Where's my profit gone?

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Where's my profit gone? It's an interesting point banning the exchanges but if your going to do that then you have to go the whole hog & go to a tote monopoly a la France. The prize money there is a good deal higher than here with more money put back into the sport but then on that subject the number of races with a fair level prize money here & you get tiny fields is a joke. In answer to the original question I believe you are having a crisis of confidence, it happens to nearly all punters & I do not subscribe to the "Betting without emotion theory" it's not possible unless you have green blood & pointed ears. If the methods that you use have worked over a decent period of time then continue but if it carries on then you need to rethink because the game is ever evolving. I'm not going so well at the moment myself & my confidence is suffering however I remind my self of my lowest ebb. 2006, I backed the winner of the Sandown Mile in late April, the next winner I had was at Royal Ascot nearly two months later, I was shot to pieces by then. The worst point was backing Horatio Nelson in the Derby. When they got to the start Fallon was unhappy about something & the vet had a look & gave the all clear to run. Halfway down the straight something went wrong & they ended up on the floor, the horse never got up. Not only could I not back a winner they were now dying, I didn't have a bet for a fortnight. I was doing nothing different yet was miles down in the betting bank. By the end of the flat season I was in profit, swings & roundabouts or as I've put it before elsewhere, a rollercoaster. Keep the faith, Rio.

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

In answer to the original question I believe you are having a crisis of confidence, it happens to nearly all punters & I do not subscribe to the "Betting without emotion theory" it's not possible unless you have green blood & pointed ears.

Rio just because its not in your make up to bet like that do not think it is not possible, I have been betting like that since 95' and do not have pointy ears or green blood, but what I do have is a discipline to win and the mentality and funds to make it work which is obviously what you dont have. I now know why I rarely get involved in discussions on horseracing after comments like that :eyes Still laughing at the "its not a working mans price" on another thread. (not by rio ) So a 40% Roi is not good enough so you would leave it in the bank and get .005% interest while inflation is 2.75% ... classic

[The Saint]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Rio just because its not in your make up to bet like that do not think it is not possible' date=' I have been betting like that since 95' and do not have pointy ears or green blood, but what I do have is a discipline to win and the mentality and funds to make it work which is obviously what you dont have.[/quote'] Bit harsh m8! :eek I think the majority of punters that aren't stats based DO struggle with the emotional side of things. Market aside, I think it's the most important and vital part of the game but it encompasses so much. I read and learn way more on phychology than I do on hcapping or 'how to pick winners' nowadays - am desperately trying to find the time to contribute to Mowgli's thread on 'emotion' but have yet to find the time to do it justice. One thing I've learned over the years - stats punters and form punters can both turn a profit but stick em in the same room and there's always fireworks!! :lol Very hard to convince one or the other which method is better if both have turned a profit.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Rio just because its not in your make up to bet like that do not think it is not possible, I have been betting like that since 95' and do not have pointy ears or green blood, but what I do have is a discipline to win and the mentality and funds to make it work which is obviously what you dont have. I now know why I rarely get involved in discussions on horseracing after comments like that :eyes

How the fcuk do you know what I have or don't have? I suspect that as my late Father would have said I can "Buy & sell you in seven different languages" sunshine & I've forgotten more about this game than you'll ever know. Go & fcuk yourself & if that gets me banned so be it. Rio.

[DC]

Re: Where's my profit gone? I wonder if Machine has ever had a losing run or a suffered a small period of time when he doubted himself? I thought Rio's post was very open and honest and didn't deserve that arrogant response!! I would say Rio spoke for the majority of all punters, I can't honestly think of anyone who'd admit to never having a losing run or lack of confidence. Machine, I thought we were discussing Kithanga's issue here, not how amazing you are?

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

How the fcuk do you know what I have or don't have? I suspect that as my late Father would have said I can "Buy & sell you in seven different languages" sunshine & I've forgotten more about this game than you'll ever know. Go & fcuk yourself & if that gets me banned so be it. Rio.

Showing your class now Ok for you to pontificate , thrown back at you a no no :lol Keep backing the losers :ok

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

I wonder if Machine has ever had a losing run or a suffered a small period of time when he doubted himself? I thought Rio's post was very open and honest and didn't deserve that arrogant response!! I would say Rio spoke for the majority of all punters, I can't honestly think of anyone who'd admit to never having a losing run or lack of confidence. Machine, I thought we were discussing Kithanga's issue here, not how amazing you are?

