Torque Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I've developed a rating system for the Premier League which I've been running for the last few weeks with some success, and so I thought I would start to post selections and see if it holds its own between now and the end of the season, by which time I should be able to draw some meaningful conclusions about how well the system works. What I'm looking for is teams whose form my system suggests is better than their results, and if a team fits this criteria then I will lay their opposition using Betfair. This will be a high turnover system, and my approach is underpinned by an assumption that not every lay will represent value - this is because I think it's very hard to accurately model football matches due to the high number of variables. The idea is for more of the lays to be value than not, and in this way a profit will hopefully be achieved. In my opinion, more or less, most of the relevant information about a match is incorporated into the prices set by the bookmakers and so my edge, if I have one, will come from factors outside of those taken into consideration when they set their lines. I'll be laying to a fixed stake of one unit, meaning that the profit from each winning pick will be the same but the liability will change depending on the price. Generally I will post new picks and settle old ones the night before matches will be played, so I'll look at Sunday's games tomorrow. Hopefully that's everything covered, and I'll post tomorrow's matches next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays ?Lays for 11.01.14 Fulham @ 2.20 Tottenham @ 1.42 Southampton @ 1.89 Man Utd @ 1.62 Chelsea @ 1.64 Everton @ 1.41 Cardiff @ 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays ?Lays for 11.01.14 Fulham @ 2.20 +0.95 Tottenham @ 1.42 -0.42 Southampton @ 1.89 -0.89 Man Utd @ 1.62 -0.62 Chelsea @ 1.64 -0.64 Everton @ 1.41 -0.41 Cardiff @ 2.02 +0.95 Daily Profit/Loss: -1.08 Total Profit/Loss: -1.08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 12.01.14 Man City @ 1.67 Stoke @ 6.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 12.01.14 Man City @ 1.67 -0.67 Stoke @ 6.40 +0.95 Daily Profit/Loss: +0.28 Total Profit/Loss: -0.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 13.01.14 Arsenal @ 1.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 13.01.14 Arsenal @ 1.52 -0.52 Daily Profit/Loss: -0.52 Total Profit/Loss: -1.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 18.01.14 West Ham @ 3.20 Sunderland @ 3.10 Man City @ 1.15 Liverpool @ 1.24 Stoke @ 3.65 Arsenal @ 1.24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 18.01.14 West Ham @ 3.20 +0.95 Sunderland @ 3.10 +0.95 Man City @ 1.15 -0.15 Liverpool @ 1.24 +0.95 Stoke @ 3.65 +0.95 Arsenal @ 1.24 -0.24 Daily Profit/Loss: +3.41 Total Profit/Loss: +2.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 19.01.14 Man Utd @ 5.80 Tottenham @ 2.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 19.01.14 Man Utd @ 5.80 +0.95 Tottenham @ 2.44 -1.44 Daily Profit/Loss: -0.49 Total Profit/Loss: +1.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 20.01.14 ?Everton @ 2.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 20.01.14 ?Everton @ 2.22 +0.95 Daily Profit/Loss: +0.95 Total Profit/Loss: +2.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 28.01.14 Fulham @ 5.80 Arsenal @ 2.06 Newcastle @ 2.50 Man Utd @ 1.27 Crystal Palace @ 2.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 28.01.14 Fulham @ 5.80 +0.95 Arsenal @ 2.06 +0.95 Newcastle @ 2.50 +0.95 Man Utd @ 1.27 -0.27 Crystal Palace @ 2.58 -1.58 Daily Profit/Loss: +1.00 Total Profit/Loss: +3.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 29.01.14 Tottenham @ 4.10 Sunderland @ 2.10 West Ham @ 23.00 Aston Villa @ 2.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 29.01.14 Tottenham @ 4.10 +0.95 Sunderland @ 2.10 -1.10 West Ham @ 23.00 +0.95 Aston Villa @ 2.64 -1.64 Daily Profit/Loss: -0.84 Total Profit/Loss: +2.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 01.02.14 West Ham @ 2.94 Man Utd @ 1.61 Sunderland @ 4.40 Tottenham @ 2.18 Fulham @ 3.65 Aston Villa @ 7.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 01.02.14 West Ham @ 2.94 -1.94 Man Utd @ 1.61 +0.95 Sunderland @ 4.40 -3.40 Tottenham @ 2.18 +0.95 Fulham @ 3.65 +0.95 Aston Villa @ 7.40 +0.95 Daily Profit/Loss: -1.54 Total Profit/Loss: +1.17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 02.02.14 Liverpool @ 1.64 Arsenal @ 1.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 02.02.14 Liverpool @ 1.64 +0.95 Arsenal @ 1.26 -0.26 Daily Profit/Loss: +0.69 Total Profit/Loss: +1.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 03.02.14 ?Man City @ 1.89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 03.02.14 ?Man City @ 1.89 +0.95 Daily Profit/Loss: +0.95 Total Profit/Loss: +2.81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 08.02.14 Cardiff @ 4.90 Sunderland @ 2.18 Stoke @ 8.60 Man City @ 1.38 Arsenal @ 3.55 Crystal Palace @ 2.68 Chelsea @ 1.26 West Ham @ 4.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 08.02.14 Cardiff @ 4.90 +0.95 Sunderland @ 2.18 +0.95 Stoke @ 8.60 + 0.95 Man City @ 1.38 +0.95 Arsenal @ 3.55 + 0.95 Crystal Palace @ 2.68 -1.68 Chelsea @ 1.26 -0.26 West Ham @ 4.00 -3.00 Daily Profit/Loss: -0.19 Total Profit/Loss: +2.62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 09.02.14 Man Utd @ 1.23 Tottenham @ 2.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 09.02.14 Man Utd @ 1.23 +0.95 Tottenham @ 2.22 -1.22 Daily Profit/Loss: -0.27 Total Profit/Loss: +2.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 11.02.14 West Ham @ 2.10 Chelsea @ 1.53 Hull @ 3.10 Aston Villa @ 3.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 11.02.14 West Ham @ 2.10 -1.10 Chelsea @ 1.53 +0.95 Hull @ 3.10 +0.95 Aston Villa @ 3.20 +0.95 Daily Profit/Loss: +1.75 Total Profit/Loss: +4.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Re: Torque's Premier League Lays Lays for 12.02.14 Stoke @ 2.72 Sunderland @ 22.00 Liverpool @ 1.44 Crystal Palace @ 9.20 Arsenal @ 2.22 Tottenham @ 2.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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