meatman Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 So far this season, the most common scoreline in many major European leagues is 1-0 or 0-1. For example, in Le Championat, so far 21% of matches have ended 1-0 or 0-1. This stat is mirrored in Serie A (23.4%) and La Liga (20 %). Most of the 1-0 scorelines are 1-0 home wins. 15.6 % of Le Championat matches have finished 1-0 home wins, 14.4 % for Serie A and 15.1 % for La Liga. With a percentage as high as this, I believe that there is profit in backing every match in these three leagues to finish in a 1-0 home win. I reckon this season if 1-0 home win had been backed in every match, profit would definitely have been made. For example in Le Championat - Total games played - 300 Total 1-0 home wins - 47 If 10 points had been staked on every match to finish 1-0, then a total of 3000 points would have been staked so far. Now generally it is possible to get odds of at least 7.0 on a 1-0 scoreline in most matches in Le Championat. Now I know that some matches may have had shorter or longer odds but lets just say that each of the 47 home 1-0 wins was backed at odds of 7.0. 70 x 47 = 3290 According to my calculations Total points staked =3000 Total returns = 3290 Total profit = + 290 Crucially this was worked out using odds of 7.0 for each match. These odds would vary but I think on the whole, over the whole season there is potential to make profit - not a massive profit but still profit. Of course the % of 1-0 home wins will have to stay at around 15 % (or higher) in order to maintain profit. This season, profit would also have been made in Serie A and La Liga using this system. Serie A Total 1-0 home wins 42 / 290 Total stakes 2900 Total returns 2940 Total profit + 40 La Liga Total 1-0 home wins 44 / 289 Total stakes 2890 Total returns 3080 Total profit + 190 Starting this weekend with a 1000 point bank and continuing until the end of the season, I will stake 10 points on every Le Championat, Serie A and La Liga match To finish 1-0 home win. The odds for each game will be from various different bookmakers whoever offers the best price. Obviously it would not be possible to use this system in every worldwide league. For example, in the Bundesliga this season, only 8 % of matches have finished in a 1-0 home win. This % would not be high enough to generate a profit if every match had been backed. I haven’t worked out the % of 1-0 home wins in other major leagues such as the Premiership or Portuguese Superliga but I imagine there are other leagues where at least 15 % of matches finish with a 1-0 scoreline. I also haven't worked out the % of 1-0 home wins in previous seasons - I don't know whether the % is the same as this season. Obviously this system is fcucked if 1-0 home wins suddenly dry up, but if the % stays the same in each league (at around 15 %) then my prediction is that by the end of the season, I will have a profit of at least 150 points. It will be interesting to see whether this prediction will be correct. Let me know what you think to this system - will it work, will there be profit come the end of the season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System This site has correct scores http://xscores.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Are you just blanket betting on 1-0 home wins? I'm looking forward to seeing how you progress. There's more value in some 1-0 home win bets than others, for instance if you take man utd. V west brom, theres more chance of the home win, and therefore more chance of the 1-0 home win, and this may not neccesarily be reflected in the correct-score odds i.e. they may not be much lower than for say tottenham at home to newcastle. This fact has already been exploited by jackg99's system and dannycash more recently, which both appear to find value by backing the 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 scorelines in games where the home team is short odds. Good luck:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 1, 2005 Author Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Cheers for wishing me luck paul and thanks for the stats site osesame. yes this is blanket betting paul - no predicting, just plain and simple, every match will be backed 1-0 no matter who is playing , no matter how unlikely it seems. There have been some shock 1-0 home wins this season so far and if they happen again this system will really pay off. anyway, here are the best odds i can find on 1-0 home wins for this weekends matches. 