Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Aidymac]

:ok

[beaker1]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to r/caller for use of these trends ] The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 11th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 9 of the last 15 winners being trained in Ireland. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Won last time out in the past 55 days - Posted an RPR of 137+ last time - Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts - Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles - Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle - Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat - Finished in first 5 in 2013 Champion Bumper - Deloitte Novice Hurdle winners do well - Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle I havent looked through the whole field yet but Saturday's performance by Irving was pretty taking and he certainly wont be far away come the main event. Cheltenham is a completely different track to Kempton mind you, but he has an impressive turn of foot.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle I have now looked through what appear to be the main protagonists (based on the Betfair markets) and my thoughts are as follows: Irving looks like a class horse in the making. He jumps impressively, he travels really nicely and he has a nice turn of foot as well. Whilst he hasnt run at Cheltenham before I dont see it holding any fears for him because he looks as though he is the type that will power up the hill. On the face of it his form is average, although the horse in 2nd at Kempton looks a fairly solid yardstick and he did have Splash of Ginge 6l behind the time before. I would certainly mark him down as a horse with more to come but unfortunately the market has already reacted. Vautour is the pick of the Irish in the market and its quite easy to see why. He won his maiden with ease, quickening nicely clear of an average bunch. He then went on to beat Western Boy by a small margin where the Mullins horse looked a little flat to my eye. After the race his trainer said that he had pulled himself through the early stages and his jockey was confident there was more in the tank. It was quite impressive that he battled back to win in the end and again the 2nd isnt a bad horse himself. He was back to his best LTO beating The Tullow Tank and whilst I have always thought TTT was a beatable horse, he actually surpassed my expectations and in turn boosted my opinion of Vautour. I do think he is a class horse but again that is something the market has already spotted! On the whole I think he ticks all the boxes (other than racing at Chelt before). He looks the part visually and his form is rock solid. Wicklow Brave is hard one to weigh up. He isn't the greatest of jumpers which is a worry. The 3rd of his last run has won a G2 since, but in truth he didnt look anything special to me and certainly not in the same league as TTT or Western Boy. He certainly travels well and has a turn of foot and he too will be best seen off a strong gallop but there is just something about him that makes me think he isn't quite at this level. Something also makes me think that we wont see him at his best around Cheltenham and that he may be better on a flatter track. I have no evidence to back that assertion up (especially seeing as he won at Punchestown LTO) but its just an inkling I have. Josses Hill doesnt look good enough to me. He took a while to get going at Newbury before coming home strongly and then at Kempton he got in front before weakening at the finish. He had Tiqris behind at Newbury who has done ok since but its not good enough to win this race IMO. Not always the fluentest hurdler either. Western Boy might be an interesting outsider. I dont see him reversing the form with Vautour based on my comments above but even that level might not leave him too far off. At Leopardstown he got a little hampered before quickening nicely once in the clear. The form is worth nothing all told, but the way he quickened at the death suggests that he would enjoy running up the hill. At Punchestown he travels just as well as Vautour, takes a little longer to get going, gets alongside and then Vautour pulls out that little extra. I cant see him winning but he would be my idea of a place horse. Valseur Lido is another Mullins horse although this time in the Gigginstown colours. His form is worth diddly squat but visually he looks he could be a surprise contender. He jumped well enough, travelled powerfully and quickens like a nice prospect. The Betfair market makes me a little bit dubious about his likely participation but if there was going to be a surprise winner I wouldnt be astonished if it was him. Whilst I have rubbished the form, 2 of the placed horses could suggest he is around a 140 horse, which wouldnt put him too far off the frame given he is likely to improve a fair bit having only had 2 starts over hurdles so far. Vaniteux ran well enough at Donny over 20f but he doesnt strike me as a Surpreme horse as Im not sure he has that real turn of foot over this trip against some serious rivals. He doesnt stirke me as the fluentest of jumpers either. Gilgamboa is a big sort and beat Flaxen Flare in a handicap LTO. FF travelled the best but didnt find an awful lot and I dont think Gilgamboa had to do too much to win it given the difference in weights. He just doesnt strike me as the type to win this off level weights. The Liquidator won two races with ease in the middle of the season, but he didnt find an awful lot in the Champion Bumper and he didnt truly quicken in the bumper at Punchestown either. He plugged on too much for my liking and whilst Scu more than likely went too quick LTO it didnt really change my opinion that he wont find as much as the others. Im not sure who else is definitely going to run just yet, but Splash Of Ginge doesn't look good enough on these terms and Wilde Blue Yonder doesnt look classy enough and also doesnt know how to jump the last. Although FWIW there might not be any point in reading this because I've not managed to pick the winner of the this yet in 4 attempts (although I have placed with Spirit Son and Jezki). :eek