Ive had massive losing runs Danny, but had the confidence to pull through them

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Bit harsh m8! :eek

Sorry Saint I dont think so. He stated he doesnt think someone can bet systematically without emotion. I do Just because he cant and someone says they can he get in a tizzy fit , he's a joke

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

How the fcuk do you know what I have or don't have? I suspect that as my late Father would have said I can "Buy & sell you in seven different languages" sunshine & I've forgotten more about this game than you'll ever know. Go & fcuk yourself & if that gets me banned so be it. Rio.

Where did I question what you have or dont have? I cant see it can anyone else? Get a grip Empty vessels again :eyes

[Al_Shrew]

but what I do have is a discipline to win and the mentality and funds to make it work which is obviously what you dont have.

This part perhaps.

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone? whats wrong with that He obviously cannot bet without emotion, where as I can so wheres the problem? Fcuk me no need to throw your toys out the pram because someone does things a different way than you. Betting affects different people in different ways,to me its a financial transaction like stock and shares I very rarely watch a race ive bet in it doesnt interest me at all its just a means to an end.

[BillyHills]

Re: Where's my profit gone? Hey guys, Chill out will ya! We have some excellent judges on here and many newcomers learn stacks from these discussions. It doesnt do anyone any good to turn it into a slanging match and makes us look like many other places out there which we are not. Drop the insults and lets carry on with what was a very good read. ..Please :ok

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Where did I question what you have or dont have? I cant see it can anyone else? Get a grip Empty vessels again :eyes

what I do have is a discipline to win and the mentality and funds to make it work which is obviously what you dont have.

Where did you question what I have or don't have? Can you read?

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Where did you question what I have or don't have? Can you read?

I can read perfectly well. If you ad the rest of the statement it states I bet without emotion and have the mentality, discipline and funds to make it work, where obviously you aren't betting without emotion so why all the dick swinging?

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

I can read perfectly well. If you ad the rest of the statement it states I bet without emotion and have the mentality, discipline and funds to make it work, where obviously you aren't betting without emotion so why all the dick swinging?

It's a pity you can't spell as well because there are two d's in add. If anybody tossed the toys out it's you, I gave an honest opinion to the question asked, YOU got arsey, not me. I don't think I was pontificating, everybody has beliefs, some are religious (I have none) my belief is simple, I do not lie & I do not cheat & I do not believe that it is possible to bet without an emotional attachment of some kind. What I was trying to get across with my story from 2006 is that I stuck to what I believe in & came out on the right side, the day I bet without emotion I will give up & I'm a long way from that day.

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

It's a pity you can't spell as well because there are two d's in add.

Shock horror,schoolboy taunting You'll be dissing me on facebook next :rollin

[The Saint]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Sorry Saint I dont think so. He stated he doesnt think someone can bet systematically without emotion. I do Just because he cant and someone says they can he get in a tizzy fit , he's a joke

And you're entitled to your opinion Machine - when it comes to the emotional side of things though, you presumably hold an advantage given that you are a 'stats' man. What you say is correct in the respect of discipline and adequate betting banks being of paramount importance but there are many reasons 'emotions' can get in the way. I bet less than 0.02% of my betting bank and even that has become an emotional 'problem' since I've had a family and have to worry about them as opposed to just myself!! Might well take me out of the game :( I can see that's quite pathetic written down but I wouldn't say I lack discipline just becasue I hate losing runs. Level stakes stay throughout and I don't think I have ever gone 'on tilt' in my life - not through increasing stakes anyway. NOT betting when I should have maybe but we are all different. One thing you and Rio do have in common though is that you are both respected and very good posters. Rio clearly holds a knowledge well above the average poster/punter. We don't agree on the 'level' stakes aspect but I still respect his views and knowledge regardless. Silly to throw mud about. If you consider Rio to be a long term loser then be greatful for him because as you know, it's each others money we are competing for. An uncomfortable truth but the Bookie or exchange is just the middle man! Keep up the good posts - as BH said, a good thread and I wish there were more like them :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

as BH said, a good thread and I wish there were more like them

Nobody is stopping you Saint, and to be fair we have had a few lately (without tips :p) _____________________________ I'll join the club. Did you see my nap today in the 7.10 at Southwell, backed from 11/8 to 8/13 and swerved on the run in when 10 lengths clear. Sorry but; "I bet and i get emotional at times" its like AA in here!

