Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Southampton v Crystal Palace (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.61[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.27 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[vmoney]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Saints - Palace Not having the price on Southampton here. The bookies are pricing them as 6th place or better and I just can't see it. They're not an Everton and are priced just above where Liverpool would be for this fixture. The price is even more disrespectful to Palace especially as Saints can't even get up for these sort of games. Last 9 home games have seen Saints win 3 times, all against big opposition (Liverpool, Chelsea, City). In amongst that they got beat by QPR and this fixture has massive resemblance to the QPR game in which Saints went off at a ridiculous 1.65. Stats suggest that 16 - 20 teams avoid defeat just over 50% of the time at 11-15 and these fixtures see BTTS cash in 62% of games. You might argue that Saints are a 6-10 but until I see solid evidence of this (especially at home) I'll keep them in the 11-15 bracket. Palace double chance 2.85 BTTS 2.25

[Jase82]

^^ Strongly disagree with this. I make Southampton around 1.3 to win this game' date=' so anything higher than 1.5 is tremendous value. Of course, you'll point to their two drawn home games already this season versus Sunderland and West Ham.......but they battered both those teams and only inspired opposition goalkeepers kept the Saints at bay. C Palace are a dire side and their confidence must be low. Southampton, on the other hand, are on a high following their very impressive display at Anfield last week. Southampton are the bet here......and those looking for a decent price could do worse than backing D Osvaldo to score 2 or more goals.[/quote'] I'd lay Southampton all day long at 1.3 to win here :lol

[neilovan]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Saints at this price are a joke. It , is the lowest they have ever been priced at home since they returned to the premier league. Their record is unconvincing. Every time they have been priced under or near 1.85 they have failed to win the game. Both times this season 0-0 West Ham (1.85) 1-1 Sunderland (1.73) last season 1-1 Stoke (1.75) 0-3 WBA (1.85) 1-1 West Ham (1.91) 1-2 QPR (1.85) Would'nt touch them at this price with a 10 ft pole. If you are looking at 1.53 price , then surely Man City to beat Aston Villa (same price) is a much better bet....

[vmoney]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

^^ Strongly disagree with this. I make Southampton around 1.3 to win this game' date=' so anything higher than 1.5 is tremendous value. Of course, you'll point to their two drawn home games already this season versus Sunderland and West Ham.......but they battered both those teams and only inspired opposition goalkeepers kept the Saints at bay. C Palace are a dire side and their confidence must be low. Southampton, on the other hand, are on a high following their very impressive display at Anfield last week. Southampton are the bet here......and those looking for a decent price could do worse than backing D Osvaldo to score 2 or more goals.[/quote'] So you're saying Southampton have a better squad than Everton, equally as good a squad as Liverpool and only slightly worse off than Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, City and United? By making them 1.30 that's what you're saying. Which positions exactly do you think Southampton are stronger than Everton in?

[Pay Day]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

To be perfectly honest there are very few Everton players that I believe would improve the Saints starting eleven. Even L Baines would be hard pushed to displace Luke Shaw on Shaw's current form. I'd take Ross Barkley but' date=' other than that, I'm struggling to see how any other player would improve the Saints current eleven. Southampton will finish AT LEAST five points clear of Everton come May. I'll resurrect this thread when they do so. :)[/quote'] :rollin I admire your support, for how long have you been a Saints season ticket holder? I think Saints may narrowly win, but would not be surprised at all by a draw here. Saints have proved rubbish at breaking down defensive opposition, and Lambert has looked really off form since fulfilling his England dream / arrival of Osvaldo. FYI I struggle to think of 3 players who would start for Everton from the Saints team. Maybe Lambert, Schneiderlein, Lovren? But for me Lukaku, Barry/McCarthy, Jagielka/Distin are all currently at least equal to those Saints three.

[HastGill1]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Fair play to Bilko, there is usually a fair bit of fence sitting in threads but he has stuck his neck on the line, like it! However crap I think Palace are (and I think they are pretty crap) I just couldn't take this price! This one has the look of a game that's going to ruin plenty of accumulators on Sat afternoon..

[wisey10]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th I'd make Saints about 1.66. They are definitely too short but I don't particularly fancy taking them on either. I can see why bookies are keeping them on side in this match. As Gill says, they will no doubt be on plenty of coupons.

[Aidymac]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Bilko I love the thread, heart on the sleeve, but to say Southampton are going to finish ahead of Everton is saying Southampton are going to finish 5th or 6th. :D They beat Liverpool yes, but I think your getting a bit carried away. If the Saints finish in 12th or 13th it will be a decent season.

[Guest]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Southampton are now at 1.45 with B365 (probably lower elsewhere) As many expected the price on Southampton is falling, no doubt being included in a load of accumulators etc. This puts value in a Palace handicap IMO. Southampton haven't beaten a team by more than 1 goal in the league since April 6th Palace +1.0 (AH) @ 2.150 on B365 Palace +1.5 (AH) @ 1.675 on B365 Put it this way, do you think Southampton will win by 2 goals or more 40% of the time? If not, then there is value in Palace +1.5....

