Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov.

[BillyHills]

Any thoughts or opinions on what should be a cracking race on Saturday; 5 day Decs;

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Latest Odds;

[Aidymac]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. At the moment I quite like the chances of Silviniaco Conti. Won this easily last year, thought he travelled better than Bob's Worth in the Gold Cup when he came to a crashing fall. Nicholl's horses seem to be just coming into form now, and I am sure the main target for Bob is the Gold Cup.. My opinion could change come race-day though.

[mowgli77]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. At the prices that Billyhills has posted I'd probably be taking Bobs Worth, think he's just another level to the opposition. I like Silviniaco Conti but I'm not convinced by some of his form. He won this race last year in what was a dire renewal and a 2 horse race with no one wanting to make the running. Fair play to Ruby Walsh as he set the pace, jumped well and then held off Long Run who clearly needed the run. The form of his Charlie Hall chase win is poor (142 rated horse in 2nd) and the grade 2 win at Newbury was against oppsition just short of grade 1 class. The Giant Bolster surely has no chance but might run a decent race and grab a place. I'm not convinced by Dynaste and on figures he has to find 21lb to beat Bobs Worth, a huge ask. I'm not sure Cue Card will get the trip but if he does he's a live danger but that question mark has to be asked with foresight and not hindsight. The one that could just bring the house down at around 9-1 is Tidal Bay. He may be 12 years old but he has been rejuvenated under Paul Nicholls and is actually on a career high chase mark of 171 despite being 12 years old. He was superb in the Lexus last season and won over hurdles under new partner Sam Twiston Davies who looks like he could get the ride again at the weekend. Bobs Worth and Tidal Bay for me.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. I would prefer Silvianaco Conti over the other runners from last years Gold Cup purely because I can imagine Nicholls will be determined to get this one under his belt ahead of Henderson. Im not sure what to make of Long Run and Bobs Worth would prefer a stiffer test (same applies to Tidal Bay). Im not sure the Hendersob yard is firing on all cylinders just yet either. Cue Card could be a very interesting runner although I have not convinced myself that he stays the trip just yet. Im not sure what to make of Roi Du Me's last run but you could rule him out if you take the form literally.

[joeblitz]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Silvianaco Conti - all the way. Nicholls also has a fantastic record in the race. With the Gold Cup in March I doubted very much whether Bobs Worth will be 100% fit. He did win the Hennessy fto last year but Gold Cup winners (Kauto Star) excepted have a reputation for never or rarely winning again. The Gold Cup seems to take an awful lot out of them and yeah I know the other Henderson Gold Cup winner did win the King George last year. Cue Card doesnt stay imo and Roi Du Mee is not good enough. Dynaste could be the danger as a park track maybe what he wants. But my opinion is Silvianaco Conti

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Love the horse to bits but am not sure what Mr Tizzard is thinking about running Cue Card, ok he made a bad mistake in the King George but does he really get this trip ? i think they are making a bad mistake. Paul Nicholls even without Ruby looks very dangerous this season, he's hit the ground running, we will never know how our money would have ended up had SC stayed on his feet in the Gold Cup, the same as a few of the members my cash was down and ended up blowing on sore fingers again, the 9/4 is drawing me in like a moth to a bright light with Bobs Worth, will feel dirty not sticking with my pal Cue card but feel it would be turning good money into bad. Might take out a cheeky bit of insurance ''E/W'' on The Giant Bolster, 16/1 looks worth a wee side bet, anything can happen at this stage. ​Bobs Worth for me.

