WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Yep, its finally here. Its that time off year again. Staying up until 5am every night watching the ball game. Waiting for Wednesday and Sunday nights to join Johnny Gould and co on Ch5. Thats it, Sunday sees the start of the 2005 MLB season. As last year I plan to run a thread including my betting selections. As there are no strict rules to the picks I guess its a free-style system. This year I intend to play more bets on the handicap. The reason for this is unlike NFL,NBAetc the bookies give a 1.5 run handicap and adjust the odds to this , rather than find a pts difference that makes each team equal odds. I feel a 1.5 run handicap means very little in baseball. The only wiining straight bet that loses on the handicap is a 1 run win or a draw, and with the draw you still have the possibility of getting your bet in in extra innings. Quite often the handicap price can change a game from 1/2 to 4/5 or the likes. This difference in price will be what decides whether I play the game on the handicap or not. As last year, I will be employing a level stakes strategy of 2 pts per bet. Going by last year's records and the prices involved it would probably be safe to play higher stakes, maybe upto 5% of the bank. The reason I am sticking to 2pts per bet is as I intend to run a regular update for this season, starting with a 100pt bank, as well as an update for the system as a whole(including last years records). For this reason its fair to keep the staking the same. This is how the system stood at the end of last season: Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 195.43pts Profit: 95.43pts Stakes: 724pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: 13.18% No. of bets:362 Winners:226.5 Losers:135.5 SR:62.57% Av.Odds:1.82 As for all sports, a word of warning for the first week or so of the season. As we all know from the football, predictions are alot easier once form has been established and the season has settled a little. I will run picks from the start but if you're going to follow Id tread lighter to start with. With that all said I'll see you all back here Sunday for the opening game of the season, Boston Redsox @ New York Yankees. This game should probably be left alone but Im sure I'll find something, be it wise or not. PS. For those that missed last seasons thread or wish to refer back to it here is the link http://www.punterslounge.com/showthread.php?t=6697&page=1&pp=20&highlight=baseball PPS. For those wishing to follow my tips but would like to know more about the game, or for those that simply want to learn more about baseball, I have posted a guide in the Other Sports forum http://www.punterslounge.com/showthread.php?t=13985

[mr onemore]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition I read your guide last night - learnt a lot, knowing very little about how the stats are compiled - nice explanations:) That's an amazing record last year, very impressive - I'll certainly be calling in here on a regular basis to check out your selections. Good luck with this :ok

[swooperman]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Looks good, this WFTE. I'll be looking in, I think...... Nice terminology/lingo, cant it be nice & straightforward like cricket ;)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Thanks for the words guys. So here it is, hours from the opening game of the season and Im buzzing with anticipation. Unfortunatly my first selection is made with a heavy heart. This game should probably be left alone but first game and first live game Ive gotta have something on. I fancy the Yankees to take this. Johnson's pitching and Schilling is on the DL so Wells is opening for the Sox. Both teams spring training records are similiar but the Yankees bats seem to be swinging a bit better. 1.5 on the straight seems too short and if I had to bet on this Id make Boston value @ 2.6 (Betfair). But a the end of the day I feel the Yankees will win so Im going to look at the handicap. Id have NYY @ 1.7-1.75 straight so the Evs available on the handicap looks good to me. I think the bookies overprice the handicap alot, giving too much extra away for just 1 run. So the season starts like this: PLEASE NOTE: ALL TIMES AND DATES WILL BE STATED AS BST. ie TONIGHTS GAME IS STATED AS MON 01.05am 4th APRIL. BET 1 01:05am Mon 4th - LIVE ON 5 BOS @ NYY - NYY(-1.5) to win 2pts @ EVS (P.Power) New Bank: 98pts

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition I know **** all about the game WFTE but I've bunged some cash on on your recomendation so I think I'll tape it and wizz through it tomorrow if I get the chance. Cheers:ok

[Datapunter]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Here's to a great season mate :cheers

[cains]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Good luck mate... :hope With that record from last year, i will defently look by now and then. ;) / cains

[Matt]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition All the best WFTE, I'll be here to help you along the way. Not that you'll need it ;)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Thanks again guys. Well, unlike Boston, we couldnt ask for a better start. NYY didnt have it to hard though as it seemed BOS tried their hardest to throw the game away. BET 1 BOS 2 NYY 9 Returns: 4.00pts Total Returns Today:4.00pts Todays Profit:2.00pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 102.00pts Profit: 2.00pts Stakes: 2pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: 100% No. of bets:1 Winners:1 Losers:0 SR:100% Av.Odds:2.00

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Great start WFTE. :clap :clap