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle I have looked at a couple of these in a little more detail since last night and I would now say that I dont think there is much chance that Valseur Lido is going to be a potential winner of this race. I think I gave him too much credit when watching the races back and he would have to improve a hell of a lot to win. Vaniteux is now expected to head to Aintree. Irving looks impressive but he is too short for me now. There could be a train of thought that Josses Hill might improve given the relative stable form at the time, but Im not sure I buy into that. Wicklow Brave still doesnt convince me and after watching the bumper race between him and Western Boy the more I think the latter could be the value of the race. Wicklow Brave had been running through the summer and was already race fit for their encounter and despite being about 3l ahead of Western Boy rounding the home turning and quickening clear, Western Boy was coming back to him at the line and given the track that day was sharp and on good ground, I think that form could have been reversed had it been run over slightly further. I dont really know much about the trainer and he has only had one runner over here in the last 5 years and that was at Aintree and in a bumper. As it stands now I would be looking to back Vautour for the win (around 7/2) and Western Boy EW (mid 20's on Betfair win market - 18/1 at a bookies).

[tgc100969]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Mullins 1-2 for me in this one, which will set the scene for a massive week for this stable. I prefer Vautour to Wicklow Brave but I will back both and reverse the forecast. Irving is the pick of the rest but his price is poor considering the strength of the Mullins two

[Steven6177]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Do like nicholls but fav hasn't won this in 8 years,so maybe a improving sort that shows lots of improvement wil win this,with a sp of 5/1 or more,but knowing what's been trained just for this,is the magic question ;)

[cpo]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle I think its a nice race to start the festival as I don't see it being that competitive. For me I will be concentrating on those at the head of the betting and will probably have to toss up between whatever Mullins leaves in the race. Nicky Henderson hasn't got the greatest recent record in this and Tony McCoy's is even worse having been beaten on the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Darlan and My Tent or Yours! Probably end up siding with Vautour who comes into the race having won the Deloitte just as Champagne Fever did last year and he may just outbattle the speedier types.

[Binchy]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Wicklow Brave fits the majority of the trends for me.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Heard a good point from a decent tipster the other day about this race. Bookies will always try and lure you in with offers for this race and the AB because they hope it can set them up for the whole week (or longer). It wouldnt surprise me to see them really go after one of the front two in the market and it also wouldnt surprise me if they went either 1-4 place terms (I think PP are money back if you finish in the 1st 4 already).