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. 10 declared but only 5 with a chance in my opinion. Conti and Tidal Bay have to be respected for Nicholls, I thought Conti was very good first time out last year at Wetherby and beat a half fit Long Run in this race later. His form definitely tailed off so maybe needs to be fresh and if he ever going to beat Bobs Worth then maybe this is it? Tidal Bay is an old fav of mine but i doubt whether he's good enough to be perfectly honest, yes he did win at Wetherby but scraped home from handicappers that day and this is much tougher, i cant argue with the Lexus or Hennessy form from last year though and would love him to win, i just don't see it somehow and would prefer he went the Hennessy route as he can carry big weights against inferior horses. Dynaste and Cue Card are the most interesting runners if they line up for me. Cue Card can be brilliant on his day but still dives at the odd fence and we don't really know if he stays despite connections telling us he will. That's two slight negatives and probably two too many for a race like this. Dynaste was impressive early on last season and probably another one who is best when fresh, he must have been showing something at home for them to pass up on the Paddy Power last weekend as i reckon that was there for the taking. The track will suit and travels well and wouldn't be at all surprised if he went close. I don't think Long Run will run although the Waley-Cohen bunch make the decisions and they do tend to think they have a world beater so could be tempted, if i was them i'd wait for something easier before Kempton at xmas as he won't beat his stablemate off level weights, i'll eat hay with a donkey if he does! Bobs Worth is the class act and won the Hennessy last year first time out off a big weight so i'm not too fussed about that, the yard have had a few disappointments but also had good winners so you cant draw any conclusions there either. I think its best just to judge him on his merits and the fact is that he's the best chaser we have got at the moment. One thing that is niggling me and thats he seems to run much better at Cheltenham than anywhere else. He was originally going to run in the Charlie Hall until Haydock announced that they were switching tracks due to drainage problems, it means its not so sharp now and a furlong further which all of a sudden suits Bobs Worth much better. I don't like it when they switch plans or feel forced to run and thats my only worry, the track. If this was at Cheltenham he would be Even money and i would be on for sure. In conclusion i like Dynaste at the prices at the moment but i just hope most of them end up running and we don't get a 4 horse race like many of these big races end up.

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Some Stats to chew over; From these figures you can work out the trends quite easily; Last 8 years Running of the Betfair Chase (Established in 2005) Ratings for this years runners;

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov.

10 declared but only 5 with a chance in my opinion. Conti and Tidal Bay have to be respected for Nicholls, I thought Conti was very good first time out last year at Wetherby and beat a half fit Long Run in this race later. His form definitely tailed off so maybe needs to be fresh and if he ever going to beat Bobs Worth then maybe this is it? Tidal Bay is an old fav of mine but i doubt whether he's good enough to be perfectly honest, yes he did win at Wetherby but scraped home from handicappers that day and this is much tougher, i cant argue with the Lexus or Hennessy form from last year though and would love him to win, i just don't see it somehow and would prefer he went the Hennessy route as he can carry big weights against inferior horses. Dynaste and Cue Card are the most interesting runners if they line up for me. Cue Card can be brilliant on his day but still dives at the odd fence and we don't really know if he stays despite connections telling us he will. That's two slight negatives and probably two too many for a race like this. Dynaste was impressive early on last season and probably another one who is best when fresh, he must have been showing something at home for them to pass up on the Paddy Power last weekend as i reckon that was there for the taking. The track will suit and travels well and wouldn't be at all surprised if he went close. I don't think Long Run will run although the Waley-Cohen bunch make the decisions and they do tend to think they have a world beater so could be tempted, if i was them i'd wait for something easier before Kempton at xmas as he won't beat his stablemate off level weights, i'll eat hay with a donkey if he does! Bobs Worth is the class act and won the Hennessy last year first time out off a big weight so i'm not too fussed about that, the yard have had a few disappointments but also had good winners so you cant draw any conclusions there either. I think its best just to judge him on his merits and the fact is that he's the best chaser we have got at the moment. One thing that is niggling me and thats he seems to run much better at Cheltenham than anywhere else. He was originally going to run in the Charlie Hall until Haydock announced that they were switching tracks due to drainage problems, it means its not so sharp now and a furlong further which all of a sudden suits Bobs Worth much better. I don't like it when they switch plans or feel forced to run and thats my only worry, the track. If this was at Cheltenham he would be Even money and i would be on for sure. In conclusion i like Dynaste at the prices at the moment but i just hope most of them end up running and we don't get a 4 horse race like many of these big races end up.

Got in some hay and a few people are getting back to me about the Donkey, you never know, seen worse on You Tube.

[Toast]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Took 20/1 each way Roi Du Mee, in the hope that the race will cut up and he does make the trip. In his favour are a front runner on a suitable course on ground that will be a lot slower than the official gd/sf. Finally got his act together at Down Royal and looks more than capable of improving again on that grade 1 win. He has fitness on his side, which most of the others do not. Of the rest, Dynaste could be a contender, but IMO, he will be tenderly handled with a view to the more suitable kempton. Cue Card will not stay in that ground, Bobs Worth will not be knocked about with Cheltenham being his main target, Conti for the forecast, but I don't have him as a top class grade 1 nag atm? Long Run is finished and is another example of how Henderson can knacker a chaser when it's run a dozen times or more. The Giant Bolster needs Cheltenham and not a sharp ish flat left handed course, and if Tidal Bay wins, I'm giving the game up. Flattered at Wetherby and is too old for a grade 1 winner. In all match fitness wins the race on that ground.

