NH Novice Notebook (Finished)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Notebook runner today;

1240 Leicester: Silsol 11/8 Bet365 Been waiting for Silsol to run ever since his debut at Aintree in a really decent novice hurdle. Garde Le Victoire and Regal Encore were first and second and both will figure in the big races in March so Silsol's 4th was a good effort when you look at this grade of race today. The Twiston-Davies horse won't let the selection have it all his own way and ran well here last month behind Dubai Prince. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 300 Huntingdon: Go West Young Man EW 14/1 BetVictor Cracking novice hurdle today at Huntingdon and the reappearance of Namibian after a long while off the track. He won the Queens Vase on the level for Mark Johnston and now goes jumping with John Ferguson. He's rated about 30 lbs higher than these on the level so it will be very interesting to see how he gets on here. The price puts me off at around 2/1 but it wouldn't surprise me to see him win this but would rather wait and take a look at what shape he's in. Loads of other horses to look out for the future, Focail Maith, Chalk It Down and Simply A Legend already have fair form in the book while Nicky Henderson saddles a flat recruit in Nordic Quest. He was rated in the 70's but the yard seem to be bale to transform this type and should run well but again the connections will squeeze the price. Two young horses with a future are Wadswick Court and Go West Young Man. The former is a bumper winner and ran ok when only 7th in a decent race at Cheltenham last time, he has his first run over timber and could be useful. Go West Young Man made a very eye catching start to his hurdling career last season and hasn't been seen since. He ran a funny race but stayed on well in the closing stages and i think Henry Daly has a high regard for this one and although may just need the run i can see him getting involved now he's a year older. At the prices he's worth a nibble each way but whatever happens its a race to watch for the coming weeks.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Lots of decent novice races today and backing the following; 1225 D: Warden Hill 2/1 SJ 1210 C: Kentucky Hyden 11/8 SJ 150 C: Kings Palace 5/4 Betfred Warden Hill ran really well when winning at Kempton over 2m5f and then was messed about in a hot handicap next time. This step up to 3m should suit especially on a track like Doncaster and i think represents the best form i the race and wasn't impressed by the rival Silver Eagle last time out at all. Kentucky Hyden won by a street on his debut over hurdles in Britain and its difficult to know what he actually achieved but he looked a million dollars and i'd be surprised if the Nicholls horse can beat him here first time up for the yard. Kings Palace steps up in class again but is improving with every run and can take this on the way to his chosen engagement at the Festival. Saint Roque is solid enough but is fully exposed and we know what we are getting with him. The Pipe horse travels well and should have enough left in the tank to hold off his challengers up the hill.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Notebook runner today; 12.15 Carlisle: Dark Dune 3/1 PP

29th Nov: Doncaster Dark Dune (T.Easterby) was beaten over 20 lengths here so not an obvious one for the notebook but i liked the way he kept on after several errors on his hurdling debut. Doncaster novices often throw up plenty of winners due to the true run races here and as long as they don't aim too high next time he could be of interest. Somewhere like Sedgefield or Catterick could be right up his street.

Well he goes at Carlisle in the opening race and we have 3 NR's already due to the heavy ground after overnight rain. Has one main rival and thats the top one who runs with a penalty so we may as well take him on as its a pretty weak contest. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook

1.15 Plumpton: Knock House 2/1 SJ I wrote this in my notebook about Knock House after his debut over hurdles, he looks to have found the right opportunity today and is a confident selection to beat a very ordinary field. Henderson and Greatrix have youngsters in the line up which keeps the price honest enough.