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition A lot of team changes in the off season makes these early games hard to call. Lots of unsurity(is that a word?) about how much affect players leaving/joining will have on the teams overall. Going out soon and may not be back before the games so Im having to go with prices available now and hope theres no pitching changes. BET 2 07:10pm Mon 4th NYM @ CIN - NYM(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.0 (Ladbrokes) BET 3 08.05pm Mon 4th CLE @ CWS - CLE to win 2pts @ 2.1 (Ladbrokes) BET 4 10.10pm Mon 4th CHC @ ARI - CHC(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.25 (Ladbrokes) New Bank: 96pts

[Datapunter]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition WFTE, on Bet 3 i assume you mean CLE to win with the listed pitcher J.Westbrook, so looking on betfair that would be the Match Odds (listed) If it does turn out to be a different pitcher do you make that a no bet ?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Yes Data. All straight bets will be on the listed markets unless there is a significant difference in price. The only difference between Listed and Action markets are that the pitchers are named on the Listed market and both most start for the bet to stand. If either fail to start the game the bet is void. Basically a little safety device if your bet is mainly based on pitchers rather than sides. The action market bets stand regardless of opening pitchers. Due to this small difference the prices rarely differ by much. If there was a huge difference I would probably take the action bet unless I knew it was unlikely for a pitcher to start. Pitcher changes dont occur that often. But to answer the question again, yes, unless stated all straight bets will be played on the listed markets.

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition On again WFTE :ok

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition A slight loss tonight but still in profit overall. Close with 2 teams only losing by 1 run. BET 2 NYM 6 CIN 7 Returns: 0pts BET 3 CLE 0 CWS 1 Returns: 0pts BET 4 CHC 16 ARI 6 Returns: 4.50pts Total Returns Today:4.50pts Todays Profit:-1.50pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 100.50pts Profit: 0.50pts Stakes: 8pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: 6.25% No. of bets:4 Winners:2 Losers:2 SR:50% Av.Odds:2.09

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition BET 5 00.05am Weds 6th STL @ HOU - STL to win 2pts @ 2.1 (Ladbrokes) BET 6 00.15am Weds 6th TOR @ TB - TOR to win 2pts @ 2.1 (W.Hills) BET 7 02.40 Weds 6th CHC @ ARI - CHC(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.3 (P.Power) BET 8 03.05am Weds 6th LAA* - TEX - LAA(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.25 (W.Hills) BET 9 03.05am Weds 6th MIN @ SEA - MIN(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes) New Bank: 90.50pts *Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Formerly Anaheim Angels.

[dave]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Will be following this thread with interest WFTE, good luck.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Small error but Ive just realised its TEX @ LAA not LAA @ TEX as previously posted. Bet still stands though, just clearing things up.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Not too bad a night. 3 from 5 winners and a profit. It would have been 4 if the LAA bet wasnt on the handicap. Im keeping track of my handicap bets and tracking them as straight bets too. Using average figures of 1.7 for the straight and 2.1 for the handicap, I predict that as long as losing handicap bets that were straight wins wouldnt have increased the handicap win ratio by more than 25% then the handicap will be more profitable. ie. If we have 40 wins on the handicap, as long as theres less than 10 losing bets due solely to the handicap than the handicap method is still more profitable. Hope that makes sense. :unsure BET 5 STL 7 HOU 3 Returns: 4.20pts BET 6 TOR 6 TB 3 Returns: 4.20pts BET 7 CHC 4 ARI 5 Returns: 0pts BET 8 TEX 2 LAA 3 Returns: 0pts BET 9 MIN 8 SEA 4 Returns: 4.00pts Total Returns Today:12.40pts Todays Profit:2.40pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 102.90pts Profit: 2.90pts Stakes: 18pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: 16.11% No. of bets:9 Winners:5 Losers:4 SR:55.56% Av.Odds:2.12

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Loads of them to get into tonight. Massive prices on the handicap for both Florida(2.66,1.75 straight) and Philidelphia(2.45,1.66 straight) BET 10 09.15pm Weds 6th TOR @ TB - Under 9.5 runs 2pts @ 1.9 (W.Hills) BET 11 10.05pm Weds 6th STL @ HOU - STL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.3 (W.Hills) BET 12 10.05pm Weds 6th STL @ HOU - Over 9.5 runs 2pts @ 1.83 (W.Hills) BET 13 00.05am Thurs 7th ATL @ FLA - FLA(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.66 (P.Power) BET 14 00.05am Thurs 7th OAK @ BAL - BAL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.40 (W.Hills) BET 15 00.05am Thurs 7th WAS @ PHI - PHI(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.45 (W.Hills) BET 16 00.05am Thurs 7th WAS @ PHI - Over 9.5 runs 2pts @ 1.8 (W.Hills) BET 17 00.10am Thurs 7th NYM @ CIN - NYM(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.37 (Ladbrokes) BET 18 03.05am Thurs 7th CHC @ ARI - CHC to win 2pts @ 2.1 (P.Power) New Bank: 84.90pts

