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Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th

Aidymac

By Aidymac
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Aidymac

Aidymac

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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fulham v Liverpool (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.47[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.37 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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-Blackadder-

-Blackadder-

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th I'll start off this post by saying I'm a Liverpool fan so keep that it mind regarding my thoughts on this game. Quite frankly, I can only see Liverpool smashing Fulham. Anyone who watched the game against Arsenal can attest to how good we were - it really could have been closer to 8-1 than 5-1, we missed two or three one on ones, Suarez hit the post with THAT shot, Suarez nearly scored with THAT free kick, Cissokho missed a decent chance in the dying seconds. In response, Arsenal had a couple of half-chances and scored from a penalty that came from one of the most pointless tackles I've seen recently. My only fear on the Liverpool side is our well-known ability to mess up against relegation fodder after great wins (see WBA two weeks ago). It really is as Steven Gerrard said recently in an interview - if the motivation is there, it'll be another demolition job. As far as Fulham are concerned... I can't claim to have watched them much this season but they are bottom for a reason. Their point at United is commendable, however they will be tired after such an effort, and with Liverpool's fast attack a tired defence is not a small matter. Also, Liverpool are not managed by a manager with the tactical knowledge of a slightly retarded chimpanzee, and are likely to try something more penetrative than 82 crosses. Liverpool have won 5 out of the last 7 head to head meetings between the sides, with Fulham winning the other two (1-0 and 0-1). Our away record is admittedly not awe-inspiring: P12 W4 D4 L4. However, neither is Fulham's home record: P12 W3 D1 L12 - they lost at home to League One strugglers Sheffield United in their last game, and were thumped 4-1 by Sunderland recently. If we assume that Liverpool will win the game, there are some juicy odds to be found in some markets other than the straight 1X2. The -1.5 handicap is 21/20 with bet365; of Liverpool's four away victories in the League, three of them have been by more than one goal, the other being against Aston Villa (1-0) at the beginning of the season when Suarez was still suspended and we sat back after Sturridge's early goal. Out of Fulham's eight defeats, five have been by two or more goals, with the three that were by one goal coming against Swansea, Cardiff and Villas-Boas's Spurs, none of whom are close to as free-scoring as Liverpool. Similarly, Liverpool HT-FT is 20/21 with 365. Again, Liverpool have won HT-FT in three of their four away victories, and the were winning 2-0 until Stoke scored in the 39th and 45th minutes in their 5-3 win a while ago. In addition, we have been leading at HT in three of our other away League games, and in EVERY one of our 11 home victories. (I think Fulham have only lost four games HT-FT at home this year though, out of a total of eight home league defeats.) As far as team news in concerned both sides should be picking from the same players as they did in their previous games; Liverpool are still without Lucas, Sakho, Agger, Enrique and Johnson, while Fulham have no new injuries. I personally plan to go with the -1.5 handicap, but I think it's quite likely that both bets will come in. Given Liverpool's tendency to race into a lead and then fall off a bit I think Liverpool to win the first half with a -1.5 handicap at 4 with 365 is worth a try as well. If anyone has any thoughts on the game please share them - it's always great to have your views challenged, makes you rethink your bets. Good luck all!

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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th

The -1.5 handicap is 21/20 with bet365; of Liverpool's four away victories in the League, three of them have been by more than one goal, the other being against Aston Villa (1-0) at the beginning of the season when Suarez was still suspended and we sat back after Sturridge's early goal. Out of Fulham's eight defeats, five have been by two or more goals, with the three that were by one goal coming against Swansea, Cardiff and Villas-Boas's Spurs, none of whom are close to as free-scoring as Liverpool. Similarly, Liverpool HT-FT is 20/21 with 365. Again, Liverpool have won HT-FT in three of their four away victories, and the were winning 2-0 until Stoke scored in the 39th and 45th minutes in their 5-3 win a while ago. In addition, we have been leading at HT in three of our other away League games, and in EVERY one of our 11 home victories. (I think Fulham have only lost four games HT-FT at home this year though, out of a total of eight home league defeats.) As far as team news in concerned both sides should be picking from the same players as they did in their previous games; Liverpool are still without Lucas, Sakho, Agger, Enrique and Johnson, while Fulham have no new injuries. I personally plan to go with the -1.5 handicap, but I think it's quite likely that both bets will come in. Given Liverpool's tendency to race into a lead and then fall off a bit I think Liverpool to win the first half with a -1.5 handicap at 4 with 365 is worth a try as well. If anyone has any thoughts on the game please share them - it's always great to have your views challenged, makes you rethink your bets. Good luck all!
Hi Blackadder, Nice writeup. A few things though just based on stats. Liverpool only winning HT/FT in 3 of 12 away games is poor. The odds for this bet based on stats and implied odds should be about 2.8 . SO I don't think that this bet is getting the right odds from the bookmakers. For example CELTIC and BARCELONA lead this stat in Europe and they have 8 HT/FT win win's away. Liverpool scare me a little. 3 games spring to mind which cost me big bucks. They played crap in matches that they were expected to win easily. WBA v Liverpool (1-1) Liverpool v Villa (2-2) Hull v Liverpool (3-1) The one stat that is very impressive by Liverpool in away games is 1st half match goals They (and NAC Breda) have each gone over 1.5 match goals in 9 of 12 away 1st halves. These numbers are the best in Europe in over 1.5 1st half away match goals. Liverpool are 12 of 12 in over .5 1st half goals away. If Fulham park the bus again with 6 at the back, this bet could easily go belly up. However, my feeling is that Liverpool's playing style is completely different to Man United, and Fulham's parked bus will get shifted quicker than in the Man U game. the best odds for over 1.5 1st half goals is 2.38 coral
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-Blackadder-