[Kithanga]

Re: Where's my profit gone? We seem to have gone off track boys! I'm with BH, lets respect all opinions and bury the hatchet, not in each other btw :-) The question of emotion is vital imo. I bet from both a stats and a form viewpoint so may be rather unique sitting in the middle of the two camps. I use stats to give me an overview of a race. For example, if there's a mare or filly with top weight in a 1m handicap running at Pontefract and it's 11-10 favourite I'm immediately interested in the race as statistically they have a tough task carrying weight uphill against the males. Using other filters narrows the race down and then it's a case of reading to form as an added layer of information. Pricing the race up then provides me with the 'value' options. I don't need to watch a race, but I do get enjoyment form it. In fact I like watching the races I don't bet in, just like horse racing. I try not to let emotion creep in and am aware of variance and how bad things can get and I do keep a lid on it 99% of the time. I wouldn't say it's easy but it gets easier over time. The more bad losing runs you have the better able you are to cope next time in my experience. I posed the original question, not because I'm emotional or on tilt as I recognise this losing run is probably nothing more than variance. I did it because I was curious about price vs sp. Many will say beat BSP and you'll profit. Well, I have. For a long time and in the recent run by +20%ish. But I profit by a smaller margin that I would expect in this sample (+5% ish). Now that may not be all down to variance, so I may be backing too many horses that aren't value and become worse value by the off. Some further study last night reveals that over the last 600 bets I've back 45% at 11-2 or less, 35% at 6-1 to 11-1 and 20% at bigger than 11-1. Previously when profits were higher it was 25%, 40% and 35%. My stakes have also been higher on the shorter animals. What this tells me is that I've drifted into backing shorter priced horses with bigger amounts when the shorter prices have always been a marginal area for me. This is a good insight for me as I suspect I'm drifting back into trying to back the most likely winner. Tut, tut. My focus now needs to be reverting back to backing the longer priced animal from my shortlist.

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone? Morning Kithanga Questions for yourself / Saint 1 Do you bet fixed stake / fixed profit / %age of current balance or another method? 2 Do you pick the the most likely winner then see if your estimated price is value (in your opinion)? 3 Do you make a book then back the horse most out of line to your book value wise (in your opinion)? 4 Most importantly do you keep a record of ALL YOUR SELECTIONS. ie even the selections you made but didnt back due to considering them non value?

[The Saint]

Re: Where's my profit gone? Be Nice!! ;) 1. Fixed Stake - in 99.9% of cases. If the bank increases sufficiently, I'll raise stakes to reflect this as long as it doesn't take me out of my 'comfort zone'. Also fixed stake for laying. Trading is usually as much as I can get on but that's a completely different entity. 2. Study Race, identify horses I believe can win, form tissue, bet accordingly if I can get price 5% (ie. 4/1(20%) over my 3/1(25%) chance as opposed to 3/1 + 5% = 3.15/1) better than my tissue price. 3. Yes - if I believe the horse has a winning chance. 4. Keep records of the selections I do back/lay - not ones I considered but didn't due to my perception of lack of value. With regards to number 2 - that has been and still is my traditional method. However, I feel that what I should be doing(and am chaning too) is backing horses that are positive in the market as opposed to those that drift without a plausibale explanation. Difficult to change after years of profit but I believe this could be key(at the lower levels anyway) - especially as it's almost impossible to 'get on' at decent early prices without suffering account closure anyway.

[Kithanga]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Morning Kithanga Questions for yourself / Saint 1 Do you bet fixed stake / fixed profit / %age of current balance or another method? 2 Do you pick the the most likely winner then see if your estimated price is value (in your opinion)? 3 Do you make a book then back the horse most out of line to your book value wise (in your opinion)? 4 Most importantly do you keep a record of ALL YOUR SELECTIONS. ie even the selections you made but didnt back due to considering them non value?