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Feeling this comes down to how the race is run. If Ruby and Vautour are allowed to dictate from the front as was the case against The Tullow Tank, I can't see something getting passed it. There is an argument that TTT does need further though, so the form of that race should be taken with slight doubt. Irving's turn of foot is indeed impressive, and while I don't quite like the whole 'won't get up the hill argument' as it often seems like the bail out analysis option, it feels like a similar story we had with Dynaste in that we'll see a horse that's been hugely impressive all season not take to the track. Wicklow Brave is a name that keeps coming up, and while i've only seen him once, he never showed anything in that outing to make me think 'Star'. That's likely an incredibly unfair and uninformed analysis of the horse's chances though. For what it's worth, this race i'm only semi-actively involved in (multiples), since it's a bit of a mystery box. At the prices, I don't fancy AP's ride, partly on account of horse, partly on account of Ruby beating AP in a couple tight finishes this year. Starting to wonder if he's got the voodoo sign over everyone's favourite grafter. Josses Hill is interesting, but for my money, must show significant improvement to get on terms. While the horse has the scope to do so, I don't feel that in this race and at this track you improve into a superstar, it's the race and track to showcase how far you've come. The Liquidator is interesting, but is far too much of a potential flop for my liking.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle supreme novices hurdle vautour 97 Wicklow brave 95 irving 92 gilgamboa 91 western boy 91 bookies seem to have this race sealed tight from a punting point of view ..........overall vautour has the fastest time on the clock and looks as if the stiff Cheltenham course should suit .........closely followed by Wicklow brave ........Wicklow brave looks to have a similar profile to cinders and ashes so has to have the utmost respect .........although personally I think vautour looks a little stronger .........irving is improving in leaps and bounds but hasn't posted times anywhere near the calibre of the top two rated yet so in my eyes will have to improve again and run much faster than hes ever ran which is a worry for a 5/2 fav in this race so for me theres no value in his price ..........in my eyes vautour should be fav .............those looking for outsiders could do worse than back either gilgamboa or western boy at big prices 14-16/1 ......both are improving types and western boy has done absolutely nothing wrong to date only being beaten by vautour earlier in the year ...........slight worry about the layoff (60 days ) but not the end of the world and if vautour does turn out to be the real deal then don't be surprised if western boy isn't far behind again ........gilgamboa is stepping up from hcap level so is playing with the big boys now but his time was on a par with a good grade 2 so wont to have improve much to figure in this race ......warrants respect overall I think VAUTOUR is the one they all have to beat .....he has a fast cruising speed and will not lack for stamina so has all the weapons you need in this tough race ...........Wicklow brave and gilgamboa can follow him home

[Aidymac]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle(Grade 1) (1) 2m 110yds The Paul Nicholls trained Irving heads the betting at 11/4 with Coral and the 6 year old gelding has done nothing but impress this season. He won a Grade 2 at Ascot back in December by 6 lengths with Splash Of Ginge 6 lengths behind in 3rd. He looked impressive last time out at Kempton also but I think it is a slight worry that the horse has never run at Cheltenham before. The Willie Mullins trained Vautour will be trying to set the pace, travel strongly and get the field off the bridle turning for home. He looked very impressive over 2m2f at Leopardstown when beating The Tullow Tank last time out and has a big chance here at 7/2 with Coral. I will be having a small each-way bet on Garde La Victoire here though as I had him as a 16/1 chance in my book. Garde La Victoire - 1 Point each-way @ 33/1 Betfred (4 Places) Read Full Preview @ http://www.horse-racing.org/supreme-novice-hurdle-betting-garde-la-victoire-to-run-a-big-race-at-big-odds

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle

As it stands now I would be looking to back Vautour for the win (around 7/2) and Western Boy EW (mid 20's on Betfair win market - 18/1 at a bookies).

Still sticking with these two now. Western Boy is a huge price IMO given the EW terms and offers available. I just get the feeling that he is going to relish coming up that hill.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle I have two whispers for this race,Josies Hill and Westerns Boy.Sorry don't know of their chances,I am a watcher of cheltenham,rarely Back.Good luck all..

[smith17]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle 1.30 Cheltenham: Vautour, 7/2 >Boylesports, win Vautour is unbeaten in three runs since moving to Ireland from France and joining Willie Mullins' stable. First up, he won a 30-runner maiden at Navan. He was just behind the leaders and made good progress after 4 out while still firmly on the bridle. He got to the lead before the last and was gently pushed out to win comfortably by 5½L from Lieutenant Colonel, who won very easily nto and is entered in the Neptune tomorrow. Vautour then went to Punchestown where he won a grade 2, with the re-opposing Western Boy in second. He went to the lead before the last. He was headed after it but he showed a great attitude to battle back and win by ¾L. Lto, he won the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown, the same race that Champagne Fever won before winning this race last year. He put in a great performance beating dual Grade 1 winner The Tullow Tank by 3L with a further 12L back to third place. His jumping has been impeccable to date and, as this is sure to be run at a good pace, his proven stamina is a big plus. The ground should be ideal. Ruby Walsh chooses to ride him over Wicklow Brave which is a tip in itself.