[mowgli77]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Thanks for those stats Billyhills. They give a somewhat skewed look at the race due to one horse - Kauto Star. He won the race aged 6,7,9 and 11 and also counts for 4 of 5 Nicholls wins in this race in recent times. I'd argue that he doesn't have another Kauto Star in his stable or anything close to that. People are mentioning Bobs Worth main target being the Gold Cup but the same can be said for most of these rivals who will all probably end up at Cheltenham for a main race in March, although I'd expect Cue Card to end up in the Ryanair. This is November, plenty of time for a horse to recover by March and Henderson said he would get an extra run or two into Bobs Worth this season before the Gold Cup if he could. Those RPR's are interesting, the lowest recently being 173 of Silviniaco Conti last season. Dynaste is rated 172 RPR and there are 3 others below on less ratings. Tidal Bay does look too old but I wouldn't expect many horses to improve on ratings like he has in the last few years and wouldn't write him off completely. Pipe and Mullins are the in form trainers, Fehily looks to be the in form jockey. The race fit horse many seem to be overlooking (including me) is Long Run and he could be a different sort with a run under his belt now. I really didn't expect it to run here and thought he'd go straight to Kempton, he still might. If Cue Card was to stay he'd have a huge chance but 2m4f looks ideal really.

Took 20/1 each way Roi Du Mee, in the hope that the race will cut up and he does make the trip.

That could be a very shrewd bet come Saturday, the form of beating Sizing Europe might not look much when we know SE doesn't get 3m but First Lieutenant was also in that race, they are rated 169 and 170 and he has hammered them both and is race fit. Seems consistent so the each way makes perfect sense, could maybe even place if they all turn up. I saw the race described as a mini gold cup without Sir Des Champs, let's hope it lives up to the hype. :ok

[Leedsmycrispsalone]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Cue Card coughed last Thursday and was not going to run. But Colin phoned Saturday and told us he seems much better so down to run if ground does not get to heavy. More hopeful than confident.

[Toast]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Totally threw it down all night and this morning with more heavy showers throughout the day to come. Really is quite miserable around here ATM. Next 3 days forecast sunshine though with a slight frost at night, which, at this time of year, will make the ground very holding. Read yesterday that Haydock are racing on the outside course which will add 1f to the race and the fences will be stiffer than they have been in the past few years.

[mowgli77]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Bought a Weekender at lunch, both Paul Kealy and Nick Mordin go for Cue Card in the Betfair Chase.

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov.

Read yesterday that Haydock are racing on the outside course which will add 1f to the race and the fences will be stiffer than they have been in the past few years.

Its been public knowledge for months about the new distance due to drainage problems at Haydock which is why Bobs Worth switched from the Charlie Hall as they think it will suit him better now on this course. Hence in my post i wrote;

He was originally going to run in the Charlie Hall until Haydock announced that they were switching tracks due to drainage problems, it means its not so sharp now and a furlong further which all of a sudden suits Bobs Worth much better. I don't like it when they switch plans or feel forced to run and thats my only worry, the track. If this was at Cheltenham he would be Even money and i would be on for sure.

Changed the going to Soft today and also heard Tidal Bay may wait for the Hennessy, along with the other post about Cue Card lets hope they all don't start pulling out, we should know more tomorrow lunch time, fingers crossed.

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Your right about the stats Phil, you can make them say what you want. As in all trends, which is whys its important to know the last 8 years results, so often not published by these trend experts and they just quote blindly on the numbers. Without all the facts you could say Paul Nicholls has a great record in the race, but in actual fact Kauto Star had a great record in the race and that is just one example.

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Latest on the Exchanges

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Paul Nicholls announced that Tidal Bay is a definite runner on Twitter tonight!! :nana Better get me tickets sorted!

[mowgli77]

Not sure if you've seen the current offer BH? @HAYDOCKRACES: The Jockey Club; formed 1750. Special offer £17.50 Tatts tickets for #BetfairChase (Sat 23 Nov) Use code BCTW13 @ http://t.co/oYUK5T7Tfv. RT

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Looks like 8 stand their ground Just Cloudy Too and Prince De Beauchene pulled out :ok

[Toast]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. The first rule of betting I have is to only bet a horse that is proven under the race conditions, ie, proven in class, distance and going. It's not my idea and may seem myopic to some, but it generally narrows the field down. Take my selection, Roi Du Mee. Proven in grade 1, proven on soft ground, proven over distance. Racing between september and November, his form reads 2416f321211. Racing at 21f and more, 11171535811111121. Racing with 8 runners or less 242153211512535111211f21. When the 3 are married together, it reads 3212111. Also worth pointing out that he's had 36 career runs and remarkably, he is improving. He has won 7 of his last 10 runs. His defeats being either on good ground or at Gowran Park, where it seems he does not like the chase course. He may not be the best horse in the race, but he's proven under race conditions, is running under his optimum conditions and is race fit. Trainer is in form and jockey is 1/1 on him. Good luck if following.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Never thought id see 12/1 on long run in a Chase, just shows you how things can pan out. Still say Mr Tizzard is making a mistake running Cue Card, hate seeing a horse being pushed a little far, Mmmmmmm, time will tell.