I'll answer honestly even though I'd prefer not too given how poor some decisions will look. 1. Not consistent :$ Have tried level stake win only (find the variance hard to cope with given long losing runs). Tried variable level stakes based on odds percentages, £25 at 3-1, £10 at 9-1, etc. (find that hard due to bigger stakes going on short prices where I'm not always getting biggest margin). Tried based on margin I think I've got over the odds (this is really hard as I tend to get it wrong in all honesty). Tried level stake win & place and each way (1/2 point ew not 1pt ew). Don't like either of these as long term results show volatility is similar to level stake but recovery is slower and always being margin wise). I've recently settled back onto level stakes with a bank of 150 points but I'm currently modelling level stakes plus trading off for a 40% profit whenever the price movement allows. The theory being that if I can lock in a profit of 40% on any bet it's worth taking. The remaining bets should also (hopefully) make a margin. I've never done this before or even considered it but I might split my Bank and run the two methods side by side (level stake and level stake laying off) for 1,000 bets and see how it pans out. 2. No, I try to get a feel for the race, narrow it down to those with a strong chance, medium, low and then look at the prices and choose one or sometimes two from the strong and medium that are looking out of line, usually the strong this year. This is maybe why I'm betting more in the shorter price ranges than usual and maybe why I'm struggling to get above a couple of % profit. 3. No, used to do this when I bet only Group / Listed (30%+ profits). It was time consuming but achievable with less races to study. Always struggled to price up handicaps though so stopped doing it when I started betting more on these as I was usually wildly out. Maybe this is another problem. In trying to save time and pick prices I think are out of line maybe I'm just being lazy and getting my just rewards. 4. No, just the ones I backed. Any help appreciated. In fact, just writing this down has helped me see a few potential errors in my approach.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Where's my profit gone? I have no wish to hijack this thread however I feel I must make a response to yesterdays events. I'm still trying to see where I had a dig at Machine which caused the reaction. What I've also been trying to see is evidence of the profit he claims from 95 onwards. I can see his A.I.D.E.s back football thread in the Systems & strategy which is indeed in profit, well done. In terms of horse racing I can't see that Machine has had his own thread. There are occasional posts in threads such as the Scottish Grand National, the Oaks & the Saturday lucky 15 thread but nothing that appears to give any evidence of long term profits. I've been a PL member for a long time, I've been looking back at my threads in ATR & my returns I will post below but these require a little explanation. My first thread was for the 2005 flat season, this was followed by the 05/06 jumps, the 06 flat, the 06/07 jumps, the 07 flat & the 07/08 jumps. In 08 I had a thread for the flat & my "Flying Dutchman" thread, this was a project that I was working on but I had found by the end of June that I could not keep up to both threads so one had to go. I decided to stop the flat 08 thread, the returns for this are in red below, the reason for this is that some of the selections were duplicated in both threads but not staked twice, the final total at the bottom contains none of this profit shown in red. I then continued through the 08/09 jumps & the 09 flat with the Flying Dutchman thread, this was a mistake, I admitted so at the time & still do & I should have returned to my usual ways. From 2010 I started my current thread, this departed from the original selections with reasoning format. The reason for this was twofold. Firstly there were many more threads in the with reasoning style from other posters. Secondly at this point in my life I had had a change of circumstances, I now found myself going racing far more often with a racing club I had joined which allowed me to be in effect an owner. I thought that this would possibly be of interest to others if I made this more a diary/blog style thread, with selections included. The 757 posts in this thread have to date had 34.723 views, it has been nominated for a PL Oscar for the last three years & voted for one this year. I believe that shows that my thoughts were correct. Because this was an open ended thread with no seasonal breaks the returns in it carried on, this is why the returns below show 2010 to Feb 2012. At this point again my circumstances changed & I needed to re-set the bank because I wanted a years returns from that point. The final entry is Feb 2013 to date, this includes the Cheltenham ante post bets placed before the re-set but run after. Am I concerned by the deficit? a little, but the main part of the flat season is upon us & I will reserve judgement until I see where I am around St Leger time. A final thought before the numbers. With my new circumstances freeing more time I decided to enter the BBOTD thread from the start of this year. I hadn't done so before because with the time constraints on me I did not think I'd be able to meet the required bets. I note that I am currently 5th in the overall table with a profit of £24.00. What I do find pleasing, there I go getting emotional again, is that I have shown a profit in four of the first five months. Not too bad for a loser, just think what could happen if I actually started winning. 05 flat Profit/loss +184.5pts 05/06 jumps Profit/Loss +1072.31pts 06 flat Profit/loss +35.57pts 06/07 jumps Profit/loss -529.62 07 flat Profit/loss -573pts 07/08 jumps Profit/loss +439pts 08 flat Profit/loss +144.45pts Profit/Loss +359.91pts 08/09 jumps Profit/Loss -555pts 09 flat Profit/Loss -490pts 2010 to Feb 2012 Profit/Loss +613.28pts Feb 2012 to Feb 2013 P/L +1062.72pts 2013 to date P/L -971.91pts Total profit +647.76 Rio.