Nov 22nd: Ascot

Knock House (M.Channon) I saw this horse in the flesh at Huntingdon last season winning a bumper in very nice fashion and was wondering when we would see him again. Well he came out in a decent class 3 novice against Beat That from the Henderson yard, he looked dangerous two out but ended up weakening into third. He jumped well and like most of Channons will improve for the run and will be interesting next time.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook A few more for the list before xmas; 7th December: Sandown Champagne At Tara (JJ O'Neill) This was a fair novice with two french horses from the Nicholls and Henderson yards battling it out. Back in third was Champagne At Tara who was held up off the pace and went with the leaders approaching two out. He couldn't sustain his challenge but this 4yo by Kayf Tara will be better over further and had shown a bit of ability behind Red Sherlock in his bumper at Cheltenham. 10th December: Uttoxeter Flementime (M.Keighley) Looked a fair mares race with Legacy Gold the hot favourite and expected to win easily. Flementime was the only horse to give the winner a race and was a very encouraging performance on her first run since finishing 6th at Aintree in the big mares bumper back in 2012. Will be fitter next time and should collect a similar event if not too highly tried and kept to her own sex. 12th December: Huntingdon Wadswick Court (C.Longsdon) One of the few winners to go into the notebook. This was a strong heat with plenty of public form and two or three nice newcomers including Nordic Quest and Namibian. In the end Wadswick Court scrambled home by half a length on his debut over hurdles and was a very pleasing run considering he never settled and then battled on well to hold off the challengers on the run in. I expect him to come on a lot from this and can take a race with his penalty. He's another one that has come from Red Sherlocks bumper race at Cheltenham. Another horse that finished down the field was Go West Young Man (H.Daly) the trainer rates this horse a lot and was probably running over a trip and a track that was too sharpe in hindsight. He was held up way off the pace and when trying to make ground made a mistake and then was brought him win one piece without being hit by Richard Johnson. I'm sure this one will pay his way in time and if he goes over further or races on a more galloping track we will see bags of improvement. 14th December: Doncaster Broughton (J.Ferguson) As with most of John Ferguson's flat recruits its a question of stamina and this ex Mark Johnston horse was put in at the deep end against Fox Norton and Royal Irish Hussar. He jumped well in the main and made up plenty of ground in the home straight, he got the second last wrong which ultimately could have cost him as he got two within a head of pulling it off. I'm not 100% sure about his head carriage to be honest but he should go one better if he's kept to a similar flat track on decent ground. 16th December: Plumpton Marcilhac (V.Williams) I strongly fancied Knock House to win this and was given a real fright by Marcilhac who was having his first run for new connections having raced over fences in France. Obviously he's going to be a chaser but they might try and pick up one of these weak novice hurdles before switching to the larger obstacles. The front two went away from the field and overall this was a very good effort. He's only ran on soft or heavy and will probably want further so if he rolls up at Chepstow or similar over xmas i'd be interested.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Not the best month so far; *Knock House won but a R4 of 25p took the price down to 6/4 List updated; * Took those that have ran in handicaps off the list, if they return to novice hurdles i will look at them individually.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 12.50 Uttoxeter: Allow Dallow (11/4 SJ) makes his first appearance since being added to the list of novices to follow, he was an eye catching second to the useful Royal Regatta at Leicester and had Pure Science and Take A Bow in behind who were both well fancied that day. The horse made up some late ground and shaped as though he would definitely improve for the experience and has found an easier opportunity here. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 200 Ascot: Irving 9/4 bet365 Irving was very impressive last time out here, he still makes the odd niggly mistake and in the end that could cost him when in the very top level but this is a small field and should be able to get away with it. The fav is from the Henderson camp and is unbeaten since coming over from France but i'm not sure his form amounts to a lot and at the prices i do think its worth taking him on here. I reckon they should be joint fav's so 9/4 about Iriving looks very tempting. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 1210 Newcastle: Blakemount 4/5 bet365 Tricky old day punting wise i think and i'm staying clear of the handicaps. The opening race at Newcastle looks a match between Blakemount and Greensalt and i reckon the favourite should be a lot shorter than 4/5. With a McCain horse in opposition you are always liable to a bit of value and i think Blakemount is a good few pounds better than Greensalt. Saying that he will have to be with his penalty but if he runs up to his current form the danger will need to improve an awful lot to win and i doubt he's that good. 1pt win *Heart Dancer runs today who is on the list but has decided to go chasing.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 210 Bangor: Classic Move Evens bet365 The race at Aintree where Spirit Of Shankly beat the highly regarded Urban Hymn was a very decent contest and the third that day Classic Move faces nothing of that calibre here and really ought to get off the mark over timber. Had previously won his bumper at Sedgefield and goes well in soft ground, the trainer has a cracking record at the track and looks the most solid option on a very ordinary Bangor card. 1pt win

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Wee heads up for Race 1 at Lingfield. http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/144822-Jumps-Racing-Tuesday-26th-November

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: NH Novice Notebook http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/22-12-2013/lingfield-park/result/598150/ladbrokes-junior-standard-open-nh-flat-race-awt

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 1250 Kempton: Champagne At Tara 8/1EW This horse runs off the list at Kempton on boxing day. Its a very strong race so an each way bet is advised. He takes on his conqueror once again but is 8bs better off so that could bring them very close together this time. The favourite is the impressive Dubai prince and Sgt Reckless is also in the line up and should be worth watching for future pointers.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook [h=2] Re: BBOTD Friday 27th December[/h]

12.15 Wetherby: Flementime SP Bit busy tomorrow, have a wedding to go to! I think Flementime should get off the mark in this weak mares event although I'm not expecting much of a price. her run behind legacy gold was a decent effort and a reproduction of that will be good enough here.