[Trotter]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Not very original but I can't see past Bobs Worth to win at 5/2 bog bet365 He's the best chaser in the country and the new track at haydock plays into his hands as it's more of a stamina test than in recent years. He's best left handed (unbeaten in 7 runs on left handed tracks) and acts on soft going. He's won first time out every season since he went over hurdles/fences Don't think the track and going will suit Silviniaco and there's still a doubt over Long Run. Cue card doesn't strike me as a stayer. It's a big step up for Dynaste out of novice company For the places I'd be looking to Roi de Mee EW at 20/1 bog betvictor Tidal bay EW at 8/1 bog bog betvictor

[Aidymac]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. I have backed Silviniaco Conti myself just now at 11/4 with Bet365. Can't for the life of me think why you feel the track won't suit and the going won't either Trotter? He won this race last year, albeit on the inner track. And he is a French bred horse so soft is always going to suit.. He won the Denman Chase at Newbury on soft ground by 7 lengths and beat Captain Chris by 10 lengths on soft ground back in 2010..

[Trotter]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov.

I have backed Silviniaco Conti myself just now at 11/4 with Bet365. Can't for the life of me think why you feel the track won't suit and the going won't either Trotter? He won this race last year, albeit on the inner track. And he is a French bred horse so soft is always going to suit.. He won the Denman Chase at Newbury on soft ground by 7 lengths and beat Captain Chris by 10 lengths on soft ground back in 2010..

Well obviously a lot of it is intuition but I'm looking at the extra furlong, the soft ground, the more galloping track and the presence of some Grade 1 front runners who will make it a real test of stamina at a fast pace. It's not so much the soft ground as 'the soft ground on a testing track' His win in this last year was a small field and slow pace which turned into a sprint finish and he outsprinted Long Run I'm looking at him as a 'speed horse' at around 3 miles not a stayer and I think the race tomorrow will suit a stayer I expect Silviniaco to fall at one of the later fences.........:loon

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Great to see 8 runners and we should get a proper race. I think the ground has gone against Cue Card over this trip where as it will give Tidal Bay a chance of hitting the frame. I still think Dynaste is the dark horse and the value at the prices and can see him running a personal best, which i know he has to to have any chance. Bobs Worth to me is an out and out stayer and i'm not sure they will go quick enough to suit him and if it does turn into a sprint from the top of the straight he may find the line coming just too soon. Still think he will win at Cheltenham no matter what happens here. Conti needs to improve on last years performance here to win but wouldn't rule him out on what should be a terrific contest. 2pts EW Dynatse 6/1 betfred

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. My final ratings have come out as follows: Bobs Worth 180+ Cue Card 175+ Tiday Bay 170-175 Long Run 170 Silvianaco Conti 170 Dynaste 160 Bobs Worth is a little short for my liking and the trip track might be a little sharp as he only gets going in the last couple of furlongs of 27f races. Cue Card is a doubtful stayer but his trainer is adamant he will. He might be worth a small punt at the prices. Tidal Bay is a cracking horse, but again he will want every yard of this trip. Long Run is hard to assess but he is proven under these conditions and providing his well being is ok, he looks a massive price on reflection. Silvianaco Conti not exactly the easiest to assess but he hasnt really beaten that much when you consider he got the run of the race in this last year and he beat The Giant Bolster at Newbury on ground he (TGB) wouldnt have liked. I cant see Dynaste winning (sorry BH!) but his best form is on soft ground over this sort of trip so it will be interesting to see how he runs.

[Toast]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Looks like Haydock are at it again. That coc must be the worst of any courses. Looking at those times yesterday, cannot compare the chase course times due to the changes, but the times of the hurdle course indicate it is not far off good ground, or the distances are shorter than stated. Anyone who knows Haydock would say the latter. Be careful with the betting at this meeting.

[Leedsmycrispsalone]

Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. I think he stays 3 miles amazing ?