10 points will be staked on each match for the teams below to win 1-0 Le Championat Ajaccio - 9.0 Sportingbet Auxerre - 7.0 Skybet Bordeaux - 7.0 Skybet Lille - 7.0 Skybet Lyon - 7.0 Bluesquare Metz - 7.0 Bet365 Nice - 7.0 Skybet Rennes - 7.0 Skybet Soxhaux - 7.0 Skybet Marseille - 7.0 Skybet Serie A Lazio - 7.0 Bet365 Fiorentina 11.0 Hills AC Milan 8.0 S James Bologna - 10.0 Superodds Atalanta - 7.50 Bet365 Palermo - 7.0 Stanleybet Udinese - 7.0 Hills Cagliari - 8.0 Bet365 Lecce - 7.0 Stanleybet La Liga Malaga - - 7.0 Skybet Albacete - 11.0 Bet365 Barcelona - 8.0 Bet365 Levante - 8.0 Hills Villareal - 7.0 Hills Sociedad - 7.0 Skybet Santander - 8.0 Sportingodds Sevilla - 8.0 Bet365 At Madrid 7.50 Hills Zaragoza - 8.50 Sportingodds One thing that was very noticeable was Skybet’s generous odds for 1-0 home wins in Le Championat. Often Skybet was the only bookmaker offering odds of 7.0, others were either 5.5, 6.0 or 6.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 4, 2005 Author Share Posted April 4, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System So then, not a bad start. As all Serie A matches were postponed, only 200 points were staked instead of the planned 300. They were four 1-0 wins over the weekend in Le Championat and La Liga which were:- Lyon 1-0 Lens @ 7.0 Rennes 1-0 Batia @ 7.0 Sochaux 1-0 Caen @ 7.0 Sevilla 1-0 Numancia @8.0 statistics so far Starting bank - 1000 Current bank - 1090 Total staked - 200 Number of bets - 20 Winning bets - 4 Losing bets - 16 Profit / loss - +90 Over the weekend, 20% of the matches backed ended in 1-0 home wins. This is higher than the expected 15%, so a reasonable profit was generated. It is also worth pointing out that if there had only been three 1-0 results instead of four, profit would still have been generated. I also have to say thanks to skybet for offering such generous odds for Le Championat matches. Bring on the next set of matches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 8, 2005 Author Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System This weekends best prices for 1-0 home wins. As per usual 10 points will be staked on each match. Le Championat Nantes - 9.0 sportingbet Caen - 6.50 Bet365 Istres - 9.0 Sportingbet Lens - 6.50 Betdirect PSG - 6.50 Betdirect St Etienne - 6.50 Betditect Strasbourg- 8.0 Sportingbet Toulouse - 6.50 Betdirect Ajaccio - 7.50 Sportingbet Monaco - 6.50 Betdirect La Liga Numancia - 9.50 Superodds Bilbao - 7.50 Eurobet Betis - 8.0 Eurobet Espanyol - 8.0 Ladbrokes Getafe- 7.50 Eurobet Mallorca - 8.0 Ladbrokes Osasuna - 8.0 Ladbrokes Valencia - 8.0 Bet365 R Madrid - 8.50 Sportingbet Deportivo - 7.50 Bet365 Serie A AC Milan - 7.50 Blue Square Bologna - 9.0 Sportingbet Fiorentina - 11.0 Bet365 Atalanta - 7.50 Bet365 Cagliari - 8.0 Bet365 Lazio - 7.0 Bet365 Lecce - 7.0 Bet365 Palermo - 7.0 Bet365 Reggina - 7.50 Stanleybet Udinese - 7.0 Stanleybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Speculator Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Meatman, this is a very interesting strategy and potentially has some distance in it - keep up the posts as I'm sure they will provide and provoke some good dialogue. There is certainly something to be said for this type of approach and the various probabilities of looking at the market and scenarios like this as a whole. The bookies don't have everything covered and now with the different offerings from the exchanges there can be an edge there if it can be found. By combining different strategies and price/value analysis I believe there is an edge there - certainly the 1-0 / 0-1 approach is one to follow.............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 11, 2005 Author Share Posted April 11, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System The 1-0s that came in this weekend were:- Strasbourg (v Marseille) @ 8.0 (a 93rd minute goal !!) Numancia (v At Madrid) @ 9.0 (an 88th minute strike !!) Getafe (v Albacete) @ 7.50 Osasuna (v Racing Santander) @ 8.0 The weekend statistics Total staked 290 Number of bets 29 Winning bets 4 Losing bets 25 Profit / loss +40 Overall so far Starting bank 1000 Current bank 1130 Total staked 490 Number of bets 49 Winning bets 8 Losing bets 41 Profit / loss + 130 Strike rate 16.3 % Yield 26.5% So then, profit again, but there weren't that many 1-0s. Out of a total of 29 matches (Monaco - Lille was cancelled, don’t