NH Novice Notebook (Finished)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 150 Newbury: Brother Brian 7/4 PP/Bv With Zulu Oscar just being pulled out this looks a match between Brother Brian and the Henderson horse Full Shift. I liked the way the Hughie Morrison horse ran on his debut at Ascot and then confirmed that promise with a win here at Newbury. That was a decent contest and i believe we have yet to see the 6yo's full potential. Being out of Presenting you would ideally want better ground but he coped ok at Ascot in the mud so will imagine he will be fine here unless the ground deteriorates and then i would expect him to be pulled out. Full Shift could be anything, he won at Newcastle when odds on by a half a length in a weak race so obviously needs to have improved no end to win this much better race. At the prices Brother Brian has to be the selection. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 340 Ludlow: Bilidn 7/2 BetVic/WH Bilidn made a nice start to her career over hurdles at Wincanton last month. She finished third to a Nicky Henderson mare and was just behind one from the Nicholls yard. They finished 11 lengths clear of the others and there doesn't appear to be anything wrong with the form. Ben de Haan does well with his limited numbers and looks to have the bottom one Princess Caetani to beat. That one has had three goes and been placed twice, her last run is respected and i don't think there is a lot between the pair. At the prices Bilidn looks the value and has more scope. She has won on soft ground so should get away with this heavy going. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 215 Musselburgh: Stephanie Frances 2/1 BetVic/Betfred Excellent mares hurdle up at Musselburgh with at least four promising novices going head to head. Brijomi Queen was my first thought when seeing the decs, she was quite impressive on her debut here and then went to Haydock for a Listed race, she failed to get involved that day and carries the penalty back in this grade. Knowing Nicky Richards he will want to get back to basics with her and should go well. Rathvawn Belle was on my list of horses to follow up the north after finishing second to the Richards horse here but ran poorly last time and i cant find any excuses so does that mean the Brijomi Queen form wasn't as good as i initially thought? McCain runs Cloudante who won a point and a bumper, she makes her debut over hurdles and will need to be useful to win first time up. Others to consider are Morning With Ivan who has been placed twice but O'Regan gets off her to ride the top one, and McCoy has been booked to ride one for David O'Meara who has yet to show the kind of form to win a race of this nature. The one i like overall is Stephanie Frances who travels up from the Dan Skelton yard, we all know the stable are in good form and most of his horse come on a lot for a run. She was backed into favouritism at Southwell for her debut and although she only finished fourth i reckon it was a very useful heat. She was up against the 'boys' that day and was going well until faltering from the last, i suspect she just needed it. The form looks very solid and even the fifth that day who was beaten out of sight has ran well since. This mare won a bumper at Punchestown beating a Mullins horse who has won 4 times since and is well regarded and i'll be surprised if she isn't a whole lot better than her Southwell form this time and that should be good enough to win this receiving weight from the likely favourite.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Very poor of late;:\