-Blackadder-

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th

Hi Blackadder, Nice writeup. A few things though just based on stats. Liverpool only winning HT/FT in 3 of 12 away games is poor. The odds for this bet based on stats and implied odds should be about 2.8 . SO I don't think that this bet is getting the right odds from the bookmakers. For example CELTIC and BARCELONA lead this stat in Europe and they have 8 HT/FT win win's away. Liverpool scare me a little. 3 games spring to mind which cost me big bucks. They played crap in matches that they were expected to win easily. WBA v Liverpool (1-1) Liverpool v Villa (2-2) Hull v Liverpool (3-1) The one stat that is very impressive by Liverpool in away games is 1st half match goals They (and NAC Breda) have each gone over 1.5 match goals in 9 of 12 away 1st halves. These numbers are the best in Europe in over 1.5 1st half away match goals. Liverpool are 12 of 12 in over .5 1st half goals away. If Fulham park the bus again with 6 at the back, this bet could easily go belly up. However, my feeling is that Liverpool's playing style is completely different to Man United, and Fulham's parked bus will get shifted quicker than in the Man U game. the best odds for over 1.5 1st half goals is 2.38 coral
I would agree with you about the HT/FT stats, were it not Liverpool. I don't know how often you watch Liverpool but as a fan who watches most games I can say that we basically have two sides, one that could challenge for the title (the one we saw on Saturday), and one which manages to drop points when you would expect them to win with their eyes shut (the one we saw last weekend against WBA). You can generally tell which one is playing within the first few minutes. I've posted my reasons for expecting 'Good Liverpool' to turn up above; and the stats show that when we play well away, we generally win HT-FT. Apart from our wins, the only away games I would say we played particularly well in were at Man City and Everton. We were winning 2-1 at half-time and should have won against Everton (Allen missed a great chance to make it 3-1, and without wanting to sound childish Mirallas should have been sent off in the first half; I think he went on to get the assists for the last two goals), and against City we took the lead (in the first half, unsurprisingly, though they did make it 2-1 by half time). Of course, this is Liverpool, so God knows what'll happen - we'll probably end up losing 3-0! :D - but I feel '3 HT-FT wins in 12' doesn't really paint the full picture for this particular team. ... However, your over 1.5 first half goals at 2.38 bet actually seems better, given the higher odds than both of my primary suggested ones and, of course, the fact that it covers for Fulham nicking one and it being 1-1 or something like that at half time. Thanks for your input :)
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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th Liverpool seem to do their scoring in the 1st half of away games. They have 27 1st half match goals and 19 second half goals. It is a strange statistic, because most top teams get better and score more in the second half of games. They have the 2nd lowest more 2nd half than 1st half percentage in Europe. Don't know what to make of it really. Are they changing tactics at halftime ? What are they doing wrong after 45 minutes, away from home ? Foot off the gas ? Playing too deep? Trying to nurse a slender lead over the line ? Their 2nd half away record is 2-5-5 with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded .... At Home Liverpool are right on the pace, but if they are ever going to win the Premier league they have to be better away from home. Maybe risk more, and potentially lose more games, but also win more. The tactical balance of risk/reward is not right at the moment in their away games.. Arsenal Chelsea and Tottenham are 10,10 and 6 points ahead of Liverpool in away performance. Fergie did this last year, and it was tactical genius. United had crazy games away last year, of just out-scoring their opponents while not playing half-decent defense. They cruised the EPL on their away form.

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allthethings

allthethings

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th

For example CELTIC and BARCELONA lead this stat in Europe and they have 8 HT/FT win win's away. The one stat that is very impressive by Liverpool in away games is 1st half match goals They (and NAC Breda) have each gone over 1.5 match goals in 9 of 12 away 1st halves. These numbers are the best in Europe in over 1.5 1st half away match goals. Liverpool are 12 of 12 in over .5 1st half goals away.
Neilovan, where do you get these great stats?
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th

Liverpool seem to do their scoring in the 1st half of away games. They have 27 1st half match goals and 19 second half goals. It is a strange statistic, because most top teams get better and score more in the second half of games.
I think they are probably the strongest counter-attacking side, and they know it. Once they get a lead, they know chances will be far easier for them, and they try to take quick advantage.
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gogoto

gogoto

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th LINE-UPS - Fulham v Liverpool (2000 GMT) Fulham: Stekelenburg, Riether, Burn, Heitinga, Riise, Tunnicliffe, Sidwell, Kvist Jorgensen, Richardson, Holtby, Bent. Subs: Hangeland, Kasami, Kacaniklic, Stockdale, Duff, Cole, Parker. Liverpool: Mignolet, Flanagan, Skrtel, Toure, Cissokho, Henderson, Gerrard, Coutinho, Suarez, Sturridge, Sterling. Subs: Brad Jones, Agger, Aspas, Moses, Allen, Kelly, Teixeira.

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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Fulham v Liverpool > Wednesday February 12th

Neilovan' date=' where do you get these great stats?[/quote'] I got pissed off being unable to find the stats I wanted, so I wrote my own software http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/over-under-goals-1st-half great pass by Gerrard to get a 1st half winner
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