MPLouis Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I wasn't sure where to post this, but thought I'd put it in 'Systems & Strategy' ... I've been struggling with returns from my betting recently. I'm fairly confident I've been making some good selections, but I've also been losing rather than winning. I wanted to sound everyone out to see if anyone has any advice or suggestions :hope Last night (Tuesday 8th October) was a good example. I analysed possible value on the Johnstone's Paint Trophy cup games and marked six teams in red which I thought were good value. Two of these were Brentford at Peterborough and Carlisle at Morecambe. I placed real bets myself and tipped these on PL ... http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/143401-Johnstones-Paint-Trophy-gt-Tuesday-October-8th Brentford lost and Carlisle drew, giving a poor return on the night. However, looking back at the other four teams I highlighted in red on my list, I would have had made a decent profit if I had backed all six instead of just Brentford and Carlisle. All bets were 2-way Asian bets with Pinnacle or sbo. I have recorded returns with level stakes of 1 point per bet. ACTUAL BETS LAST NIGHT My actual two bets were: Peterborough v Brentford Brentford +0.5 2.27 Pinnacle LOST Returns 0 Morecambe v Carlisle Carlisle AH0 2.21 sbobet VOID Returns 1 Summary of returns with level staking ========================== 2 level bets of 1 point Returns 0 (lost) 1 (void) Total stake = 2 Total return = 1 Yield = 1/2 = -50% A loss of 50% on the night - pretty disappointing. FULL LIST OF SIX SHORTLISTED RED BETS LAST NIGHT My full six 'highlighed red' bets were as follows. I haven't named the other teams, because it's not really relevant who they were and I don't want to foster ideas of 'after-timing', so I've just given them letters. Peterborough v Brentford Brentford +0.5 2.27 Pinnacle LOST Returns 0 Morecambe v Carlisle Carlisle AH0 2.21 sbobet VOID Returns 1 Team A v Team B Team B AH0 1.95 sbo WON Returns 1.95 Team C v Team D Team D +0.5 2.45 Pinnacle WON Returns 2.45 Team E v Team F Team F +0.5 2.61 Pinnacle LOST Returns 0 Team G v Team H Team H +0.5 2.72 Pinnacle WON Returns 2.72 Summary of returns with level staking ========================== 6 level bets of 1 point Returns: 0 (lost) 1 (void) 1.95 (won) 2.45 (won) 0 (lost) 2.72 (won) 8.12 Total stake = 6 Total return = 8.12 Yield = 2.12/6 = 33% A profit of 33% - very nice SUMMARY So backing all six highlighted red 2-way bets would have given a nice profit of 33% on the night. The only trouble is, I failed to back all six, choosing just two resulting in one void and one loser. My choices meant that instead of producing a 33% profit, I actually got a 50% loss. This has been the pattern in my recent bets. I've done lots of good research, made a shortlist, then selected some bets only to find my selections lose where others that I failed to back won. Or I back some selections and produce a loss, then the next night I fail to back my choices and miss out on a nice profit. Am I doing something wrong here? Am I missing something? Or am I just being unlucky? Any advice or suggestions much appreciated ... :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negapo Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... I wrote this on another thread that i think is relevant in you case: When you trade (both in sports betting or financial markets) or even when you open a business your expected profit is dependent on the number of opportunities you encounter and the value that they provide. When you account for luck you get to the conclusion that you rather have a lot of opportunities with small value than few opportunities with big value. An example: You get to back Real Madrid to win the game at odds of 2.0 against the team that is in last. You compute that the fairodds will be something like 1.30 so this is a chance in a lifetime. What do you do, how much do you bet? If you follow your guts or something like the Kelly Criterion you will find out that you should not stake too much because Real Madrid can still end not winning (in 23% of the times), so you can only grab in safety a little amount of this huge opportunity. Id rather have a way of identifying a lot of small imbalances and take them all with small stakes. And to find a lot of opportunities a human is not a good thing, it will get tired, it will get fed up and risk a lot more than is should (i believe that poker players can relate with this). In essence you will achieve your excepted value (you will find out if you make money or lose) in the long run after a lot of bets so grab every opportunity that you find value even if it inst a lot. Bet small on every selection that you find value (reduce the roll of luck). PS: It's a little bit like diversification in financial assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negapo Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... I rather have 10 selections (bets, trades, business opportunities) with an expected value of 5% than 6 with an expected value of 10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... I have been betting nearly every underdog in the top five England leagues for a while