know why) only 4 ended 1-0. In Serie A, there were no 1-0’s, Le Championat just 1 but La Liga was a saviour with 3. The only reason why I was in profit over the weekend was because the 1-0s that came in were at high prices e.g. Numancia @ 9.0. Normally, the 1-0s that come in are priced at 7.0. But this is another reason why I think this system will be successful - because there will always be some shock 1-0 home wins at big prices, just look at Numancia and Strasbourg over the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted April 11, 2005 Share Posted April 11, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System . Out of a total of 29 matches (Monaco - Lille was cancelled' date= don’t know why) only 4 ended 1-0. In Serie A, there were no 1-0’s, Le Championat just 1 but La Liga was a saviour with 3.Prince Ranier died! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 11, 2005 Share Posted April 11, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Ill be especially interested to see how the French results get on as the French leagues are the lowest scoring around so this method could well prove profitable for them. I was considering something similiar with them involving 0-0's as this year they also show a particular high draw strikerate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 11, 2005 Author Share Posted April 11, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System can't beleive i missed that prince Rainier death - i must look completely thick!!. wfte, interesting that you were considering doing a 0-0 system in Le Championat. i was as well and still might. This season, 14 % of Le Championat matches have finished 0-0 and in past seasons the figure has been above 10%. I would say a 0-0 in Le Championat can generally be backed at odds of at least 6.50. so there may be value in backing each match to end 0-0 but generally i would say the percentage would have to be constantly 15% or higher to be in constant profit. all the same it has potential Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 15, 2005 Author Share Posted April 15, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System This weekends best prices for 1-0 home wins. As per usual 10 points will be staked on each match. Le Championat Lille 6.50 Betdirect Bastia 6.50 Betdirect Bordeaux 6.50 Betdirect Marseille 6.50 Betdirect Metz 7.0 Skybet Nice 7.0 Skybet Rennes 6.50 Betdirect Sochaux 7.0 Bet365 Auxerre 6.50 Betdirect Lyon 6.50 Betdirect La Liga A Madrid 7.50 Eurobet Sevilla 8.0 Bet365 Sociedad 8.0 Bet365 Albacete 8.0 Bet365 Mallorca 9.0 Bet365 Santander 8.0 Bet365 Zaragoza 8.0 Eurobet Villareal 7.50 Eurobet Levante 12.0 Bet365 Barcalona 9.0 Eurobet Serie A Messina 8.50 Superodds Roma 7.0 Stanleybet Sampdoria 7.50 Stanleybet Bologna 8.0 Bet365 Brescia 8.0 Bet365 Chievo 8.0 Bet365 Inter 8.0 Bet365 Juventus 7.50 Coral Livorno 8.0 Bet365 Siena 12.0 Superodds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 18, 2005 Author Share Posted April 18, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System 1-0 results over the weekend were:- Sociedad (v Deportivo) @ 8.0 Messina (v Udinese) @ 8.50 Sampdoria (v Palermo) @ 7.50 (last minute penalty!!) Brescia (v Atalanta) @ 8.0 (another last minute penalty!!) The weekend Statistics Total staked 300 Number of bets 30 Winning bets 4 Losing bets 26 Profit / loss +20 Overall so far Starting bank 1000 Current bank 1150 Total staked 790 Number of bets 79 Winning bets 12 Losing bets 67 Profit / loss + 150 Strike rate 15.1 % Yield 18.9% so then, profit for the third consecutive week, although only a slight one. was helped by a couple of last minute penalties in Serie A but the surprise was that there were no 1-0s in Le Championat, the league where you would expect the most 1-0s. I don't really mind as i will always take profit of any kind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted April 18, 2005 Share Posted April 18, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System this looks quality so far mate. will follow with great interest. hope your run continues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 19, 2005 Author Share Posted April 19, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Cheers Bruise - i hope the 1-0s keep coming in!! Top prices for 1-0s in midweek Serie A matches. As usual 10 points to be staked on each match. AC Milan 7.50 Bet365 Cagliari 8.0 Bet365 Foirentina 7.0 Bet365 Juventus 7.50 