Flat Racing 1st May

[bowles10]

I'm off to Ascot for the afternoon, selections to come

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May 3.35 Sagaro stakes Group 3 a few of these can be ruled on the stats that you need a win at 14f+ and listed or Group win so this leaves former winner Askar Tau, Caucus, Tres Rock DAnon and Estimate. Askar Tau normally requires a run as do most of Tregonings horses but he has made a decent start to the season 4-17 with also 4 seconds. Caucus is an interesting prospect having won LTO at the end of last season. Estimate has won here also as well and could be the horse that improves this year in the Gold Cup races. The German Raider Tres Rock Danon is no mug either and is a group performer at these distances. Estimate won twice on soft ground last season and maybe needs the cut to be effective. On that basis i am gearing towards the German horse and Caucus.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May 4,45 Ascot I have 4 to look at here, Rockalong, Chapter & Verse, Shifting star and Frog Hollow. Shifting star is certainly worthy here of a mention having won here twice but that was over shorter distance. Hasnt raced since December which is unusual as raced all through 2012 and perhaps the trainer felt it needed a break so unsure how fit it will be 1st time up. You have to go back 4 years since Chapter & Verse won on the turf but has been consistent on the AW all season, and with Hughes in the saddle should get a true run here. Frog Hollow may come up short here now trained by Milton Bradley i am not convinced this one without dropping in the weights here. Favourite ROCKALONG has been raised 5lb and is the one to beat here as is the type of horse Cumani improves and i expect we could see it again in one of the Royal Ascot handicaps if it wins here tomorrow. Rockalong and Shifting Star to chase it home at a decent price

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May I like Earth Amber in the Sagaro.............EW, currently best price around 9/1 Nicky Henderson French import who's finished 2nd to solid group race performers the last twice, should be suited by the extra 2 furlongs and has only had 4 lifetime runs Ran a bit green on seasonal/British debut a couple of weeks ago and could be a big improver (I was typing it on BBotD when the best price crumbled from 12/1 to 9/1 so I dumped the post)

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May Shifting Star has never stayed 8f, went close once when they went steady, so over a testing 8f like at Ascot in a big field where they should go an honest gallop I'll be shocked if he stays. John Bridger's turf reappearers have needed the run this year also. I'll also be surprised if you cant get a bigger price tomorrow morning than what he is now. I agree about Rockalong though, form of his win lto looks really solid now with plenty coming out of it. I'd rarely say this, but at 11/4 in a 20 runner field handicap there may be a touch of value in that price. Would rather back something bigger each way though. Chapter And Verse is best over 7f, was waiting for about 2 years for them to drop him to that trip, form over 7 is very consistent. Toga Tiger won quite nicely lto, didnt beat much but effectively only 1lb higher, 10s probably about fair. Twenty One Choice looks about right at 6s, smart performance lto but nowhere near as smart as Rockalong and 8lb higher, cant discount but doesnt look a wrong price. Couple of lively outsiders I like, Kaafel at 25/1 is my main fancy. Ian Mongan coming for the one ride, hasnt been inspiring in recent starts but has had excuses. We know he'll stay and the visor goes on for the first time. Conditions not a problem and fairly handicapped, only 1lb higher than last win. Would like to see Good Authority over 7f, similar horse to Chaper And Verse, but didnt shape badly on reappearance. Handicapped to go close and although may be one for next time out, 22/1 is a big price. Just rambling out loud here, gl all.