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Be Nice!!

Nice is my middle name ;) Sorry about the slow reply,had to sort something out, work tends to get in the way sometimes :lol I cocked up with the questions 2/3 I was looking for 1 or the other as if you think about it one method contradicts the other. Ill generalize my answers rather than try and write out 1 each 1/ have you ever charted fixed stakes against fixed profits from your results as a visual example can show more than just numbers do . I find less volatility in backing @ fixed profit and it also raises my P.O.T (profit on turnover) as I couldn't for the life of me justify putting the same stake on a 6/4 shot compared to an 8/1 shot, basic maths tells you its a no no. Overstaking v understaking is one of the biggest causes of profit loss among the punters I have spoken too over the years on open message boards and private ones. Slapdash seems to be the resident maths whizz on the board, maybe a mod could ask him to knock up an idiots guide fixed odds v fixed stake example Im sure he could explain it better than myself and it would be appreciated by the masses I would imagine. 2/ At least you think its the best horse in the race which eliminates a lot of umming and arring when it comes to backing it, a good start for a datum from which you can gauge consistency in your selections from which you can get a reasonable idea of the odds range you work in,betting bank required,level of risk v reward etc. Once you have established the consistency of your selections and have a reasonable shape and overview you have a base to work from. Slight modifications to this can help profits , using a loosely based Pareto principle that approx 80% of your profits will come from an approx 20% range in your selection process, you can chip away at the tail end of this and your profits should rise. 3/ I call this the butterfly effect flitting from one flower to the next hoping to find pollen. Indecision is rife, youve done your tissue you look at the odds...I think horse a will win but oooh horse b's bigger than my tissue..value ...oooh wait a minute horse b's come in now and horse d's the value one..oooh d's come in now b's the value one again still dont think it will win but I'll back it anyway its value .....Oh no horse a's won..said it would but couldnt back it at that price and as long as I back the value horse I'll win in the long run. Dear oh dear a recipe for disaster, nothing to base anything off, your 'value ' horse can be any depending on what time of day you look at the prices. Zero consistency to base anything from correctly. You have no idea of the betting bank needed, losing runs of biblical proportions and your funds disappear quicker than the Titanic's funnels (imo that is). Not only are you assuming (rightly or wrongly) that your tissue is not only a better indication to the horses winning chance but also the bookmakers have the price that far out that youve beaten the overound with your extra 5 or 10% profit margin thrown in as well. The stats Ive put up from bookies prices show that is not the case. 4/The reason I asked this is you might have the data at hand ,if not its a worthwhile exercise keeping it and just putting nb (no bet) in the results column. Reason being if you want to try out small changes etc some of these no bets may have become bets which whether winners or losers would alter your stats for the trial and therefore mess up the accuracy of your profit/loss or S/R results. Kithanga You might want to set up a value table like the example here (pages 8 & 9) to see where your most profitable or where your leaking money

[The Saint]

Re: Where's my profit gone? Thanks Machine - I'll have a look through this evening - or maybe the next looking at the Fixture List for tomorrow!!! :eek