NH Novices Notebook

gsdi.co.uk

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 145 Don: Oscar Hoof 5/6 SJ Not much time so will side with one of my novices in the notebook, Oscar Hoof. Made a good impression on his debut over hurdles when second to the very useful Zamdy Man at Haydock and this looks like a drop in class and one thing for sure the race will be run at a decent pace and the trainer often does well with his novices at Doncaster.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 230 Haydock; Urban Hymn 5/6 bet365 Another one off the list runs today up at Haydock, Urban Hymn was kept in the notebook after going down on his hurdles debut to Spirit Of Shankly here earlier in the year. He was a bit free and jumped big and will have learnt an awful lot from that run over these brush hurdles. I'm convinced he's going to be very useful later on and should be able to pick up a couple of hurdles races before going chasing where he will improve again.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Been quite busy over Xmas and with the heavy ground its been a funny time for the novices and cant decide if some of the form is flattering or not so have very little to add to the notebook. One horse that took my eye was No Substitute (A.King) at Doncaster the other day. It was a decent race in which Oscar Hoof won but the King horse was making only his 6th start in 4 years and returning from 2 years off the track. The only problem is that he's an 8yo going on 9 after tomorrow and thats not a place to be for a novice hurdler. However he finished 7th at Donny and will almost certainly come on for the run and before his injury had some nice form. He plugged on and just think next time out could be worth an interest in an average contest before he goes handicapping no doubt. Update: Notebook (took Rock A Doodle Do and Heart Dancer off the list due to running in Handicaps) Happy New Year all:ok

[Geraldo]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Happy New Year, Billy. I've only recently started following this thread and am finding it interesting and useful. Long may it continue !

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook

Happy New Year, Billy. I've only recently started following this thread and am finding it interesting and useful. Long may it continue !

Many thanks, its nice to know i'm not alone:lol

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 12.10 Cheltenham: Flementime EW 8/1 bet365 A non runner the other day in a much easier contest and i'm not sure the mare is up to this class but at the prices is worth a nibble each way. She chased home a useful sort on her first run over hurdles and will be all the better for the experience, she does get the sex allowance and the trainer often drops one in at the deep end at Cheltenham and has done well in the past so maybe there is plenty more to come. The front three in the betting bring some very useful novice form to the table and win or lose this race will give us a guide to some various bits of form, lets hope its a true run race at least. 0.50pts EW

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 3.25 Catterick: Five In A Row 10/11 Ladbrokes/bet365 This looks a good opportunity for the Brian Ellison hurdler, he won a point to point an then was impressive in his bumper victory at Carlisle. On his hurdles debut he was pitched in against the likes of Ballyalton and Oscar Rock and wasn't disgraced back in 4th place that day. This 3 mile trip looks like what he wants and connections will be disappointed if he cant win in this company. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 1.50 Plumpton: Marcilhac 6/4 bet365 One from the notebook and surprised he's not the favourite getting weight from the Oliver Sherwood horse. Spirit Oscar has won twice and beat the same horse in those two outings and the form has yet to be tested. Marcilhac caught my eye by the way he travelled until the last on his British debut here behind Knock House. That form is good in the context of this heat and although he's made to go chasing shortly he should be able to pick up an average maiden such as this. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 2.30 Southwell: Wadswick Court 11/10 bet365 Another runner from the notebook today, Wadswick Court is one of the very few previous winners that i have included and looks to have found a decent opportunity to follow up his victory at Huntingdon. I thought he did a lot wrong that day yet still won a competitive race and if he can settle better for the experience there should be a lot more to come from this dual bumper winner. He ha sot give a stone to the Henderson mare so it won't be easy but at least it keeps the price on the right side of evens. 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Notebook horses are getting a bit thin on the ground with pretty poor races since xmas on terrible ground. However we have no excuses today with 3 nice hurdles at Donny on good to soft going. Thought i would have a look at each contest; The 12.10 is a good one to get the meeting going with on for two bits of useful form on show. Minella Friend was in the notebook after his run at Exeter and i commented that he would be interesting when going over a trip as he seemed to get outpaced and stayed on again. Well he did move up to 2m5f next time and was a touch disappointing for me, he was left behind by a couple of fair types but i'm surprised to see him step back to 2m3f here. Softsong had some good form when with P.Hobbs and has been handicapping, first start for the new yard here and is best watched i reckon. Namibian was a class act on the level for M.Johnston and didn't really impress on his hurdles debut and weakened badly up the home straight behind Wadswick Court. He could well be a different horse today and wouldn't write him off just yet. Nordic Quest was third in that Huntingdon contest and although only rated in the 70's on the flat he looked like a sort who will progress over hurdles and if he can improve on that run he could be the one to beta here on this flat track which suits the ex-flat types. Division 2 of this contest (1.10) doesn't look as competitive and includes a couple of fancied runners making their debuts over hurdles. N.Henderson runs Act Alone and he will be the favourite, he didn't manage to win either of his two bumpers so probably not one of the yards leading lights. Abigail Lynch is a point to point and bumper winner with a big reputation. She receives the mares allowance and ha sot be respected but would be happier if she up against her own sex. Sir Pitt has the form in the book, he was 5th to Zarkandar in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle and that alone would be good enough to win this but then had a long time off with injury. He made his second comeback at Ffos Las the other day and travelled like a good horse before being outpointed late on, he looks pretty solid and will no doubt be going handicapping soon. Pipe runs Smiles For Miles who could improve on his first run and could nick a place. The 2.10 is all about the odds on favourite Diamond King, i'm not his biggest fan so won't be getting involved at 4/9. I opposed him last time and to be fair he threw the race away with a bad mistake. With New Years Eve a NR it doesn't leave much in opposition but of those at bigger prices i'd keep an eye on Ifits A Fiddle, he was given a quiet ride last time and then made up some ground before clouting the third last, he could improve and outrun his price of 25/1. Bet: 12.10 Nordic Quest 5/2 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Latest Update :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 12.10 Warwick : Flementime EW 8/1 bet365 Same again tomorrow, third time this has been entered, lets hope she runs tomorrow; Wrote this last time, same applies really;