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 230 Wetherby: Tiqris 5/4 bet365/SJ Cracking novice hurdle and the front three in the betting can all go well. I agree with Corky that McCoy is here to ride Stonebrook and he jocks off Jason Maguire, bet that went down well. Anyway the horse has useful bumper form but will need to be spot on to beat Tiqris i feel. The Hobbs team are in fine form and have several good form lines with their novices this season and i think the race at Newbury where Tiqris was third is very useful form. Josses Hill won that day and Tiqris looked the main threat going to the last, he faded close home as he did the time before, both at Newbury. This track is not as tough as Newbury up the home straight and he could poach a lead and hold on this time. Secrete Stream won well last time is not out of it but his penalty makes life very difficult today up against two promising types. I'm treating it as 3 horse race and the fav does have the best chance at the weights and i'm hoping Stonebrook will just need the experience. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 255 Southwell: Grape Tree Flame 9/2 BetVic Going against the front two here with Peter Bowen's Grape Tree Flame. The 6yo mare was always going to want a stamina trip before she showed her best so didn't do too badly in three bumper races and made her debut over hurdles at Uttoxeter in the mud over 2m5f. That was a fair event with Wuff beating Allow Dallow and Cogry. The first and third have won since and the fifth has ran well too in a better race. The selection was 6th that day and after making headway weakened between the last two flights. The fav Comedinewithme has been second twice to the same horse who was well beaten last time out and the danger could be Floral Spinner who comes back from a break. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 4.20 Doncaster: Dakar Run 4/1 WH : Uppingham EW 10/1 bet365 Unfortunately two horses off the list clash today at Doncaster. Both Dakar Run and Uppingham go in the last race and conditions will suit both being over 2m3+f. It also includes a couple of very useful bumper horses in Call Me Vic and Sergeant Thunder and whatever the result it will be a race to look back at for future races as so many of these novice races at Doncaster are. For today i have to follow Dakar Run, its been a while since we saw him but needs decent ground so has been patiently waiting for good to soft at least and gets it today. A very good bumper winner and to be honest didn't think it would take him long to get off the mark over hurdles. Anyway he did improve on his second outing and the winner of that race Purple Bay is a fairly good yardstick. Uppingham definitely showed he can win a race when second here the other week and at the prices is worth an EW bet. 1.40 Doncaster: Area Fifty One 7/4 Bet365 The first novice race at Donny will be interesting as we see Area Fifty One make his hurdles debut for Nicky Henderson, a very expensive buy at the sales late last year and was rated 103 on the flat. The yard have a good record here with their novices and will be hard to beat. They take on another good ex-flat horse Dubai Prince who was very impressive on debut but then ran flat last time out, that was too bad to be true and we can expect better here on this ground. Varom is the one with form from the Nicholls yard but i wouldn't expect him to beat both of the others to be honest. On this occasion i'm siding with Area Fifty One, Henderson knows what it takes to win these heats and i do worry about some of Ferguson's horses who need everything to fall right quite often and a few look very keen and fragile for this game.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 12.40 Cheltenham: Goodwood Mirage 5/1 PP I'm going to Cheltenham tomorrow and obviously i'm very interested in the 2 novice races. The opener is a Triumph Hurdle trial and Goodwood Mirage from the notebook runs. He did a lot wrong on his debut but still managed to win and now goes up in class here. He won't find it easy but there are reasons why the top two in the market may be flattered and worth a bet at 5/1. The Nicholls horse was beaten here in December and then beat nothing at Kempton while Le Rocher won at Chepstow in very heavy ground which will have suited him, this will be different and Kentucky Hyden might get closer to him. 1pt win Red Sherlock runs in the Neptune trail and i'm looking forward to seeing him in the flesh. I respect Rathvinden also from the Mullins camp and we shouldn't write Creepy off just yet at a big price No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 110 Sedgefield: Oscar Tanner 3/1 Stan James/Boyles Not sure this will go ahead with the forecast but at least its the first race. Nice novice hurdle with two or three horses with similar form and the Pipe horse making the trip up for his debut. Obviously Great Choice has to be respected but i reckon if it was one of the yards better novices he would be odds on so i'll take a chance and oppose him today. Getabuzz is going the right way and won well last time but struggled off 106 before that so he may just need to find a few pounds with my selection Oscar Tanner who was second to Calculated Risk off 116. Warren Greatrex brings a bus load up from the south and Masquerade is worth a second look, he was a lucky winner at Bangor but was still running a nice race regardless but now has the penalty and i'm not sure he up to defying it here. Of the rags, Our Boy Ben and the Smith horse Maxed Out King could nick a place but don't look good enough overall. Oscar Tanner has yet to face heavy ground so thats a slight worry and if he can get his jumping right today he looks the one to beat. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Time for some more to follow; Jan 24th: Doncaster Call Me Vic (T.George) make no mistake this was a fair maiden hurdle and they backed Call Me Vic as though it was a certainty. He led from the off and looked all over the winner coming into the straight until Ferguson's flat recruit Rainbow Peak done him for toe close home. This was very encouraging and will soon be stepping up in trip i would imagine and as long as they don't aim too high too soon he should win next time. I do worry about the trainer at times as he has sent horses over fences too early in my opinion so lets hope he doesn't do it again with this 7yo. Jan 21st: Wetherby Stonebrook (D.McCain) never put in the race by McCoy on his first run over hurdles for JP McManus, if you didn't know you could be forgiven in thinking this was an O'Neill horse. Anyway he was 3rd to Faugheen at Punchestown and then won two bumpers at Carlisle. He will appreciate a longer trip and if they take their time with him he will be easy to place next time out and could turn out to be very useful.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 130 Ffos Las: Pure Science EW 5/1 SJ Going to give Pure Science another chance now he's dropping back in trip, he lost all chance last time when sweating up badly pre-race at Towcester and not surprisingly found little up that hill and faded. I am convinced this horse is much better than that and this is a drop in grade also. I'm going EW as its a bet to nothing and we have one or two unknown quantities in the race but if he settles he should show improved form and won't mind the ground. 0.50pts EW