Bet365 Lecce 8.0 Bet365 Palermo 7.0 Bet365 Parma 8.0 Bet365 Reggina 7.0 Bet365 Roma 7.0 Bet365 Udinese 7.0 Bet365 Incredibly Bet365 offer the top prices for every 1-0. Only Stanleybet could come close to matching them (and that was only occasionally) Will Bet365 pay for this I wonder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 20, 2005 Author Share Posted April 20, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System well it looked good with 5 minutes left but late goals from Lazio, Messina and Livorno denied me of what could have been a bumper night of 1-0s. instead only AC Milan won 1-0 @7.50 1-1 was the scoreline to be on tonight with an incredible 5 in Serie A Overall so far Starting bank 1000 Current bank 1125 Total staked 890 Number of bets 89 Winning bets 13 Losing bets 76 Profit / loss + 125 Strike rate 14.6 % Yield 7.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 22, 2005 Author Share Posted April 22, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System This weekends best prices for 1-0 home wins. As per usual 10 points will be staked on each match. Le Championat PSG 6.50 Betdirect Monaco 7.0 Bet365 Ajaccio 7.50 Bet365 Caen 7.50 Bet365 Istres 8.50 Bet365 Lens 7.0 Bet365 Nantes 8.0 Bet 365 St Etienne 7.0 Skybet Strasbourg 8.0 Bet365 Auxerre 8.0 Bet365 La Liga Osasuna 8.0 Paddy Power R Madrid 8.0 Eurobet Betis 7.50 Eurobet Deportivo 7.50 Eurobet Espanyol 7.50 Eurobet Getafe 7.50 Eurobet Numancia 8.0 Ladbrokes Valencia 8.0 Bet365 Malaga 11.50 Eurobet Bilbao 8.0 Bet365 Serie A Siena 8.0 Bet365 Ac Milan 7.0 Ladbrokes Atalanta 8.50 Stanleybet Bologna 8.0 Bet365 Brescia 7.50 Bet365 Chievo 7.50 Bet365 Livorno 7.50 Bet365 Messina 10.0 Sportingbet Sampdoria 7.0 Bet365 Lazio 9.0 Premierbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted April 23, 2005 Share Posted April 23, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Very interesting batman,keeping a close eye.Have you done any backtesting?This has potential written all over it!!!!! Signed : The Lubet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 23, 2005 Author Share Posted April 23, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System The Lubet - no i didn't do any backtesting on it but it was something i had considered for some time and finally decided to try it out. I guess the trick is to find the right league to do this on and to have to bottle to back every match no matter how unlikely the result seems. At the moment after 3 weeks of the system, profit is at 125 points. i predicted at the start of this system that i would obtain profit of at least 150 points by the end of the season. Now i predict that i will have profit of at least 200-250 points. one thing i have learned so far is that it is essential to back the best price available. Sometimes this is a bit of a hassle but as i said it is essential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkayer Posted April 23, 2005 Share Posted April 23, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Checked some stats from earlier seasons and this is what I found. Looks like sticking with French league only might be a good choice French div 1 04/05: 6.45 (avg. odds needed to break even) 03/04: 8.08 02/03: 5.84 01/02: 7.65 00/01: 5.88 Serie A: 04/05: 6.80 03/04: 11.30 02/03: 9.56 01/02: 9.27 00/01: 10.20 Primera Liga: 04/05: 6.51 03/04: 9.04 02/03: 9.50 01/02: 10.50 00/01: 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazabroad Posted April 23, 2005 Share Posted April 23, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Sorry for being thick but what do those figures represent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkayer Posted April 24, 2005 Share Posted April 24, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Calculated the average odds you would have needed the last 5 seasons to go break even if you bet 1-0 on all matches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 24, 2005 Author Share Posted April 24, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System yes kkayer, the french league is a league where a consistently high amount of 1-0s happen so in the future, i may well just do this league only. Obviously from your statistics it seems that this season is a freak year of 1-0s in Serie A and La Liga - it will be interesting to see whether this will continue next season or not. Of course i may move into new leagues, in fact someone told me a few days ago that the Czech, Ukrainian