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Just managed to borrow a debit card so Ive just made my subscription to mlbtv. :D :nana

[Datapunter]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition I'm looking at Betfair and they have the opposite market for this one. ( happened once before i think ) BET 11 10.05pm Weds 6th STL @ HOU - STL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.3 (W.Hills) So Betfair have: STL +1.5 HOU -1.5 bad prices at the moment but looks like STL +1.5 will go to something like 1.80 , so if you think they are going to win -1.5 obviously you think they will win it +1.5 and i should take it. At a different price obviously. Or is there a reason i should leave it ?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Well at the mo +1.5 is 1.52, the listed line is 1.88 and thats the one Id play. In fact its the one I am playing as I only have cash in Betfair at the mo. Very confused by why Betfair have the handicap this way round. Its 99.99% of the time the outsider which is given the +1.5, yet STL are favs and theyve been given it. Very unusual.

[Datapunter]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition i think there are 2 guys on Betfair that keep jumping each others price to be first in line, that could be you and me :rollin we better have a chat mate :lol i'm on MSN :ok

[aa421]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Have a look at Pinnacle. I noticed on Oddschecker that they appeared to have one of the handicaps the other way round (with different prices, obviously) but if you look at the Pinnacle site, then they have a range of handicaps for each of the games so, even if it's not listed on Oddschecker, they are probably offering the specified handicap. I know that WTFE picks mainline bookies, but I have got better odds at Pinnacle for most of the bets so far.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Oh dear, Oh dear, Oh dear! Firstly Id like to offer my apoligies to anyone that followed that pile of tripe I put up last night, Sorry! :o Secondly, have all the closers in the league forgot how to finish off a game, Ive never seen so many late runs given away. I think Im gonna tread a bit more careful from now on until a bit of form appears. BET 10 TOR 5 TB 8(13) Returns: 0pts BET 11 STL 1 HOU 4 Returns: 0pts BET 12 STL 1 HOU 4(5) Returns: 0pts BET 13 ATL 2 FLA 1 Returns: 0pts BET 14 OAK 9 BAL 0 Returns: 0pts BET 15 WAS 7 PHI 3 Returns: 0pts BET 16 WAS 7 PHI 3 Returns: 3.60pts BET 17 NYM 5 CIN 9 Returns: 0pts BET 18 CHC 3 ARI 8 Returns: 0pts Total Returns Today:3.60pts Todays Profit:-14.40pts :o UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 88.50pts Profit: -11.50pts Stakes: 36pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -31.94% No. of bets:18 Winners:6 Losers:12 SR:33.33% Av.Odds:2.16

[aa421]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition No need to apologise WFTE. People follow systems at their own risk and, if they are like me, are grateful that other people who seem to know what they are about are willing to share their knowledge. Keep them coming!

[Datapunter]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition :lol you need a loosing day every now and then, makes you appreciate the winning day much more. When i saw my balance at BF this morning i thought blimey, after all that trouble getting some decent prices the buggers go and lose :lol had a good laugh, all part of the game. Tonight we play again...

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Right, lets see if we can do a little better tonight. Hudson makes his 1st start for ATL tonight. The guy has a .702 career win record. Both sides will be looking for their starters to go deep as the both used 7 pitchers in last nights 13 inning marathon. Jake Peavy is all that needs to be said about SD tonight. Last years league lowest ERA of 2.27, 0.69 against PIT and a career 2.25 against PIT. PIT only managed 2 runs in each of their last two games and if Peavy's in form I doubt they'll even manage that. LAD - SF, Weaver vs Tomko, a fairly even battle. Weaver isnt the most consistent but can have his day. Its going to have to be one of those days tonight for LAD to get anything. They used 4 of their bullpen last night, their setup man is injured and they're already having to alter the rotation for Friday's game. Tomko ended last year in great form with a 1.73 ERA in his last 8 starts. Its also the right conditions for him with a 6-1 record in night games at SBC Park. With the handicap almost a point higher than the action market in some places itd be foolish not to take it. BET 19 00.05am Fri 8th ATL @ FLA - ATL to win 2pts @ 1.98(a.c) (Betfair) BET 20 03.05am Fri 8th PIT @ SD - SD(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.1 (Ladbrokes) BET 21 03.15am Fri 8th LAD @ SF - SF(-1.5) 2pts @ 2.75 (P.Power) New Bank: 82.50pts

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition EDIT TO BET 19I didnt realise Betfair were giving the -1.5 to ATL whereas everyone else was giving it to Florida. Bet 19 is now as below. BET 19 00.05am Fri 8th ATL @ FLA - ATL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.4(a.c) (Betfair)