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Nice is my middle name ;) Sorry about the slow reply,had to sort something out, work tends to get in the way sometimes :lol I cocked up with the questions 2/3 I was looking for 1 or the other as if you think about it one method contradicts the other. Ill generalize my answers rather than try and write out 1 each 1/ have you ever charted fixed stakes against fixed profits from your results as a visual example can show more than just numbers do . I find less volatility in backing @ fixed profit and it also raises my P.O.T (profit on turnover) as I couldn't for the life of me justify putting the same stake on a 6/4 shot compared to an 8/1 shot, basic maths tells you its a no no. Overstaking v understaking is one of the biggest causes of profit loss among the punters I have spoken too over the years on open message boards and private ones. Slapdash seems to be the resident maths whizz on the board, maybe a mod could ask him to knock up an idiots guide fixed odds v fixed stake example Im sure he could explain it better than myself and it would be appreciated by the masses I would imagine. 2/ At least you think its the best horse in the race which eliminates a lot of umming and arring when it comes to backing it, a good start for a datum from which you can gauge consistency in your selections from which you can get a reasonable idea of the odds range you work in,betting bank required,level of risk v reward etc. Once you have established the consistency of your selections and have a reasonable shape and overview you have a base to work from. Slight modifications to this can help profits , using a loosely based Pareto principle that approx 80% of your profits will come from an approx 20% range in your selection process, you can chip away at the tail end of this and your profits should rise. 3/ I call this the butterfly effect flitting from one flower to the next hoping to find pollen. Indecision is rife, youve done your tissue you look at the odds...I think horse a will win but oooh horse b's bigger than my tissue..value ...oooh wait a minute horse b's come in now and horse d's the value one..oooh d's come in now b's the value one again still dont think it will win but I'll back it anyway its value .....Oh no horse a's won..said it would but couldnt back it at that price and as long as I back the value horse I'll win in the long run. Dear oh dear a recipe for disaster, nothing to base anything off, your 'value ' horse can be any depending on what time of day you look at the prices. Zero consistency to base anything from correctly. You have no idea of the betting bank needed, losing runs of biblical proportions and your funds disappear quicker than the Titanic's funnels (imo that is). Not only are you assuming (rightly or wrongly) that your tissue is not only a better indication to the horses winning chance but also the bookmakers have the price that far out that youve beaten the overound with your extra 5 or 10% profit margin thrown in as well. The stats Ive put up from bookies prices show that is not the case. 4/The reason I asked this is you might have the data at hand ,if not its a worthwhile exercise keeping it and just putting nb (no bet) in the results column. Reason being if you want to try out small changes etc some of these no bets may have become bets which whether winners or losers would alter your stats for the trial and therefore mess up the accuracy of your profit/loss or S/R results. Kithanga You might want to set up a value table like the example here (pages 8 & 9) to see where your most profitable or where your leaking money

Interested in your first point, possible stupid question, but by fixed profit do you mean staking an amount so the profit is the same if either bet won, for example, £20 on 2/1, £10 on 4/1 etc? Why does basic math tell you not to put the same on a 6/4 or an 8/1? Apologies again if this is a stupid question. Get the impression you bet purely based on stats/systems etc and think 'value' punting is a load of b*llocks. I tend to agree with you about tissues and the change of price at different times of the day but I'm sure tissue people would say the very change in price would change their perception of value, e.g. horse from this stable huge drifter, huge negative etc. Woud love to see this discussion if Ginge was still on here :lol

[Binchy]

Re: Where's my profit gone? Rio, As a relative newcomer to this forum I can honestly say that the first thread I look out for is your racing diary. I stumbled across when having a mooch around the forum about a week after joining and I find it throughly enjoyable reading, so much so that I read it from page 1 all the way through! I'm sure i'm not alone in saying keep up the good work and don't feel that you need to justify yourself to other forum members. :ok

[The Saint]

Rio, As a relative newcomer to this forum I can honestly say that the first thread I look out for is your racing diary. I stumbled across when having a mooch around the forum about a week after joining and I find it throughly enjoyable reading, so much so that I read it from page 1 all the way through! I'm sure i'm not alone in saying keep up the good work and don't feel that you need to justify yourself to other forum members. :ok

Well said :)