12.10 Cheltenham: Flementime EW 8/1 bet365 A non runner the other day in a much easier contest and i'm not sure the mare is up to this class but at the prices is worth a nibble each way. She chased home a useful sort on her first run over hurdles and will be all the better for the experience, she does get the sex allowance and the trainer often drops one in at the deep end at Cheltenham and has done well in the past so maybe there is plenty more to come.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 1.35 Kempton: The Liquidator 5/2 PP Going for The Liquidator in the Tolworth, i saw him win at Cheltenham and was very impressed by the way he ground it out in front. Some say Kempton won't suit him but i disagree as although its a flatter, sharper track you still need plenty of stamina and The Liquidator has plenty of that. I expect him to make this a real test in the ground and it will take a good un to beat him.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook 230 Plumpton: Toubeera 5/6 betvic/PP 100 Plumpton: Uhlan Bute 11/10 betvic I think Venetia Williams has a couple of good chances today with her novices. She should take the opening race but i'm more keen on Toubeera in the mares contest. I saw this horse at Huntingdon last April win by half a track and she has been highly tried since compared to this. She was well beaten at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 race but last time ran well at Newbury behind Caroles Spirit and Fabrika. The danger is the Pipe horse but she had a long time off after a heavy fall and the yard are not firing at the moment either. In the 1.00 Uhlan Bute has to give weight away but his second at Leicester last week looks good enough to take this. He's had plenty of experience and won at Stratford earlier on. Ravens Tower gets the age allowance which gives him a squeak but the overall profile of that more is hard to fathom and i'm happy to take him on here. *Will add some more to the notebook later today all being well.:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Notebook Very few horses worth going into the notebook due to the heavy ground making the form very suspect. Doncaster was ran on decent ground and i like the form from the Yorkshire track, the races are often run at a decent clip and the best horse usually wins and not many excuses can be found for the others. Jan 8th: Doncaster Nordic Quest (N.Henderson) is worth another chance after finishing third for the second time since switching to hurdles. He was only moderate on the flat so quite surprising he's with such a powerful yard. He travelled well in this above average novice event and weakened going to the last. The winner had some useful form so this could yet turn out a nice performance and should be able to collect an ordinary race, he may want a sharp flat track to be seen at his best so don't be surprised if he goes to Huntingdon or Wincanton which suit flat types. Jan 8th: Doncaster Benenden (M.Scudamore) was having his first run over hurdles here and comes from the Irish pointing field. He had fell twice and won on his last race before coming to England and this was a very promising effort indeed. He made mistakes which is what i half expected but moved up nicely once he got the hang of things. It wasn't a hot race by any stretch but ran on to grab third. He will want further in time but as long as he sticks to this kind of company he could win a hurdle given normal improvement. Jan 8th: Doncaster Uppingham (M.Jefferson) A keen going sort who i think has a lot of improvement in him. In his bumper races he pulled hard, made late headway and didn't finish off his races. Here he was a bit handier and went in pursuit of the odds on fav Diamond King after the second last. He finished strongly to suggest he is coming along and knowing the trainer he will be taking his time with this 5yo and might be worth looking at next time in an average race up north. Jan 11th: Kempton Goodwood Mirage (JJ O'Neill) You cant help but be impressed by this juveniles first run over hurdles. He did most things wrong and still got up on the line and looks avery useful recruit to the jumping game. He was rated in the 90's on the flat and should have no trouble in defying a penalty in a similar contest. He could end up at Cheltenham and is 25/1 for the Triumph, if he learns from this and wins well next time he will be half that price come March. Ante Post: Goodwood Mirage EW 25/1 bet365 (Triumph Hurdle) :ok Updated List