and Serbian leagues all consistently have high numbers of 1-0s every season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkayer Posted April 24, 2005 Share Posted April 24, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Ukrainian league has been extreme this season and last. 1/5 matches have ended in 1-0! Before that it wasnt so high though. The most consistant leagues seems to be Italy Serie B and Serie C, but don't know whether bookies offer excact score on those leagues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 24, 2005 Author Share Posted April 24, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Just the four 1-0s this weekend Osauna @ 8.0 Getafe @7.50 Atalanta @ 8.50 Livorno @ 7.50 incredibly for the second week running, there were no 1-0s in Le Championat. This is surprising as i would expect this league to contain the most 1-0s. The weekend Statistics Total staked 300 Number of bets 30 Winning bets 4 Losing bets 26 Profit / loss +15 Overall so far Starting bank 1000 Current bank 1140 Total staked 1190 Number of bets 119 Winning bets 17 Losing bets 102 Profit / loss + 140 Strike rate 14.2 % Yield 11.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 27, 2005 Author Share Posted April 27, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Thursday night La Liga match Osasuna v Villareal top price for 1-0 - 8.0 Bet365. 10 points to be staked as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 28, 2005 Author Share Posted April 28, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System make that price for tonights match 8.50 - Eurobet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted April 29, 2005 Author Share Posted April 29, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Well Osasuna's 3-2 win means that this bet was a loser Overall so far Starting bank 1000 Current bank 1130 Total staked 1200 Number of bets 120 Winning bets 17 Losing bets 103 Profit / loss + 130 Strike rate 14.1 % Yield 10.8% This weekends best prices for 1-0 home wins. As per usual 10 points will be staked on each match. Le Championat Auxerre 6.50 Betdirect Monaco 6.50 Betdirect La Liga A Madrid 7.50 Eurobet Numancia 11.0 William Hill Sociedad 10.0 Skybet Levante 8.0 Ladbrokes Mallorca 8.50 Superodds Santander 8.50 Superodds Zaragoza 7.50 Eurobet Villareal 8.0 Bet365 Barcelona 11.0 Eurobet Sevilla 7.50 Eurobet Serie A Fiorentina 10.0 Bet365 Inter Milan 8.0 Bet365 Juventus 8.0 William Hill Lecce 7.50 Victorchandler Messina 9.0 Victorchandler Parma 7.0 Stanleybet Roma 7.0 Stanleybet Udinese 7.0 Stanleybet Palermo 7.0 Victorcahndler at the moment no bookmaker will offer a price for the Cagliari -Reggina match due to the rumours that this match may be a fixed draw. Only chance of betting on the 1-0 is on betfair (9.80) but i have not been using betfair during this 1-0 system so i will not start now. Also as the match is likely to end a draw, it would probably be a waste of money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted May 2, 2005 Author Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System Disaster!! Not a single 1-0 at all. I guess it was destined to happen one week but how unlucky can you get? Personally I can’t believe it and this is a real blow. The weekend Statistics Total staked 220 Number of bets 22 Winning bets 0 Losing bets 22 Profit / loss -220 Overall so far Starting bank 1000 Current bank 910 Total staked 1420 Number of bets 142 Winning bets 17 Losing bets 125 Profit / loss - 90 Strike rate 11.9 % Yield -6.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted May 6, 2005 Author Share Posted May 6, 2005 Re: 1-0 Home Wins System This weekends best prices for 1-0 home wins. As per usual 10 points will be staked on each match. Le Championat Bordeaux 7.0 Skybet Marseille 7.0 Coral Bastia 7.0 Skybet Lille 6.50 Coral Metz 6.50 Coral Nice 6.50 Bet365 Rennes 7.0 Bet365 Toulouse 6.50 Coral Sochaux 6.0 Bet365 Lyon 7.0 Coral La Liga Bilbao 7.50 W Hill Osauna 8.0 Bet365 R Madrid 8.0 Skybet Betis 8.0 Bet365 Albacete 8.0 Skybet Espanyol 8.0 Bet365 Getafe 8.0 Ladbrokes Malaga 9.0 Superodds Valencia 9.0 Premierbet Deportivo 7.50 W Hill Serie A AC Milan 7.50 P Power Atalanta 7.0 Bet365 Brescia 9.0 Superodds Cagliari 8.50 Bet365 Chievo 8.0 Bet365 Lazio 8.0 Bet365 Livorno 9.0 Bet365 Parma 7.50 W Hill Reggina 11.0 Betfair Sampdoria 7.50 W Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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