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Update

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 230 Musselburgh: Broughton 5/4 bet365 A novice that went on to my list after finishing second to Fox Norton in a Grade 2 race at Doncaster on debut. That alone should be adequate here but will hopefully have improved for the experience. The track and ground will be ideal as he won't be overloaded with stamina being a 10f horse on the flat. Obviously any Henderson novice has to be respected travelling up her so the price has been kept sensible with Adeupas D'ycy in the field. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 145 Southwell: Flementime 5/6 SJ Im really confident about this mare, she was on my list of horses to follow after a good debut and was put in at the deep end at Warwick behind Glens Melody and Mischevious Milly and ran ok to two out. This is much much weaker and i'll be surprised if she cant put this lot away and to be honest thought she would be 4/7 so the odds on offer are fairly generous in my opinion. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 255 Carlisle: Brijomi Queen 13/8 SJ Going to take on the favourite Truckers Darling here with the Nicky Richards mare Brijomi Queen. She was on my list of novices to follow at one time and it can be said she has slightly disappointed in two subsequent starts. Anyway i think the step up in trip will suit and she won a bumper in heavy ground so maybe the run at Musselburgh last time wasn't that bad as it wouldn't have suited her. Denis O'Regan keeps the ride which is interesting and i reckon she is better than we have seen recently. 1pt win

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: NH Novice Notebook

255 Carlisle: Brijomi Queen 13/8 SJ Going to take on the favourite Truckers Darling here with the Nicky Richards mare Brijomi Queen. She was on my list of novices to follow at one time and it can be said she has slightly disappointed in two subsequent starts. Anyway i think the step up in trip will suit and she won a bumper in heavy ground so maybe the run at Musselburgh last time wasn't that bad as it wouldn't have suited her. Denis O'Regan keeps the ride which is interesting and i reckon she is better than we have seen recently. 1pt win

Mmmmm she will have to be at her best to beat the mare from Don Cantillon's yard, heard a whisper she has better to come. Best of luck.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Had a little luck on my side today G, lost count how many times in January i got beat on the run in, so i thought the same was going to happen again in the 2:55 Just held on, both good horses and both are now in the NB.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook *Mistake at the last cost me Jim, but thats how it goes mate, glad you had the winner. 250 Huntingdon: Alco Sivola EW 8/1 (bet365/Sky) Really good looking juvenile hurdle and Nick Williams has already shown he has some good youngsters this season from his connections in France. Alco Sivola ran a very pleasing debut at Newbury when 4th to the useful Dawalan, the second and third that day have since fought out the finish of a Wetherby race so the form stands up. He made several mistakes at Newbury yet still ran on in the closing stages and he will enjoy this very wet ground. He receives weight from most of the main rivals and probably has the Ferguson horse to fear Royal Skies but i think he will want it firmer to show his best. 0.50pts EW

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 200 Kempton: No Substitute EW 6/1 (SJ) This one went into the notebook after returning from an absence at Doncaster last month. He finished 7th to Oscar Hoof and ran well to a point. The King yard subsequently shut down suffering from a virus of some kind and now his horses are back running well although some may just need the first start. This horse is a 9yo so not the usual type to follow but he does have ability and could run into a place at least in this company before going chasing. 0.50pts EW

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 225 Exeter: Chocala 13/8 Laddies Nice little listed novice to look at. Chocala comes from the hot Newbury race which has seen the winner Calipto and the 4th Dawalan go on to much better things (2nd hasn't ran since). The selection was third that day and disputed the lead for much of the way. Alan King is back in form and has found a good opportunity here with the 4yo getting in with just 10st 7lbs and receiving a fair bit of weight from a all runners. The Nicholls horse look dangerous but he has yet to win in 5 starts over hurdles and looks worth opposing, Hint Of Mint won well last time but he has 11st 9lbs to carry and thats just too much to give Chocala surely? 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook

150 Ayr: Stonebrook 5/4 SJ One from my list of horses to follow Stonebrook was third at Punchestown and then moved to the McCains. Not long after JP McManus got involved and AP rode him for the first time at Wetherby last month. It was a strange ride but and never got going until it was too late and finished third to Tiqris. Obviously a sighter and now should push on and show us how good he is today. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Really struggling to find anything to recommend with so much bad ground at the moment. I thought i would be adding horses to the notebook a lot more than its turned out but i'm not going to stick things up for the sake of it. Anyway a couple for the notebook from Doncaster; Feb 6th : Doncaster Benzel (JJ O'Neill) This one only finished 5th but there was a lot to like about his debut run for the McManus team. It was a crawl of a pace and he was forced to make it and i'm not sure that was the plan. Anyway he jumped well and travelled nicely. I half expected him to fold up completely in the straight but he kept with the leading group and was only a few lengths behind the fancied stable mate Gone Too Far. With improvement and a kinder pace to settle behind i reckon he can pick up a similar event. Feb 6th: Doncaster First Mohican (A.King) Having his first run since switching from the flat this horse did the job nicely and with King's horses needing a run to put themselves right after the stable virus this was very encouraging. I wouldn't expect to see him on this horrible ground we have around the country so maybe will come back here for another run with a penalty. He will obviously be upped in class at some stage and could go to Cheltenham although Aintree would suit better in my opinion.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 210 Musselburgh: Plan Again 2/1 (BVic/PP) Looks a 2 horse race on form with the favourite being Fennell Bay trained by John Ferguson. He was tough as old boots on the level so should suit this jumping game and won easily in the end on his debut at Fakenham. He did worry me slightly part way through that race when he seemed to get out paced and may be worth taking on here on this speedy track. Plan Again is the obvious one to challenge the jolly. He won a point then a bumper (here at Muss) and then won his hurdle debut with the minimum of fuss. He will want further in time as he has loads of stamina so expect to see him try and make all here today, he is unexposed and just could be above average and represents the best value in this contest. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 320 Fakenham: Doctor Harper Evens (SJ) Might be on a rocker here as i'm not sure how this horse can be even money? As others have said he looks a good thing on form, he won two similar races to this at Exeter and then was stepped up in class at Cheltenham last time where come up against Ballyalton and Garde Le Victoire, both well above average novices. Timmy Murphy has had a lot to do with this horse in his early days and Scudamore rode him for the first time at Cheltenham, with Timmy still out injured TS gets the ride again and will probably know him better now. The King horse won well at Market Rasen and i know he thinks a bit of it but i cant help thinking he will struggle to beat Doctor Harper at these weights, also King likes to have runners at Fakenham and I'm not sure it will suit Saffron Wells as he looked a stayer at Leicester and this track requires speed. The drift is a big worry though? 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 4.05 Haydock: Oscar Rock 5/2 SpBet Ive always liked Oscar Rock and surprised he has been beaten twice this season to be honest. Anyway i have to follow him here over three miles for the first time as he was always going to make a stayer and next year will be even better over fences. He was third last time to a useful sort in a much better race so even a reproduction of that could be good enough in this field but i am confident he will improve for the extra distance and a decent bet at the odds. 1pt win 130 Ascot: Un Pour Tempts Tout 5/6 SJ Backed this one on his British debut but he found Zamdy Man too good on the day, thats not bad form as they finished clear of the others and he really should open his account in this company on a track he should like. Connections paid a fortune for this young horse and he needs to start paying his way. The top one Cole Harden is no mug but id be surprised if he beats the selection today. 1pt win 445 Wincanton: Fascino Rustico 5/4 Skybet Ran behind Briar Hill in the Champion Bumper and has been beaten twice over hurdles so far and now needs to show us how good he is. Looks to have found a nice opportunity here and his run on Boxing Day looks pretty good now with Sgt Reckless and Vaniteaux in behind who have both won. 1pt win 145 Haydock: Aurore Destruval 15/8 PP This filly receives an awful lot of weight from the top two who both carry double penalties and i liked the way she put the race to bed at Wetherby on her debut. It want a great race that day but i was impressed by her whole display and looked a very useful recruit. She needs to step up here in this much better company but i believe she can win this and go on to better things. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook

220 Ayr: Titus Bolt 5/6 Stan James Went off far too fast last time and paid for it in the closing stages, with a little more restraint he should be able to beat this field without much fuss. Han plenty of experience compared to some of these and goes ok on the ground. Trainer Jim Goldie rarely leaves Ayr without a winner also. 1pt win 340 Huntington: Carraig Mor 10/11 Bet365 Hosed up on his debut and then was surprisingly neaten next time out. Trainer Alan King thinks a lot of this one and now the stable are back in business he can be followed to regain his winning ways. Decent opposition in Mosspark which gives us a fair price. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Warwick 210: Cogry 5/6 bet365 Won well enough last time at Leicester and this looks easier even with a penalty. The Twiston-Davies team are in fine form with winners yesterday at Huntingdon and with the main principals not running now this should be a good opportunity to follow up. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 3.15 Kempton: Germany Calling EW 33/1 bet365 Germany Calling was put into the notebook back in October after running a very promising second to Lac Fontana, i expected him to come out and take an average novice hurdle somewhere but hasn't been seen since. He goes in the Dovecote at Kempton and while i'm sure he will find this very difficult i cant completely ignore him at 33/1 as i think he has a lot of ability. Irving should come out on top all things being equal and i quite fancy him for the Supreme at around 8/1. 0.50pts EW

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 205 Kempton: Activial 2/1bet365 Almost forgot about Activial, he went on the list after running behind Calipto at Newbury and came with a big reputation. Had a break and as with most Harry Fry runners wasn't allowed to run in bad ground. Its a bit better now and this track should suit and needs to put in a good performance here to go to Cheltenham in a couple of weeks. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Update;