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May 15.00 Ascot: Stipulate, 7/2 BetVictor, win Stipulate finished second in a group 3 lto on his seasonal reappearance. He showed a decent turn of foot to go to the lead 2f out but he was outstayed by Mull Of Killough over 9f. He drops back to a mile today which should suit. He should come on a bit for that run. He finished 2½L ahead of the re-opposing Boom And Bust and he should confirm that form today. His only run at Ascot came over 10f when he finished second in a group 3. Sir Henry Cecil is in decent form with 3 winners and 10 places from 23 runners in the last two weeks. He has a good record at Ascot and this is his only runner of the day. Tom Queally has been on board for both of this horse's wins. 15.35 Ascot: Steps To Freedom, 11/2 BetVictor, win Steps To Freedom has had two runs so far this year. He started at Dundalk when he won very easily over 10f. He was about 10L off the lead with 2½f to run but he made up the distance with ease and won nicely by 4¼L. He didn't beat much that day, although three of the five that finished behind him have won since. He finished third lto in a listed race, again over 10f. He finished just 2L behind group 1 winner Parish Hall. He ran quite well but didn't have the speed to go with the impressive winner. He steps up in trip to 2 miles which will suit as he is a grade 2 winner over hurdles and won two NHF races, including the Listed Bumper at Aintree. He also won over 2 miles on the a/w at Dundalk in a handicap when he was giving away over a stone to the rest of the field and won by 4½L. Trainer Jessie Harrington is in decent form with 2 winners, including a 20/1 shot, and 3 places from 11 runners over the last two weeks. Champion jockey Richard Hughes is an eye catching booking. He rode 33 winners last month, including 11 from his last 17 rides, and is already 7 wins clear of his nearest rival in this years jockey's championship. 16.10 Ascot: Snow King, 6/1 BetVictor, win Snow King was last seen at Santa Anita on the undercard for the Breeders Cup. I wrote this before that run;

17.35 Santa Anita: Snow King' date= 4/1 Bet365, win Snow King won on debut lto over 7f at Ascot. The form of that race has worked out very well, with second and third winning nicely nto. Four other subsequent winners have come out of that race including group 3 winner Tawhid. He is closely related to group 3 winner Evasive. This is John Gosden's only runner at Santa Anita today and is William Buick's only ride.

He was a bit disappointing that day but excuses can be made and now he is back to a track where he has form he should go well. He won his maiden fto and as his trainer is in decent form he should run well on his first start this season. He finished a short head in front of Derby favourite Telescope in his maiden. He drops back to 6f today but it should suit as he showed a great turn of foot on his racecourse debut. Today's ground will suit. John Gosden has 5 winners from 24 runners over the last two weeks and he has a decent record at Ascot. The top class William Buick is in the saddle.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May Shifting star is a non runner anyway in the last race now.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May 4.45 Ascot Rockalong is gonna be popular after his impressive victory at Kempton last time out and Cruiser helped boost that form yesterday, and Lowther and Forceful Appeal winning next time out aswell. A 5lb rise looks extremely lenient but he clearly relishes the polytrack surface and one try on soft ground was poor but cant be judged to harshly on that given that was his debut and over 1m2f. But perhaps slightly risky at a very short price of 11/4. Toga Tiger has improved over the last year and picked up where he left off last season on the AW this winter picking up a further 3 wins, a further 6lb higher and now 22lb higher than last turf win, this is the most competitive race he has competed in and would prefer faster ground probably. Chapter and Verse is another that looks rather short given he is better known for his exploits on the AW and he can be tricky to win with he needs everything to fall right and not sure a big field like this that is gonna happen but should atleast get a strongly run race and does race off a 10lb lower turf mark. I am gonna stick with the unexposed Twenty One Choice who has won 4 of his 8 starts and they are his last 4 starts including one on turf. Appeared to come back from a break last time out better than ever winning comfortably over 7f at Kempton, an 8lb rise clearly demands more but he looks open to more improvement yet and handicapper is struggling to catch him. A return to a mile shouldn’t be a problem and he looks one to stay on side of this summer. 1pt e/w Twenty one Choice 7/1 vc

