Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd Lens- Tours Both teams are missing some important players for this match. Lens have no1 GK Alphonse Areola injured which is a massive blow. He’s easily been the best keeper in ligue 2 this season and has saved them many points at crucial times. Replacement Rudy Riou isn’t too bad but he’s nowhere near the level that Areola is. Lens also still miss key defender Ahmed Kantari to injury and vital right winger Pablo Chavarria is another on the sidelines. Finally they miss CB Loic Landre to international selection and he would’ve started tonight. Lens do have a reasonably big squad but 4 regular players (3 of which are key) all miss out here which doesn’t help them. Tours still have key defender Samuel Bouhours injured and they also have another doubt at the back where new signing Milosevic could be a late casualty. Winger Damien Kouakou isn’t included in the squad again due to a rift he’s had with manager Olivier Pantaloni. It’s possible key playmaker Bryan Bergougnoux might have to be content with a place on the bench again due to the improved form of Youssouf Adnane. Tours have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and from a defensive point of view they’ve been pretty poor of late, not looking at all stable at the rear. On the flip side, they are always a threat upfront and have quite a few players who are always capable of netting. I think this is a pretty difficult match to assess. Lens are a good team but their absences don’t help matters. Add in the fact they’ve been a bit dodgy of late doesn’t make me that confident about them. There’s no doubt though that they should create numerous chances tonight, the Tours defence has been constantly crap in recent weeks. This should be an open game of football but potential bad weather and strong winds are forecast, which won’t make life easy for the players. Ultimately, I think that Lens and the overs wouldn’t be bad bets here, but the prices on both are poor at the moment. I think I’d want odds of at least 2.0 and above on Lens before I could consider backing them. Its unlikely to happen though because they are a strong odds-on shot at the moment. I think this is probably a good match to swerve and just hope a good IR play becomes available. Prediction Lens 2-1 Tours NO BET

[senk]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd Maybe we will have a nice chance if Tours scores first. Lens is strong enough to score atleast once at home and Tours likely conceeds a goal tonight like they always do away from home. Odds will be big with a score of 0-1 for Lens to win or atleast draw the match! Best thing to do is wait how the game developes in the first minutes! Pre game the odds are indeed low for a side who haven't won a lot of games lately. Maybe the BTS option is worth a bet with all these missings in defense?

[Truli]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd Lens-Tours ... As meatman said it's very difficult match to predict but i will try a draw here. My bet is mainly based on the fact that tours is without a draw from 10 matches !!! That kind of situation is very unusual in Ligue 2 as one of the most draws league where around 32 % of matches end with splitting points. 3/10 - draw 3.3 1/10 - correct score 1-1 6.5

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd

Lens-Tours ... As meatman said it's very difficult match to predict but i will try a draw here. My bet is mainly based on the fact that tours is without a draw from 10 matches !!! That kind of situation is very unusual in Ligue 2 as one of the most draws league where around 32 % of matches end with splitting points. 3/10 - draw 3.3 1/10 - correct score 1-1 6.5

yeh law of averages says they will draw a game soon, this could be a wise option I forgot to add earlier. Lens haven't won back to back games in the ligue since August 30th!! They never seem to be able to string together victories and tend to perform better after disappointing results.

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd I uploaded the Caen -Clermont video. I've got to say I thought the 2nd goal looked pretty suspicious. Link here https://vimeo.com/88055037

[dave5perth]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd

I uploaded the Caen -Clermont video. I've got to say I thought the 2nd goal looked pretty suspicious. Link here https://vimeo.com/88055037

Just had a look at the video meatman, I was informed the goalkeeper was kicking the goalpost after 1st goal, normally a good sign for any nonsense, but didnt notice that on video. Anyway most of the punters I would think had Caen for the match, so all ends well in the end.

[polio71]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd

I uploaded the Caen -Clermont video. I've got to say I thought the 2nd goal looked pretty suspicious. Link here https://vimeo.com/88055037

Thanks for posting that meatman, very helpful, 2 Caen did look a bit 'soft' imho.

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd

Just had a look at the video meatman' date=' I was informed the goalkeeper was kicking the goalpost after 1st goal, normally a good sign for any nonsense, but didnt notice that on video. Anyway most of the punters I would think had Caen for the match, so all ends well in the end.[/quote'] yeh at the end of the day not many punters are going to complain because Caen were such a popular pick! If it was fixed then it saved me 7 units on a bet that looked like a 99% loser. Although wish they had arranged to win by a bigger margin obviously :D

[dave5perth]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd

yeh at the end of the day not many punters are going to complain because Caen were such a popular pick! If it was fixed then it saved me 7 units on a bet that looked like a 99% loser. Although wish they had arranged to win by a bigger margin obviously :D

Meatman...... just curious about a few things about this caen match. Caen at half/time were 3/1 given the fact that they are a goal down, and normally french football is perceived to be a low scoring league. Would these odds be shorter than normal for a team 1 goal behind? Also what percentage of matches would you say in these leagues, would a team come from 1 down at half/time to win? Dont want to keep nipping your balls about this match, but as your one of the main experts in this league, you may know this already? Cheers.

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd

Meatman...... just curious about a few things about this caen match. Caen at half/time were 3/1 given the fact that they are a goal down' date=' and normally french football is perceived to be a low scoring league. Would these odds be shorter than normal for a team 1 goal behind? Also what percentage of matches would you say in these leagues, would a team come from 1 down at half/time to win? Dont want to keep nipping your balls about this match, but as your one of the main experts in this league, you may know this already? Cheers.[/quote'] The % of matches HT/FT 2/1 is less than 2% this season in Ligue 1 and 2, so obviously very low chances of it happening. The Caen price at HT seems about normal...I think, although not totally sure. The other weird thing was that Brest came from behind at HT to win as well. So to have two of these games happening in one night was bizarre. For me, its just too much of a coincidence that something gets backed massively like this and then it actually happens. Something dodgy must have been at work

[minutulsiscorul]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd Now... is Lens going to win from behind to make it three?

[gavanski]

Re: Ligue 2 > February 28th - March 3rd Almost another ht/ft jackpot :D. Not much of knower of Ligue 2, but I thought this was a very quality game, especially in the first half. Seemed to me that Lens was quite lucky to not be even more behind, they looked clueless for most part of the second half before the set piece goal and a penalty, in the end could have even turned it around. Anyway, glad that the overs went in, many thanks to Meatman for the information about defensuve missings