a lot of attacking weapons at their disposal. With the added playoff motivation the home team should cover a -1 ah.
  13. Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2014/2015 I'll preface that I actually don't know a great deal about either team but I think there's value in the 1st half Asian handicap markets for the Bayamon v club America game tonight. Last time these two clubs met in Mexico it was a complete annihilation as I expected. Final score was 6-1 Club America. The game was 5-0 at half time. Club America played a lot of bench players but also had a few rotating starters in the game (from what I can tell). I expect America will travel with a thin reserve heavy squad but even then you still have to like their chances. Bayamon's only other fixture in this competition was a 5-0 away loss to Comunicaciones of Guatemala. This game was 3-0 by half time. It appears that Bayamon is in their offseason and the only games they have been playing are these champions league games. Not sure if this accurate but this is what I see on soccerway. The only banana skin for this match is the fields condition. I've seen pictures of the stadium and it doesn't look half bad. Given the info above I'm thinking of the following (all b365): america -2 ah full time @ 1.725 america -1 ah half time @ 1.8 america -2 ah half time @ 5.25
  14. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Although I was hoping for better odds, New England over Montreal has to be the bet of the weekend. After a mid season slump NE has won their last 4 games and are making a major push to secure a playoff spot. They often do well at home because they play on an artificial pitch that other teams aren't used to. From what I can tell, most of their line up is healthy and they haven't played since last Sunday so they should be fresh. Montreal on the other hand have had some mixed results lately. However the big thing here is that they are very much out of the playoff picture and they are more focused on the champions league. They play New York for the champions league on Wednesday and they have already said they will rotate the squad in NE. Add that they played this past Wednesday and picked up a few injuries (including two starting defenders Camara and Ferrari) the squad for NE should be second rate. Im leaning towards NE -1 ah @ 2.1 (b365). NE have scored 9 goals in the last 4 while Montreal have given up 9 in their last 4. With a depleted team, MTL could be a sitting duck.
  15. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Toronto is starting a very weak 11 tonight. Huge value on Philly at home for over evens. TFC missing their two DP strikers and back line consists of 2 academy grads, rookie and player playing in 2nd div last year. Multi goal loss looks realistic to me.
  16. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Yeah, those two signings are likely the reason. I still think it's decent value though. As I learned last week, home advantage in MLS is big. I think New York should do the biz over Montreal. Montreal played away in El Salvador on Wednesday and a lot of their top 11 featured. At this point they are definitely more concerned by CL than league standings. NYRB is generally a strong team at home too. Seems to be priced up accordingly but their might be some value in -1 ah or throw it in an accumulator. I also think DC offers some value. KC was away in CL on Tuesday night and some key starters played heavy minutes. DC played at home and rotated the squad more. DC +1 looks good value to me. im doing low stakes parlay of: nyrb -1 ah dc +1 ah TFC -1 ah (homer pick. TFC definitely a better team on paper and Chicago is struggling for goals as of late.)
  17. Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2014/2015 It's a no bet for me. Montreal won 1-0 a couple weeks ago at home but FAS didn't travel with their full team due to visa issues. I saw the highlights and it looks like Montreal had the better chances but the goalie made some great saves. Montreal is almost certain to miss the MLS play offs so they should take this competition more serious and travel with most if not all starters. FAS's stadium doesn't meet champions league standards so they have to play at a bigger stadium 70 km away. Given this, I'm not sure how much influence the home support will play. Home support in Central America is usually a big factor. I feel like both teams to score would be a bet worth reviewing but it's not currently available on b365. I think there's decent value with the home team DNB @2.75 but I could also see Montreal pulling off a win so that's why it's a no bet for me. I might watch and pull the trigger in play if I get a sense for who's controlling the game
  18. Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2014/2015 tough break on the HT bets but both teams looked to be in control and more likely to win the 2nd half.
  19. Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2014/2015 Damn.. beauty free kick goal scored in the 44th minute by Alpha United ruined a good thing. Still alive though with the push and win in the America game.
  20. Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2014/2015 Jase, they are definitely playing a b team but I could see guys like Urruti (top scorer) playing as he only came off the bench on the weekend and was in all the twitter photos. Also guys like Jewsbury who was a regular starter last year but features less now that they have great depth. -1 half time might be risky but I think they should win easily.