now (EPL nothing over 8.0 and Skrill Prem nothing over 6.0). What I found was that the percentage of wins and (more often) draws were well above break even, provided that you chose right...for example, League Two predominantly outright wins, while League One, predominantly draws. Anyway, for two years it went well. This year, I've gotten my ass kicked. Two big reasons are that Skrill Prem has gone from a draw league to an outright win league, and Championship has switched in the other direction. I didn't change my bets, thinking the leagues would go back to their "normal" state...draws when I got wins, and wins when I got draws. It's hard to limit bets in this sort of strategy...invariably the one you don't take comes in. One thing I have started doing is whenever I see that many people here are tipping an upset that I would ordinarily play, I stay away from it. When was the last time everybody here was right about anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... Why would you want to bet every underdog in these leagues? Do you know bookmakers spread their margins unevenly and underdogs betting in general is least profitable opportunity of all? Bookmakers are rich, they sponsor big clubs like Real - do you really think beating them is as easy as simply backing every underdog blindly? You need to do your homework, test things before you bet with real money. Possibly at least 1000 bets.. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... I don't bet blindly, and I didn't say I back against Real. Underdog betting in England can be very profitable (as I explained), so long as you bet straight up and don't take handicaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 So backing all six highlighted red 2-way bets would have given a nice profit of 33% on the night. The only trouble is, I failed to back all six, choosing just two resulting in one void and one loser. My choices meant that instead of producing a 33% profit, I actually got a 50% loss. This has been the pattern in my recent bets. I've done lots of good research, made a shortlist, then selected some bets only to find my selections lose where others that I failed to back won. Or I back some selections and produce a loss, then the next night I fail to back my choices and miss out on a nice profit. Why did you cross the selections that won off your list? I wouldn't beat yourself up over it as the JPT is a tough competition and I would only usually risk one bet :lol to find six or eight is hardcore. Maybe you need to look at your selection methods, or the competitions you're choosing to invest in? Its no bad thing to say you can't make a profit on an English competition - just because you're English doesn't mean you're going to get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... Why did you cross the selections that won off your list? I wouldn't beat yourself up over it as the JPT is a tough competition and I would only usually risk one bet :lol to find six or eight is hardcore. Maybe you need to look at your selection methods' date=' or the competitions you're choosing to invest in? Its no bad thing to say you can't make a profit on an English competition - just because you're English doesn't mean you're going to get it.[/quote'] Yeah, but the point is I DID make a profit - but only on paper :lol. Actually I've done fairly well on the JPT overall - I think I've got the knack for spotting some value - so all the more frustrating I failed to capitalise. I think my problem might have something to do with risk, money management, the psychology of losing, dealing with losing runs - that sort of thing. Why did I cross the winning JPT selections off my list? I suppose I was trying to pick the ones I thought were the best value. In some cases, I think I talked myself out of backing the long-shots, convincing myself that the short-priced favourites would prevail (but two of the longshot bets won ...). Of course, it's all so easy to see where I went wrong AFTER the event. I think I might need to make some adjustments to the way I manage my betting - but I'm not sure what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanJenkins2 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... The problem with backing underdogs singly is that we want to win and we don't like losing.We'd like bigger payouts when we win,but our brains aren't wired up to tell the difference between short-priced winners and long-priced winners.So we keep wanting to back selections we expect to win,rather than those that offer value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... Why not play all of them if they're value bets? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... The problem with backing underdogs singly is that we want to win and we don't like losing.We'd like bigger payouts when we win' date='but our brains aren't wired up to tell the difference between short-priced winners and long-priced winners.So we keep wanting to back selections we expect to win,rather than those that offer value.