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May 3.35 Ascot - 2pts win Sir Graham Wade @ 11/2 (Hills) Mark Johnston's runner may have disappointed on his seasonal reappearance but it's worth noting that he was beaten 18 1/2l on his return the year prior in a maiden where he was sent off at the same price of 9/4. Following that effort, he won his maiden on unsuitable soft ground on his next start and I'm hopeful that he can quickly bounce back again in 2013. He progressed stylishly up the ranks last season when increasingly stepped up in trip, culminating in a game victory at Doncaster over the St Leger trip off a mark of 102, taking on his elders. He ran a good 2nd at Ascot in a listed event and won on heavy over in Nantes to cap off a successful season. However, both of those were with cut in the ground and he seems a better horse on quicker. His four handicap wins last season came on a sound surface so today's conditions suit. He stays well, and has a solid chance on official ratings as the top two have a bit to prove and are coming back from absences. Many of these may be lacking in fitness but with that Nottingham run under his belt, I fancy Kieren Fallon's charge to go much better today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May 4.30 Pontefract - 1pt win Kuantan One @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes) Paul Cole's runners are showing a few more signs of life in the past week or two and his runner here looks better than an 11/1 shot to me if forgiving his effort on his seasonal return. He was beaten 4 1/2l over this trip at Beverley but just looked like he was in need of the run on his first appearance since November. Last year he showed plenty of potential in maidens - running okay on debut on heavy ground at York before staying on well twice over a mile on the all-weather. The 2nd of those starts, at Kempton, saw him run out a 2 3/4l victor having made all. The runner-up easily won its maiden next time out to be rated 75 and the third is now rated 88 so there's plenty of substance to the form. My selection runs off 76 today and although he faded over this trip last time it should be well within his compass. His mark is perfectly fair on that polytrack evidence and there's plenty of stamina on his dam's side. With fitness now on his side and with Graham Lee on board (2-4 for the yard) as well as Paul Cole sending a couple of runners up to Pontefract, a big run can be anticipated.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May 5.00 Pontefract - 2pts win Sand Boy @ 7/1 (Bet365) Charles Hills' horses are starting to hit top gear and that's a potential excuse for this one's run a couple of weeks ago as the yard's horses were just looking like they needed the run - for all this one was returning from just two months off the track rather than the whole winter. That run came on soft ground at Windsor and he ran perfectly well to finish 4th considering he was forced very wide and not much was finishing from off the pace in the race. The ground is a plausible excuse as well and the race was a good 0-85 affair won by a horse running off that ceiling mark. Prior to that effort, he was sent off a short price when disappointing in a muddling affair at Kempton (front two dominated) but had hacked up in a maiden before that. If getting a good gallop today he'll be seen to better effect with the quicker ground and testing track in his favour. The yard are in top form now and he drops into a 0-75 here. Not ideally drawn but this is probably the most suitable race he's been entered in since his maiden victory and should go well.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May *Estimate > Ascot 3:35 > WIN @ 11/4 Bet365 BOG* Hard to see past the Queen's horse in this race in my opinion. Has clearly the best form in the book, winning a Group 3 at Ascot by 5 lengths, 3rd to Wild Coco at Goodwood, and again 3rd to Wild Coco in a Group 2 at Donny when last seen. Biggest danger is probably Caucus, who is unexposed and won a Listed race at Newmarket very easily when last seen.

[Lodge]

Not really had too much time for racing of late but I backed 2 ew in the last race at Ascot today. The first was Frog Hollow @ 20/1 (now 16 at best) like BB has already pointed out he has run better than his form suggests on occasions and could be well handicapped on the best of his form. The other was Tigers Tale @ 14/1 but he seems to have been week in the market this morning. He was pretty progressive last year and he ran well enough on his seasonal return to suggest to me he could take this.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 1st May had a good day at ascot today, loads of sunshine and a good afternoon out with my dad my dad knows some of the racing crowd so was good to speak with some of those guys from the press etc I managed to put a few together and Rockalomg made all the difference. I chose Caucus over Estimate which meant i had less take home money !! Good they do these "free" days, probably about 20,000 down there today