[jenksy]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th I fully agree with Bilko65 as to how impressive Saints have been since the new manager took over. They seem to attack in packs with at least 4 in the box every time. Lambert is sheer quality and his goals ratio in the last few seasons has been superb. Their movement when they don't have the ball is impressive nearly on a par with the support play which i feel is their best quality. Saints to go marching on ! Hopefully i will be standing behind Bilko65 at the pay out window. +2.5 goals at 10/11 seems the way to go.

[Bobby Woodruff]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th I have seen 3 of Palace's games this season (Spurs and Swansea at home and Stoke away) and in only one of those have they played badly, (Swansea).They have a big squad now and Holloway has yet to decide on his best team but they do have a pattern of play that is emerging. Saints are playing pretty well but are not scoring many from open play. No one has battered Palace yet and I don't see any evidence to see that they might get battered tomorrow. Not suggesting taking Palace (!) but a close win for Saints with both sides scoring would seem more likely.

[Jase82]

Keep your money mate. The floodgates will open tomorrow. I'll be surprised if Southampton don't win this game by 4 or 5 clear goals. Trying a correct score Saints 5-0 Palace but my main bet will be Osvaldo to score 2 or more goals.

From experience on PL I truly hope they do win big tomorrow as statements like this can come back to bite you in the ass! They aren't gonna finish top six, I'd have them eighth at best :ok

[ivan.ikonomov]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Southampton's last home win in the Premier League came on 30 March. The Saints will be eager to build on the Liverpool victory and record their first home win of the season - and the PL's weakest team seems the perfect opposition.

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Southampton are the only team in the premier league yet to score a goal in open play. So how on earth did the bookies manage price this game???? Some real value here with palace but there is just no way you can see them getting a result here under 2.5 is prob the safest bet here

[j6u1uv4n4]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

Southampton are the only team in the premier league yet to score a goal in open play.

That means the probability of Southampton scoring from open play is growing bigger and bigger. I think today's game is the perfect moment for Southampton strikers to open their accounts.

[IrishTW]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

Some real value here with palace but there is just no way you can see them getting a result here

That makes perfect sense:unsure

[vmoney]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

Keep your money mate. The floodgates will open tomorrow. I'll be surprised if Southampton don't win this game by 4 or 5 clear goals. Trying a correct score Saints 5-0 Palace but my main bet will be Osvaldo to score 2 or more goals.

A fool and his money are easily parted.

[vmoney]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

A childish insult that adds nothing to the thread. Well done. Good luck with your: Palace double chance 2.85 & BTTS 2.25 bets.

You've offered no substance to your opinion, just pure conjuncture. You've stuck your neck out which I respect but it hasn't been backed up by any form of coherent evidence in my opinion. To suggest Southampton are going to win by such a margin without offering an explanation as to why makes you come across as extremely foolish.

[Jase82]

You've offered no substance to your opinion' date=' just pure conjuncture. You've stuck your neck out which I respect but it hasn't been backed up by any form of coherent evidence in my opinion. To suggest Southampton are going to win by such a margin without offering an explanation as to why makes you come across as extremely foolish.[/quote'] Mate you've offered nothing in way of debating Bilko and seem to be disagreeing with nothing to back it up. These are not traits that are particularly welcome here :ok offer a different point of view or say nothing.

[vmoney]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

Mate you've offered nothing in way of debating Bilko and seem to be disagreeing with nothing to back it up. These are not traits that are particularly welcome here :ok offer a different point of view or say nothing.

Or what? Bilko's reasoning is nor here nor there. It's simply a finger in the air with zero substance. I thought this forum prided itself on well thought out reasoning and justification behind each recommendation?

[vmoney]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

With respect' date=' by the very nature of gambling, 'conjecture' is pretty much all we have to go on. And your conjecture is no more or less valid than my conjecture. Good luck with your bets.[/quote'] Thanks. Good luck to you too.

[Jase82]

Or what? Bilko's reasoning is nor here nor there. It's simply a finger in the air with zero substance. I thought this forum prided itself on well thought out reasoning and justification behind each recommendation?

If you think the opposite to his opinion put up your own counter argument rather than tarring it as rubbish.

[chuda]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th this will be funny :D

[Bobby Woodruff]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th Palace were no different to any other game this season so far. Defended vey well for 95% of the game but undone by a momentary lack of concentration that kills you at this level. They are not the whipping boys that some pundits have made out and after the next two matches, have a run of winnable games. Well done Saints, won't be opposing them for a while.

[Jase82]

Watched the game an was impressed with Palace. Unlike Sunderland and West Ham' date=' they managed to restrict Saints to a handful of chances. Southampton totally bossed possession, as you might expect, but never looked like giving Palace the whipping I had predicted. I still think there is much more to come from this Southampton team. Looking forward to the usual suspects coming on here next weekend and telling us once again that the bookies have overpriced Saints to beat Swansea at St Mary's. For the record, yes, I will be lumping on Saints again and would see their true price at around 1.5......anything better than that should be swiftly taken advantage of.[/quote'] What, 1.5 against Swansea? The Swans are a different prospect to Palace. Palace are bottom three while Swansea are in the same bracket as Saints. I'd make the Saints slight favorites based on the home factor but anything below evens would be poor value IMO.