  21. Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2014/2015 Okay so I think a low stakes shot at the parlay is worth a shot. I'm also going to wait for teams news to potentially go a little heavier on the individual matches. Here's more reasoning: club america is is playing a team from Puerto Rico and we all know how far ahead Mexican soccer is. According to soccerway the last game they played was a 5-0 loss to the other team in the group from Guatemala. The score was 3-0 by the 28th min and 4-0 by the 47th. The last game they played before that is way back in March (not sure if that's still accurate). America are top of liga mx and have a game Saturday. Even if they field a second string team, I figure they should at least be similar to the team from Guatemala and crush them. Cruz Azul is away to a Panamanian team and that could be tricky. However the last CL game for this team was a 6-0 home loss to Monterrey from Mexico back in 2012. Cruz Azul only has 5 Pts from 5 games in liga mx so not a great start and they will likely play a reserve team. So this one im not overly confident about but I still think it's an opportunity and might present good inplay betting when we see who's in control. Portland is away to a team from guayana. They didn't travel with the full squad but I saw on twitter some decent options are there and I think have enough fire power to do it. I also watched highlights of alpha united's first group game (lost 1-0 at home) and the defence looked terrible. Could have easily been more of a deficit if they were playing a better team. My only worry is that the game is played on a converted cricket field. Still I like Portland to start their first CL campaign strong. Kansas City are playing real esteli who are always in this competition. Last year they were in the same group and a reserve heavy Kansas won 2-0 (goal in each half). From twitter i see a lot of first team players traveled. Even if just some play they should have to much for real esteli again. Real esteli's last game was cancelled because most of the players from both teams were away for national duty. I forget where they were playing but they had to take a bus back so they might not have recovered as well as if it were a club game. -1 ah full time for the away games might be a safer bet for those not willing to risk much. Good luck to anyone who plays and I recommend trying to look at team news on twitter and comparing to soccerway.com line ups from previous games if you aren't familiar with the teams.
  22. This tournament always produces some good betting opportunities as the gap in quality in some matchups is very significant. I'm looking into a long shot parlay of all tonight's favourites: - club America -2 ah half time @ 2.375 - Portland -1 ah half time @ 3.7 - Cruz Azul -1 ah half time @ 3.1 - Kansas City -1 ah half time @ 3.55 all prices are b365 and the parlay is 96.70. Ill write a more detailed review later but all the teams above are much higher quality than their opponents. Some will likely field b teams but even then they should still be favoured. Only potential banana skin is the long travel and potentially crappy fields for the last 3 away teams. Anyway, I'll be back with more later but I wanted to get this up now to see if anyone else has thoughts.
  23. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Well if you are going to miss you might as well miss big. Vancouvers not even playing their best 11 so looks like another potential loss. Apologies to anyone who followed.
  24. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I like 3 matches tomorrow: i went for vancouver -1 ah @3.2 (b365) over chivas. Although the last meeting was a chivas 3-1 win (2 goals came late after Vancouver red card), chivas have been on a slide and lost their last four. 3 of which were by more than 1 goal. Vancouver is coming off a 2-0 win over a strong Kansas City and Pedro morales is playing very well and creating a lot of chances for their young forwards. I expect chivas to continue to slide and Vancouver to go all out for points to climb up the table and solidify a play off position. FWIW - the entire Mlssoccer.com staff picked Vancouver victory. I went for la galaxy -1 ah @3.55 (b365) over Columbus. Galaxy are on a good run and have picked up a lot of points recently. With Keane, Donovan, and the on fire Zardes, they have lots of fire power to bag goals. Columbus on the other hand are coming off a 2-3 home loss to Toronto. In my opinion they didn't look very good and to give up 3 goals at home shows some fraility in their defensive approach. Both teams will be desperate for points but I like galaxy here by a couple of goals. FWIW - All but 1 of the mlssoccer.com staff picked galaxy win. Laslty I went with the homer pick with toronto fc dnb @3.5 against KC. TFC were pretty unlucky not to beat KC at home in July. They wasted many clear goal scoring opportunities and KC capitalized on their only two chances. Earlier in the season, TFC got the late goal away for a 2-2 draw. Both teams to score at 1.8 also looks decent value given it's happened in both previous matches this season. TFC could welcome back defoe for this game but I think he'll be a second half sub at best. However Gilberto and Moore have done really well the last couple of weeks so I think toronto will threaten offensively regardless. KC also has to play their young 3rd string keeper due to injuries. Toronto has a few defenders out (but they were out the last 3 games where they won 2) and there were rumours of a slight bug going through the team but I still think they will make a game of it and the odds are too high not to have a crack at it with some coverage. FWIW - I believe most mlssoccer.com staff picked KC but there were a few who took the draw.
  25. Re: Club Friendlies 2014 lol thank god I'm still waiting for those bayern subs. Could get interesting now at 2-1.
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