[/quote'] Sorry Alan - I don't quite understand your point :unsure. How does 'wanting to back selections we expect to win' relate to backing underdogs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... If you are just betting on value, then you've got to look at long term results rather than short term. The nature of 'value' betting doesn't mean that your selections are GOING to win. Just that if you continually back sides at a bigger price than their true odds you should win over a longer term period. You might have a bad run losing for a number of weeks on the trot. You could then go on a run of winning bets for a longer period. The element of randomness means that the results could fall in anyway. The same way you might see a big run of red or black on a roulette wheel. Thats all the theory side anyway. The problem there lies for me that 'value' betting is in the eye of the beholder. You've got the numbers and stats side to it which are going to be the dominant factor in bookies odd compiling. But you've then got the external factors with injuries, morale e.t.c where the punters knowledge could help in gaining an edge. That's why for me I would rarely bet on teams/leagues I have little knowledge of. Stats alone can't show the true picture and for me it would be very difficult to get an edge on the bookies purely using the same stats as they might. In short, you can't get too down and over analytical on short term poor form. The fact that you short listed winners but didn't back them shows you can't be doing it all wrong. If you are still finding that your results are poor over a much longer period, it might be time then to consider how you are deciding bets are 'value' . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... Update Today (Saturday 12th October) I did another shortlist for value on League One, Two and Conference and eventually marked seven teams in red that I wanted to back. I backed them all on the +0.5 handicap. (I find it useful to mark my choices in red because then I can't fool myself that 'I was going to back that one' if it isn't coloured red.) Here are the returns ... Summary of returns with level staking ========================= 7 level bets of 1 point 0 (lost) 1.58 2.05 0 (lost) 1.72 2.12 1.62 9.09 Total stake = 7 Total return = 9.09 Yield = 2.09/7 = 29% So I made a nice profit of nearly 30% today :). I think it's probably too early to draw any firm conclusions from Tuesday's failure or today's success (although some might say the answer is to back ALL your selections not just some). But just wanted to let you know I had some success today to balance the disappointment of Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... I would rarely bet on teams/leagues I have little knowledge of. Stats alone can't show the true picture and for me it would be very difficult to get an edge on the bookies purely using the same stats as they might I have found I can find profitable bets on some leagues without much specialist knowledge (by carefully analysing stats and shortlisting matches which might have some value). That's what I did for Tuesday's JPT cup games and today's league games. I've seen other punters on PL produce good returns from their tips, and I suspect they don't really have specialist knowledge of the relevant leagues - because the tips are often from a variety of different leagues. But having said, I'm sure the best bets I make are normally those where I DO have some detailed knowledge of the team(s) in question. For example, if I know that TEAM Y tends to get a lot of corners and corner bets are available on them at decent odds, it makes sense for me to back TEAM Y corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... This weekend (Sat 19th Oct/Sun 20th Oct) I did another 'red list' of value bets on English League games (Prem, Cha, One, Two, Conference). Here's a summary of the results: Summary of 18 bets (all Asian Handicaps) A+0.5 2.16 won 2.16 B+1 2.03 void 1 C+1.5 1.52 won 1.52 D+0.5 2.02 won 2.02 E+0.5 1.91 won 1.91 F+1 1.8 lost 0 G+0.5 1.88 won 1.88 H+0.5 1.92 won 1.92 I+0.5 1.85 won 1.85 J+0.5 1.68 lost 0 K+0.5 2.04 lost 0 L+0.5 2.43 lost 0 M+0.5 2.24 won 2.24 N+0.5 1.9 lost 0 O +0 2.0 void 1 P+0.5 2.28 lost Q+0.5 2.89 won 2.89 R+0.5 1.79 lost 0 TOT 20.39 Total staked 18 Total return 20.39 Profit 2.39 Profit % 13% A lot more work this weekend than last (18 bets instead of 7) and a smaller profit, but once again a nice profit :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... I've decided to try to continue this developing blog-style thread for a while. I suppose it's a useful way of measuring my performance. Last night (Tuesday 22nd October) was a poor night for me, but I think it's healthy if I post the results anyway. Yesterday I posted 7 tips on the League 1 and League 2 pages ... http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/143688-Sky-Bet-League-1-gt-Tuesday-October-22nd?p=2367243#post2367243 http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/143689-League-2-gt-Tuesday-October-22nd They were a variety DNB. AH0 and straight wins Here are the results 3.7 void 1 3.0 lost 0 1.73 lost 0 4.2 lost 0 4.2 lost 0 1.82 void 1 1.77 void 1 Total staked @ level stakes of 1 point = 7 Total return = 3 Profit = -4 Profit % = -57% A very poor night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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