[Kithanga]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

I have no wish to hijack this thread however I feel I must make a response to yesterdays events. I'm still trying to see where I had a dig at Machine which caused the reaction. What I've also been trying to see is evidence of the profit he claims from 95 onwards. I can see his A.I.D.E.s back football thread in the Systems & strategy which is indeed in profit, well done. In terms of horse racing I can't see that Machine has had his own thread. There are occasional posts in threads such as the Scottish Grand National, the Oaks & the Saturday lucky 15 thread but nothing that appears to give any evidence of long term profits. I've been a PL member for a long time, I've been looking back at my threads in ATR & my returns I will post below but these require a little explanation. My first thread was for the 2005 flat season, this was followed by the 05/06 jumps, the 06 flat, the 06/07 jumps, the 07 flat & the 07/08 jumps. In 08 I had a thread for the flat & my "Flying Dutchman" thread, this was a project that I was working on but I had found by the end of June that I could not keep up to both threads so one had to go. I decided to stop the flat 08 thread, the returns for this are in red below, the reason for this is that some of the selections were duplicated in both threads but not staked twice, the final total at the bottom contains none of this profit shown in red. I then continued through the 08/09 jumps & the 09 flat with the Flying Dutchman thread, this was a mistake, I admitted so at the time & still do & I should have returned to my usual ways. From 2010 I started my current thread, this departed from the original selections with reasoning format. The reason for this was twofold. Firstly there were many more threads in the with reasoning style from other posters. Secondly at this point in my life I had had a change of circumstances, I now found myself going racing far more often with a racing club I had joined which allowed me to be in effect an owner. I thought that this would possibly be of interest to others if I made this more a diary/blog style thread, with selections included. The 757 posts in this thread have to date had 34.723 views, it has been nominated for a PL Oscar for the last three years & voted for one this year. I believe that shows that my thoughts were correct. Because this was an open ended thread with no seasonal breaks the returns in it carried on, this is why the returns below show 2010 to Feb 2012. At this point again my circumstances changed & I needed to re-set the bank because I wanted a years returns from that point. The final entry is Feb 2013 to date, this includes the Cheltenham ante post bets placed before the re-set but run after. Am I concerned by the deficit? a little, but the main part of the flat season is upon us & I will reserve judgement until I see where I am around St Leger time. A final thought before the numbers. With my new circumstances freeing more time I decided to enter the BBOTD thread from the start of this year. I hadn't done so before because with the time constraints on me I did not think I'd be able to meet the required bets. I note that I am currently 5th in the overall table with a profit of £24.00. What I do find pleasing, there I go getting emotional again, is that I have shown a profit in four of the first five months. Not too bad for a loser, just think what could happen if I actually started winning. 05 flat Profit/loss +184.5pts 05/06 jumps Profit/Loss +1072.31pts 06 flat Profit/loss +35.57pts 06/07 jumps Profit/loss -529.62 07 flat Profit/loss -573pts 07/08 jumps Profit/loss +439pts 08 flat Profit/loss +144.45pts Profit/Loss +359.91pts 08/09 jumps Profit/Loss -555pts 09 flat Profit/Loss -490pts 2010 to Feb 2012 Profit/Loss +613.28pts Feb 2012 to Feb 2013 P/L +1062.72pts 2013 to date P/L -971.91pts Total profit +647.76 Rio.

Great results those Rio, keep it up mate

[Machine]

Re: Where's my profit gone?

Interested in your first point, possible stupid question, but by fixed profit do you mean staking an amount so the profit is the same if either bet won, for example, £20 on 2/1, £10 on 4/1 etc?

No I stake for a fixed return (some call it dutching same thing) No for a 30 stake as above 18.75 on the 2/1 and 11.25 on the 4/1 Either returns 56.25 But yes for fixed return your example is correct ( sorry I was thinking you meant if I had 2 selections in a race)

Why does basic math tell you not to put the same on a 6/4 or an 8/1? Apologies again if this is a stupid question

. 6/4 = 40% chance of success 8/1 = 11% chance of success I know which one Id prefer the most money on ;)

Get the impression you bet purely based on stats/systems etc and think 'value' punting is a load of b*llocks. I tend to agree with you about tissues and the change of price at different times of the day but I'm sure tissue people would say the very change in price would change their perception of value, e.g. horse from this stable huge drifter, huge negative etc.

Yes stats only,the only thing I know or need to know about horses is one end eats grass Im in the same camp as yourself,If someone asked me why I backed horse x in a 8-14 runner open age h/caps, Id reply If its in the first 5 of the betting (win approx 70% of races),first 5 of the weights(win approx 40% of the time),odds less than number of runners (win 75% of the time) and its the only contender its my bet regardless, as the selection is statistically the one from each group which win the most races,If you ask a value punter how they came about theres its all smoke & mirrors and all that malarkey, I think Aidy said it in the Hcp thread you can find value in every race but if it doesnt win it doesnt matter. If they want to play at being Pricewise its no skin off my nose good luck to them.

love to see this discussion if Ginge was still on here :lol

Now now :lol Though he would agree with me about the second point