[Lodge]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle I can't help but think Western Boy looks value @ 25/1. He got within less than a length of Vatour last time who is 3/1, Vatour probably won with a little in hand at the line but i see no reason why he wouldn't go close against him again. His jumping would need to improve but his last run was only his 2nd start and I also get the feeling the slightly better ground would suit him. His trainer has given him a short break since, saying that he wants to come into this fresh. This isn't a betting race for me really but thought i'd have something for a bit of interest with the PP offer.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle 1.30 - 2pts win Vautour @ 4/1 (Bet365) Looks a class act and well worth his place towards the head of the market. Has thrived since joining Willie Mullins and has barely put a foot wrong yet. So far has been an assured jumper who has a good cruising speed and can knuckle down/find off the bridle which is likely to be crucial in this race. Form has substance too having seen off The Tullow Tank readily last time out without having to really get down to business and showed his battling qualities when beating Western Boy narrowly two starts back. The test should suit and the way he moves gives me no concern over the quicker ground. His form stacks up, he jumps well, travels well and finds off the bridle so fingers crossed can give us a good start to the week.

[santos_]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Irving has looked good and I have backed him his last few runs but the faves do have a poor record in this and I'm not sure how deep his races have been. Gilgamboa is the one who really interested me I thought he looks the right sort for this (so do many) but the way he won lto and how he ran made me think he'll be suited by a race like this. Splash of Ginge won at Newbury but would need to raise his game here but at the price he may sneak into things. Gilgamboa win 10/1 and Splash of Ginge e/w 33/1

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle Get in there Ruby! Excellent ride to dictate that from start to finish.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle

supreme novices hurdle vautour 97 Wicklow brave 95 irving 92 gilgamboa 91 western boy 91 bookies seem to have this race sealed tight from a punting point of view ..........overall vautour has the fastest time on the clock and looks as if the stiff Cheltenham course should suit .........closely followed by Wicklow brave ........Wicklow brave looks to have a similar profile to cinders and ashes so has to have the utmost respect .........although personally I think vautour looks a little stronger .........irving is improving in leaps and bounds but hasn't posted times anywhere near the calibre of the top two rated yet so in my eyes will have to improve again and run much faster than hes ever ran which is a worry for a 5/2 fav in this race so for me theres no value in his price ..........in my eyes vautour should be fav .............those looking for outsiders could do worse than back either gilgamboa or western boy at big prices 14-16/1 ......both are improving types and western boy has done absolutely nothing wrong to date only being beaten by vautour earlier in the year ...........slight worry about the layoff (60 days ) but not the end of the world and if vautour does turn out to be the real deal then don't be surprised if western boy isn't far behind again ........gilgamboa is stepping up from hcap level so is playing with the big boys now but his time was on a par with a good grade 2 so wont to have improve much to figure in this race ......warrants respect overall I think VAUTOUR is the one they all have to beat .....he has a fast cruising speed and will not lack for stamina so has all the weapons you need in this tough race ...........Wicklow brave and gilgamboa can follow him home

off to a flyer .................big double now on with our conor in champion ive got 7/s on vautour and 7/1 and our conor .........so looking at big payout if hes wins champion now ...cmon me beauty !!!!!

[arsenalfh]

Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle

Get in there Ruby! Excellent ride to dictate that from start to finish.

Yeah, great stuff. Been a fan for a while but this is the first time I've backed him and what a win that was for Mullins and Ruby.